The bid to host football’s World Cup has given rise to a crisis in the ranks of the AFL and NRL, with both bodies having to put on a public display of supporting the bid, while trying to work out the hypothetical gains and losses the tournament.
With the Federal government reportedly spending $75 million to support the bid, the stakes are high, and the two major domestic codes face some anxious calculations in weighing the balance sheet.
The AFL has already made it clear that Etihad Stadium will not be offered to FIFA as part of the bid, although whether it can sustain that stance in the face of the Federal government will be interesting to see.
The threat of having to close down a competition for upwards of eight weeks would inevitably mean that compensation would have to be paid, and of course everything has its price.
But the longer-term issue is how well the two domestic codes would be positioned to prosper after the World Cup has come and gone.
The AFL is bigger than the NRL, and it appears to have potentially the most to lose from any upsurge in support for soccer.
The NRL will benefit from an investment around the country in rectangular stadiums, including probably a new 40,000 capacity stadium at Campbelltown suitable for the Wests Tigers.
Similar improvements would probably be made to stadiums in other NRL towns like Canberra, Wollongong Townsville and Newcastle, while improvements to stadiums in Adelaide and Perth would present the NRL with an opportunity to move into those markets after the tournament ended.
The AFL wouldn’t benefit from any of that investment, however, and I can fully understand why Andrew Demetriou is more or less making clear his opposition to the World Cup.
Even while the tournament was taking place, the NRL, with its suburban Sydney venues, would be able to carry on if those stadiums were not used as training venues for the World Cup, which appears at least to be a possibility.
The NRL might also be in a position to take matches across the ditch to New Zealand, to play matches in cities like Hamilton, Wellington, Christchurch and Dunedin, effectively promoting their code in NZ while the World Cup is played in Australia. There probably isn’t sufficient support in NZ for the AFL to do the same thing.
So on balance I can see how the NRL might support the bid, but the AFL wouldn’t.
On the other hand, both codes could lose out if the World Cup results in them losing supporters to football.
Both codes faced the same issue with the 2003 rugby World Cup, but in the long-term rugby wasn’t able to take advantage of the upsurge in interest.
Whether soccer can do better than that will be interesting to see.
NCB619
Guest
Surely there is an adequate break to do the developments in stages during the NRL off-season, as it seems absolutely nothing is done at ANZ during this time (I.E. do the seating developments one summer, and the roof the next, or something like that)
NCB619
Guest
And it's still another 8-12 years until a 2 month break would be constituted...plenty of things can happen in this time. I'll leave you all to speculate in what could happen.
Springs
Guest
The Knights CEO has said that a two month break would send the Knights broke. State of Origin generates 25 million annually, then there are gate takings, membership, corporate sponsors, food and beverage, merchandise, signage and jumper sponsors.
pete
Guest
Why would the FFA pay the NRL $100M? FFA could instead buy 8-10 NRL clubs for that money! Russell Crowe paid $3.5M to takeover the Rabbitohs a few years back. Anyway in the June period they would normally get 15k crowd to a game on a good day. State of Origin matches are played 3 weeks apart in May, June, July (moving these games to an earlier/later time in the year is the only issue)
Tifosi
Guest
Any compensation wont be coming from FIFA. Why would they host it here if that was the case? Compensation would come from the federal/state govt. Which means in effect you and I the taxpayer. Seems the NRL wants 100 million. Small change really. Where is my cheque book !!
Paul J
Guest
As a league fan I'm not a huge fan of "socca". But i think it would be fantastic to have the WC in Australia. If we get the WC it will make stupid amounts of money so surely the NRL & AFL can let FIFA know how much they would potentially lose for their games that are moved and get compensation.
Art Sapphire
Guest
Hold you horses Compo Man - the 2004 Asian Cup was staged in China was only held in 4 venues. Unlike the WC the tournament requires fewer venues as there are half as many games played. FYI - little Qatar is hosting it in 2011.
$1 Billion Compensation for AFL/NRL
Guest
If they try to play the Asian Cup in Winter - and cause more disruption to the AFL/NRL - they can forget wringing any concessions out of the AFL/NRL for the World Cup bid. That would mean, potentially, the 2015, 2017 and 2018 seasons would all be disrupted by mid-Winter Soccer tournaments! No thank you.
Michael C
Roar Guru
so,...FIFA is an all conquering empire.....and that means we should just roll over and play dead?? funny though you say what you did, I heard a news story about the Copenhagen summit and how the world's most powerful man came along,..... ....and I'm thinking Wen Jiabao, or Bill Gates, or ....Sepp Blatter,.... stay with me here,.......apparently it was the US President. ;-)
BigAl
Guest
This sounds like Pip's arguement for NOT having the WC here ! If it is true you'd have to be mad not to sympathise with him .
AndyRoo
Roar Guru
Adelaide oval won't go ahead without the World Cup. The 150m from the Commonwealth Government of Australia is only coming if the World Cup bid gets up.
Mr
Guest
Do you think FIFA has become the largest and wealthiest sporting body globally by running scared of other sports? Governments run scared from FIFA (Iraq and Chile most recently). FIFA will conquer a frontier if it exists - this is playing into the hands of our bid. This parochial little discussion is keeping our bid on the sports pages around the world.
Michael C
Roar Guru
You'd do all the stadium redevelopment work over summer wouldn't you - and put a stop to the HAL season. Only fair.
Michael C
Roar Guru
FIFA cares a truckload about the FIFA WC, they derive about 90% of their revenue from it. If they have any doubts about Australia - - and that might include AFL/NRL exemptions - - then FIFA would be hopeful it doesn't go there, however, it IS a vote though by delegates isn't it?? I still just reckon the bid is doomed to failure if for no other reason - than that the FFA is unilaterally organising it, but, requires multl-lateral concessions and compromise from the other codes in ways that are pretty unfair to ask of anyone in a competitive environment.
Mr
Guest
In the case of a winning bid, some of the stadia would have to be at WC standard by 2017 or 2021 for the Confederations Cup. This tournament does not use all 12 stadiums. It's also worth noting that Australia is the sole bidder for the 2015 Asian Cup which will use stadiums along the eastern seaboard. There is debate as to whether this tournament will be played in summer or winter.
Springs
Guest
So the NRL will have to endure the rebuilding of their stadiums before the Cup, disrupting either the season or the season before, and then downgrading the stadiums causing further disruption to the season or the season after. Newcastle and Wollongong are already upgrading their stadiums, Newcastle to at least 33,000 and maybe 40,000 afterwards. And why would Belmore need a new upgrade when the Bulldogs can play out of the new ANZ Stadium that will have a very relevant roof? And don't listen to Phil Rothfield, he has no idea.
$1 Billion Compensation for AFL/NRL
Guest
Hang on, the new Adelaide Oval redevelopments are going ahead with or without the World Cup - for the long-term tenants, Adelaide Crows, SA Redbacks and Port Adelaide Power. How is the World Cup bringing this to fruition in any sense at all? No benefit to the AFL in Adelaide, who knows about the Gold Coast, and any redevelopment in Perth will also go ahead with or without the World Cup? Tell me where the benefit is there for the AFL? These are things that are going to happen anyway (Adelaide & Perth) or we don't know yet (Gold Coast). AFL should be very careful not to sign a blank cheque - it is monetary compensation they should be after, not contra deals on stadiums that will be built anyway.
ren
Guest
any rectangular ground in perth will be an upgraded perth oval (which is actually rectangular) with a capacity of around 25000. anything larger will be primarily oval shaped for the simple reason only one sport has the capacity to fill such a stadium week in week out- football.
sheek
Guest
Or to paraphrase a famous line from the famous movie 'Shawshank Redemption' - be obtuse. This is an awkward situation for AFL & NRL. Sure, why should they go out of their way to accommodate another rival football code? But is it wise to rattle the cage of the FFA, or more precisely, FIFA? FIFA care more about the world game than they do Australia, but if they come to view Australia as the "last frontier", you can be sure they will approach the football conquer of Australia with evangelical zeal. And that would spell a heap of trouble for AFL & NRL. Besides, I think there's been too much 'hot air', & not enough thought into how the other codes might realign their seasons.
formeropenside
Guest
I dont understand why the NRL or AFL would even pretend to support the bid. Be obstructive - its not your game, and cant help your game.