Norm Smith Medallist, Paul Chapman of Geelong, celebrates after winning the 2009 Toyota AFL Grand Final between the St Kilda Saints and the Geelong Cats at the MCG. The Slattery Media Group
As we draw closer to the start of season 2010, we look at the big questions being asked in the AFL, including the most important of them all.
Does Geelong need to win this year’s premiership to be rated with the best sides of all time?
They do. Three in four years will put the Cats right up there with the very best. While it is difficult to compare eras – some regard it as impossible – two premierships surely puts you in the ‘good’ category. To be ‘great’, the Cats need to climb the mountain again this year. Many of their stars show no sign of slowing down, and the club’s envious depth is no secret. A third flag will confirm their status as an all-time super team.
Will we see lower scores in 2010?
There is no definite data to suggest so, but there is no doubt coaches are more defensively minded. It’s a mantra in basketball to start from the defence to build attack. Don’t expect to see too many big bags in games involving Adelaide and Sydney. But, with the likes of Fevola, Brown, Franklin and Riewoldt running around, hopefully there are not too many low-scoring scraps this season.
Will the bench debate and player welfare resurface?
No doubt. But that doesn’t mean more numbers should be added to the bench. Four is sufficient, and it should stay that way. Coaches have often criticised the amount available on the bench after a loss – especially Mick Malthouse, who believes a team who loses a player to injury early in the match is severely disadvantaged. That may be so, but life isn’t always perfect. Back in 1993, there was just one interchange player. The game is faster today and, as a result, the numbers on the bench have been increased. But if it continues, there may as well be no selection on a Thursday night – just put the whole list out on the ground to give coaches the comfort that they have enough in reserve.
A good player versus a good clubman?
Luke Ball was, basically, made to leave to Saints after receiving limited game-time throughout the season and in the Grand Final. St.Kilda then recruited Andrew Lovett to give the side some added speed in the midfield. Lovett is now gone, pending appeal, and is facing charges and a court date while Ball, a player with no prior disciplinary issues, will be looking to help Collingwood have a successful year. Ball, in his own right, is a fine player. But the Saints thought Lovett would add more to their set-up when they recruited him from Essendon and it has backfired. Do clubs simply consider ability? Or is there more to it? How important is ‘character’ when you are aspiring to win the premiership?
Finally, and most importantly: Who will win the premiership?
No one knows the answer to this question at this stage of the season. But we all like to have a guess. St.Kilda and the Dogs have two flags between them in their respective histories, so no one, I’m sure, would begrudge success for that pairing when it arrives. But, Geelong, in my opinion, remains the best of the best. The Cats have the best player in the competition, Gary Ablett Jr, and another five who would comfortably rate in the league’s top-20 players – Paul Chapman, Matthew Scarlett, Joel Selwood, Jimmy Bartel and Corey Enright. It is a star-studded team.
Redb
Roar Guru
is this the same Al? :-) I dont think Jono Brown has a massive ego, Fev yes. It's more how will the structure work and will Fev get in Brownies way. The smoky in your 8 is definitely North, I think Port Adelaide has more juice than North this year. it has been suggested Essendon will suffer without Lloyd and Lucas, but if you look at the stats (and watched the games) , these forwards played less of a part in the Bomber 2009 season than many realise. The return of David Hille to free up Ryder is crucial. It still gives us a chance to make the 8 but not Top 4, but will concede we could finish as low 10-11th if injuries and form evaporate in the second half with what is still a young list. I'd be happy just to see Gumbleton get on the ground without tripping over the player race and breaking his leg. :-)
Redb
Roar Guru
Agree. The FNF game last year between Carlton and St kilda was brilliant with Judd's broken nose, they way he came back on to help out the Blues, it was a great game full of drama. http://www.theage.com.au/ffximage/2009/06/14/svJUDD.jpg
Tom
Guest
Maybe exciting on TV. When you're at the ground you don't necessarily realise if someone is injured and can't play again.
Luke D'Anello
Roar Guru
Don't know if too many people would like the 'swap' idea, but it has been mentioned. I personally love seeing a team win against the odds (for example with two or three injured players), and it has happened many times before. Those matches are as exciting as any, and show how far determination and a will to win can get you.
Tom
Guest
Not sure it really needs to stop anywhere to be honest. I don't really see any major harm with having twelve or thirteen players on the bench. Might make it more confusing for a bit, but people would adapt. Another option is to have a substitutes bench as well as an interchange bench. Three players who could swap for starting 22 players at any time, like in soccer. This would reduce the impact of injuries on the game, allow players coming back from injury to get back some match fitness by playing a quarter or a half without disrupting the team's rotations, and would make for some interesting final quarters as some fresh players could come off the bench towards the end. It's also the most effective way I can think of to reduce the incentive for teams to keep injured players on the field near the end of close games. This is the really concerning part of the current system. Too often players are finishing games with injuries, increasing the chances of them getting hurt even worse. But I suspect there'd be too much resistance from the purists for a subs bench. Plus I don't know of any sport that has both interchange and substitutions. There might be problems with it I can't see right now.
Luke D'Anello
Roar Guru
You should post that as an article on the site, Al. Very comprehensive. Well-made point, Tom, but do you really think four is not enough to have in reserve? If we keep adding to the bench, where will it stop?
Al
Guest
Al's predictions: Premiers: Doggies Wooden Spoon: Tigers Norm Smith: Cooney Coleman: Riewoldt (80 to 90 goals being enough to win it this year) Rising Star: Trengove Most Improved Player: Gray Brownlow: J. Selwood Who should win the brownlow but wont: Higgins, M.Murphy When will we see Richmond supporters tearing up their memberships?: Round 1 Will Fev and Brown work: Occassionally but not as planned, Two massive egos in too much of a confined space Top 8 at end of H&A season 1. Saints (Once again will dominate the H&A but lose in either a prelim or the big one, play too many games at the smaller Etihad, their full zone press style game not as effective at the larger MCG and against teams that like to run and have speed like the Dogs) 2. Dogs (Finally have the power forward they've always needed, if his brain doesn't explode and players like Higgins, Murphy and Cooney don't get injured, they'll win the whole thing) 3. Cats (Still probably the best team in the comp but the decline starts here, Ablett's Gold Coast speculation could destroy their season, backline aging (Scarlett, Milburn), still concerns about their forwards (Hawkins to step up this year or never)) 4. Pies (Will be there abouts, important addition to their ruck stocks but not good enough to get past a prelim again, too many overrated hacks (Cloke, Maxwell, Swan), supporters already starting to complain about bad umpiring costing them the flag) 5. Lions (Only one real extractor of note (Black), Power will probably move up forward, Rich is as good as he's gonna get, stocked up on other team's garbage. Good enough to win 13 odd games but no way the premiership, mortgaged their future for instant success and stuffed up) 6. Crows (Injuries already stacking up, young players to step up (Tippett, Dangerfield, Sloane), Vince to become a premium midfielder, Walker to have breakout season, McLeod's swansong) 7. North (Bit of a smoky for top 8, have shown good glimpses in the pre-season, lack of any good talls in the forwards however, decent crop of youngsters (Ziebell (overrated however), Warren, Cunnington, Bastinac etc.), underrated backline (Thompson, Grima, McMahon etc.)) 8. Hawks (Already looking like the horror injury run of last season is repeating, nobodies in the ruck, undersized backline, coach is a knob, supporters to fully jump off the bandwagon this season, hoping they implode) ----------- 9. Eagles (On the up, Josh Kenendy to have a breakout season at CHF, added some needed grunt in the middle with guys like Shuey, youngsters like Swift, Ebert etc. to continue their progression, worth watching just for the freakshow that is Naitanui, Masten to improve his disposal efficiency to around 20% (overrated player in the extreme)) 10. Swans (Lost their number one ruck and replaced with an average bigman (Seaby) and up and comer (Mumford), high stoppage team so could affect them abit. Bradshaw replaced Hall and is probably too old and on dodgy knees to kick that many, Goodes back to CHF, added a great inside player in Kennedy, added some speed in Jetta and flair in Rohan) 11. Blues (Essentially lost their entire forward line, Henderson still too raw to shoulder the responsibility of kicking bags of goals, Kreuzer to move into the Forward line even though he is much better around the ground and at the stoppages, Waite to move to CHF, added McLean to help Judd shoulder the load, one of the strongest midfields in the comp and underrated backline if guys like Jamison, Thornton and Bower remain fit, where will the goals come from?) 12. Bombers (Lost imo their most important player in Lovett, who will provide that blistering speed? Dempsey perhaps, undersized forward line, Gumbleton is being held together with sticky tape, Neagle is not the answer, Hurley will need to play forward, decent backline (Pears, Hooker) although Fletcher is aging, Watson still their only real ball winning mid and shoulders way too much responsibilty at the stoppages. Get their number one ruckman back from injury). 13. Port (Bottoming out, Tredrea, Chad Cornes, Brogan almost on their last legs, S.Burgoyne gone, need the next generation in Gray, Salopek and Boak to step up, some decent youngsters (Hitchcock, Banner, Broadbent) but not gonna be good enough to win that many games) 14. Dockers (Will once again dissappoint, Pavlich back to CHF where he belongs, Sandilands shouldering the ruck duties, Tarrant on his last legs, not bad small forwards in Ballantyne and Mayne, Palmer to return and to butcher the ball again, Barlow looks the goods, Hasleby slowing fading, still too much crap (Headland, Bradley, Schammer, Dodd), Hill to continue to impress) 15. Demons (Stocked up in the draft, kids alone no matter how good wont be able to win them too many games, Macdonald in the backline will help, can play on talls and also provide a bit of run, Grimes to be let loose into the midfield, Need two Aaron Davey's, injury problems and lack of a forward line, will Watts ever play? Need Bate to remain fit) 16. Tigers (The cleanup from the nuclear fallout that was the Wallace years begins, too much garbage left over (McMahon, King, Polak, Edwards etc. etc), added some decent looking kids that should get games (Martin, Webberley, Farmer), weaknesses in the fwds and backs will be exposed every week and will struggle to win more than 4 games)
Redb
Roar Guru
"Will we see lower scores in 2010?" yes we will. If you look at the best game of last season and possbly of all time, the Round 14 clash between Geelong and St Kilda, both teams failed to make 100 points and it was a classic battle. There is no doubt defensive zones are making the game tougher for forwards but also defences when a behind is kicked as the zones (taken to another level by St Kidla) make the path out of defence so much more difficult. "Who will win the premiership?" Too early to know, but we may know more after the NAB Cup grand final on Saturday night.
Sven man
Guest
Yea I still think the Cats are the team to beat. Seems like everyones just expecting them to drop off, but I really dont see where thats going to come from. I think getting another preseason into Selwood and Hawkins will be huge for them.
Tom
Guest
Disagree on bench numbers. On balance, I'd have to say that player welfare and the impact of early injuries would slightly outweigh your argument that 'life isn't perfect'.