England’s Danny Cipriani, right, runs with the ball. AP Photo/Matt Dunham
You heard it here first: England could be the best northern hemisphere side in next year’s Rugby World Cup. This fearless prediction (given England’s dire performance against Scotland several weekends ago) is based on two factors.
First, England’s generally good record at the RWC tournament, and second, England’s fine play in the first 20 minutes of play at Paris against France.
England have the third best record in the RWC tournament, after South Africa (two World Cups in four tournaments) and Australia (Australia two World Cups and a final in six tournaments), with three finals and a World Cup victory in 2007.
England, in fact, have made the final in the last two RWC tournaments, a fine achievement and a sign, I think, that the typical England rumbling style, played well, is hard to counter in knock-out games where the result is everything.
The Test against France at Paris on the weekend was a sort of knock-out type of match. France had to win to give the side a Grand Slam. England had to win to give the side its best Six Nations result since 2003.
In the first 20 minutes or so, England just over-whelmed France.
It reminded me a lot of how the side opened up in the 2007 quarter-final against Australia at Marseille. The big forwards rumbled the ball over the advantage line. The short side was punctured with some tough running. And then the ball was put wide through fast hands for Ben Foden to speed away for a terrific try.
Then heavy rain started to belt down.
England’s robust ball-in-hand game was given away for more of kicking and barging game. Even then, England made more breaks through Flood and Cueto than the French could put together.
My fearless prediction is predicated, however, on a couple of caveats.
The England pack looked very strong WITHOUT Steve Borthwick. If he is selected next season, then all bets are off.
All bets are off, too, if Mike Tindall is not in the side.
Tindall gave the England backline the bulk and know-how it has been lacking for some years. It was a surprise, and a turning point in the game, when he was substituted by the fragile Matthew Tait.
This brings us to another point about the England team: Martin Johnson is clearly out of his depth as a manager of the coaches.
The scrum, which should be a strong suit of the pack, was penalised heavily in the first half. It was only the advent of the old-timer Steve Thompson in the second half that rectified matters.
But Thompson is about as useful around the field as a car without tyres these days.
And the backs, especially the number 10s (Flood and Jonny Wilkinson), have no idea about the way to align. They stand far too deep, like all the European sides, with the exception of the excellent Stephen Jones (the number 10, not the journalist) of Wales.
You can’t consistently make the gain line with the number 10 standing back like a quarter back in the pocket.
This is Scotland’s problem with Dan Parks, a great kicker, standing so deep and playing without any energy, so that the rest of a likely backline are virtual sitting ducks waiting to be knocked over.
The basic rule of winning rugby is that the side that wins the battle of the advantage line will generally win the game.
An ignorance of this rule is the main reason why the top southern hemisphere sides (which understand the potency of the advantage line) have won five of the six World Cup tournaments.
If anyone doubts the truth of this assertion, then they should ask themselves why the line is called an “advantage line.”
Because of all this ignorance about back alignments and poor selections, I’d be happier with my prediction if the RFU brought in someone like Bob Dwyer. Dwyer understands all the elements of successful back play.
There is some talent in the England backline, but it won’t be unleashed if the running alignments and angles are all wrong.
My fearless prediction about England clearly downplays the chances of the other Six Nations sides, so a brief comment on them.
Italy hasn’t got any classy backs and the new tackle ball interpretations do not help their negative, hands-in-the-ruck game.
Scotland have a good lineout, a couple of strong-running forward, some handy backs and but no real brilliance or true mongrel of the Scottish teams of old.
Wales have some brilliant backs and a lot of confidence. Lee Byre reckons that Wales will knock-off the All Blacks later this year. But like Scotland, Wales lacks the mongrel aspect to its play that truly successful sides need.
Ireland’s RWC year was 2007. They blew it then. A great team is now getting old. The fact that John Hayes, a prop who can’t scrum, has recorded 100 caps, the first Irish player to achieve this, suggests a lack of depth in the engine room players. Ireland, too, have generally performed poorly at RWC tournaments.
France? They are the Grand Slam champions and they have played some brilliant rugby this season. They have a great pack and some pace and skill on the wings. But they look weak in the halves. They froze against England and were lucky that the rain bucketed down.
There is always the temperament issue with the French. They are capable of upsets (ask Australia 1987 and New Zealand 1999 and 2007). But France generally find it difficult when they reach the RWC final. The two biggest victories in the final (1987 and 1999) have been scored against French sides.
The history of the RWC is that the favourites sometimes fall away and sides not generally rated come through strongly.
Right now, England fall into the category of a ‘not generally rated’ side and, therefore, a candidate for a fearless prediction.
stuff happens
Guest
Ian Noble I happened to watch some IRB 7's from Adelaide last weekend.I was very impressed with an English forward called Rodwell. I know the view today is to develop separate 15 & 7 squads but this lad has real potential.
Wavell Wakefield
Guest
I think Parra and Trinh-Duc are two very good players whose attacking instincts have been reined in by the conservatism of Lievremont: Trinh-Duc doesn't attack the gainline as he does at domestic level. It's a waste of a talent, although a Grand Slam may suggest otherwise. That said, there is definitely a touch of the Gallic stereotype about the pair. Parra is occasionally petulant when presented with consistent physical resistance, and Trinh-Duc is as likely to throw up a horrific garryowen as an insightful pass. I would like to see Trinh-Duc and Mermoz paired up at 10-12 and given free licence to roam as they so choose. We all know that the team can grind and kick, so why not try alternatives?
el_Pajovic
Roar Rookie
Nice point! Throws the cat back amongst the pidgeons.
MattyP
Guest
Hey Spiro, how about making a market for me for France to win in 2011? I think that you are being overly harsh. Morgan Parra is only 21 with 15 caps. If France sticks with him, with another 6N and assorted other tests between now and then he will no doubt mature, and he definitely has the skills (watch the Top 14). And he does have the privilege of playing behind the best backrow in the world right now, which should help him develop. And don't forget Dupuy will be waiting in the wings after his suspension ends, prior to which he was one of the form halfbacks in world rugby. Likewise, Trinh-Duc is young with only 18 tests to his name. And surely a proper analysis of France's chances should not just revolve around brushing them with the old flight French sterotype. Under Lievremont they have a much better track record in this regard (something I believe from memory that you have acknowledge in at least one prior article?). Their consistent involvement at the pointy end of the Heineken Cup has sharpened them up in this regard, as well as there being more involvement with foreign players.
Ian Noble
Guest
It is too close to RWC2011 for there to be any changes to the coaching staff. Personally I think one of the problems that any England coach is faced with is selection. As you have noted in the Northampton/Gloucester final there were a number of players who deserve to be in the England squad. I suppose you were thinking of Gehargty, Myler, Lawes in the Northampton squad and Simpson-Daniel, Burns, Buxton in the Gloucester squad. All have represented England at various levels of these Gehargty, Lawes and Simpson-Daniel are the outstanding candidates, but the issue is can they crack it at test level? Lawes at 20 is the future and I think he is odds on to feature in RWC squad. By the way Northampton won without Foden, Ashton and Hartley who all featured for England v France. The point as it is unlikely that there will be any changes in the coaching staff will Johnson have the confidence to bring on some of the more exciting young players. I think it is unlikely as Johnson has preached continuity of selection and there is no doubt the more times they play together the better they will become. I also feel it is better to introduce younger players into a squad that is winning and playing well. In the past there has been too much chopping and changing and that has undermined confidence and has led to a conservative game plan. England are due to play three or four games in OZ in June and will be bringing a large squad of over 40 players. I suppose the intention will be to blood a number of younger players but also give the majority of the existing squad, injuries excluded, more game time with some experimentation which you don't get in the normal cycle of international fixtures. Unfortunately some of the brighter young players will be taking part in the U20RWC and it will be interesting to see how they perform as I believe they are stronger than last years squad with more players having played in the GP. I agree with Alec, Jim Mallinder is a bright coach and will probably be involved with England senior squad at some time in the future. Although people may have forgotten he was previously involved with the England when he coached the Saxons.
Wavell Wakefield
Guest
Alex, the point is that there isn't an old guard. Johnson came to the role with no experienced senior core to rely on as Robinson and Ashton had. Examine his first four selections and subseuent selections for confirmation. I fully concur that Ashton and Foden should have been used earlier, but Johnson's faith in Monye and Delon Armitage is hardly an illustration of stark conservatism. The same applies to his faith in Riki Flutey. Just look at the spine of the side selected in the 6N: Hartley, Cole, Haskell, Care, Monye/Ashton, Armitage/Foden. They're all young men. Not only is there no old guard, there is also no type to revert back to. Johnson cannot avoid criticism, as no coach can, but one criticism that is misplaced is the accusation of conservative selections.
Alec Swann
Expert
Spiro Nice to see someone showing a bit of faith in my countrymen and you could well be right in your prediction. The only problem as I see it is the age old English problem of conservatism. There was too much of 'after the horse has bolted' about Martin Johnson's selections for the France clash and while it was heartening to see some decent play after the bilge that was served up in previous outings, it wouldn't take much for those in charge to revert back to type. If results don't go their way over the next few months - and it is Australia, Nerw Zealand and South Africa they face in five of six games - it would be back to the old guard and that will get them nowhere. As for Jim Mallinder, he is doing an excellent job at Northampton and the sensible money should be on him succeeding Johnson although when that would be is anyone's guess.
Wavell Wakefield
Guest
I'm surprised you didn't comment on the Toby Flood 'alignment' comment, Colin. Aside from it being oddly incorrect I don't think it's even makes any sense in terms of semantics.
Derm
Roar Guru
"not sure if they can lift for one more effort as the ” Golden Generation era ” comes to an end...." Not sure if the Golden Gen tag is that accurate. Or maybe to say that it already ended in 2007. The Golden Generation tag has been around for about 5 years on Ireland's squad. Since then, a number of younger players have emerged in that time to establish a hold on a place in the team, or have become the number 1 starter. The core of younger players at the heart of the Ireland team are emerging as the striking platform for their games - Sexton, Earls, Bowe, Kearney, Ferris, Heaslip, Healy, Fitzgerald (when fit). All are under 26, and have at least two WC tourneys left in them. A quick glance at the Ireland team over the last 5 years, shows who's been there, and the younger equivalent coming through. 15 Murphy/Kearney/Conway 14 Horgan/Bowe 13 O'Driscoll/Earls 12 Darcy/Wallace/McFadden 11 Trimble/Fitzgerald 10 O'Gara/Sexton 9 O'Leary/Stringer/Reddan 8 Leamy/Heaslip/Henry 7 Wallace/Jennings 6 Ferris/O'Brien 5 O'Connell/Ryan 4 O'Callaghan/Cullen 3 Hayes/Court/Buckley 2 Best/Flannery/Cronin 1 Horan/Healy Clearly, some positions are stronger than others. O'Driscoll and O'Connell to a lesser extent, are the two totemic figures in the team who are perceived as the respective fulcra in the backs and foward line-ups - they bring leadership and authority to the team. Everyone else is replaceable. But that's the same for many teams who have got two or three 'must-haves' on any team sheet. McCaw/Carter; Elsom/Giteau; Matfield/du Preez/Smit,etc. Who have England got? Or will have in place for the WC?
Colin N
Guest
I would assume there will be a lot of English fans coming over, remember 2003?
nicksa
Guest
It is sad because in general it is a good thing for world rugby to have a strong england. That being said, it is going to take a couple of years and some seriously good management to get them back up!! The have no chance at 2011. If any NH team is going to take it, it is going to be france. They seem to be peaking at just the right time...
Ora
Guest
Not to mention we antipodeans like most other commonwealth countries don't warm to much to our English friends you can guarantee whoever the pomes are playing their opposition is going to get massive support.
stuff happens
Guest
I'm not game to make predictions about the RWC but I still think England's biggest problems lie with their coaching staff. They have the players for a good team, but they seem hamstrung by poor coaching.Rob Andrew & his position seems to receive a lot of the flack in the UK.Will they resolve all this before they head here in June? France have the best squad by far in the NH and yes they run hot & cold, but c'est la vie and I suspect that they will make any team very nervous in a 1/4 or semi at the RWC.They also seem to play very well in NZ. I think their halves are better than Spiro gives them credit for. And thanks for making me smile Spiro with your comment about Lee Byrne saying Wales will 'knock off' the AB's in NZ.Dream on! Wales never looked like beating either France or Ireland in the 6N and couldn't even score a try against Ireland.By the way they are also in a very hard draw in the RWC and could well struggle to get out of their group. Fiji & Samoa could provide us with some real excitement.
Spiro Zavos
Expert
I've just finished watching the Anglo-Welsh final between Gloucester and Northampton. It was a terrific match, refereed very well by Alan Lewis who often has been over pedantic for my liking. The new/old ruling on releasing the tackled player first provided an excellent contest with Northampton running out the deserved victors There were a number of English players in both squads who seemed to me to deserve to be at least in the England squad. Also, Jim Mallinder confirmed once again that he is the best young coach in England and why he hasn't been given some higher responsibilities is beyond me.
USARugbyFan
Guest
Well, not if the All Blacks and Springboks win their pools, than they would most likely meet in the semi-finals.
Viscount Crouchback
Guest
Engand's pool is tough, but that's no bad thing. The lesson of 2007 was that teams from tough pools became battle-hardened for the quarter-finals and were able to ambush seemingly stronger opponents who had enjoyed easier rides in their own pools.
Viscount Crouchback
Guest
Actually the rumour is that Sir Clive will replace Rob Andrew as Director of Rugby. It would be a terrific move if it happens. My understanding is that England will bring all their fit elite players and then make up the numbers for the tour games with Saxons. Jonno won't leave first choicers at home if he can help it - this is a serious trial run for 2011.
TembaVJ
Roar Guru
Well looking at the NH, being the best there is going to help absolutely nothing… They still have to play games against the South. :) This time it will be NZ/SA final with Aus in 3rd place… don’t know who will win that final.
Chris Beck
Guest
I watched the France-England match. I agree with the characterization of France looking "weak in the halves." As for Johnson as coach, he did do the obvious, changing two front-rowers when it was clearly warranted. But then he, less obviously, pulls Tindal, who was clearly England's best player up till that point. The new fullback, Foden, was a bright spot. And in terms of their chances for the RWC in 2011, I'm not real impressed with England's talent and/or depth in positions 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8. Shouldn't a world-class team have better players than England currently does in these positions? What they do seem to have doesn't remotely hold a candle to South Africa (in particular) or New Zealand. There's nobody to compete with the Matfields and McCaws and Elsoms of the world.
Sam
Guest
Looking at England's pool its probably not as easy as it looks. The Scottish lift against England and Argentina are not easy beats.