New Zealand Blues’ Joe Rokocoko catches the ball during their Super 14 Rugby match against Australia Waratahs in Sydney, Australia, Saturday, March 27, 2010. (AP Photo/Paul Seiser)
Let’s just whisper this right now: but the ACT Brumbies defeating the Chiefs, the Queensland Reds overwhelming the Cheetahs and the NSW Waratahs snatching an exciting victory over the Blues with a hand-of-God interception, there is a distinct possibility that two Australian sides will make the Super 14 finals this year.
The points table is slightly complicated by the fact a number of the sides in contention have experienced their byes (the Bulls, the Sharks, the Crusaders and the Reds). The Waratahs and the Brumbies have yet to have their bye.
The point here is that the teams which have had their bye round have a potential 4 more points to be added to their present tally.
Right now, though, the table with seven rounds played and six to go reads like this: Bulls 28, Stormers 23, Crusaders 23, Waratahs 23, Brumbies 21 and the Reds 19.
The Reds, potentially, on 23 points, along with the real 23 points of the Waratahs are 2 points (in theory only) ahead of the Brumbies.
For two Australian teams to make the Super 14 finals, either the Stormers or the Crusaders have to fall away from their present standings.
I was talking to a rugby expert who knows a lot about South African rugby at the SFS on Saturday night before the Waratahs – Blues match. We were discussing the likely teams for the finals.
We both agreed that the Bulls were certainties for the finals, and the most likely winners of the tournament. The only proviso was how the Bulls might get on away from South Africa. The solid victory over the game Western Force side revealed that the Bulls will get through their Australasian stint in good shape.
I expressed a doubt about the Crusaders, given that they have yet to play in South Africa. My expert reckoned that the Crusaders would emerge as the best of the New Zealand sides and, therefore, a finals side.
He expressed grave doubts about the Stormers to make the finals. He argued that they have yet to make their Australasian tour. He thought, also, that the Stormers didn’t have a strong reserve bench of players if one of their stars like Shalk Burger got injured.
Round 8 starts with the Hurricanes playing the Crusaders at Wellington. This match will decide whether the Hurricanes have any chance of making of the finals. It should be remembered that the Hurricanes, like the Chiefs, have had a schedule that did the team no favours.
The Chiefs had to come back from South Africa and play the Reds, at Hamilton, on a Friday night. Not surprisingly, the Chiefs ran out of steam after about 20 minutes.
The Hurricanes had to play the Sharks at Wellington last Saturday with the Sharks having been in New Zealand for two weeks and the home side having to travel all the way back from South Africa.
This weekend, the Sharks have to fly back to South Africa to play the Reds, who have been in the Republic for two weeks. This is bizarre and rather unfair scheduling. It raises the question: who does the scheduling and why are obvious injustices allowed for some sides?
If I was forced to make a prediction (which I am reluctant to offer given my appalling tipping record on The Roar) about the most likely Australian teams this season to make the finals, I would plump for the Reds (unlucky losers to the Waratahs and perpetrators of a thrashing to the Crusaders) and the Waratahs.
The Waratahs – Brumbies at the SFS on April 24, where a number of Roarers are going to get together before and after the match, is shaping up to be a key match for the Australian sides.
The week after that the Brumbies play the Reds at Canberra is another key match up for the Australian sides.
There are, however, so many variables left in the tournament (can the Chiefs or the Blues get their season on track? Will the Waratahs endure their traditional Wara-wobbles?) that talk of Australian teams making the finals must be muted for now.
So just quietly and between us, there is the possibility of two Australian teams in the Super 14 finals …
ohtani's jacket
Guest
Who cares about making the semis if you're gonna get hammered in South Africa? All that means is that you played one extra game and got smashed. The playoffs need to be longer.
Sheldon
Roar Rookie
Bulls, Crusaders and Stormers are a given. This is not really even a debate. Bulls are the form side. Stormers through the years have not struggled to win on the road, its home that was their problem and that seems to have been fixed. Crusaders and Stormers both control games to well to be posed real threats from most other sides. Bulls are too powerful. There is one spot open for an Aus team, but it will probably go to the Chiefs. The have the Highlanders , Bulls, Stormers, Cheetahs, Hurricanes, Warratahs and Blues. Highlanders will give them 5 points. They may have narrow losses to the Bulls and Stormers(2 points - 6 points), Cheetahs they could get maximum. Hurricanes seem to have problems in their camp (4 points). Warratahs they will beat. Warraths are overated, their game against the Force was possibly the worst rugby I have watched for some time. They will fall away. People are basing their form now on a game against the Lions. Will come down to the Blues game but i think they will do it. Bulls, Stormers/Crusaders (not sure on the home semi) and Chiefs. Sorry Aus, nothing mate!
Jameswm
Guest
By the way - sorry there's nowhere else to put this and I didn't have time to do an article... Early days I know but You know – I don’t reckon our squad is looking too bad. Qld coming through has added a lot to our depth Loose head props – Benn Robbo, Ben Alexander, Kepu, Daley the up-and-comer Hookers – TPN and Moore way ahead of the rest. Fitzgerald the up-and-comer Tight-head props – Ben A again – and a rejuvenated Baxter? Shep is so-so, Laurie Weeks improving but not an international yet. Dan Palmer the up-and-comer Locks – our problem area. Mumm, Caldwell, Notso Sharpe, Chisholm, Dennis. Horwill injured, Kimlin injured, Vickerman away, Rob Simmons and Kane Douglas the up-and-comers Blind-side flankers – Elsom, Mumm, Higginbotham, Dennis, Mowen – pretty strong Openside flankers – Pocock, Hodgson, Waugh. 18yos Michael Hooper and Jake Schatz and even Colby Faingaa the up-and-comers No.8 – Cliffy Palu our standout, Brown (injured) covers all the backrow spots as a sub. Hoiles is the other. Half backs – Genia now the standout, then the usual suspects Burgess, Holmes, Kingi, Sheehan etc Fly-half – Q Cooper, Barnes, Giteau, Beale. JOC as backup probably Inside centre – Barnes, Giteau, JOC - Leali’ifano the up-and-comer Outside centre – Ioane, Mortlock, Cross - Horne the up-and-comer (still only 20) Wings – Ioane, Turner, Hynes, Mitchell – Cummins, Davies, Fainifo and Morahan the up-and-comers Fullback – AAC, Shepherd when fit, JOC, Beale, Hynes, Gerrard if he returns At full strength it really looks pretty good – strong front row, well-balanced back row (and pretty tough pack overall), quick witted, creative and skilled halves, second play-maker, quick and hard running and tackling centre, and speed out wide. Issues are at lock and backup tight head prop. Robinson TPN/Moore Alexander Horwill Mumm/Kimlin/Vickermann/ Elsom Pocock Palu Genia Cooper Hynes Giteau/Barnes Ioane Turner AAC/Shepherd That’s NSW 5-6 Qld 5 ACT 4-5 WF 1 so pretty well spread - the Force apart. They'd no doubt argue for Notso Sharpe to be in there.
TembaVJ
Guest
I agree many here wont admit how far the Bulls have come and how they have evolved into a formidable team that can play any style. From me there is one more test and for my beloved Bulls and that is, can they win in NZ? If they pull it off then the doubters will be silenced. Loftus the thing many don’t understand or chose not to is that to play expansive running rugby you take from your defence and commit to attack.. so the new thing I hear all round is "the Bulls have leaky defence" or if the game is tight and they switch to the maul or kick-chase" then that is also frowned upon. I have found that the Bulls are the Collingwood (AFL) of the S14, you either hate them or support them. But one thing is certain they look the business this year, building well for the future and seem to get stronger each year. No one not a single person on this site would have bet that the Bulls would adapt to the new interps the best. My best/hope is that it’s a Reds vs. Bulls finals.
Loftus
Guest
The Bulls have just as many home games this year as the Stormers,Blues,etc.This means that they had more away games than home games in 2009.The teams that have 1 more away game than home games(like the Sharks)this year, had 1 more home game than away game in 2009.The draw is 100% fair.The teams you play at home in 2010,you've played away from home in 2009.So,Bhtumai,just give the Bulls the recognition they deserve and stop looking for excuses.They're playing the brand of rugby which have been promoted by many a kiwi and aussie reader on this website,scoring by far the most tries.Yet,you and a couple of others still don't want to give them recognition.I think I know why...you're a Crusaders fan and 3 titles to the Bulls out of the last 4 years will look a bit too close for comfort?
bhtumai
Roar Rookie
As a Kiwi watching the Reds play good footy has been awesome! In fact watching a Kiwi Biy in Quad Cooper take the Reds to brilliant things is good to see. For years the Reds were the whipping boys in Aussie abit like the Cheetahs in South Africa and Highlanders in New Zealand. - so well dont Queensland. The Bulls They have had a ridculous amount of home games in a room which is shocking hense them being out in front of the competition as it is difficult to win at Loftus. They are a solid team but they do not travel well and i dont believe they will win the Super 14 this year. As for the Waratahs or Brumbies I dont think that either of these sides has what it takes, The Crusaders are a definant, The reds will get in going on their form this year, the bulls will and i think the Hurricanes season will be turned around very soon. The Crusaders will win it this year, Dan Carter and Richie McCaw will steer the ship to victory
katzilla
Roar Guru
Cookie the All Blacks won't win the World Cup. It will be either France or South Africa. No one else (the ABs Included) will even come close. This will be the most one sided World Cup ever. One of those 2 will dominate from begining to end.
katzilla
Roar Guru
Never! Well maybe.......................they might save me from grief but i'll remain completely ungrateful. Hope they get smashed in the Semis! - By the Reds!
cookie
Guest
Katzilla, If there is no kiwi teams in the finals I wouldn't believe it, that probably means they will win the world cup and we simply can't have that. As long as the Crusader don't make it and i don't have to put up with endless gloating of my best mate who is a crusader all black kiwi but has been living in Aust since he was two I'll be happy. Having said that the crusaders can win the comp if it means i don't have to put up with the all blacks winning the world cup.
cookie
Guest
I concur that the most likely Aussie finalist are the Tah's and the Reds. The Brumbies don't look like a finals team to me.... Bulls to win Crusdaders in the finals Tahs Reds.. Only shitty thing is that even if we get two teams in the finals it is likely that... 1. We won't have a home Semi or 2. If we do... The Tahs will play the reds (which is good if it guarantees an aussie in the final) (if the tahs or reds can't fill a stadium with a all aussie semi they never will)
ohtani's jacket
Guest
Obviously there are some concerns there, but the big thing is the top two inches. The Sharks vs. Hurricanes game for example seemed like an exact replica of last year's All Black/Springbok Tests. What that tells me is that the Springboks are not going to stop playing their particular brand of rugby (especially with Smitty about) and the All Blacks might wanna contest the game in the forwards if they want to avoid another loss to SA in NZ (which is something we'd like to desparately like to avoid.) As for the Wallabies, I think they will be tougher than last year and difficult to beat at home. At some point, the All Blacks are going to start looking like the 2002 Wallabies and eventually the Wallabies will look like the 2003 All Blacks. I thought this was starting to happen last year but then we won the final two Tests rather comfortably. But unless there's a sudden drain of Wallaby talent offshore, I expect them to overtake the All Blacks sometime soon. Whether that will factor into the WC or not, I'm not sure. It's difficult for All Black fans to believe in the build-up to a World Cup anymore. It just seems like a random tournament that throws up a random result. But certainly the Aussie players seem to be having more fun this year. That's good for the game and the first step to bigger things.
ohtani's jacket
Guest
Don't tell me you're rooting for the Crusaders to make the semis!
nicksa
Guest
ABF could you please post the link to the article here? id like to read it...
katzilla
Roar Guru
There is a permutation that is far more significant for us Kiwis this year and its looking more and more a chance of eventuating. No NZ team in the Semis........................ If anyone needs me i'll be at the Doctors trying to get a years worth of Sick leave to avoid incoming griefing from workmates. Spose then might be a good time to announce my intentions to take citizenship :D
Ben C
Guest
OJ I agree that NZ has not just the best backs, but also a lot of depth everywhere except perhaps at 9 and 13. Obviously these are key positions so lack of depth there is a worry but there are some good young 9's. I don't see a lot of 13's coming through. Ranger showed that he is an awesome attacking player but is not (yet?) suited to playing centre. Still, there are a lot of players who could play 11, 14 and 15 for NZ all very credibly. We have Ioane, Turner, Mitchell, Hynes and some fringe players like McCabe or Cummins. You can pick from Rokacoko, Ranger, Masaga, Dagg, Toeava, Guildford, Jane, Sivivatu, Wulf, Muliaina, Smith. You are right that there is a real lack of old wise heads in the forwards. Hayman may be more missed than first thought. Plus, some of the older players look like they are showing the signs of too many years of hard rugby (the Mortlock syndrome). BBB just keeps going like an energiser bunny but Woodcock (for example) seems to be well off his best and showing a lot of fatigue. So NZ have the difficulty that it doesn't have many veterans in the forwards (where you usually need them - like England in 03) but those experienced players may not be the form players next year. It seems strange to even suggest Australian forward play is in a better place than NZ but there you go.
Stormer
Guest
Hawko you dead on the money there. You the only one making sense!!!
Justin
Guest
Pretty fair summation Hawko. I think he Stormers have been the value bet for the title for weeks now and are still double the price of the Bulls and, yes, the Crusaders who are massive "unders".
Hawko
Guest
Careful study of the remaining draw impacts on some of the comment above: 1. The Stormers follow the Bulls through their travels. This IMO gives the Stormers an armchair ride till they get back to SA. Then they are at home to the Crusaders and Bulls. I think they'll top the table unless their wheels fall off or injuries strike. 2. The Bulls defence has been leaky this year and I reckon they will lose against the Blues, maybe the Chiefs and Crusaders and definitely the Stormers in a titanic struggle. They'll come second or third. 3. The Crusaders have a horror draw for the last three matches and might lose all three. Bulls away, Stormers away, travel and jetlag, Brumbies at home, who will be fighting for a spot in the four. 4. Blues are the smokies. If they can win the next two games, which on their performance last week is a distinct possibility, they have all bottom teams till the last round and could come rolling home with lots of bonus points. Critical game is the Sharks. Last round is the Chiefs at home and I think by then the Chiefs will be toast. Biggest problems are their poor scrum and bench, although McCallister is coming back. 5. Chiefs have all top teams from here except the Highlanders and their tight five is being found out, especially at scrum time. Won't make it. 6. Brumbies are not picking up bonus points and will struggle to make the four. Games against the Tahs, Reds and Crusaders will be tough and two of those are away. 7. Reds are a fascinating study. Likely to be 4th or 5th. Must win one of the Stormers and Bulls games, plus they have the Sharks, Brumbies and Hurricanes all away. Can afford only two more losses. 8. Waratahs should finish third if they keep building momentum. Key game is Crusaders away. Win that and they might even get 2nd, but 3rd is more likely. So top four could be Stormers, Bulls, Waratahs, Crusaders/Reds/Blues. There are lots of permutations and it will be absolutely fascinating to watch them play out. I don't think that the four will be known before the last game of the last round. There is a real possibility that no Kiwi teams will make the four. I am looking forward to the next two months of great rugby. This S14 so far has been the best for many years.
PeterK
Roar Guru
OJ - I agree. The NZ teams Blues, Chiefs, and Canes have the best backlines, at least using their backs the best. Look at how many tries the backs have scored and how they run it wide. ACT have had nearly all their best play from their forwards and NSW fairly well split between the 2 with the forwards shading it. Qld is the exception but their backs have been playing above themselves and have the form halves of the comp, as a unit working together. That said the 3 teams above may have had great backline moves and the best runners but all 3 have been let down by poor handling. In the games they have lost against Aussie teams they have had atrocious handling at key moments. I see the SA having the best forwards as a unit though. I have looked at the draw and it is very very close. At this stage easily no aussie teams might be in the 4 or as this article looks at we have 2. There are so many teams in contention and they are fairly equal and I feel the draw could easily decide it ie travel to and from SA and which top teams you play away and home. If Auckland handle the SA to and from they could easily finish 2nd but if they dont they wont make the 4, that is how close it is.
allblackfan
Guest
I think the NZ teams have lost focus. Their mental attitude isn't right and they need to fix it. I also read an interesting NZ website article (backed up by the Highlanders-Lions game) that said the SA teams may well dictate the trend for this year's Super 14/Tri-Nations like they did last year. Two words -- rolling maul. Just when you Aussies thought rugby was starting to loosen up ...!!