Two Aussie teams in the Super 14 finals is on
Columnist By Spiro Zavos, 29 Mar 2010 Spiro Zavos is a Roar Expert
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- Brumbies, cheetahs, Chiefs, Reds, Rugby Union, Super Rugby, Waratahs
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New Zealand Blues' Joe Rokocoko catches the ball during their Super 14 Rugby match against Australia Waratahs in Sydney, Australia, Saturday, March 27, 2010. (AP Photo/Paul Seiser)
Let’s just whisper this right now: but the ACT Brumbies defeating the Chiefs, the Queensland Reds overwhelming the Cheetahs and the NSW Waratahs snatching an exciting victory over the Blues with a hand-of-God interception, there is a distinct possibility that two Australian sides will make the Super 14 finals this year.
The points table is slightly complicated by the fact a number of the sides in contention have experienced their byes (the Bulls, the Sharks, the Crusaders and the Reds). The Waratahs and the Brumbies have yet to have their bye.
The point here is that the teams which have had their bye round have a potential 4 more points to be added to their present tally.
Right now, though, the table with seven rounds played and six to go reads like this: Bulls 28, Stormers 23, Crusaders 23, Waratahs 23, Brumbies 21 and the Reds 19.
The Reds, potentially, on 23 points, along with the real 23 points of the Waratahs are 2 points (in theory only) ahead of the Brumbies.
For two Australian teams to make the Super 14 finals, either the Stormers or the Crusaders have to fall away from their present standings.
I was talking to a rugby expert who knows a lot about South African rugby at the SFS on Saturday night before the Waratahs – Blues match. We were discussing the likely teams for the finals.
We both agreed that the Bulls were certainties for the finals, and the most likely winners of the tournament. The only proviso was how the Bulls might get on away from South Africa. The solid victory over the game Western Force side revealed that the Bulls will get through their Australasian stint in good shape.
I expressed a doubt about the Crusaders, given that they have yet to play in South Africa. My expert reckoned that the Crusaders would emerge as the best of the New Zealand sides and, therefore, a finals side.
He expressed grave doubts about the Stormers to make the finals. He argued that they have yet to make their Australasian tour. He thought, also, that the Stormers didn’t have a strong reserve bench of players if one of their stars like Shalk Burger got injured.
Round 8 starts with the Hurricanes playing the Crusaders at Wellington. This match will decide whether the Hurricanes have any chance of making of the finals. It should be remembered that the Hurricanes, like the Chiefs, have had a schedule that did the team no favours.
The Chiefs had to come back from South Africa and play the Reds, at Hamilton, on a Friday night. Not surprisingly, the Chiefs ran out of steam after about 20 minutes.
The Hurricanes had to play the Sharks at Wellington last Saturday with the Sharks having been in New Zealand for two weeks and the home side having to travel all the way back from South Africa.
This weekend, the Sharks have to fly back to South Africa to play the Reds, who have been in the Republic for two weeks. This is bizarre and rather unfair scheduling. It raises the question: who does the scheduling and why are obvious injustices allowed for some sides?
If I was forced to make a prediction (which I am reluctant to offer given my appalling tipping record on The Roar) about the most likely Australian teams this season to make the finals, I would plump for the Reds (unlucky losers to the Waratahs and perpetrators of a thrashing to the Crusaders) and the Waratahs.
The Waratahs – Brumbies at the SFS on April 24, where a number of Roarers are going to get together before and after the match, is shaping up to be a key match for the Australian sides.
The week after that the Brumbies play the Reds at Canberra is another key match up for the Australian sides.
There are, however, so many variables left in the tournament (can the Chiefs or the Blues get their season on track? Will the Waratahs endure their traditional Wara-wobbles?) that talk of Australian teams making the finals must be muted for now.
So just quietly and between us, there is the possibility of two Australian teams in the Super 14 finals …
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March 29th 2010 @ 6:36am
LeftArmSpinner said | March 29th 2010 @ 6:36am | Report comment
If ever there was a case for 6 team finals, this is it. I was hoping that it would be this year. and then, we would get some really great games.
clearly the Bulls are playing good footy. I thought the Force showed that the Bulls are vulnerable on the road!! time will tell.
I would love it not to be so, but I am yet to be convinced that the Tahs or even the Brumbies can play the necessary running rugby when the chips are down and the pressure is on. The Reds have shown that they can. The Tahs and Brumbies chances will will be adversely affected by the failure to get those bonus points in the games against lowest ranked teams.
March 29th 2010 @ 8:34am
Working Class Rugger said | March 29th 2010 @ 8:34am | Report comment
LAS
Outside fortress Pretoria I think the Bulls certainly won’t be as invincible. The Force performed admirably but lacked penetration in attack which was the deciding factor in the game with the Bulls taking there opportunities when they came. While that is a sign of a very good team the teams they have played and had to really work to win against are both struggling at the moment ( the Force more so). I can actually see the Bulls stumbling at least once on the Australasian tour.
March 29th 2010 @ 7:03am
CraigB said | March 29th 2010 @ 7:03am | Report comment
“The Chiefs had to come back from South Africa and play the Reds, at Hamilton” – not true – They played the force in Perth in between. This breaks up the trip and makes the excuse of running out of steam a redundant one
March 29th 2010 @ 7:04am
Nashi said | March 29th 2010 @ 7:04am | Report comment
I have never understood why, since it is such an obvious disadvantage, teams travelling to or from Africa are not given the bye to recover. I know you can’t have a bye both ways but it would be interesting to see some statistics on win/loss ratio whenever the Indian ocean is crossed.
Nonetheless I agree with Spiro that of the AUS teams Tahs and Reds look the best placed, but the Stormers need to fall away considerably for both to have a look in. Given the Stormers are touring perhaps this is not as unlikley as one might think.
March 29th 2010 @ 8:18am
TembaVJ said | March 29th 2010 @ 8:18am | Report comment
Bulls travelled from SA and did not run out of speed…
March 29th 2010 @ 9:10am
Rusty said | March 29th 2010 @ 9:10am | Report comment
Stormers are on the same tour as the Bulls and this should provide a good indicator on their progress over the next couple fo weeks
March 29th 2010 @ 9:35am
chris said | March 29th 2010 @ 9:35am | Report comment
cape town to perth is the smallest leg of any sth africian to any NZ/aus game – can hardly be put in the scenario as the canes travelling back home to get beaten by the sharks – or how the sharks will fare playing the reds this week.
March 29th 2010 @ 9:59am
reds fan said | March 29th 2010 @ 9:59am | Report comment
its swings and roundabouts isn’t it… we get the sharks after they have a long flight, but then cop the bulls at home after a long flight.
March 29th 2010 @ 11:36am
Nashi said | March 29th 2010 @ 11:36am | Report comment
Temba, I didn’t see the game but by all accounts it was a close affair until the last quarter. This is not the sort of result one expects from the championship leader. When I tip I am always mindful of the distance travelled and the disparate ranking of the opponents. In this instance I expected the Bulls to win comfortably with a bonus point.
March 29th 2010 @ 7:09am
Justin said | March 29th 2010 @ 7:09am | Report comment
This is shaping up as a fascinating second half to the season.
The Bulls are clearly on top and are playing such power rugby, running hard from around the corner and from great depth. Even big defence see’s them over the advantage line. They have a very tough run home with all but the Lions match in Pretoria losable matches. They play the Blues, Chiefs and Reds (who have to fly back from SA!) over the next 3 weeks, then play the Sharks (who will be much better back in SA) Crusaders and Stormers in the Republic!
Stormers have a similar run to the Bulls but without the luxury of the Reds having travlled.
Would you put your hard earned on both these teams coming through with out some damage from this run? I wouldnt although the Bulls are clear they SHOULD hold 1st or 2nd on the ladder.
Remember the Sharks from last year anyone????
The Crusaders have it slightly easier playing the Cheetahs at home but stil have to play both Bulls and Stormers in SA, Cabes away, Force away and Brumbies at home after the travel back!
The Tahs have probably the easiest run home but there are some skins to sip on as most matches are against NZ teams so they must travel and play well. Also a match v the Brumbies.
ACT have 2 bankers with Cheetahs and HLanders at home but tough away matches with Tahs and Saders. Reds back at home. An away win could be enough to get them in.
The Reds play the top 2 teams at home and must win a couple away v Brumbie and Canes.
No easy task.
Gee I thought someone would have an easy run but I can easily see most teams dropping at least a cople of matches in the run home.
Could this be the most open S14 ever? Its going to be close thats for sure!
March 29th 2010 @ 12:46pm
Brett McKay said | March 29th 2010 @ 12:46pm | Report comment
have to agree Justin, and with Spiro too, the second half of the comp is shaping up nicely. The two remaining Australian derbies are probably doubly important for all involved than they perhaps might have been in Feb, and then we have the additional x-factors in how the Bulls, Stormers and Crusaders travel.
Whoever it was today that said this year is as good an argument for a Top 6 as there ever will be is on the money too…
March 29th 2010 @ 7:17am
breakaway said | March 29th 2010 @ 7:17am | Report comment
Three good NZ sides lost narrowly on the weekend. It must be time for another cisis in NZ rugby.
March 29th 2010 @ 7:20am
LeftArmSpinner said | March 29th 2010 @ 7:20am | Report comment
Spiro, there are two other aspects to be considered:
History tells us that:
1. Home games are invariably won by the home team. The Tahs decision to give up one of these highly valuable home games by moving it to Homebush, will come back to haunt them, just as it did last year against the Crusaders. their losing margin against the Crusaders was also the margin by which they fell short of the Semis.
2. Making the finals is all good but, it is also about finishing in the top two.
3. The games between teams contesting a finals spot are literally worth double points! The game that will determine the finals is the Brumbies tahs game. The winner will make it through, or at least, the loser wont make it through.
In terms of Home/neutral/Away games, here is the run in for each of the teams, except the Runaway Bulls:
The Stormers run in is: force (A), blues (A), chiefs (A), reds (A), sharks (A) and crusaders and Bulls at home;
Home/Neutral/Away: 2/0/5
The Waratahs run in is: cheetahs (H), Crusaders (A), Brumbies (N), Highlanders (A), Chiefs (A), Hurricanes (H);
2/1/3
The Crusaders run in is: Hurricanes (A), Waratahs (H), Cheetahs (H), Force (H), Stormers (A), Bulls (A), Brumbies (H)
4/0/3
The Brumbies run in is: Cheetahs (H), Hurricanes (H), Waratahs (N), Reds (H), Highlanders (H), Crusaders (A)
4/1/1
The Reds run in is: Sharks (A), Lions (A), Bulls (H), Stormers (H), Brumbies (A), Hurricanes (A), Highlanders (H)
3/0/4
My tip for the Semis are:
1. Bulls
2. Crusaders
3. Reds
4. Brumbies
March 29th 2010 @ 8:17am
Chris said | March 29th 2010 @ 8:17am | Report comment
It says it all about the mentality of some Sydney rugby fans that they consider a game just 13km from the City to be “Neutral”. The last time I checked it was the NSW Waratahs, not the Vaucluse/Mosman/Neutral Bay Waratahs.
People wonder why Parramatta is struggling? 20km from Point Piper is practically provincial! If Rugby Union is ever to succeed in Australia it needs to destroy this mentality.
If you applied that mentality to Canberra then EVERY match the Brumbies play must be Neutral. After all Belconnen is a whole 25km from Manuka!
March 29th 2010 @ 9:10am
The Phantom said | March 29th 2010 @ 9:10am | Report comment
Could not agree more Chris, I am sick of hearing about the plight of the poor people of sydney who have to get a train then walk 500m to be in a stadium to watch their team. I drive 4 hours to park much further away in Canberra just to see a game of Super rugby, I dont even get to see the team I support (Waratahs), to do that is a 6 hour drive then have to do the same as every other supporter in Sydney.
STOP YOUR WHINGING & SUPPORT YOUR TEAM!!!!!!!!
March 29th 2010 @ 11:35am
Who Needs Melon said | March 29th 2010 @ 11:35am | Report comment
LAS when will you ever learn? You’re allowed to voice your opinion… but only if it’s positive! Please!
I think what LAS is driving at is not the location of the ground but the fact that it’s a different ground. Perhaps in part home ground advantage occurs because players feel more comfortable on turf they are intimately familiar with and that hold lots of good memories. Who knows eh?
March 29th 2010 @ 3:07pm
Rugbywits said | March 29th 2010 @ 3:07pm | Report comment
The main thing that home grounds are meant to be about is the travel and also the home crowd factor.
The home crowd being a non factor is the problem for NSW.
Everytime i cheer at a NSW match or possibly get a little bit loud about a refs decision I get looks.
Its not as though we are there to have a snooze or am I wrong?
Btw, I’m GenY and may have different sporting values to some ‘older’(?) blokes out there. But I dont yell because I dont appreciate the finer points in rugby, i yell because Im passionate about my team and about maybe being part of the crowd that lifts a team through a tough match. It does happen.
Aussie players always talk about how ‘excited’ they are and how they love the ‘challenge’ of playing in a SA venue.
What they are really saying is that they know the crowd has an impact on the home team and it becomes a tougher match.
That is sorely missing from games played in Sydney. Any venue.
Exhibit from this weekends match: the game was relatively close in score and combat the whole time, you could feel either team could win the match for the whole 80mins. But it wasnt til the last 50 SECONDS that the crowd as a whole lifted to try and cheer their team on.
SFS isnt far from neutral. Ive been to a Socceroos match on a Wednesday night with a louder crowd.
March 29th 2010 @ 9:41am
adam said | March 29th 2010 @ 9:41am | Report comment
wouldnt write the bulls off jsut yet but they arnt looking like they r good enough to win it just yet few cracks here and there
March 29th 2010 @ 9:56am
Sam said | March 29th 2010 @ 9:56am | Report comment
This is why i think the Super 14 is one of the toughest football competitions around. The travel is just atrocious (the Asian Football Championship would be tougher though). It can easily decide the top 4 teams, and with only 4 of 14 making the play-offs its pretty tough. I would like to know which proportion of teams have won the week after travelling back from South Africa? Or the week they traveled there? I still think a lot could change and in the last few seasons the top 3 of the top 4 havn’t been decided until the last round of two. I’m picking Bulls, Crusaders, Stormers and Reds (in any order). The Stormers and the Bulls have great draws, can’t see them losing their play-off spots.
March 29th 2010 @ 11:44am
Nashi said | March 29th 2010 @ 11:44am | Report comment
Sam, I think it is the time zone changes rather than the distance which causes the problems. However I would still love to see some stats from the last few years as I suspect that travelling SA to NZ is probably the worst way to go while Perth to SA would be the easiest. This will continue to be an issue next year though less so. With careful management of the schedules and byes SANZAR could at least minimise the disadvantage.
March 29th 2010 @ 11:47am
Rusty said | March 29th 2010 @ 11:47am | Report comment
looking at the Sharks schedule this year I would say its drawn out of hat
March 29th 2010 @ 7:23pm
Sam said | March 29th 2010 @ 7:23pm | Report comment
You’re right, I did mean time zones. Although it doesn’t help when there are 6 day turn arounds, and travelling between two cities without direct flights. God Hamilton – Bloemfontein must be awful, would be Hamilton-Auckland-Sydney-Johanesburg-Bloemfontein. Plus the time zones. Torture!
March 29th 2010 @ 11:07am
Troy said | March 29th 2010 @ 11:07am | Report comment
Is the travel to SA from AU/NZ as hard on the players as the trip going the other way SA to AU/NZ?
I know when we’ve been to SA the jetlag is always harder when we arrive home in Brisey.
March 29th 2010 @ 11:24am
ohtani's jacket said | March 29th 2010 @ 11:24am | Report comment
The New Zealand sides keep trying to play running rugby and losing. I thought you great purveyors of running rugby would lament that?
March 29th 2010 @ 11:38am
reds fan said | March 29th 2010 @ 11:38am | Report comment
you need to do it well also OJ. just running isn’t enough.
March 29th 2010 @ 11:49am
Rusty said | March 29th 2010 @ 11:49am | Report comment
who would have thought at the beginning of the season a Reds fan lecturing a kiwi fan about thier teams ability to play running rugby! Times are a changin
March 29th 2010 @ 11:52am
reds fan said | March 29th 2010 @ 11:52am | Report comment
hahaha. i was just winding OJ up a bit.
March 29th 2010 @ 2:10pm
ohtani's jacket said | March 29th 2010 @ 2:10pm | Report comment
The rugby looked a damn sight better from the Kiwis than it did from the South Africans and Australians this weekend. I thought we were trying to make this competition exciting? Why have SANZAR gone soft on the new interpretations? How come Aussies only complain about rugby when they’re losing? Is the answer to these questions in another question?
March 29th 2010 @ 2:48pm
Working Class Rugger said | March 29th 2010 @ 2:48pm | Report comment
OJ
” The rugby looked a damn sight better from the Kiwis than it did from the South Africans and Australians this weekend.”
If that were true the Blues, Chiefs and Hurricanes would have won. Alas they didn’t so it must the officials and SANZAR slacking off on the new intrepretations. It couldn’t be that they were beaten by better teams.
March 29th 2010 @ 3:42pm
ohtani's jacket said | March 29th 2010 @ 3:42pm | Report comment
They all looked more stylish than their opposition. I thought this was the number one mantra of Australian rugby — to look pretty.
March 29th 2010 @ 4:24pm
reds fan said | March 29th 2010 @ 4:24pm | Report comment
one person’s “stylish” is another person’s gold lame jumpsuit….
March 29th 2010 @ 7:47pm
Working Class Rugger said | March 29th 2010 @ 7:47pm | Report comment
OJ
You don’t win game on just style. Having actually watched all four games involving NZ teams they were no more ‘stylish’ than the teams than beat them. In fact considering the scorelines of the games I’d dare say if style was so important then the Brumbies, Tahs and Sharks were far more stylish than their NZ opposition.
March 29th 2010 @ 8:17pm
ohtani's jacket said | March 29th 2010 @ 8:17pm | Report comment
Even Phil Kearns admitted that the Blues played better looking rugby than the Waratahs! What’s going on fellas? I thought we were supposed to be promoting attacking play this year?