Predicting the Socceroos game plan in South Africa

As we look ahead to the Socceroos upcoming World Cup preparation games against New Zealand, Denmark and the USA, and wonder who of Pim Verbeek’s provisional squad will survive the final cull on June 1, it’s timely to turn our attention to what we can expect of our Socceroos in South Africa. Not in terms of results, or how far we might go.

What I’m referring to here is the expected game-plan; the tactics and strategy Verbeek will use throughout the three group games against Germany, Ghana and Serbia, and hopefully beyond.

The biggest hint into how the Socceroos will approach the three group games came seven months ago, in the 0-0 friendly draw with the Netherlands in Sydney, which I wrote about at the time on The Roar.

Let me explain.

Strategy one; absorb and counter

This, I believe, will be Verbeek’s preferred modus operandi, especially given the quality of the opposition drawn. It is one he has used throughout his coaching career, and one he used successfully throughout the qualifiers, especially away from home.

The idea is to sit deep with a bank of four defenders screened by two holding midfielders. This would suit the likes of Craig Moore and Vince Grella, who, you sense, don’t have the legs to get up and down the pitch, as they once did.

The four “attackers” in front of them effectively start the defence with their work-rate and pressure on the ball.

This is why Verbeek is so fond of attackers who can defend. Joel Griffiths, in a recent interview with Sebastian Hassett of the Sydney Morning Herald, said it was the one thing Verbeek had asked him to work on.

In truth, defending from the front is the way of the modern game, with Barcelona leading the charge with their highly effective “recover the ball early” strategy.

For the Socceroos, the idea will be to invite the opposition forward, make it as difficult as possible to get-through, and then spring forward with pace and mobility.

Witness the job Jose Mourinho did on Barcelona in the first leg of the UCL semis as a classic example of how to do it well.

This is why a fit Harry Kewell is such an important part of Verbeek’s strategy.

Josh Kennedy, for all his aerial prowess, simply doesn’t fit in this template. He is there for strategy two, but more on that later.

Kewell, if fit (and there were some encouraging signs in the 60 Minutes story Mike Tuckerman wrote about yesterday), would be the lone front-man, looking to not only meet the ball as it comes out of defence, but looking to do something with it as he spins and bears down on the opposition goal.

He will of course need able support from his three offensive midfielders. Brett Emerton is the obvious choice on the right and will fancy the chance to gallop into space in forward transition. Equally, he can be relied upon to do the job defensively.

Tim Cahill is the likely choice to roam into behind Kewell, and will be there as much for his ability at set pieces as anything else.

Ironically, Cahill isn’t necessarily the best “in the hole” option for this strategy. He might even be best utilised off the bench, as he was in the opener in Germany.

The best man for this counter attack style might indeed be Brett Holman. Shock, horror, I hear you say.

While he mightn’t be the most gifted technically, he is mobile, buzzes about in the midfield, and can spring forward in support of Kewell et al. What he might lack on the ball, he makes up for in workrate, and that is the Verbeek way to a tee.

He could even be used on the left if Mark Bresciano fails to come up.

Another offensive option on that side is Scott Chipperfield, who has done a great job their recently for Basel, banging in the goals.

Even Nikita Rukavytsya is perfectly suited to this strategy. With his pace, he loves to spring into open space, and, according to Verbeek, that’s exactly how he’s been scoring his goals in Belgium.

If a team defends high, as the Germans are likely to do, then he will relish any opportunities in behind, either on the left or through the middle.

This is the strategy the Socceroos adopted, successfully I felt, in the second half against Holland, in the game I mentioned above.

After being totally bossed in the first half, with Kennedy and Cahill up front, the manager reverted to this counter attacking strategy in the second period.

On at the break came Brett Emerton and Dario Vidosic, who were deployed to the flanks. The two first half wide-men, Kewell and Holman, were moved into the centre (Holman behind Kewell), while Kennedy and Cahill were sacrificed.

After the front third were completely isolated from the back six in the first period, at least the Socceroos were a little more in touch in the second, and offered more cohesion going forward.

I sense that finishing formation (if not quite the personnel) remains at the forefront of Verbeek’s mind, and I would be surprised if it isn’t the strategy he adopts for at least the start of the opening game against Germany.

If we can somehow get in front, then it will play right into Verbeek’s hand as the German’s will have no choice but to stay on the offensive. Australia might thus get their opportunities to pick Germany off as the likes of Rukavytsya and Vidosic are introduced late.

However, if the Germans get in front, and decide to sit back and counter-attack themselves, Verbeek may have no choice but to revert to the alternative strategy.

Strategy two; on the offensive

This is the strategy Verbeek will look to use when trying to control and dominate a game, or, more likely, when chasing a game.

Potentially, it is an option against Ghana in the second game, but that will largely depend on the result of the Germany game, and how the Africans shape up in their opener against Serbia.

Ghana’s Serbian manager, Milovan Rajevac, is said to be rather defensive in his outlook, and if that’s the case, he may even look to absorb and counter.

So the Socceroos might get the opportunity to make the running. If so, the idea would be to have a high defensive line, with the “starting position” of the holding midfielders predominately being around the centre circle.

If that’s the case, and Australia’s fullbacks can get forward, Verbeek may have an opportunity to use Kennedy as the lone striker, with the obvious support from behind coming from Cahill.

Others, of course, who would be the beneficiaries of such a strategy, are Nick Carle, who could be used to unlock a deep-sitting defence, and Scott McDonald.

The latter, like Kennedy, is a penalty box player.

If the Socceroos are on the offensive, dominating possession and territory, and controlling the game, both Kennedy and McDonald, you sense, would get chances.

Carle would be one option off the bench to create them.

There are dangers though in playing such an offensive strategy, especially from the get-go.

By pushing the defensive line high up the pitch, especially with an aging backline, the Socceroos would run the risk of being caught in behind. If the Omani’s can stretch us, imagine the rest of the world.

But if the Socceroos are behind, Verbeek might have no choice. It could be all or nothing.