Many media reports have suggested the NRL can earn around $1 billion for their next TV broadcast deal starting in 2013. Is this a shoe in or pie in the sky?
It is impossible to know this early, but here is a look at some TV ratings for 2010 and some ideas on how close the NRL may get.
FTA – Capital Cities
The AFL currently wins capital city ratings due to far more content shown in more cities on more channels. The AFL also has picks 1,2,3 and 4 on FTA while the NRL has picks 1,2 and 5.
Channel Nine has a rolling schedule where they set the NRL fixtures six weeks in advance and the AFL has a fixed season schedule. The NRL have suggested they will be changing to a fixed season schedule from 2013.
One factor for broadcasters is that an AFL game provides 60 mins of ads in a three hour program, an NRL game provides 40 mins of ads in a two hour program.
However, this shows volume of ads, not how much those ads are worth.
The FTA networks make 1.41 times more advertising revenue from Sydney and Brisbane than they do from Melbourne, Perth and Adelaide.
The following figures are for the first eight full rounds of the NRL and AFL in 2010 (before the NRL brings in the split round period due to the test match and State of Origin).
NRL
Sydney 24 games shown on Nine, avg audience 330K.
Brisbane 24 games shown on Nine, avg audience 196K.
Melbourne 15 games shown on Nine, avg audience 18K (Midnight coverage).
AFL
Melbourne 48 games shown on Seven, Ten, 7Two and One HD, avg audience 223K.
Perth 51 games shown on Seven, Ten, 7Two and One HD, avg audience 95K.
Adelaide 50 games shown on Seven, Ten, 7Two and One HD, avg audience 77K.
Sydney 45 games shown on Seven, Ten, 7Two and One HD, avg audience 28K.
Brisbane 49 games shown on Seven, Ten, 7Two and One HD, avg audience 35K.
The NRL has a higher average in Sydney than the AFL in Melbourne and the NRL has a higher average in Brisbane than the AFL in Perth and Adelaide.
The NRL has less content on FTA as they offered their product to only one network with their current broadcast deal and allowed channel Nine to market rugby league in Melbourne. This should be rectified with the next deal.
FTA – Regionals
The first area that the NRL dominates is FTA regionals, for the obvious reason that there are five million people living in regional NSW and Qld and 2.57 million people living in regional Vic, WA, SA and all of Tasmania.
Regional figures are difficult for your average sports fan to find. However, the networks, Foxtel, NRL and AFL are well aware of the exact figures.
An idea of their importance can be seen with Game 1 of State of Origin this year.
FTA capital city ratings were 2.45 million, but when you put in the regional figures, the game rated 3.6 million.
That’s an extra 1.15 million people from the regionals.
The FTA networks make a staggering 2.2 times more advertising revenue from regional NSW and Qld than from regional Vic, WA, SA, and all of Tasmania and the NT.
The AFL currently has only one team outside of the five mainland capital cities in the Geelong Cats (soon to be two with the Gold Coast joining the AFL in 2011), while the NRL already has four with the North Qld Cowboys, Gold Coast Titans, Canberra Raiders and the Newcastle Knights, as well as current strong bids from Central Qld and Central Coast.
The regional figures are such a strong factor for the NRL that David Gallop has suggested the NRL may sell their product separately to the regionals.
For example, sell to Channel Nine and then separately to WIN/NBN.
Foxtel
The NRL dominates Foxtel due to higher ratings, more content and Foxtel’s greatest market penetration being in NSW and Qld. The NRL has picks 3,4,6,7 and 8 on Fox sports and the AFL has picks 5,6,7 and 8.
The NRL had 40 games on Foxtel, avg audience 205K
The AFL had 32 games on Foxtel, avg audience 159K
The NRL has 44 of the top 94 shows on Foxtel so far this year, the AFL has only 20. The NRL has six of the top ten this year, the AFL has none.
Unlike FTA, Foxtel does not rely solely on ad’s to generate revenue but is a pay TV network.
This means that due to the NRL’s higher ratings, more people pay an $80 per month subscription fee to Foxtel to watch NRL games than are paying the same fee to watch AFL games.
Despite this, the AFL are believed to have received $225 million out of their last $780 million broadcast deal from Foxtel, a significantly larger amount than the NRL received.
Without the conflict of interest of News Ltd’s ownership in the NRL selling rugby league to News Ltd owned Fox Sports next time around, it is reasonable to expect the higher rating NRL to have a value of at least $300 million when the new NRL deal starts in 2013 (this is being conservative as it would be only $75 million more than the AFL received six years earlier).
The NRL only need to get twice the amount from the FTA networks than from this Pay TV figure to have made $900 million already.
The AFL has stopped its negotiations with the networks until the decision regarding the anti siphoning laws is handed down. This may allow Foxtel to bid directly against the networks for some of the top rated NRL and AFL games.
With its superior ratings, the NRL will expect a bigger slice of the Foxtel pie than what the AFL will get.
New Zealand
The NRL currently receive $12 million per year from SKY TV to broadcast NRL games into New Zealand. If a more productive set of negotiations – factoring in inflation – can bring a 50 per cent increase six years later with the new broadcast deal, this would give the NRL $90 million in a five year deal.
Media Predictions
Channel Seven have already stated they will be bidding on the NRL. One suggestion is that they will bid for State of Origin and Internationals.
State of Origin is a no brainer, with Game 1 in 2010 reaching a peak national audience of 4.2 million, phenomenal ratings for three mid-week, mid-season games.
The Anzac Test match this year rated an impressive 1.239 million viewers (1.826 million including regionals). Channel Nine’s lethargy in promoting international rugby league could be revamped through Seven if they see potential for the annual Anzac Test and a re-working of the end of season Tri-Nations, Four Nations or World Cup formats.
Channel Ten have also already stated they will be bidding on the NRL.
It is suggested they are after a Saturday night NRL fixture at the expense of their current Saturday night AFL games.
How realistic is this?
The average audience Ten received from the AFL is:
Melbourne 259K
Perth 101K
Adelaide 80K
Sydney 43K
Brisbane 56K
There is currently a sporting black hole in Sydney on Saturday night, but the average audience for the three NRL games is:
Sydney 330K
Brisbane 196K
Melbourne 18K (Midnight coverage).
Considering the value of ads in NSW and Qld, it is very possible Channel 10 would drop the Swans for NRL content in the northern states with prime time Storm games in Melbourne, which would most likely equal or beat the Swans current ratings in Sydney.
bilbo
Guest
I also hope that the NRL will get a better deal next time around - not just in comparison with its current deal, but in terms of bridging the gap with the AFL. The AFL receive large amounts of money from their on ground advantages - the AFL is widely considered to be a better spectacle at the ground, the grounds can fit more people at better vantage points, the stadiums are world class, and the game goes for an hour longer so you get better value for money. This translates into larger attendances, and larger membership bases, all of which provide the clubs with their main source of income. The AFL's TV deal is a bonus, and allows it to consider expansion, as it is currently doing. RL, on the other hand, is widely considered to be a better TV game - the coverage and angles presented on the TV allow you to see all the up close areas of the game, no matter which side of the field it is being played. The rectangular stadiums must be smaller, and there are less vantage points etc. Also, due to the influence of Cricket, the AFL stadiums are better quality than RL. Only three world class RL stadiums exist - Suncorp, SFS and Stadium Aust - and only suncorp is especially designed for league. While this translates to less members and attendances, this does provide an insight into why the NRL receives just as many (if not more) viewers, even though there is a much smaller catchment area - the viewer numbers are largely underpinned by Qld and NSW. TV rights are the future - the big leagues in the world rely on TV income much more than ground attendances and memberships, even merch - so this is a significant advantage for league. Lets hope the next deal can reflect this.
martin copelin
Guest
I hope the NRL will receive a good increase on their fta television rights plus an increase from pay as well. Nevertheless Aussie Rules will always be the most popular of the footie codes in this land. I would like to see the English super league biggest games of the week shown here at decent times also. Their game generally is not as hard but they move the ball better and are orientated to attacking football. In conclusion I think the AFL will leak money with GWS and to a lesser extent the Gold Coast. They are lead by very arrogant people who show total contempt for their rivals. Although the game of AFL is exciting to watch live at the top level it is not so good on television particularly for those like me who do not know all the rules - or no rules.
Tiger27
Guest
Baz35, I looked at the link you showed and they are giving the figures below, which look nothing like what the Rugby supporters are coming up with. "Over the entire season, the AFL was watched by a total of 65,023,000 and the NRL by 40,272,000. But what many fail to take into account is the three hour running time of an AFL telecast compared to the two hour running time of it's NRL rival. When this is taken into account, the AFL is viewed 2.4 times as often as the NRL on free-to-air according to Oztam figures." Not only are the numbers well in favour of the AFL the length of the game allowing more ads also increases revenue for the FTA channels, so I can't see how the NRL expects to get the same deal as the AFL. There appears to be some creative accounting in this thread.
Fly
Guest
It looks exiting for RL in the future, primarily if the networks are going to pay those types of figures to ensure they catch the large markets of NSW and QLD, hopefully they justify the spend further and show the games outside of NSW and QLD. Then you wont need the NRL leading for the push for expansion, the networks have now created the expansion to showing RL games in WA, SA and VIC ... Yes the ratings may take a hiding for awhile but no doubt will creep up. In other words let us say that 10 have 5million to spend on a saturday night game, using the figures from the fellas above, 10 would be better off spending and ensuring them the highest rating show NATIONALLY on RL. Grabbing the massive audience of NSW & QLD and showing it to the rest of the country. Lets not argue about states but nationally, it makes good business sense for them to do this.
Crosscoder
Roar Guru
I suggest they need to try and buld their sub base up,because it is lagging well behind NSW and Qld,and rl is the major sport player on Pay TV. then one can ask on the other side of the ledger. Why would channel 7 go to the expense of having a rugby league show(the Matty Johns show( when they don't show any rugby league at present. Why would Fox go to the expense of showing 2 under 20 toyota cup games of rl each weekend,and pay 6 figure amounts per annum to do so.Because it rates particularly well and is a lead in to NRL matches they broadcast. Why is channel 10 strangely this year giving rugby league far more coverage in its sports lead in,than it has done before. Why would Richard Hinds(An AFL man and SMH journalist) write in the Age 29/4 The AFL is attempting to increase its rights package from the current $780m deal(which was inflated by KP's late bid that forced 7 to dig deep. At the same time,as it extricates itself from the News ltd ownership deal that was a legacy of the SL war,the NRL expects a major increase from its current $500m deal with foxtel and Nine. That is something industry experts agree is fully justified given teh massive television figures that belie the Melbourne impression that the NRL does not challenge the AFL as a spectator sport. Recent sightings of Ten officials with teh NRL bosses have created some intrigue,particularly at a time when there has been industry rumours Ten is unhappy with its treatment by theAFL.Inevitbaly ,speculation has grown Ten is preparing to make a pitch for a share of the NRL rights." Thta article was not written by the nemesis of some Roy Masters with his rl hat on,but an AFL afficionado.
Boris the Mudcrab
Guest
You have to remember that Rugby League Membership has only been pushed over the last 2/3 years. Most people before hand thought they were a member when they were a member of the respective Leagues Club
Jim Wilson
Guest
Last Friday the NRL games were both live from Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane at 7.30 pm & 9.30 pm (roughly). Why is it so difficult to compare?
Mister Football
Roar Guru
Just watching the pre-match show on Fox and noticed that they're introducing two new mid week AFL shows. That pretty much means one or two AFL shows, not involving games, every day of the week. The question has to be asked: why would Fox go to that expense?
Beaver fever
Guest
It's not apples for apples, live against delayed, a QLD fri game for QLD, a NSW fri game for NSW, a effort to put the big games on friday from 6 weeks out against a draw set out in concrete for the season. Even with all that and including Perth where the game is over in the east before it starts on the tele the AFL ratings are generally way ahead. It's very difficult to really compare, other than to say Roy Masters makes me laugh.
Crosscoder
Roar Guru
Reading between the lines here with facts presented on NRL ratings,from media sources,from admissions by 7(Stokes) 9 and 10 execs and Fox people,by the certainty Perth and the CC which will add to content for good Sydney and Brisbane ratings,that all aspects of the media contracts are on the table at one time,a figure of $1b for rugby league from 2103 appears to be realistic.That is also taking inflationary factors since 2007 into account. There is a 3 FTA station demand for rugby league now ,in 2007 there wasn't such an enthusiastic demand.Why? Because rugby league rates its whatsees off, on a consistent basis with its 4 pronged offerings.NRL/SOO/Tests/All Stars. The AFL may well get more,but I doubt substantially more. The main concern for rugby league is to maximise its income to the hilt,ensure all its stars are paid accordingly to their status,clubs are made viable by grants that match a $6m cap,that the grassroots receive much more funding than that which exists currently.That the international game is provided with additonal funding .That the game is available at decent viewing hours within every state territory of the wide brown land.
JVGO
Guest
Does this mean that Masterchef will be buying NRL players for Monday nights now?
Michael C
Guest
was 371K the peak or the average??? comparison of a 8/8.30-11/11.30 TV offering vs say a 30 min program at 7.30 or 6.30 is hardly fair re average. Peak wise, I guess is fair. That said, was it a above, below or just average night for TV ratings anyway?? From what I can see the 371K is the average,....which over a 3 hour broadcast is still not to be sneezed at. Although, last year a Coll v StK game rated through the roof in Melb. Any broadcast into Perth of delayed footy or cricket by hours and not just 30 odd minutes is always verging on doomed these days with so many portable net connected devices........plus radios.......it's rather easier for an NRL broadcast to function cohesively into just NSW and QLD.
Bam Bam
Roar Guru
Alright guys this isn't a code war, just a money talk. AFL will get their money based on the fact that they will show they have more games to show now and that they have great negotiators. RL will go for a lot and need good negotiators to do this. With internationals and SoO RL has more to sell. But AFL does have the NAB cup.
Jim Wilson
Guest
Beaver The population catchments (for TV ratings' purposes) for Brisbane is about 2.8 million & Sydney is 4.4 million. A difference of 1.6 million. The ratings for the Lions in Brisbane for the their last couple of Saturday Night games was 68K & 57K. There may have been about 14 k more with the HD channel & some locals in the Pay TV ratings in one of the games. They came a long last in their timeslot. The mid-season collapse in form may have have been a contributing factor but I think the union tests (which they go head-to- head) on Saturday Nights knock them about more. Brisbane got 160K on FTA last Saturday Night Wallaby's game. The AFL in Sydney & Brisbane is always going to be slaughtered by these RU tests when they go head-to-head.
Beaver Fever
Guest
Look i would say if monday night footy happened, to get decent ratings in Perth or Adelaide or even Brisbane you would need a local team from that state playing, otherwise if 2 Melbourne teams were playing the ratings would just be decent in Melbourne (you would think). I know the Brisbane i Lions are not going so well now, ( the team) but i understand they get around 100k of viewers in Brisbane for their games, that is a committed base in which to sell advertising during their games, that is a reasonable market and around the same size as Sydney but popuation wise Sydney has 2 million more people. I also dispute the statement in the article that Australian football is only popular in certain states, from my experience it is reasonably popular everywhere in this country, some states far more than others.
JVGO
Guest
What does that mean for Andrew D's dreams of Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday night football as well?
Jim Wilson
Guest
"many RL journos just can’t seem to accept that the ARL/NRL has NEVER been in the same ball park as the AFL in terms of following –" Why idoes the FNF NRL Live game consistently outrate the AFL FNF by about a quarter-of-a-million or more each week. Lat Friday the Broncos & Penrith game probably got as much as 400K extra viewers than the AFL game played that night OzTam Ratings 13 Nine’s Live Friday Night Football Nine 690,000 394,000 *** 296,000 *** *** 21 Seven’s Afl: Rnd 13: Hawthorn Vs Essendon Seven 580,000 10,000 370,000 6,000 105,000 90,000 Regionals for NRL 29LIVE FRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL437 http://www.thinktv.com.au/media/Media_Releases/Weekly_Ratings_Report-Week_24_&_25_2010.pdf No AFL made the Top 40 List. FNF NRL 1.127 million (690K + 437K) plus the late night southern capitals.
Jim Wilson
Guest
Here are the ratings for this year's lone AFL monday night game: 25 Seven’s AFL: Rnd 7: St Kilda Vs Carlton Seven 557,000 5,000 371,000 11,000 88,000 82,000 Some comments: AFL Monday Night is a ratings' dog http://televisionrant.blogspot.com/2010/05/afl-monday-night-game-is-ratings-dog.html "Channel Seven had a shocker last night and you can put it down to 3 letters... A.F.L. The Australian Football League is only popular in Victoria, South Australia, Western Australia, Tasmania and the Northern Territory - that's one really big state, two smaller ones and two tiny ones, the other two really big states worship at the altar of Rugby League. This creates a headache for the good folks in television - you see Television is a national business bu these sports are only successful in their home markets, despite the efforts of people to market the other code outside their home territories they largely go unnoticed. The end result is that when the AFL is playing in Melbourne and Adelaide and Perth - the broadcaster has to find something else for the people in Sydney and Brisbane to watch. This isn't a major problem on weekends, the AFL's natural primetime home is on Friday and Saturday nights, most nets just run movies on these nights so they can easily shuffle things around without disrupting their schedule in any great way, but lately the AFL has been encroaching on Monday nights eyeing off a prize of bigger licence fees in future rights negotiations for the promise of more prime-time matches. Only problem with this is Monday nights. Despite the overall decline in TV viewership, Monday is no Friday or Saturday - the nets wheel out some of their biggest shows on this night, Nine with their big name comedies and dramas, Ten with Masterchef (well that every night I guess) and Good News Week and even Seven with their factuals and female-skewing soaps. Last night Seven had the hot potato carrying a match between St Kilda and Carlton. Melbourne viewers missed out on The Zoo, Adelaide viewers lost Find My Family and nobody saw Desperate Housewives. Arguably Seven showed a level of uncommon shrewdness by pre-empting Housewives and Brothers & Sisters, avoiding last year's idiotic situation where the south was several weeks behind the north on airdates, but the replacement, a rerun of the movie Knocked Up in Sydney and Brisbane got severely knocked around by the competition. What's even worse is the performance of the AFL match itself - normally this kind of disruption is justified because the result in the southern states makes up for the low performance in the north - not this time - look at the numbers: Melbourne Top Shows 1 Masterchef 541k 2 Nine News 494k 3 ACA 446k 4 TT 427k 5 Two and a Half Men 424k 6 Seven News 413k 7 Two and a Half Men (r) 393k 8 The Mentalist 385k 9 The Big Bang Theory 384k 10 AFL 371k That's right 10th place for the night The situation is worse in Adelaide where the top program, Masterchef, drew 208k, Good News Week came in at number 10 with 115,000, even the 7pm project polled better at 13th position with 100k leaving the AFL in 15th place with a low 88,000 viewers In Perth it was compounded by not even being close to live - they pulled 82,000 and 21st place for the night beaten by tough competition like 6pm Simpsons, ABC News and Deal or no Deal! Well here's my tip for Seven, Ten and any other potential rights holder - if another one of these Monday night games comes up, kick it Foxtel and stick to your regular schedule, the monday night game is a dog - and it's not worth the damage to your night.
Mister Football
Roar Guru
TV networks are saying that the 9th AFL game per round, shown on Monday nights, is worth $100 million on its own, meaning the AFL will get at least $1 billion for its next TV rights deal with ease. http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/ninth-game-worth-100m/story-e6frf9ix-1225883442956
elbusto
Guest
Interesting debate and well informed. If you ignore Michael C and Mr Football its actually a beauty. Really has been a good read.