Australia’s Tim Cahill reacts after getting a red card during the World Cup group D soccer match between Germany and Australia at the stadium in Durban, South Africa, Sunday, June 13, 2010. (AP Photo/Julie Jacobson)
The Socceroos face Serbia in their final group match in Nelspruit at 4.30am Thursday knowing they need to win and hope that either Ghana knock off Germany or the Germans give The Black Stars a touch up in the other Group D match, played at the same time in Johannesburg.
I’ll have all the running analysis and permutations LIVE here, in the comments section below, so join me from 4.15am (EST) and be sure to share your thoughts before, during and after the game.
MY PREDICTION (as much in hope as anything); I saw enough in the performance against Ghana to suggest that the Roos can put a whole heap of pressure on Serbia and make life uncomfortable for them. Get in their face and, with a bit of luck, they might crumble. They were very lucky not to cop a few against a 10 man Germany, who over-powered them. If the Roos can control the pace of Milos Krasic and Milan Jovanovic on the flanks (and David Carney and Luke Wilkshire will be crucial in that respect), the game can definitely be won in central midfield, where Australia can get on top and over-run the likes of Zdravko Kuzmanovic, Dejan Stankovic and Milos Ninkovic.
3-1 to the Socceroos (2-0 will also do just fine), with the hope that Podolski actually converts his chances this time to give Germany a 3-0 hiding of a 10 man Ghana (with the Socceroos and Germany each scoring their final goal in the last 10 minutes – thrilling, edge of the seat stuff, with many twists!!).
That would give Ghana and the Roos four points each, with a -2 goal difference each, but the Roos would go through courtesy of having scored four goals (or three), to Ghana’s two.
A interesting sidenote, if the final scores are Germany 4-0, Australia 1-0, it will go down to a drawing of lots between Australia and Ghana, as both teams would be equal on points, equal on goal difference, with the result between them on Matchday 2 being a draw.
JR
Guest
Many thanks again Tony - I didn't join you at the time, but enjoyed reading the commentary in retrospect. Very proud of the 'roos. Agree with the comment about passionate Zelic! Well done him.
Tony Tannous
Expert
Thanks Vinay, it's hard not to love the World Cup, and the final Matchday twists and turns is one of the main reasons it's so enthralling. When everyone is alive, as it was in both groups this morning, it's particularly thrilling. The cards fell for us four years ago, not so this time. Such is the World Cup. Hopefully it gives us more motivation to come back, and get through, next time.
Vinay Verma
Roar Guru
Tony,well done,mate..good to see the passion coming through. We won the battle but lost the war. We'll live to fight another day.
AGO74
Guest
it also makes you wonder what if. if we had gone through we'd have been in a quarter of the draw with usa, korea and uruguay. anyway, durban did us in in the end. proud of the performance and very happy with the win.
Tony Tannous
Expert
Thanks for joining this LIVE running analysis of the Group D decider between the Socceroos and Serbia, won 2-1 by Pim Verbeek's men (that's the last time we say that). It was an enthralling, thrill-a-minute, contest, and I hope this LIVE running analysis captured the mood of the match and all the group permutations. In the end, the cards fell for Germany and Ghana, but we gave it an almighty crack and should be proud of a wonderful sporting team. Went out blazing. To those that joined and commented throughout, or to those joining since, thank for your input, feedback and comments, and see you again at the same time tomorrow when I cover NZ's final group game against Paraguay.
Al
Guest
He sounded drunk!
punter
Guest
Outstanding effort, totally dominated by Serbia in the 1st half, held their shape, held their belief. Cam e out in the 2nd half & we were unlucky not to be 3 up at one stage. One proud Aussie.
Al
Guest
Absolutely proud of the way Australia played this morning, they showed that they can beat technically excellent teams by playing with proper goal scoring options and playing with massive heart. Ultimately the first game has cost us, we always knew it was going to be an uphill battle from that result. If only the destruction at Durban could be reversed, we play with a few proper attacking options and with players in their right positions against merely an above average german team and it could have been all different.
Mega
Guest
Proud of the lads. Played their heart out and went harder than Serbia who only needed a draw.
Tony Tannous
Expert
From a tournament perspective, it's great that Ghana have gone though, even if it is at our expense. It's hard to say they don't deserve it. They shaded Serbia, only conceded one to Germany
James
Guest
Great effort boys, hard luck, and an outstanding analysis Tony, got everything right.
Cpaaa
Roar Pro
When australia play with nothing to loose.....we are brilliant and thats the way we should approach every game. Nothing to Loose and nothing to Fear with every game. THAT ARE THE LESSONS AUSTRALIA HAVE LEARNED, PIM.
Tony Tannous
Expert
Watching Verbeek speak to SBS, he put his hand up, admitting the goal difference against Germany cost us. Like the whole nation, as i noted at the time, at 2-0 to us, 1-0 to Germany, the camp was hoping for one more goal here, one more goal to Germany, but it wasn't to be.
Brett McKay
Expert
great game, magnificent effort, Australia finishes on a high..
Tony Tannous
Expert
Absolutely Guttered!!!! If only we could have Durban over again :-(
Cpaaa
Roar Pro
wow...an emotional foz.
Tony Tannous
Expert
Such a pity as we start to reflect on our campaign, that we cast our minds back to Matchday 1 and the Durban Debacle, which has obviously come back to haunt us. Credit goes to Verbeek and the lads for wrestling the initiative in the second half, after being outplayed in the first, and it's a real pity the tournament doesnt continue, for there is real belief flowing through the side now.
Michael
Guest
Why? They don't deserve anything. They got referee decisions all game.
Cpaaa
Roar Pro
i love the passion from zelic
Tony Tannous
Expert
Terrific effort, Australia finishes on 4 pts, same as four years ago. Not enough this time. With ten minutes to go, we needed two more goals, one for Germany, one for the Roos, as I had predicted/hoped for in my story above. Not to be. Serbia were obviously desperate themselves, and after getting one, Pantelic was caught offside a couple of times, and they had an appeal for a penalty turned away. Vidic's header hit Cahill on the hand, but unlike Kewell's against Ghana, that was NO WAY a penalty. Cahill knew nothing about it.