Dane Swan (L) and Jarryd Blair of Collingwood celebrate a goal as Tim Callan of the Western Bulldogs look on during the AFL 1st Qualifying Final match between the Collingwood Magpies and the Western Bulldogs at the MCG, Melbourne.
Come Saturday evening, the nightmare will be upon us – Collingwood will be AFL premiers. As much as those who don’t bleed black and white might hope that’s not the case, it seems that the Collingwood steam-train will continue and the Magpies will emerge triumphant over St Kilda in this weekend’s AFL Grand Final.
Although it is fashionable ahead of big matches to predict a tight finish, don’t be surprised if the Magpies win it in a canter. Collingwood are an exceptionally talented side, have one of the best coaches in the AFL, and are in excellent form heading into the biggest game of the season.
Collingwood’s finals form has been nothing short of exceptional. In the first week of the finals Collingwood ran riot over the hapless Bulldogs, and in last week’s preliminary final the Pies dethroned reigning premier Geelong with ease, slamming on seven goals to one in the first quarter.
If Collingwood can harness even a small amount of that form, they will account for last year’s beaten grand finalist this Saturday with ease.
Compared with the Magpies’ white-hot finals form, the Saints have been patchy in seeing off the same two opponents in their two finals outings. St Kilda stumbled over the line against Geelong in the first week by four points, and struggled to shake off the Bulldogs until some Nick Riewoldt heroics in the third quarter sparked the side to life last Saturday night.
Riewoldt looms as the key player in the match, and the Magpies have recalled defender Simon Prestigiacomo into the grand final team to man the St Kilda captain. Prestigiacomo will not be alone in attempting to curtail Riewoldt’s brilliance.
Magpies captain Nick Maxwell will come to his aid and zone off his direct opponent at every opportunity to prevent Riewoldt marking anywhere near goal. All Australian Harry O’Brien will also look to help out his fellow defenders in an effort to limit the impact Riewoldt has on the match.
Though Collingwood have the game’s best player this season in Dane Swan, and have undoubted star power in Alan Didak and Scott Pendlebury, their greatest strength lies in the depth of the side. The Magpies had eighteen players pole votes in Monday night’s Brownlow medal to St Kilda’s twelve – evidence that the Magpies bat a lot deeper than the Saints.
If the Grand Final turns into a dour, low-scoring match, the side which receives the biggest contribution from its bottom six players will likely emerge victorious, and Collingwood’s bottom six are more dependable and talented than their St Kilda counterparts.
The Saints will rely heavily on the skilful midfield trio of Nick Dal Santo, Brendon Goddard and Leigh Montagna to move the ball forward and setup play. It remains to be seen how this talented, albeit not particularly quick St Kilda midfield will deal with the ferocious tackling and pressure on the ball that has been a feature of the Magpies’ play this season.
The main concern for the Collingwood faithful will be that the side’s much talked about goal-kicking woes will return and bring down the Magpies’ premiership hopes. Given that the Pies prevailed by eight goals without bookends Nick Maxwell and Travis Cloke last time these two sides met, it is quite possible that Collingwood will be far enough in front on the scoreboard that any yips in front of goal will not matter.
It may not be a complete cakewalk, but expect the Magpies to easily account for the Saints this Saturday.
Tip: Collingwood by 33 points
Michael Filosi
Roar Guru
Maybe there was room for a piece titled "Why the AFL Grand Final will be a draw" prior to yesterday's match Shazza. After watching yesterday's game I've had a change of heart on who the eventual winner will be. Saints have momentum and the belief now that they can win. I'm picking the Saints to win come next Saturday.
Shazza
Guest
This article's title should be changed to - Why Collingwood will win the AFL Premiership...next week
Vinay Verma
Roar Guru
long time magpie, I'll take your word for it because I wasn't there but maybe the other 10% spoil it for the majority.The Saints website actually has a post from a fan that was there in 1993 and it was ugly. So there are two sides. It is always a small minority that go over the top. I think I am old enough to make up my own mind. Enjoy the game and go the Saints.
Stephen
Guest
Also, other fans conveniently forget teams like Geelong's GF failures, many other teams that have not progressed beyond the prelim final (e.g. Bulldogs) and times when Collingwood has got into a GF from fifth (under the old finals system). Still, it must be admitted that a strike rate of 14 premierships from 40 GFs could be better. Neither 2002 (close loss) nor the big loss in 2003 could be put down any kind of wobble. In getting into those GFs Collingwood knocked out consecutive minor premiers Port Adelaide. And Geelong only just got over Collingwood for its chance to play Port in 2007, its first premiership for a very long time.
Vinay Verma
Roar Guru
Michael, I am waiting for Strauss to walk out on the 'Gabba and be greeted with chants of "Chucker" (as in chucking a match to the Pakis according to Butt) Now there's a sledge!
long time magpie
Guest
Well Vinay, as someone that was actually there on that day I can speak with some authority. I can tell you that I never heard any racist comments, I doubt 90% of the crowd was even aware what was going on. Please don't allow youself to get caught up in mythical racist mudslinging which is its own form of bigotry.
Michael Filosi
Roar Guru
True, that was a very important moment in the history of the AFL Vinay. Winmar lifting his footy jumper to highlight to the Collingwood crowd that he was proud of his hertiage helped provide the impetus for the AFL to clamp down on racial vilification, and the game is better for it today. The two clubs have had a few sour moments more recently as well. Earlier this year when the Magpies and the Saints faced off there was the infamous confrontation between Milne from St Kilda and Collingwood coach Mick Malthouse. We can only hope there are a few fireworks come game time tomorrow!
Vinay Verma
Roar Guru
Michael, I will be cheering for the Saints and I hope they do it for Elvis Nicky Winmar. For me 1993 was a defining moment for AFL.Winmar lifting his jumper and pointing to his skin after the 1993 win over Collingwood said it all. From all reports the Collingwood supporters that day were as rabid as you could get.
Michael Filosi
Roar Guru
Well said Spiro. As much as I don't mind bagging the Mapgies on occasions, there is a small part of me which would like to see them get over the line this Saturday. I feel that Collingwood's time has come, and they're about to break the shackles of the dreaded "Colliwobbles." If they win, we'll be hearing about it for the next twenty years.
TomC
Guest
I suspect that either Collingwood will win by ten goals or the Saints will win by one. The Colliwobbles aren't a myth. They're a very real phenomenon based on the sheer pressure Magpies players feel when they're so close to winning a flag for their legion of braying fans. This is a young team that, even at their best, has sometimes struggled to convert all their chances. If things don't go well for them they might get nervous in a tight game. Nerves are a killer in a grand final. See Collingwood's last GF appearance in 2003. But if they can get off to a flyer, like they did against the Cats, then the jitters are calmed and they can play at their best. Plus, the Saints don't play the kind of free flowing footy you need to come back from a big deficit.
Mister Football
Guest
Very well put Spiro. Who can begrudge the pies a flag, even if their toothless supporters are enitrely intolerable at the best of times. The true reason that I want the pies to win is because I don't want my team to be on the bottom of the premiership table all on its lonesome.
Spiro Zavos
Guest
Oh dear, sports scribes like myself will have to put the Collywobbles cliche back in its cage for another decade or so. For someone who is not obsessed about Australian Rules Football there is, however, a special feeling in the heart for Collingwood. It is the battlers' club. It has been unfairly treated by the football gods of the four-posts. Its supporters are unacceptable in defeat and unbearable in triumph. And yet this passion is so strong that the outsider is very much moved by it. I'll be supporting Collingwood and believe, too, with the other posters, that this is the year for 'Good old Collingwood, forever.'
tfield
Roar Rookie
despite the annoyance of the collingwood army and there constant whingeing I think they'll topple Saints tomorrow. I think it will be closer than the Cats victory and saints will need to play it very tight and physical if they are to have a hope. The key for the saints are Riewoldt, Goddard and good clearances. Dane Swan will win the Norm Smith medal.
rahul
Guest
no saints are