Who will win the Ashes? The experts disagree

By Kersi Meher-Homji / Expert

Michael Slater predicts that Australia will win the 2010-11 Ashes 3-1. As to be expected, former England captain Tony Greig, disagrees. He predicts England to win 2-1.

Ever the diplomat, Richie Benaud believes the series will be 2-2 before the final Test in Sydney.

Shane Warne refused to speculate. “I’m not going to say like Pigeon [Glenn McGrath] that Australia will win 5-zip.” Then in a light-hearted vein he showed some similarities between him and Tiger Woods, as all present guffawed and clapped. This was at the Ashes launch at the SCG organized by Channel 9, Cricket Australia, Vodafone and Victoria Bitter (VB).

Like many Australians (including the media), Warne is disappointed that Nathan Hauritz has been sacked from the Australian team for the Brisbane Test starting on Thursday. And in some cases, the same media who are now criticizing the selectors for axing Hauritz were previously after Hauritz’s blood themselves. You can’t please everyone, can you?

In my preferred team, as published on The Roar last week, I had also omitted Hauritz.

Back to the Cricket Australia function at the SCG. Mingling with the media and corporate CEOs was the Channel 9 TV team and current players Ricky Ponting, Simon Katich and Doug Bollinger among others.

Mark Nicholas was the Master of Ceremonies and he started the extravaganza with a breathtaking Ashes footage on a huge screen. It depicted the Best of Ashes heroes from Don Bradman to Ponting via Benaud and Warney.

Nicholas first interviewed Ponting, Katich and Bollinger. Ponting said that he was still as passionate about the game as he was when he played his first Test. He also stated that before the tour of India a couple of months ago, the Australian cricketers trained along with pilots to focus their concentration and boost their confidence.

Katich and Bollinger were looking forward to play their first Ashes Tests in Australia.

Benaud recalled the first Ashes Test he had heard on radio when he was only five. Greig declared that his childhood hero was Douglas Jardine who had given Bradman a tough time in the Bodyline series of 1932-33.

Slater recalled the 1993 Lord’s Ashes Test when he scored a brilliant 152. “On that tour I did not expect to play a Test. And when I scored THAT century at Lord’s, I was so emotional that I kissed the crest on my baggy green cap.”

At the conclusion, the CEO of VB beer promised free beer to every Australian over the age of 18 provided Australia regains the Ashes.
That means 14 million beer cans littering the streets of Australia on January 8 if Ponting overcomes England skipper Andrew Strauss’s challenge. Going on current form, I doubt it.

Yesterday was the ribbon-cutting ceremony of the International Cricket Hall of Fame at the Bradman Museum in Bowral. Among those present were Test cricketers Richie and John Benaud, Neil Harvey, Brian Booth and the former Prime Minister John Howard.

Ricky Ponting, the Global Ambassador for this Hall of Fame, could not attend as he has a much more serious job on hand: Beat the cocky Englishmen in the Brisbane Test.

The Crowd Says:

2010-11-24T13:12:48+00:00

Jason

Guest


Re Haigh's XI, I would make quite a few changes: - there is no need for both Miller AND Gilchrist. Great to have one mercurial match winner but when you add Harvey to the mix the middle order looks a bit short of stickability when you have the likes of AB or Steve Waugh in the wings. Personally, I can't comprehend any Best of Australian XI without Border. Also, I would always have one of Waugh or Ponting ahead of Harvey. - Harvey's record had a very similar trajectory to Morris' - spectacular start against war weary England and second rate South AFrica. Mediocre second half of their careers. So if you exclude Morris you should exclude Harvey. - Davo for Lindwall because of his left handedness and as bowlers I don't believe there was much between them. Otherwise the bowling looks spot on with Warne the "worst" bowler going by the stats!. I'd hate to have to try to score runs against them, especially with a slips cordon containing Chappell and SImmo and an infield with Davo and Border. FWIW, my post war XI would have been Simmo, Hayden, Bradman, Chappell, Border, Ponting, Gilchrist, Davidson, Warne, Lillee, McGrath

2010-11-24T12:35:22+00:00

Camel

Guest


Siddle's bowling average in Tests at the "Gabba",is 46.He has played only 4 games and taken just 2 wickets. At the W.A.C.A in Perth.He has the Brabmanesque average of 128,taking only 1 wicket in 7 test innings. By the time we get to Adelaide.A very lonely one wicket! at the Staggering average of 120.I might add that his strike rate for this one wicket........198. Are you still around Dougie??

2010-11-24T11:48:49+00:00

Kermit is a frog

Roar Pro


Happy to point out here an 'I told you so' re Siddle. It was getting frustrating listening to the NSW media pushing Dougie when they ignored logic and the evidence before them!!!

2010-11-24T01:16:21+00:00

Kermit is a frog

Roar Pro


if for an Aust XI post WWII, if you get the particular player at the peak of fitness, and for one match only? or for a hypothetical series, Bruce Reid would be near to selection. If criteria is the best team to play for you for 10 years then perhaps not. (just a partial left field one).

2010-11-23T22:52:51+00:00

Kermit is a frog

Roar Pro


re Siddle vs Bollinger. The preparation has a lot to do with it when heading into a 5 day test match. And think back 2 years when Siddle was fit and firing against Sth Africa, the Australian attack probably hasn't looked as good since (since Siddle broke down). Bollinger did quite well last summer against Pakistan and the West Indies, 25 wkts in 5 tests and near enough to 21. Siddle blew out his career figures when he was playing whilst he probably shouldn't have been. I gather that selectors and Siddle alike have learned to make sure he's fit and properly prepared. As a sweeping statement - The selectors have to make sure they don't take underdone and injured bowlers into test matches - especially the Ashes. So, presently, Siddle really must play ahead of Bollinger. However, should Hilfenhaus be an automatic in?? I like him, don't get me wrong, but his position seems unquestioned. However, I could envisage a pace attack of Siddle, Bollinger and Johnson, with Watson as back up. 2 left armers, 2 right armers.

2010-11-23T22:40:05+00:00

Kermit is a frog

Roar Pro


The thing I find odd, is Callum Ferguson is deemed next best (or rivally Kawaja), on the back of a first class avg of sub 36. How did that suddenly become worthy of a prized spot in a test batting order?? Cam White (as much as I love him because he's a Bairnsdale boy - far East Gippsland, 4 hours from Melb) averages 42 and is put forward by some. Andrew McDonald ave is 40 and this year he's smacked 3 centuries and broken hand aside was NOT being considered. Make sense of that. Ferguson at 36, or McDonald at 40 plus a 1st class bowling average of 33 to boot!! Oh how the likes of Siddons, Lehmann and Hodge must wish that they were in their mid 20s now!! Based on averages, Steve Smith is one of the most form batters from 2009/10 domestic season. Forget Ferguson et al, and get Smith in as a batter who might trundle one or two overs. And I don't even like him!!

2010-11-23T22:24:04+00:00

Bayman

Guest


I guess when you're talking about players of the quality of Chappell and Ponting it's difficult to choose one over another but we do it all the time. For example, I'd keep Chappell (instead of Ponting). I think he generally faced better quality bowling than Ponting has done in the last several years. He was just as good a fieldsman (and a better slipper) and he was a handy bowler - not that he'd do much bowling in this team. Another thing in favour of Chappell was that as he got older his game didn't deteriorate the way Ponting's has. Softer hands, better shot selection, more patience. In other words, he batted like it was a Test match.

2010-11-23T22:12:02+00:00

Bayman

Guest


JohnB, Yes, it's a pretty fair side but I tend to support your contention that Morris for Simpson may have been a possibility. Perhaps Gideon has been swayed by the "Bedser's Bunny" aura surrounding Morris but then he did open the batting to Bedser's bowling on many occasions. Not surprising then that Bedser knocked him over a few times. Morris also made a truck load of runs during that time including double centuries and tons in each innings. In that period just after the war, and certainly in 1948, Morris was arguably the best player in the world. I'm not sure Simmo has ever rated that highly. Simpson was, however, a quality batsman, an extremely good leg-spinner and the world's best slipper - then and now. I also agree that Davidson may have got a spot instead of McGrath. Left-hander, quicker than McGrath, could swing the ball (unlike anyone today), could bat (from memory, nine first-class hundreds) and an ability in the field that McGrath could only dream about. For all that, though, a very good side and all match-winners.

2010-11-23T14:42:32+00:00

Lolly

Guest


I agree that they both got good balls, all though Ferguson looked horribly caught on the crease in two minds, but then good bowling does that to you. You can never hold a first ball duck against anyone. You get a great ball first up and it is mostly luck if you don't get out to it. I can't believe that people are holding Aus A performances against our youngsters. I did not mean that in the comment above, it was more about that I had to watch two such wince-inducing players bat for Australia and I would have really liked to have seen Khawaja as I've seen him so rarely. In the case of O'Keefe he performed extremely well in it and it meant nothing as to his selection chances so it shows you how much notice the selectors really take of these matches. Hussey has screwed up time and time again against much worse attacks than that, Johnson kindly kicked McDonald out of the game for Vic then Huss scores a ton against an pedestrian attack that is practically on one leg and he's set for the series. It's bs.

2010-11-23T08:09:08+00:00

Vinay Verma

Roar Guru


Pity,that means North looks certain to play.

2010-11-23T05:26:57+00:00

jameswm

Guest


Good - Smith should be out there playing Shield cricket every week. Word is they'll go for Siddle ahead of Bollinger. Heaven forbid. Why not put McKay in too, if you want straight up and down line and length plodders. Bollinger gets more movement and is more of a wicket-taker. As for Haigh's XI - I'd have Ponting ahead of Chappell. I can't fault 6-11 - who could argue with that, though Thommo at his 1975 peak? He was frightening!

2010-11-23T05:17:34+00:00

Kersi Meher-Homji

Guest


Just heard that Steven Smith is withdrawn from the Australian squad. So it will be Doherty making his Test debut in Brisbane. JohnB, you raise interesting points on Gideon's selection. I had also selected the Best post-Bradman Australian team for the Roar a few months ago and found it very difficult. But I had included Ponting.

2010-11-23T03:35:05+00:00

JohnB

Guest


Kersi, I assume your point (and it's a fair one) is that there are several players in that team from the team that played up to 2003, and barely the one contender from the current team Haigh's is a pretty fair side it has to be said - but there's no such thing as a lay down misere in fantasy teams. Dropping Simpson for Arthur Morris is an obvious possibility first cab off the rank, though that does give you 2 left handers to open. For me, Ponting, Greg Chappell and Harvey are always a toss up so if you're only picking 2 of them there's always an argument for the 3rd one. Some might argue you should pick the best keeper available, not the best batsman-keeper (those arguing that way would classify Gilchrist in that way presumably). As you flag by mentioning Benaud, do you need 4 right arm fast bowlers? Why not another spinner (and handy batsman) Benaud, a left-armer Alan Davidson or a different type of fast bowler (Thomson) for say McGrath? Allan Border - great player, but in conscience hard to see who he would displace here unless you ruled that Bradman should be counted as a pre-war player.

2010-11-23T02:32:09+00:00

Kersi Meher-Homji

Guest


Gideon Haigh selects the best Australian Post WWII Ashes XI in The Wisden Cricketer (December 2010). Here it is in batting order: Bob Simpson, Matthew Hayden, Don Bradman, Greg Chappell, Neil Harvey, Keith Miller, Adam Gilchrist, Ray Lindwall, Shane Warne, Dennis Lillee and Glenn McGrath. To me the notable omissions are Allan Border, Richie Benaud, Ricky Ponting and Jeff Thomson. But then who can you drop from Haigh's XI?

2010-11-22T23:48:46+00:00

Kersi Meher-Homji

Guest


Cameron White is an ideal ODI player. He could be promoted as the captain. But at Test level, give me Uzzy (Usman) Khawaja. Also, Mark Waugh thinks very highly of him.

2010-11-22T23:01:19+00:00

jameswm

Guest


Lolly did you see the two balls that got Ferguson out? One was from a right hand quick that landed on middle and would almost have hit top of off - unplayable and unfortunately Ferguson was good enough to snick it. In the 2nd dig he got a mully grubber. Khawaja got a good one short of a length on or outside off that moved away a little - first ball. You can't blame a batsman for getting out to that - that's good bowling. It's rubbish that either didn't turn up or batted poorly. Each looked perfetly in control (admittedly not for long [esp Khawaja in the 2nd dig!], but compare them with White and Hughes) until they got a very good ball early on. That's cricket.

2010-11-22T13:32:53+00:00

Rowdy

Guest


It would be nice if we could stop all this 'cocky poms' rubbish - the team's as well-prepared as it can be and has made a decent start to the tour, but I've not met any England supporter who thinks it's going to be anything but tight and that maybe we'll squeak it.

2010-11-22T13:00:17+00:00

Brett McKay

Expert


Plugger, Hodge was only asked - and answered - about being available for the Australian one-day side last night, not the Test side. He has retired from first class cricket completely, and so isn't available for Test selection..

2010-11-22T11:35:40+00:00

Kersi Meher-Homji

Guest


When Inside Cricket magazine (December 2010) asked Khawaja "If the call came would you be ready?", he replied with a flashing smile, "If you'd asked me when I was 12 years old, I reckon I'd have given you this answer -- 'of course I'm ready for it!' And I don't think anything has changed." I would call that ambitious confidence. Mark my words, he is a high flyer, being a qualified pilot. His favourite cricketer? "Brian Lara, I loved him." He was a left-handed batsman too.

2010-11-22T11:11:07+00:00

Lolly

Guest


Watching him and Hughes bat together was an exercise in un/non/dis-aesthetically pleasing batting. They both made me wince, Hughes regularly. But you can't deny their effectiveness and the far more attracttive players barely turned up.

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