None of the teams Blackadder has been associated with, as a coach, in the UK and now the Crusaders for two years, has won a title.
And this year he has lost Mark Hammett, the former Crusaders forwards coach who Deans himself felt should have succeeded him after he came over here to coach the Wallabies.
Hammett, a hard-nosed hooker in his playing days and a tough, no-nonsense coach, is having his first year with the Hurricanes.
Trying to make the talented Hurricanes play as a team, respecting their patterns of play and the ball, has defeated a list of good coaches.
If Hammett can get some discipline into their play, as well encouraging the flair of players like the newcomer winger Julian Savea (potentially another Jonah Lomu), the Hurricanes should have a strong season.
And the other New Zealand teams?
The Blues, as usual, have a talented squad that play as they like, generally like headless chooks with no idea what they are doing and where they are going.
So far their coach Pat Lam has been unable to get any consistency or pattern from his players. But if Lam does get some pattern into the play of his side, then the Blues can be as good as any side in the tournament.
The same criticism applies to Ian Foster and his talented squad, the Chiefs.
Foster has brought back, as a player at age 37, Tana Umaga. Umaga remains a great defensive player and a fine reader of the game.
He might be able to bring some order to the Chiefs back line. But then, there still remains the problem of Stephen Donald, a player who moves around the field like a puppet with his strings cut.
Again, like the Blues, the Chiefs have the potential to be world-beaters. Presumably, a coach some time will get the Chiefs to play as a team. When this happens, the other teams should look out.
It is hard to know, from this distance, who will emerge as the best of the South African sides. Experts who should know believe the Sharks will be very strong. The IRB’s boss of referees, Paddy O’Brien, is picking the Sharks to win the tournament.
Does he know something the rest of us don’t know yet?
The Bulls, champions in three out of the last four tournaments, have Fourie du Preez back. I regard du Preez, at least before his injury, as the best player in the world.
With Matfield ruling the lineouts and du Preez controlling the use of the ball, you’d expect the Bulls to be a formidable contender once again.
They are almost impossible to beat at Johannesburg and they have developed a game that can be successful out of Africa.
We get now to the Australian sides. The first point I would make here is the new finals system, I believe, helps whichever team that emerges as the best Australian side.
There will be a six-team finals race. The top teams in each franchise, in order of the most number of points they accumulate in the pool rounds will be seeded 1,2,3.
The next three teams in order of points accumulated make up the final six.
The first round of the finals sees three (at home) playing six, and four against five.
The lowest ranked winner from the first finals play team one (at that team’s home ground): the other winner plays team two (again at that team’s home ground).
The winners of the semi-final play each other in the final, at the home ground of the team with the most number of points.
I hope this is clear enough.
What is means is that there is a decided advantage in the finals for a team being top of its conference. It is guaranteed a finals spot, and also at least one home ground final.
Now how does this help the best Australian side?
Teams in each conference play each other twice, for a total of eight local derby matches each. They then play eight (not ten) sides out of their conference.
This loading of local derbies works for the best Australian sides, I believe, because the Australian conference, in totality, is the weakest of the conferences. A generally weak team like the Highlanders, at home, is more than capable of beating any of its strongest NZ conference rivals.
The Cheetahs can do the same thing in South Africa.
But the Reds or the Waratahs (my pick for the best Australian side) should easily account for the Melbourne Rebels and the Western Force, at home and away.
The Waratahs, also, do not play the Hurricanes or the Stormers, two teams that often defeat the Waratahs.
What about the Brumbies?
It seems to me that this is not a happy franchise. We have Matt Giteau virtually demanding the number 10 jersey when Matt Toomua would seem to be the better choice, with Giteau at inside centre. Rocky Elsom is out for a while, and without him the team lacks firepower in the forwards.
The Reds thrashed the Crusaders in a pre-season frolic, which may or may not be a sign of something significant. There is no doubt that towards the end of last season, the Reds were the best Australian side.
Can they continue on from this form, and intensify it?
They do have a terrific backline, with pace to burn from 7 through to 15. But the forwards don’t impress me, even with James Horwill back, as an outfit that can dominate other sides week after week.
I hope I am wrong because the Reds are committed to play entertaining and winning rugby. Their membership numbers are well over the 10,000 while the Waratahs (with a much bigger supporter base) are struggling to get up to 8,000.
The Waratahs have the players, a team loaded with Wallabies in the forwards and backs. They have lacked enterprise and a playing system that released the attacking genius of players like Kurtley Beale, Rob Horne, Drew Mitchell and Berrick Barnes.
Hopefully, Chris Hickey, now in his third year as coach, is confident enough to allow the Waratahs to play the traditional Waratahs running game. If this happens, the team should be a strong contender for its first Super Rugby championship.
It is not only the bookies that favour the Crusaders, though. The Rugby Review magazine asked 14 experts from the three SANZAR countries (and Paddy O’Brien) to pick the winner of the 2011 Super Rugby Tournament.
Eight out of the fourteen picked the Crusaders; three picked the Bulls; two picked the Sharks; and one, John Blondin, a former Waratahs half-back, picked the Waratahs.
Do Roarers think that only four teams have a chance of winning the tournament? What about the Reds, Stormers and Hurricanes?
Bob
Guest
NZ teams playing in Melb, Syd and Bris- hardly an away game for them. They will have more supporters there than if they were playing at home!
Loftus
Guest
I'm very sorry but I just had to chuckle at ''The IRB’s boss of referees, Paddy O’Brien, is picking the Sharks to win the tournament.'' Wahahaahhaaha,I'm sorry. What the hell does Paddy know about rugby? Spiro,does Paddy have any more insightful tips for us mortals? And please,the Bulls are from Pretoria and the Lions are from Johannesburg. Loads of comedians on this website lately,predicting the Stormers winning or playing in the final.It's not gonna happen.The winner will come from either Crusaders or Bulls(and maybe Warathas).The rest can keep on dreaming if they want to.
BennO
Guest
Yes.
ben
Guest
The Reds have the game with everyone fit, that can win on the road. They beat the Bulls and the Stomers last year.....they should take care of the Australian Conference, becasue dont forget their forward pack only has to provide a modicum of ball...they dont have to be dominant. The Tahs are like the Poms, if you climb ontop upfront they are done.
Wall-Nut
Guest
Well picture this people, Western Force beat the Waratahs, Reds and the Brumbies in 2009 and I think they have a team just as good this year. Australia having the weakest conference...... I don't know about that last year Waratahs finished 3rd should have been 2nd, Reds 5th, Brumbies 6th both so close to top 4 on points, Force 13th half the team injured. If the Stormers were the same crap team they have been in the past years except last year this is how it would've looked. Bulls Waratahs Crusaders Reds Brumbies Even put the Stormers back in Bulls Stormers Waratahs Crusaders Reds Brumbies Seems to me OZ ain't that weak -- Comment left via The Roar's iPhone app. Download The Roar's iPhone App in the App Store here.
p.Tah
Guest
What on earth does this post have to do with the article... Has it been sucked down a vortex from another forum and dumped here?
Russell Small
Guest
Remember the Force were the top Aussie team of 2009. And their membership is around 15000+ from probably the smallest supporter base of the Aust sides. Last year injuries cut their chances before the first kick off but by the end of the season they could beat the Stormers and Crusaders.
Ironawe
Guest
Ummm, we've already got a Perth based team....
Jerry
Guest
Seems to me the Bok teams that aren't the Cheetahs and Lions have a big advantage in that they get to play 4 matches against the Cheetahs and Lions.
ohtani's jacket
Guest
Blackadder has taken the Crusaders to the semis twice but without a high enough finish to avoid a semi in South Africa. Deans' Crusaders were able to win from 2nd place (thanks Jerry) but as far as I recall no side has won the competition from 4th place. There's nothing about Blackadder's results so far to suggest that the Crusaders can't win another title just as winning one would hardly make him great. I doubt very much that the bookies have pegged the Crusaders as favourites because of anything to do with Blackadder, and frankly there are very few coaches in the competition with championship winning experience. It's a fairly obvious point that you've won nothing till you win something. Anyway, Spiro had said the same thing about Blackadder numerous times, not to mention Rob Penney. Are you sure you understand what he's saying?
el gamba
Guest
Only if you have won at least two away from home.
Geoff Brisbane
Guest
Ok experts, so there are some teams who won't be playing each other in the round robin matches (man and I thought the NRL was stupid) how the heck can you call yourself the best team when you haven't played everyone????? This will only favour the weaker conferences or am I mistaken??? What a stupid scenario. What do you think???
TommyM
Guest
Is that the Rebels that almost beat the Crusaders a week ago?
TommyM
Guest
"If you are not playing every team I think it loses some credibility from a purist standpoint." Does that mean that winning the World Cup has no credibility?
Max
Guest
I actually think this years comp is shaping up to be a cracker. The Saffas look set to have three very competitive sides in the Sharks, Bulls and Stormers. Also the recent rise of the Lions makes things interesting. The NZ conference has 4 very talented, if sometimes erratic, sides and the new set-up at the Highlanders as well as their fantastic new stadium has me interested. And Australia, well- I genuinely think this conference is anyone's guess. Rebels are shaping well, Reds are looking good, Tahs are strong, Brumbies are always contenders and the force will only continue to get better. Can't wait for the weekend :)
katzilla
Roar Guru
Good call Tony, The Force beat 2 of the semi finalists last year and weren't exactly spanked by the other 2. I have no idea why people think they're not a shot at 2nd spot in this conference, they can obviously roll top foreign teams at home, if they can maintain some consistency against their over rated brethren then they'll be laughing all the way to a semi in South Africa. Ill be backing them in a few of their home games this year, especially against 'Real Madrid'
katzilla
Roar Guru
"Experts who should know believe the Sharks will be very strong" Can you go tell those experts please that John Plumtree also hasn't won the Super 14 or another major international tournament and therefore their opinion is misplaced. I agree with them, I think the Sharks will be playing in the final if not at home, but by your Logic they shouldn't be because their coach hasn't been there yet. Never mind that Blackadder has taken the Crapsaders to the semis whilst playing half a season without McCaw and Carter.
Tony the Sandgroper
Guest
Good to hear the East Coast press writing off the Force before the first round, it makes for a surprised "who would have thought" headline later in the season. Clever planning Spiro, it is always hard to inject something new. Who would the finals teams have been based on last years results on a home and away basis? Roll on the weekend.
The Bush
Roar Guru
Super Rugby Explanation: http://www.superxv.com/format/ This explanation makes not mention of this year being different to next year, except in so far as the compeition starts earlier...
The Bush
Roar Guru
Mad Dog, Do you have a source for that information? My understanding is that this is how the competition will be from now on. The only difference this year, is that it starts a little earlier and it doesn't stop for the June/In-bound internationals. If teams have to play each of the other ten teams, then that introduced more rounds, more byes (and thus more rounds) and the old three-game-two-game away trip to South Africa. How do you even that out when every three years it is broken by a World Cup Schedule? Having said that, if you could provide a source for that information, that's very interesting and will make for a much longer season.