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The bookmakers have the Crusaders as strong favourites to win the 2011 Super Rugby tournament. I believe, though, that there are a couple of elements that might have been overlooked in the betting spread. To begin with, Todd Blackadder has yet to demonstrate that he is in the same class as a coach as Robbie Deans.
None of the teams Blackadder has been associated with, as a coach, in the UK and now the Crusaders for two years, has won a title.
And this year he has lost Mark Hammett, the former Crusaders forwards coach who Deans himself felt should have succeeded him after he came over here to coach the Wallabies.
Hammett, a hard-nosed hooker in his playing days and a tough, no-nonsense coach, is having his first year with the Hurricanes.
Trying to make the talented Hurricanes play as a team, respecting their patterns of play and the ball, has defeated a list of good coaches.
If Hammett can get some discipline into their play, as well encouraging the flair of players like the newcomer winger Julian Savea (potentially another Jonah Lomu), the Hurricanes should have a strong season.
And the other New Zealand teams?
The Blues, as usual, have a talented squad that play as they like, generally like headless chooks with no idea what they are doing and where they are going.
So far their coach Pat Lam has been unable to get any consistency or pattern from his players. But if Lam does get some pattern into the play of his side, then the Blues can be as good as any side in the tournament.
The same criticism applies to Ian Foster and his talented squad, the Chiefs.
Foster has brought back, as a player at age 37, Tana Umaga. Umaga remains a great defensive player and a fine reader of the game.
He might be able to bring some order to the Chiefs back line. But then, there still remains the problem of Stephen Donald, a player who moves around the field like a puppet with his strings cut.
Again, like the Blues, the Chiefs have the potential to be world-beaters. Presumably, a coach some time will get the Chiefs to play as a team. When this happens, the other teams should look out.
It is hard to know, from this distance, who will emerge as the best of the South African sides. Experts who should know believe the Sharks will be very strong. The IRB’s boss of referees, Paddy O’Brien, is picking the Sharks to win the tournament.
Does he know something the rest of us don’t know yet?
The Bulls, champions in three out of the last four tournaments, have Fourie du Preez back. I regard du Preez, at least before his injury, as the best player in the world.
With Matfield ruling the lineouts and du Preez controlling the use of the ball, you’d expect the Bulls to be a formidable contender once again.
They are almost impossible to beat at Johannesburg and they have developed a game that can be successful out of Africa.
We get now to the Australian sides. The first point I would make here is the new finals system, I believe, helps whichever team that emerges as the best Australian side.
There will be a six-team finals race. The top teams in each franchise, in order of the most number of points they accumulate in the pool rounds will be seeded 1,2,3.
The next three teams in order of points accumulated make up the final six.
The first round of the finals sees three (at home) playing six, and four against five.
The lowest ranked winner from the first finals play team one (at that team’s home ground): the other winner plays team two (again at that team’s home ground).
The winners of the semi-final play each other in the final, at the home ground of the team with the most number of points.
I hope this is clear enough.
What is means is that there is a decided advantage in the finals for a team being top of its conference. It is guaranteed a finals spot, and also at least one home ground final.
Now how does this help the best Australian side?
Teams in each conference play each other twice, for a total of eight local derby matches each. They then play eight (not ten) sides out of their conference.
This loading of local derbies works for the best Australian sides, I believe, because the Australian conference, in totality, is the weakest of the conferences. A generally weak team like the Highlanders, at home, is more than capable of beating any of its strongest NZ conference rivals.
The Cheetahs can do the same thing in South Africa.
But the Reds or the Waratahs (my pick for the best Australian side) should easily account for the Melbourne Rebels and the Western Force, at home and away.
The Waratahs, also, do not play the Hurricanes or the Stormers, two teams that often defeat the Waratahs.
What about the Brumbies?
It seems to me that this is not a happy franchise. We have Matt Giteau virtually demanding the number 10 jersey when Matt Toomua would seem to be the better choice, with Giteau at inside centre. Rocky Elsom is out for a while, and without him the team lacks firepower in the forwards.
The Reds thrashed the Crusaders in a pre-season frolic, which may or may not be a sign of something significant. There is no doubt that towards the end of last season, the Reds were the best Australian side.
Can they continue on from this form, and intensify it?
They do have a terrific backline, with pace to burn from 7 through to 15. But the forwards don’t impress me, even with James Horwill back, as an outfit that can dominate other sides week after week.
I hope I am wrong because the Reds are committed to play entertaining and winning rugby. Their membership numbers are well over the 10,000 while the Waratahs (with a much bigger supporter base) are struggling to get up to 8,000.
The Waratahs have the players, a team loaded with Wallabies in the forwards and backs. They have lacked enterprise and a playing system that released the attacking genius of players like Kurtley Beale, Rob Horne, Drew Mitchell and Berrick Barnes.
Hopefully, Chris Hickey, now in his third year as coach, is confident enough to allow the Waratahs to play the traditional Waratahs running game. If this happens, the team should be a strong contender for its first Super Rugby championship.
It is not only the bookies that favour the Crusaders, though. The Rugby Review magazine asked 14 experts from the three SANZAR countries (and Paddy O’Brien) to pick the winner of the 2011 Super Rugby Tournament.
Eight out of the fourteen picked the Crusaders; three picked the Bulls; two picked the Sharks; and one, John Blondin, a former Waratahs half-back, picked the Waratahs.
Do Roarers think that only four teams have a chance of winning the tournament? What about the Reds, Stormers and Hurricanes?