Australian cricket captain Steve Waugh (left), and Vice Captain Shane Warne (right) display the World Cup Cricket trophy. Australia’s 1 Day Cricket World Cup winning team drove in a motorcade down Sydney’s main street to celebrate in a ticket tape parade with over 100,000 well wishers attending. AAP Photo/ Pablo Ramire
The art of prophecy, for all its temptations, offers little but the chance to embarrass oneself in the near future. And yet, like appearing in Flava Flav reality TV shows, or going to Texan pubs to ride the mechanical bull, people keep lining up for their turn at indignity.
With the start of the World Cup only days away, let’s see how the main contenders’ chances look from here.
The ICC has gone to some lengths to ensure that, barring miracles, the non-Test-playing nations won’t pass the group stage at the expense of more credible and lucrative rivals. Of the ten teams who remain, six don’t make the frontrunners group.
New Zealand have been in freefall recently, with whitewashes against Bangladesh and India in subccontinental conditions.
West Indies could spring a surprise if their big hitters click, but their bowling lacks bite. Bangladesh are on the rise, but their history of nervy performances in big tournaments is against them.
Zimbabwe, on the comeback trail, will be more realistically at the level of their Associate competitors. England, while remaining in many pundits’ reckoning, are battling exhaustion at the end of a gruelling southern summer, and have too many troops in triage.
Clinical finisher Eoin Mogan was their most important player – when he was ruled out, England’s chances dropped from view.
Pakistan are the most dangerous team outside the top four, on the back of recent good form in New Zealand. Veterans like Shahid Afridi, Misbah-ul-Haq, and Shoaib Akthar look hungry. The torrid last twelve months will be a spur. “I want people to realize,” said Shoaib recently, “that still, very honourable people play for our country.”
Despite missing their main pace bowlers, Shoaib’s partnership with Wahab Riaz and Umar Gul looks potent. Abdur Rehman and Saeed Ajmal form a knowledgeable spin pair.
Abdul Razzaq showed his incredible late-innings power during the recent South African series in the Middle East, while Umar Akmal is also explosive. Younis Khan, the team’s class act, played himself back into form in New Zealand.
Still, all of these factors would need to click at the same time to carry Pakistan home. Their ground fielding and catching is among the worst at the tournament, and this could well be the difference. It would be a victory for the romantics and the scriptwriters if Pakistan were to get up.
Of the four likeliest teams, the recent insistence of South African players that they are not chokers seems to indicate that they’re worried about choking – hardly a good sign.
Colin Ingram has only played 11 ODIs. JP Duminy came back to earth after a Mike Hussey start to his career. AB de Villiers insists he’s happy to keep wicket, but looks uncomfortable, and his batting has dipped accordingly. Keeping to spinners on turning tracks, a couple of de Villiers mistakes could prove crucial.
Dale Steyn and Morne Morkel are the best new-ball pair in the world, but the support act of Wayne Parnell and Lonwabo Tsotsobe is a few rungs down from that. In terms of spin, Johan Botha is a canny operator, though more strangler than striker. 31-year-old Pakistan-born leggie Imran Tahir provides the romance.
Much will depend on the batting of Graeme Smith, Hashim Amla, and Jacques Kallis at one, two, and three. If they flower, they can carry the batting with them. If they fall, so do the Proteas.
India have the biggest batting names high up the order, with Virender Sehwag, Sachin Tendulkar, and Gautam Gambhir filling the top three spots. On prestige alone this should make them favourites.
But Sehwag has never quite replicated his Test form in the shorter game, and Tendulkar has played a total of two ODIs since his double-hundred a year ago. All three are also coming back from minor injuries.
Down the order will be interesting too – if MS Dhoni is capable of fireworks, Yusuf Pathan is a napalm truck parked in a steelworks while the driver has a nice cigar. A couple of devastating knocks against South Africa in recent weeks show that he’s in top form.
India’s bowling is their weaker suit – Zaheer Khan and Harbhajan Singh are their only blue-chip options, while much weight will be carried by supporting spinners Piyush Chawla and R Ashwin. An out-of-form Ashish Nehra and the never-predictable Sreesanth give the pace bowling an uncertain air.
Australia will price well with bookies due to their World Cup pedigree and recent 6-1 owning of England, but the numbers are deceptive. When England set several targets of around 300, Australia’s dubious bowling displays were masked by great chasing. When England were shot out for less, many of the wickets came down to poor batting over anything else.
Confused selection policies mean that Australia has arrived with an unbalanced side, and it’s hard to believe the players aren’t unsure of their roles and futures. Not long ago Nathan Bracken was the world’s No. 1 ODI bowler; one injury later he was a forgotten man. James Hopes seemed indispensable, now he’s vanished without a trace.
The problem for Australia is the lack of a holding bowler. Brett Lee, Mitchell Johnson, Doug Bollinger and Shaun Tait are all about attack, and all liable to be expensive.
Picking a pace battery on subcontinental decks was a dubious choice to begin with, but even more so when there’s no-one in the Bracken mould to tie up the other end.
Nathan Hauritz would have had that role, but his injury has seen him replaced by Jason Krezja, an attacking and potentially expensive spinner. With only part-time support to back him up in the form of Steve Smith, David Hussey and possibly Cameron White, the lack of spin options will severely hurt Australia.
Which brings us to the final team in the equation. Sri Lanka does not quite boast the list of stars that other nations have. And yet their current team is potent, settled, and moving like clockwork. Perhaps in this case, the absence of star wattage helps everyone keep the glare out of their eyes.
Kumar Sangakkara and Mahela Jayawardene are the team’s A-grade batsmen, both with that rare ability to score quickly and apparently effortlessly using classical cricket technique. Thilan Samaraweera provides stability, Tillakaratne Dilshan provides muscle and improvisation.
Down the order, Angelo Matthews fills a critical role as the late-innings finisher. As his astonishing innings to snatch victory in Melbourne last November proved, he’s made for the role. His preternaturally cool head in such circumstances is a reflection of Sangakkara’s leadership, which combines energy and purpose with dignity and gravitas. It would be hard to succumb to panic with the Sri Lankan skipper at the helm.
Sri Lanka also have the best one-day bowler in the world in Lasith Malinga, a man who holds up scoring while always remaining an attacking threat. Batsmen still struggle to counter his peculiar slinging action, and his ability to hit pinpoint yorkers with such a round-arm technique is astonishing.
Nuwan Kulasekera and Thisara Perera are two less-heralded but extremely useful seam bowling options. To follow them comes Muttiah Muralitharan, the most experienced ODI bowler in the world, in his farewell to international cricket, and his understudy, Ajantha Mendis.
With a number of part-time spin options to complement them, it’s a varied attack well suited to subcontinental conditions.
More than the calibre of player, though, is the feeling of purpose and unity about this team. You sense they have been building towards this for the past couple of years. The fact that they came to Australia this summer and won in straight sets was no accident. By all appearances, the Sri Lankans are settled, confident, sure of their roles, and playing for each other.
Sentiment and personal politics were not allowed to play a part, proved when old favourites Sanath Jayasuriya and Chaminda Vaas were left out of the final squad. Therein was a very revealing development. No more reactionary decisions. No more sentiment over intellect.
Instead, there was a single mission, easily apparent – to win this World Cup, and let nothing get in the way. So to go out on a limb, I’m tipping the blue and gold lions to do just that, over South Africa, India, and Australia. Now we just have to find out what Flava Flav thinks.
dhanush
Guest
@nir ur srilankan...?
nir
Guest
Nothing to think much...... Sri Lanka & India will play the finals and Sri lanka lift the cup.......
Harsh Thakor
Guest
My 3 teams are Australia,South Africa and pakistan,in that order.Remember the Aussies are still at the top of the one day rankings and inspite of weaknesses posess the greatset fighting qualities of all.South Africa have balanced batting and bowling ,with 4 batsmen averaging above 50 in the last year, great paceman in Steyn and Morkel.,plus a spinner..Pakistan are brilliant when coming from behind and inspite of adverse circumstances have poweful talent with the likes of Abdur Razzaq,Shahid Afridi,Umar Akmal,Shoaib Akhtar and Younus Khan-all match-winners on their day.Abdur Razzaq recently gave a dazzling match-winning display in Sharjah against South Africa.Before conquering New Zealnad Pakistan lost 2 hard -fought series against England and South Africa by 3-2 margins. India maybe the most balanced team ,but frankly I think too much pressure is being placed on them.India has the best batting line up but lack as fiery an attack as South Africa or Sri Lanka.
jill
Guest
Sri Lanka all the way to the cup
Jamesb
Guest
This is easy - India or Sri Lanka.
Bob
Guest
Having seen the Akmal's, Afridi, Razzaq and co in action in NZ this summer you'd have to rate them a top chance. They have 2 excellent young opening bats and 3 bowlers at 140K plus. The left arm spinner (Rehman) looks top class. Don't know how they keep finding so much outstanding new talent.
dunc
Guest
As a NZ supporter and hence a neutral, I see THREE TEAMS and one bolter as contenders to win the whole thing: I am picking on best form of recent in the middle and lower order batting, and their best three bowlers. INDIA - the Tendulkar finale fairytale. SRI LANKA - Sangakarra and the other magicians in the team. SOUTH AFRICA- just played a tough series v India and have enough talent all round... my bolter is PAKISTAN - they have great young hungry young talent and nothing to lose..
Tony
Guest
Australia is in a group with Pakistan, New Zealand, Sri Lanka, Zimbabwe, Canada and Kenya. It is unlikely we would lose to Zim, Can or Ken, but eminently feasible we could lose to Pak, Shree and NZ. But even if we do lose to those last three we would still most probably (not certainly) make it through to the quarters. (Which kind of makes the group stage a bloated waste of time, but that's another story.) That leaves a final eight of Aus, Pak, Shree, NZ, SA, Eng, WI and India. Any of those could win, but I don't think Australia, without a core of players to pull them out of a tight spot, can win three finals against three quality teams. Someone is going to trip us up. Fingers crossed I am wrong.
Lolly
Guest
I expected them to be a bit better than that against spin. The runrate was so low, most of the get-out shots were just unnecessary aggression on display.
Lolly
Guest
David Hussey is a good player with a real weakness against spin. Callum Ferguson looked clueless last night. The main hope for Aus is that the wickets won't spin as much as that. But I agree the shot selection left a great deal to be desired. Punter's to get out was a shock, that was a major brain fade from him. Was it ego as it was Harbie bowling and he wanted to assert himself?
Geoff Lemon
Expert
Not sure why, Viscount, but my gut says England won't get near it. Of course I'm open to being proved wrong in a few weeks. Morgan was in poor form in Australia, yes, but he's been crucial to a lot of England's recent successes, switching between a late-innings charger and an early-innings bail-out merchant as required. He's right up there with Hussey as the recent best in the business. I think they'll struggle without him.
Jay
Guest
Nowithstanding the outcome - question that really should be asked is if the Australian public actaully care about the tournament. Sadly, I think it will be a 'No'.
Brendon
Guest
Cameron White is in terrible form and should be dropped. Michael Clarke is a good player but I feel he could slip back into bad form again very easily. David Hussey is terribly inconsistent and scratches around like an old chook at the start of every innings, which is fine if he can stay in and accelerate but often he doesn't and gets out contributing nothing but soaking over precious deliveries. I have doubts about his ability against quality opposition ... he's not far away from being Australia's version of Graeme Hick. Infact, Clarke, White and D. Hussey all suffer from the same problem of being slow starters. We saw numerous times during the ODI series against England these 3 piss fart around and then get out putting pressure on the lower order. We're missing the likes of M. Hussey, Damien Martyn and Michael Bevan in the middle order. If Clarke can have a consistent tournament scoring at a s/r of 80-85+ then that could free up White and D. Hussey to fire.
Talisman
Guest
Recent history suggests to me that Australia's batsmens' inability to combat a spinning or swinging ball will see an early exit. Last night's game is fairly indicative. As for the winner, one of the sub-continent teams - I just don't know which one..
Rhys
Guest
Australia's absolute capitulation in the face of India's spin attack in last night's practice game was a worrying sign. It wasn't so much being bowled out for 176 (after being 1-118 at one stage) but the nature of many of the dismissals. Australia's middle and lower order succumbed meekly to a range of careless and thoughtless shot making. Even the usually calm Ponting played a wild swing to cow corner and was stumped (one of three stumpings in all). India looked aggressive and Dhoni was marshalling his troops with purpose and conviction. After a brisk start (courtesy of Watson again) the Aussies only needed to tick along at 3 an over to win but didn't even get close to the modest 214 target. It may have only been a warm up game with rather odd '15 aside' selection rules for batting/fielding lineups, but Australia will likely face similar spin friendly pitches and both Sri Lanka and Pakistan will offer up challenging spin attacks at the group stage. Without the calmness and innovation of Michael Hussey down the order I fear Australia will be relying heavily on the top three to blast a hole through the initial pace attack of oppositions and hope the middle/lower order can manufacture a few late runs. They may still make the semis but the more I consider the likely pitch conditions the more Sri Lanka and India loom large as tournament favourites. The other teams, including potential juggernaut South Africa, are likely to be spun out of contention.
Ben Carter
Roar Guru
For the sake of Australia? An AUS-NZL final. For the sake of the sport? a SAF-ENG final. With IRE, HOL, ZIM, BNG also in the top eight. This tournament desperately, desperately needs at least three major first-stage upsets, preferably all by the same team. My gut feeling is Australia will not win it, but most probably it'll come from SRL, SAF, ENG, IND. In many ways I'd like to see SRL-SAF final, although whether SAF can escape the tension question is another matter...
Brendon
Guest
1. India 2. South Africa 3. Sri Lanka 4. Australia (would be higher if Michael Hussey was there). 5. Pakistan? They could either go out in the 1st round or win the whole thing. 6. The rest have no chance in hell of winning.
Jammy
Guest
No team in the history of the world cup is under more pressure than India - at home, Tendulkar's last world cup(?), and a first rate squad expected to do well. I think the strain will get to them. South Africa are a wonderful unit but their conservative nature worries me. Playing conservatively and consistently is fine leading up to world cups but they don't have an explosive batting matchwinner. Australia have won the last 3 world cups and played in the 5 of the last 6 finals, winning 4. I believe we will get very close to winning again. Our squad may not be as good as some in the past but its good enough to beat India and South Africa. Sri Lanka will challenge, the Pakistanis the team every one else would like to avoid because if they get it together they could fire. Bangladesh to surprise. Australia to win.
Vinay Verma
Roar Guru
Viscount, I actually think Australia could end up playing England in a quarter-final. I can see West indies and England fighting for 3 and 4 in their group. I am picking the West indies to make the semi-finals. An India-Australia final is more plausible than India v England. Pietersen looms as England's match winner along with Swann.
Viscount Crouchback
Guest
"Clinical finisher Eoin Mogan was their most important player – when he was ruled out, England’s chances dropped from view". I'm not sure about this. Morgan was in fairly poor form and his replacement, Bopara, is well-suited to the sub-continent. England are by no means favourites but they seem to have the knack of peaking for the important stuff. My tip: India to beat England in the final.