To be honest, though, it’s hard to see the Suns finishing last in 2011. The club’s performances in the NAB Cup have shown that they will not look out of place at AFL level.
The Suns unexpectedly defeated both the Swans and GWS in the first round, then backed up over the weekend with a commendable performance against West Coast. Despite only four players with AFL experience making the long trip to Perth, the Suns were fully competitive right up until the final quarter when the Eagles kicked away.
While pre-season results only mean so much, the Suns’ record so far certainly stacks up favourably when compared to the Brisbane Lions, Port Adelaide, Fremantle and North Melbourne, four teams yet to win a game this year.
History is also on Gold Coast’s side. A look at recent expansion sides and how they’ve fared straight up suggests it should be easy to avoid the bottom of the ladder.
Port Adelaide finished 9th in their debut season, 1997. Fremantle finished 13th in 1995. Adelaide finished 9th in 1991.
You might say their list – easily the youngest in the comp – simply doesn’t have enough talent to finish anywhere other than last. But their list does have talent. Maybe it doesn’t have much depth, but talent definitely.
First you’ve got the players that played at another AFL club last year – Gary Ablett, Michael Rischitelli, Nathan Bock et al.
The eight players that fit into this category will each have an important role and between them, the Suns’ backline, midfield and ruck division holds enough AFL experience to survive at AFL level.
The forward line is more of a concern. The question of where the goals are going to come from is a serious one. But whether it’s the class of Gary Ablett ensuring the team wins plenty of the ball, or the toughness of Campbell Brown ensuring the youngest team in the comp isn’t easily intimidated, one cannot downplay the significance of the eight players sourced from other clubs.
Then there are the handful of players that have AFL experience but weren’t at another club last year.
The standout among them is undoubtedly midfielder Daniel Harris, who looks set to make a huge return to the elite level after his time at North Melbourne ended in 2009. Of the others, ex-Collingwood players Danny Stanley and Sam Iles are likely to see game time, however it’s uncertain whether Nathan Ablett will make an appearance.
The need for a key forward is one reason it may happen, but his VFL performances last year provide a pretty good reason to think it won’t.
Then there’s the first-year players, who admittedly take up the majority of the list.
High draft picks David Swallow and Harley Bennell have impressed already and should be in Rising Star discussions all year. They will certainly play from Round 1.
The same goes for 27 year-old key defender Michael Coad, who will finally get his chance at AFL level.
Even rugby league convert Karmichael Hunt has shown enough in the NAB Cup to show he’s worthy of a spot in the Suns’ backline from week one.
However, not all of the first-year players are ready to go. A substantial number of them wouldn’t get too many games at most other clubs. So it has to be remembered, for all the excitement of Swallow and Bennell, the Suns’ “bottom six” each week likely won’t to be that impressive.
Even so, with the signs we’ve seen so far this pre-season, the history of sides in a similar position and the quality of players that do belong at AFL level, the league’s newcomers are by no means locks for the wooden spoon.
Bayman
Guest
GrantS, Apologies my boy. It must have been late at night and I wasn't concentrating. These new teams are doing my head in. As a Crows supporter I'm still in shock that they are about to start their 21st season. When they played their first game (vs Hawthorn) I was in Hong Kong for the rugby sevens. It seems like a lifetime ago.
Hey Bayman your picking on the wrong guy! :) I said I would be willing to take any bet that said they wouldn't win a game! I am also very interested to see how they go.
Bayman
Guest
GrantS, They said the same thing about Port Adelaide in 1997 when Collingwood belted them in the first game. Port ended the year with 7 or 8 wins. I'm not saying you are necessarily wrong but the GC talent currently exceeds what Port had. The bodies, however, will be the test. Kids may struggle to compete physically and even more so as the year goes on. I, for one, am looking forward to seeing how they go.
Macca
Guest
I think you are probably right about Sheedy and Williams Tom but I think one of the things Gold Coast actually did right was put McKenna in. GWS should of gone for a young coach just like everyone else is at the moment, Geelong, North, Carlton, Hawthorn, Essendon, Sydney, Richmond, Freo, Port Adelaide, Melbourne, St Kilda, Brisbane and Collingwood next year have all gone for new coaches not recycled ones - GWS seems out of step.
TomC
Guest
My suspicion is that Sheedy is more of a figurehead for the public and mentor for the players and that Mark Williams will end up having more of the conventional coaching role once they actually start playing. I think there's enough coaching talent at GWS for them not to completely stuff up their list. The real issue for both Gold Coast and GWS won't be resolved for at least five years: what is the best mix of youth and experience in order to build a premiership contender over the medium to long term? I have some concerns about teams having twenty or thirty players on their list in the same age bracket.
OzFootballSherrin
Roar Pro
get Melbourne and Essendon and even North on the right day and they'd be a chance. Like so much, the match up on a given week - - taking into account injuries, and where a club is in it's training regime. The Suns though are unlikely to pick up late season wins as the kids will most likely be really tiring. They'll also struggle for successive wins with so many kids on board.
Macca
Guest
Sheedy is the wrong guy to coach GWS. The list he left at Essendon was terrible, his last few seasons showed the game had passed him by and now he has been out of it for a couple of years it is only going to be worse. He is so bsuy trying to think left field that he let's the basics escape him. He is a great salesman and i think that is why he got the job, to promote GWS but he could of done that from being on the board, like Malcolm Blight at GC, and nothing sells a team like winning games and a poor coach won't help that. It is a special significance seeing as GWS will only get one crack at all the draft concessions etc and if Sheedy has the wrong game plan and chases the wrong players they may never recover. A case in point is their pursuit of Scully, yes he is going to be a gun but when you are going to end up with a team full of 18 year olds why chase a 20 year old?
GrantS
Guest
Interesting point! You would think their first seasons should be similar although the Suns may have got the best of the draft picks by getting in early. I'm not sure how relevant this is not knowing how many top ten draft picks actually make it onto the field and play a substantial number of games. After that I guess it comes down to Kevin Sheedy and Graeme Allan versus Guy McKenna and Scott Clayton, all very capable men.
Macca
Guest
Especially as everyone seems in agreement that the young blokes will drop off in the second half of the season and if Ablett and Brennan take 5-6 weeks to get back to their best it doesn't leave to many weeks when everyone is playing at their peak.
GrantS
Guest
Fair enough! I think the Suns' supporters would be extremely worried that Ablett has not taken part in any of the games so far and is not due back till the second round of the comp.
Simmo
Guest
So what possible lessons will learn about GWS from watching the Suns' first season? Do they have the same recruiting and drafting rules to pull their squad together?
Macca
Guest
Grant - I believe they won't win a game, there are those here that believe they will, it is to those people that I say with the poor pre seasons key playeres have had the odds that I am right must be improved. Even if those players were 100% I don't think they would win a game, the fact that they aren't just strengthens my argument. I ope this clears things up.
GrantS
Guest
Macca I'm afraid you've lost me! First you said they had no chance of winning a game, now you are saying if certain players are not in the side their chances are significantly reduced. If you have no chance, then no matter what happens, your chances cannot be reduced.
Macca
Guest
Intersting there are reports today Ablett and Brennan are in doubt for the Suns opening game - given both these players and Bock have had interupted pre seasons the chances of the Suns winning a game must be significantly reduced.
Koops
Roar Rookie
Over 11,000 members today at GC, i wonder if they can get to 15,000, would be interesting to see the demographic break up of their membership. i reckon 4 to 6 wins this year, will probably fall apart towards the end of the year, Hunt will be servicable, but not a standout, but maybe take on a enforcer type role for his young teammates. Will they turn a profit of any kind, they will certainly make some money from their stadium deal, but will it cover there costs.
GrantS
Guest
Tom what you and Macca have said makes a lot of sense. I only weighed into the discussion because Macca made the definitive statement that they would not win a single game. Now he might be correct, we will see at the end of the season, but to a betting man that's a pretty fair bet and if one of the Sports betting organizations puts up that bet, at a reasonable price, I will probably take it.
Macca
Guest
Exactly Tom - There would not be any team that if they were to play tomorrow Gold Coast would start favourites against but people still think they will win a few just because they keep turning up and someone will have a bad week.
TomC
Guest
Brisbane probably have the next weakest 22, but if you line them up against Gold Coast they still look a lot stronger, particularly once you get past the first eight players. If a team from Melbourne had Brisbane's list and you asked them to travel up from Victoria to play at Carrara then you'd give the Suns a chance, but for the Lions its just a matter of going down the highway to a venue they've played at in regular and pre-season games over the past couple of years. Neither Port Adelaide or Richmond are playing at Carrara this season. Nor West Coast I think the Suns will probably win a game at some point, but I really don't know which one. Unless another team has a colossal implosion (and Brisbane to be fair are the most likely candidate) I can't see GC finishing anywhere other than last.
GrantS
Guest
Yes you have hit the nail on the head. Their biggest problem is their forward line which only averages 3-4 shots on goal per quarter. It is necessary to have at least 5 shots on goal per quarter to have a slim chance of winning. You will probably have noticed with the young side Geelong fielded last time that they only averaged 3 shots per quarter and got thrashed ,even though their play around the ground was quite good.
Macca
Guest
I'll also ask you this, what if Bock or Ablett goes down? what chance of winning a game then?