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The expectations are low for the AFL’s 17th club, the Gold Coast Suns, as they approach their first season. The combination of a young list and a swag of players without AFL experience has seen bookmakers install the newcomers favourites for the wooden spoon – and many fans agree.
To be honest, though, it’s hard to see the Suns finishing last in 2011. The club’s performances in the NAB Cup have shown that they will not look out of place at AFL level.
The Suns unexpectedly defeated both the Swans and GWS in the first round, then backed up over the weekend with a commendable performance against West Coast. Despite only four players with AFL experience making the long trip to Perth, the Suns were fully competitive right up until the final quarter when the Eagles kicked away.
While pre-season results only mean so much, the Suns’ record so far certainly stacks up favourably when compared to the Brisbane Lions, Port Adelaide, Fremantle and North Melbourne, four teams yet to win a game this year.
History is also on Gold Coast’s side. A look at recent expansion sides and how they’ve fared straight up suggests it should be easy to avoid the bottom of the ladder.
Port Adelaide finished 9th in their debut season, 1997. Fremantle finished 13th in 1995. Adelaide finished 9th in 1991.
You might say their list – easily the youngest in the comp – simply doesn’t have enough talent to finish anywhere other than last. But their list does have talent. Maybe it doesn’t have much depth, but talent definitely.
First you’ve got the players that played at another AFL club last year – Gary Ablett, Michael Rischitelli, Nathan Bock et al.
The eight players that fit into this category will each have an important role and between them, the Suns’ backline, midfield and ruck division holds enough AFL experience to survive at AFL level.
The forward line is more of a concern. The question of where the goals are going to come from is a serious one. But whether it’s the class of Gary Ablett ensuring the team wins plenty of the ball, or the toughness of Campbell Brown ensuring the youngest team in the comp isn’t easily intimidated, one cannot downplay the significance of the eight players sourced from other clubs.
Then there are the handful of players that have AFL experience but weren’t at another club last year.
The standout among them is undoubtedly midfielder Daniel Harris, who looks set to make a huge return to the elite level after his time at North Melbourne ended in 2009. Of the others, ex-Collingwood players Danny Stanley and Sam Iles are likely to see game time, however it’s uncertain whether Nathan Ablett will make an appearance.
The need for a key forward is one reason it may happen, but his VFL performances last year provide a pretty good reason to think it won’t.
Then there’s the first-year players, who admittedly take up the majority of the list.
High draft picks David Swallow and Harley Bennell have impressed already and should be in Rising Star discussions all year. They will certainly play from Round 1.
The same goes for 27 year-old key defender Michael Coad, who will finally get his chance at AFL level.
Even rugby league convert Karmichael Hunt has shown enough in the NAB Cup to show he’s worthy of a spot in the Suns’ backline from week one.
However, not all of the first-year players are ready to go. A substantial number of them wouldn’t get too many games at most other clubs. So it has to be remembered, for all the excitement of Swallow and Bennell, the Suns’ “bottom six” each week likely won’t to be that impressive.
Even so, with the signs we’ve seen so far this pre-season, the history of sides in a similar position and the quality of players that do belong at AFL level, the league’s newcomers are by no means locks for the wooden spoon.