Let’s start off by stating that the A-League is not in peril, despite what the non-football media will be espousing after the dumping of the North Queensland Fury.
We have to know our unique place in Australia’s crowded sporting landscape and tailor our competition accordingly. It will always be hard for football as we face challenges no other code faces.
For example:
– Even though we are truly national (as in the recognition of our sport) we are clearly at best number three in each of the markets.
– We have over 120 of our country’s best players plying their trade overseas, and even if we are to get the majority back the real cream will always be overseas. Without the true stars it is very hard to form a marketing campaign as our country is used to having the best of the best (even if there are only two other countries in the world playing the game).
– Certain parts of the country are so parochial to their certain codes of football that it is part of the culture of the area, it is virtually impossible to break through into the psyche of the fan.
I have heard that Mr Buckley has responded to the sacking of the Fury by stating that the J-League and MLS have had the same contractions before they became the healthy beings they are now.
I have to say that besides the fact that lessons should have been learnt from their problems before we expanded, that our sporting landscape is so unique, and our population so small that these lessons may not even apply here.
I try to liken the expanding of the A-League to my blowing up of a balloon for my youngest daughter. If i blow it up too quickly I lose traction and the balloon flies away into the atmosphere. Short, well measured bursts are needed, with time taken before each expansion to save yourself from running out of puff.
Finally, you get to a position where it can be tied up as a neat package.
Every football fan in this country knows that the heartland of our game is in Western Sydney. Everyone knows that the heartland of rugby league in this country is North Queensland. So rather than taking the measured breath and going to Western Sydney, we got all puffed up and blew our way into Townsville.
That balloon has now blown away.
At the same time Western Sydney was still ignored for a team on the Gold Coast. Besides my yearly family holiday to Surfers Paradise, I will be the first to admit that I am not in tune with the Gold Coast’s love affair (or lack of) with the different sporting codes.
But from my armchair in Western Sydney I would think it would be rugby league-crazy (as per the rest of Queensland) even though it is now in its third incarnation of franchises (Seagulls, Chargers and now Titans), and from reports I hear that the Titans struggle to make a quid.
In addition to this the biggest game in the country (AFL), with the deepest pockets, has decided to go at the region hell for leather. Our game does need private investors (every code does at the moment), but unfortunately it is only Mr. Clive Palmer who is keeping the balloon filled with air at this stage.
He will either decide to let it go without tying it up, which will create a hell of a noise, or tie it up and let it go. With no base created if he ties it up and steps away, it will, in all likelihood, just float away into the atmosphere.
So what to do? I truly believe that measured expansion is the safest bet. Consolidating in our key areas is the only way. Western Sydney must have a team, if the Rovers were not ready then that is fine.
Take your time and do it right.
The second team in Melbourne was a success – not a roaring success – but time will only make it stronger. With the Fury gone and assuming the Gold Coast makes its inevitable exit, that will make 10 teams (including Western Sydney).
I believe a 12 team league is the best option giving 33 rounds (playing every team three times) or 27 if you want to split the teams into two conferences (playing the other conference twice and each conference member three times). That leaves another two teams to find with either:
1. Southern Sydney/Wollongong. The biggest junior area in the country (Sutherland) combined with Wollongong (which has always been a fruitful area for supplying Socceroos).
2. Tasmania. They are crying out for a national sports team in any league. We will never beat the AFL down there, but it is a chance to create a niche.
I have left out Canberra at this stage. It is another congested sporting market with rugby league and union and the AFL dipping a toe in via the Western Sydney Giants.
Their bid to join the A-League previously seemed extremely professional and it does have history in the national competition, but as a public service area I believe it would also struggle in a congested market for corporate support.
The key is that we cannot worry about the other codes as we are and always will be facing different challenges to the other codes. We have to recognise our strengths and weaknesses and find our niche in each individual market.
With a representation in every state (including a true Tasmanian team) we will have coverage that not even the AFL has. It is only then that the balloon can be tied up and presented as a package for the TV networks.
With this, we can pursue second position in every state.
bp2
Roar Rookie
Im sorry but an average of 17K for a competition that is the best in its code in the WORLD, with the best players, coverage etc is quite pathetic, regardless of our small population base. What about the AFL? They are 4th in averages with less of a population base than the NRL (considering NSW and Qld are NRL states) From the list you have linked it seems that MLS almost has it beat for average. I know the USA has a massive population but it is easilly the 4th sport there! Wookie, i stand corrected. The AFL dont need private investors. It is the "Giant" in the story without them already.
The_Wookie
Roar Guru
every code needs private investors?
Kasey
Roar Pro
A great and well measured look into expansion from the A-League point of view...which means I'm waiting for the AFLers to jump in here and tell us football fanshow we're all wrong aand that we might as well just give up and go home:( West Sydney is a stated priority for FFA, but given Sydney-siders noted fickleness regarding sport, what gives us hope that the 2 harbour-city clubs would be able to generate anything like the fire that already exists between Victory and Heart in the tardby? Don't get me wrong, I believe that the WS team would be a great success, and would within a short time become a bigger football presence in Sydney than the Smurfs. I just hope FFA do proper due diligence this time before green-lighting the WS team. We as a sport DO NOT need another free kick given to the other sports in the publicity/perception stakes. the market is already úber competitive as it is without giving away free kicks like the Fury mess has turned into, I mean right in the middle of a tip-top finals series with quality games all over the place, what is the media focused on?
NF
Guest
Generally, the NRL attendances are pretty good from a worldwide perspective it averages 17k which is near the same as Brazil's Serie A, higher than french & English union, and a few other lower European football leagues so overall it's near the middle of the road. Not bad for a country the size of Australia and considering there's no team in WA/SA which there should of being but due to extraordinary circumstances (superleague) and inept management they ain't there. Total attendance wise it be outnumbered by the top football leagues which is no surprise. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_attendance_figures_at_domestic_professional_sports_leagues
MyLeftFoot
Roar Guru
bp pretty good article, measured analysis. I would only say, more in response to some of your comments, that it would be a mistake to assume that the AFL is going in hard after League specifically. The AFL has identified a market opportunity in Western Sydney, i.e. plenty of people who are not watching live sport right now. It is marketing itself to those people, the majority of whom are not spending on live sport. It's speculative to suggest that this will hurt League. One could conclude just as easily that it makes it tougher for other sports to start up operations there because sponsorship and live sport dollars are getting sucked up right now as we speak. League is so well established with such strong support right through the region, I would argue that in fact they are likely to be the least affected by the establishment of the giants.
bp2
Roar Rookie
I didnt intend to come across as wanting to weaken League (as a Sydneysider i did grow up with it and have been a member of the Bulldogs in the past). Its just that i see the AFL going hard at League in Sydney, and eating into their share without touching footballs share as much. By definition that would mean that we have to be stronger in comparison. NRL Memberships have only started to be focused on by clubs since the NSW pokie tax came in. It hasnt been hammered for long and they started off with really low numbers so you would expect them to consistently break records from year to year in the formative years of it. TV ratings are always high for League but i personally dont give alot of credence to them. I have read somewhere that NSW and QLD have 60% of the TV market so if League is the number 1 game (strongly) in these two states then TV ratings will always be skewed towards it. I tend to follow the money trail. If so much attention is paid to the ratings then why did the AFL get so much more than the NRL on their last broadcast rights deal? Independent commission, the News limited ownership issue or whatever else is thrown up the basic thing is that the market put a much higher value on the AFL than it did the NRL. If it was just based on ratings i am positive the NRL wouldnt be looking at Perth, Central Queensland and even PNG for expansion as they already have it dominated. As for attendances. generally the NRL attendances are quite poor. the non-football media tend to compare A League attendances with overseas leagues when having a dig at our game. But even the NRL attendances dont stack up against these leagues. NRL figures are massively skewed by the Broncos and North Queensland. The rest of them dont average much more than the A League. Last season was also helped by a successful St George, which brought many supporters onto their bandwagon. League is the game in Sydney and Queenslands hearts and always will be, but I cannot see them any better off with the AFL attacking its heartlands of the Gold Coast and Western Sydney.
NF
Guest
bp2 Well I'm all for football succeeding but you want to weaken league at the same time which I don't approve considering there on at different times on the year and the NRL is having record membership,ratings & attendances so to suggest NRL will just be eaten up by AFL and chewed out your sorely mistaken.
bp2
Roar Rookie
I agree that the HAL is number two in some states. It is definately number 2 in Adelaide, since the old NSL days it has always been a soccer stronghold. Perth may be more touch and go as the Glory seem to have lost their way a bit. They need to regain their mojo before the NRL strongarm a team there. i would think that the Force and new NRL team would cannabalise one another so there is no reason that we cant be number 2 there. Melbourne is a whole world onto its own. It is such a sporting town that even if we are equal second with Union that will more than suffice. I think AFL would eat League down there for us. Sydney is a really weird place. It is a League town but even their crowds suggest that they are not infalliable. AFL will throw what they can at them and if we can strengthen ourselves in our heartlands (the west and south) we may hope for an equal second with the AFL with a severly weakened League in first place. Like i said before, Queensland is Rugby League mad. I think that it will be the hardest market for us. The community model idea is absolutely fantastic in theory, but in this day and age i dont think it can be sustained. Even Rugby League is moving away from the community based model and they have 100 plus years of history so i cannot see how it can be sustained in such a small market.
EvertonAndAustralia
Roar Pro
Keep GCU I need a villian team to hate. NQ Fury should've stayed and there should've been another team in Sydney.
jtg
Guest
Hey Muz this is part of my anger management. Yeah we do need the youth team in the national league. In fact that is how it should have started and gained entry into the A-league. Not through some pretend rich bloke. Community ownership is the only way the A-League will go forward with new and existing clubs.
olrac
Guest
Would it make you less angry if the FFA allows NQF to have a youth league team next year? I actually thik that this idea has merit...
olrac
Guest
I think that HAL is number two in some states. Adelaide and Perth - Defiantly Melbourne Probably Sydney and QLD defiantly not.
Muz
Guest
Fire up son!
jtg
Guest
What a load of rubbish!! The FFA will never know if it was the right area. Go and tell the juniors that. The FFA promised one thing and did another. this is the issue. If they cut the fury after mathehson fell over no-one up here would have been so upset over the decision, as we understand how business operates. All they had to do was keep their word. They are a disgrace. If you want market share then set up 4 teams in melbourne and sydney where the major population lives and get rid of everyone else. But then look at the success of Sydney FC this year. lucky to get 5000 people to a game out of 5 million. How pathetic? So how does your theory on the size of the competive market work there?? The community model would have worked, it only needed time. The FFA sat on the paperwork for 4 months before they let the fury release the model in february. 4weeks ago. They set the fury up to fail. I thought the FFA was interested in development of the game…”grass roots”.. “football family”. Yeah keep everything in the capital cities, make sure our kids have no opportunities unless they travel 1500km. Football Federation of Australian Capital Cities. They do not represent Australia or me.
RedOrDead
Roar Guru
I don't think it's too late for the Sydney Rovers to come into the NYL in the 2011/12 season. Most of the administration work has been done. All that work has been handed over to FFA for ANY other viable consortium to pick up where the previous consortium left off (if they come up with the cash). It won't be too hard to pick up quality youngsters before the start of next season. Get them playing in Western Sydney this season coming and enter these youngsters along with a couple of marquee and more experienced players into the 2012/2013 A-League season after they're a little better established and even picked up some fans and support along the way...
Fussball ist unser leben
Roar Guru
Excellent analysis and insights. What a pity such clarity of thought and common sense is not part of the "selection criteria" they use when hiring staff at FFA HQ. Can't wait for Western Sydney to get its team ... now, that will initiate a real MVFC / Sydney rivalry.