Liam Anthony of North Melbourne is tackled by Andrew Embley of the Eagles during the AFL Round 03 match between the North Melbourne Kangaroos v West Coast Eagles at Etihad Stadium, Melbourne.
In part one of my previews of the 2011 AFL season, let’s have a look at the bottom nine by using the crystal ball and predict where they will finish.
17th: West Coast (last season 16th)
Looking at their squad, it’s hard to see much improvement coming from them. The Eagles are still a team in rebuilding phase with players such as Cox, Kerr and Glass still the mainstays in a young side.
There are positives with the LeCras, Kennedy forward line looking very dangerous. Even though they have some good forwards, there is not enough talent around the whole park for the Eagles to move forward.
16th: Gold Coast Suns (debut)
The new kids on the block have chocks of young talent mixed with some very good experienced players. Kids like Matera, Caddy and Lynch mixed with Brown, Bock and a bloke called Ablett make this list look very promising. However, there is a big gap between the young and the experienced and this will stop the club from being a runaway success next year.
But watch out in a few years for the Suns.
15th: Essendon (last season 14th)
Despite their good form in the NAB Cup, Essendon have a tough season ahead under James Hird. Still yet to replace Lloyd and Lucas, they will struggle up forward to kick goals. The Bombers midfield has some pace to burn but a little bit of inexperience in it. Hird is the supposed “saviour” of the club; this will be put to the test and it will be tough for him.
14th: Brisbane Lions (last season 13th)
A horror 12 months will continue. Michael Voss’ side is going to pay for the Brendon Fevola trade debacle. After sacrificing the kids in 2009 for a premiership side in 2010, the Lions have a lot of rebuilding to do. Power and Black need to have apprentices under them because time is coming up on their careers and Brown can’t do everything.
If things don’t go well, expect Voss to be chopped.
13th: Richmond (last season 15th)
Will continue their up and down form from the last six months of 2010. Brimming with talent and ready to enliven, Damien Hardwick has some good talent to have a crack at the big clubs and maybe cause a few upsets along the way. 2011 will be a roller coaster for the club; there will be highs and lows but it’ll be lots of fun.
Like the Gold Coast, they will be at their peak in the future.
12th: Port Adelaide (last season 10th)
A changing of the guard has happened with Primus in and Williams and Tredrea out. Primus brings hope to a club embarrassed by the last few years. Port has some quality young players in Hartlett and Boak, who are lacking a lot of game time due to injury in 2010. If they can get going it will make a big difference to the side.
Again, like most sides in the bottom nine, they are in a rebuilding phase and it’s not their year.
11th: North Melbourne (last season 9th)
Brad Scott demanded change and he got it with the club many expected to flop nearly making the finals. Greenwood, Ziebell and Grima coupled with stalwart Harvey, Scott Thompson and Daniel Wells give this team a lot of grunt.
However, the club is a solid rather than spectacular team and they lack a bit of razzle dazzle like the top eight to be a finals side.
10th: Carlton (last season 8th)
Bundled out in the first week of finals two years running, the pressure is on the Blues in 2011. After years of trying, the Blues finally got a forward line not dependent on one man working. Chris Judd still carries too much of the midfield load and this precludes the team from being successful.
The defence is still too leaky for the Blues to challenge. Ratten is under pressure and out of contract and will be desperate for a successful 2011 and a bad start could see him punted.
9th: Melbourne (last season 12th)
It pains me to leave Melbourne out of the top eight but I have to. It is coming close to their time but just not yet. Scully, Watts and Jurrah are going to have big seasons and the Demons will give the good clubs a scare.
After years of pain, they are coming good but not yet. Their young players still have a lot of inconsistency about them that needs another year to eradicate.
It pains me to do this.
TomC
Guest
Well, twelve months later I guess I didn't make any way off predictions.
amazonfan
Roar Guru
Has it already been put up? I can't seem to find it. Thanks.
MyLeftFoot
Roar Guru
I note that the bullies' number one ticket holder has been on a recruiting drive in the Oval office http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=801466
SportsFanGC
Roar Guru
Definitely between West Coast and Brisbane for the wooden spoon, and possibly both coaches sacked by years end. Gold Coast just above them, Port Adelaide down there as well but both coaches are safe at seasons end. I think there will be a bit of a logjam for teams trying to snatch 6/7/8 on the ladder, anyone from North Melb, Melb, Rich, Essendon, Sydney, Carlton will squeeze into the finals series.
Tom Dimanis
Roar Pro
Hi all, I've created a Dream Team League for Roar writers and readers. The league code is: 581776. Get on!
johnhunt92
Roar Guru
You are thinking like me Tom C. Apart from where the Gold Coast will finish, I agree with you're views
TomC
Guest
I see my comment got edited. Hm. Actually, the edited version is better.
TomC
Guest
My own personal views: Gold Coast to finish last, and last by a long way. They have the weakest 22, the least depth and possibly the toughest draw. We won't know for a couple of years if the team will be an on field success or not. Apart from that I think it'll be pretty tight at the bottom of the ladder. Brisbane and West Coast have weak lists but should win enough games at home not to be embarassed. Essendon, Richmond and Port Adelaide I think will be up and down all season. The Kangaroos always seem to over-acheive, but its hard to see them beating top eight teams or winning too many on the road. Melbourne are a team that could do anything this season, but most likely I think they'll probably finish in the bottom pack with the other teams I've mentioned. They still have a very young team and even the best young players struggle for consistency.
TomC
Guest
Leaving (insert my team's name here) out of the eight? Bah!
Jared Newton
Roar Rookie
Largely agree but; Bombers are stronger than 14th. They have GCS, WCE, BL, PA and possibly Melbourne covered. I know you can't read too much into NAB Cup but I fear for the Dees as they showed a game plan of an over-reliance on run and attack and not much in the way of a pressing defence. Mark my words if they don't address this they may have some 'growing pains' in 2011. Carlton are a top 6 side. Their defence isn't so leaky anymore either. They conceded an average 90 points per game in 2010 in a stat that has trended downward every year. FOr the record that put their defence 9th. Their defence will be top 8 in 2011 and their on-ballers and diversity up forward mean they'll win enough games to make the 8. West Coast are a far better side than the Gold Coast- Gold Coast have an average age of 21 and average games played of 20 odd. They're boys on a mans errand, West Coast proved that in the NAB Quarter Finals.
Mattay
Guest
Richmond out of the 8? Carry on.
Redb
Roar Guru
Putting Essendon at 15th. Fail.
Robyn
Guest
Leaving the Blues out of the 8? Nope sorry, fail !