Grand Final Preview: the cream to rise to the top

By Tony Tannous / Expert

The scene was Bluetongue Stadium, a wet Sunday afternoon, on the last weekend of November last year with the Central Coast Mariners taking on the Brisbane Roar. At half time, Graham Arnold had an admission to make: he had got it horribly wrong.

Whether it was a private thought, a whisper in the ear of his assistant Phil Moss, or an open admission in the dressing-room, Arnold put his hand up.

Diverting from his diamond midfield for the first time since he took control, Arnold went into the week 16 match with a 4-2-3-1.

The objective, it seemed, was the sit back and frustrate the Roar. Having spent the past few years under the tutelage of Pim Verbeek, one could understand why he went down that path.

The Roar had been on a 13 game undefeated run, the start of a recording breaking run that now sits at 28, had their confidence flowing on the back of four games in two weeks, so there was enough logic in Arnold’s plan.

No doubt he thought the best way, perhaps the only way, to stifle Ange Postecoglou’s men was to sit deep, congest the midfield and stop them from playing.

Little doubt he was also reflecting on the Roar’s comfortable 2-0 win at Suncorp the first time the sides met a month or so earlier.

But the Mariners’ lack of initiative and negative mind-frame played right into the Brisbane’s hands.

By half time, trailing 3-0 to a Jean Carlos Solorzano brace and a Mitch Nichols goal, it was time to revert to his preferred diamond midfield 4-4-2, so on came Daniel McBreen and Adam Kwasnik for Matt Simon and Mustafa Amini.

While the Mariners lost the second half due to two late Roar goals, it was much more even contest as they at least had a go.

Since then, the sides have met three times, and it’s been a far more even contest every time, with two games drawn.

Indeed, three time during those games the Mariners have led, only to be pegged back late by a team that refuses to accept defeat.

Essentially, what Arnold has realised over time is that there is no point dropping 10 men behind the ball against the Roar.

If you do that, Postecoglou’s men pick up every loose ball and start their build up again, playing out from the back with no pressure, moving the ball quickly, playing their diagonal balls, moving, and eventually breaking teams down.

What the Mariners have down well of late against Brisbane is play a little higher in defence, push on in midfield and attack, and then utilise the wide areas on the counter-attack, with Patricio Perez particularly clever in running off Eric Paartalu and finding some space out wide.

In truth, the Mariners haven’t always used this space as effectively and efficiently as they might have.

For starters, they haven’t always been as ruthless as they should have in the final third, Perez often forced to hold up the ball to wait for team-mates to catch up.

This has partly been due to the Roar’s defensive transition. It’s not the best part of their game, but nor should it be under-estimated. It will likely be a big focus for Postecoglou this week.

For the Mariners to have any chance, they will need to take their chances in forward transition, and swiftly. If Perez’s hammy doesn’t respond in time, Amini’s role in carrying the Mariners forward becomes crucial.

If they can’t make anything of the rapid forward thrusts, winning free-kicks in and around the box will key. Defending them isn’t a Roar forte.

For all their attack, Postecoglou will be focussing on the detail in defence.

The key at the other end will be whether they can grab an early goal. While Brisbane have made a habit of coming from behind, perhaps too often for the manager’s liking, there’s no doubt the pressure will mount if they go behind in the decider.

Much was made of the way the Mariners took it to them in the second leg of the major semi final, but if Kosta Barbarouses had converted either of his excellent one-on-one chances in the first quarter of the match, the tie would have been over.

Barbarouses has improved his finishing no-end throughout the season, but he and Solorzano will have to be at their ruthless best in the early going.

With Thomas Broich proving that he can raise his game when his team needed it most on the second half of the second leg, the Mariners back four is likely to be hard pressed dealing with Brisbane’s potent front three.

While you should never ignore the claims of the Mariners, as likely a team as any to spoil the party, I’m predicting the cream will rise to the top and that the Brisbane Roar will complete the Premiership-Championship double with a 2-0 win, with Solorzano and Broich bagging the goals.

It would be a repeat of the Brisbane Strikers’s winning scoreline in the NSL grand final win over Sydney United 14 years ago, but, more than that, it would be a fitting reward for what has been a truly outstanding season.

The Crowd Says:

2011-03-10T03:03:17+00:00

Midfielder

Guest


This guy says a Mriners win... http://www.ubisoft.biz/blogimage/job_interview_fortune_teller.jpg

2011-03-09T11:27:56+00:00

MyLeftFoot

Roar Guru


HOlger will be watching: http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/soccer/young-stars-know-socceroos-boss-holger-osieck-will-be-watching-a-league-grand-final/story-e6frfg8x-1226018637429

2011-03-09T10:55:36+00:00

apaway

Guest


Great article, Tony. This will literally be the brightest GF yet, with orange and maroon vs blue and yellow! Ange P makes no secret of the fact he wants his team to pass out from the back. Unless he baits us all and gets the fullbacks to hit long diagonal balls out of the back 4, the Mariners' best chance lies in pressuring the defence when they lose the ball in the last third. To this end, the role of Perez or Amini will be vital because they will need to back themselves and push into a third striker role for that to be effective, which in turn means the CCM midfield will have to fill the gap behind the midfielder at the head of the diamond, because as soon as the Roar exploit that space, they are ruthless and quick. Can't wait.

2011-03-09T10:34:20+00:00

asanchez

Roar Guru


I think it'll be a close final, 1 goal in it, and Brisbane will win it. But overall, football will be the winner on Sunday. Looks like it'll be a sellout. Hopefully it's a cracking game, it has all the ingredients to be. Whether Brisbane win or lose, the club and their new owners, the FFA need to build on the momentum the team has created this season. The long offseason won't help, but their marketing team really needs to work overtime! We really need a strong Brisbane in this league. Best luck to both sides. This Sunday will be a great advertisement for the A-league.

2011-03-09T10:18:45+00:00

Joe FC

Guest


Thanks Roon.

AUTHOR

2011-03-09T08:43:40+00:00

Tony Tannous

Expert


A great season for Mariners and Arnold Mid, irrespective of the result on Sunday There were big doubts about Arnold, and I'll admit I was among the 100% of observers who thought he might struggle at some point, but he's been very solid, making many right moves as the season has unfolded. Never quite understood the Pasfield signing, even at time, but overall... I watched the Mariners dominate SydFC in the pre-season at Homebush, and was impressed, so not entirely surprised by their season...and as I noted in my piece, one would be crazy to completely write them off. If any team is capable of an upset, it's CCM. Given v1 and v3, they would be due their share of GF luck in my mind!!

2011-03-09T07:25:02+00:00

Roon

Guest


Fox says it has very important rugby league, rugby union and one-day cricket broadcasting obligations it must honour. FFA, however, say that it's for the fans - a much more family-friendly timeslot. That, or to give fans an extra day to save up to pay for the exorbitant ticket price hikes. Stadium officials say it gives them an extra day to wash the grubby eggball linemarkings off the pitch, patch the surface after Friday night's NRL game and give the grass a good trim. We say: 'Cos we've been shafted - again...

2011-03-09T07:15:07+00:00

Australian Football

Roar Guru


Good for you :D I'll keep my $53 for next year..

2011-03-09T06:35:52+00:00

Joe FC

Guest


Should be a great game. I'd like to see the Mariners make it 3rd time lucky. Not sure if it's already been discussed but why has the G/F reverted to a Sunday? Last season I took two of my children to Melbourne to cheer on Sydney & we had a great Saturday night. I'm not sure Sunday afternoon has the same atmosphere.

2011-03-09T06:12:26+00:00

Roon

Guest


Why not hit up Clive to pay for some tickets to the GF? Probably the only way to get some GC fans along to see some proper football? We're all going to Asia, dontcha know!

2011-03-09T04:03:22+00:00

pete4

Guest


Yeah look the Mariners will be saying to themselves it's a one off anything can happen. However it would be almost an injustice should Brisbane lose after the season they have had

2011-03-09T03:55:09+00:00

Realfootball

Guest


Fantastic! Will come close to 50k at this rate.

2011-03-09T03:53:57+00:00

Rob McLean

Roar Guru


Mariners will challenge early but, as always, Roar will find a winner. 2-1. Broich best on pitch. Nickolls to score one of the goals. I usually don't make predictions like this, I'm not a gambling man...but, what the hey?

2011-03-09T02:57:54+00:00

Futbanous

Guest


Last Pax 44000 odd around midday if that is any indicator.

2011-03-09T02:12:14+00:00

Griffo

Roar Guru


Mariners to take an early lead, then Brisbane to peg one back late....gets foggy after that. Brisbane have shown some nerves of late, and if their captain's quote recently is anything to go by, they will start no differently. Will they still be able to come back late and win, in front of a packed home ground, in a Grand Final, and extend the winning streak? Considering the seasons of the two teams, Brisbane probably 'more deserving', but the Mariners are due. Tough call. Can't wait for the game!

2011-03-09T01:24:52+00:00

Hoof

Guest


As long as CCM keep the pressure on Brisbane and stop them playing out from the back, then they stand a more than good chance of winning. However, I still think Brisbane will find a way to win.

2011-03-09T01:02:28+00:00

Realfootball

Guest


I think it is going to be very, very tight. Though a Roar fan, I would not put it past the Mariners to upset the Roar applecart. They certainly have grounds for believing they can do it after the second leg semi. Does anyone know how many tickets have been sold to date?

2011-03-09T00:43:04+00:00

TomC

Guest


I think the Roar will win comfortably. 2-0 or 3-0, probably. Just a cut above the Mariners this season. The scoreline in the return leg at Suncorp was a bit deceptive, I think.

2011-03-08T23:20:44+00:00

Phutbol

Guest


I think the scoreline might be right Mid, but you may have confused the winner. Kudos for blind faith and optimism though ;)

2011-03-08T23:00:38+00:00

Michael

Guest


Excellent Tony. Either team COULD win this one but I think there are a number of factors that will lead to the Roar winning. 1. Home support. 2. Better strikers than the Mariners. 3. Extreme resilience to come back from behind. If Brisbane score early it will make an easier win. But last game @ Suncorp they looked very nervous early on and if they concede first, the match will light up as they seek to come back from behind again. 3 -1 to Brisbane in regular time.

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