Five fearless predictions for the 2011 NRL season

Ok, let’s put the off-field dramas behind us for a minute and concentrate on the actual game. It’s time to look into the crystal ball and make some bold predictions. I’ve purposely avoided anything ‘safe’ here.

Instead, I’m predicting things you could probably get very long odds for, and I’m almost definitely setting myself up to look like a goose at the end of the season.

So there are no ‘Dragons will repeat as premiers’ or ‘a player will get into trouble with the law’ predictions here. Instead, we have some real left-field foretelling.

Without further ado:

The Roosters won’t make the finals
They have the best halves combination in the game, an outstanding captain, a good forward pack, exciting finishers, a very good coach, excellent facilities and resources, and they’re coming off a grand final appearance. So why the hell would I pick them not to make the 8?

For two reasons: firstly, I believe that some teams that didn’t make the 8 last year have gotten immeasurably better. And teams that did make the 8 have also improved. Plus, the Melbourne Storm are eligible to earn points again this year. So the competition will be tougher. But have the Roosters gotten better? I don’t think they have.

Secondly, I think they got on a bit of a roll last year, and played out of their skins. They had fantastic momentum, confidence and belief, and used that to steamroll their way to the finals, much like Parramatta did the year before.

Can you remember a team in any sport making back-to-back Cinderella runs?

Neither can I.

The NSW Blues will win the State of Origin series
There is no logical, intelligent or rational thought behind this prediction.

Queensland have a more talented team, a deeper squad, and they’ve been playing together for some time now. They have quality game-breakers across the park. They’ve won the last 5 series in a row. And their passion and intensity for State of Origin means they’ll never be complacent.

Meanwhile, for NSW, Ricky Stuart’s coaching resume isn’t actually all that impressive. There are few ‘automatic selections’. Some of the potential game-breakers in contention (Dugan and Carney) have never even played State of Origin. And after 5 series losses in a row, there must surely be some mental demons.

So why pick them? Because if Origin has taught me anything, I’ve learnt that it’s unpredictable. With that in mind, I’ve gone against the common sense prediction of Queensland.

The Canberra Raiders will make the grand final
This would be an even easier selection if Terry Campese was fit for Round one. But even as the team stands now, they should give the 2011 premiership a real shake.

Their forward pack might be the best in the competition, with new recruit Brett White joining Dave Shillington, Tom Learoyd-Lahrs, Dane Tilse, etc to form a formidable and intimidating collection of big boppers. And with inspirational Alan Tongue returning from injury, opposition teams are certainly going to require an ice bath after facing the Raiders pack.

The club has also signed experienced halfback Matt Orford, which will add some poise and calmness to an attack that sometimes gets a bit too excited.

With Josh Dugan ready to make the leap to superstar, and plenty of other talented young players, the Raiders look very good in all areas. I think they’re a real dark horse, and I would be disappointed if they finished outside the top 4.

Cooper Cronk will win the Dally M
I don’t think I can stress just how much the Melbourne Storm will be motivated this year. Yes, they’ve lost a lot of talent, and I do have a question mark over their forward pack. But after having the ability to earn competition points taken away from them last year, they’re going to be extremely hungry to play for ‘something’ this year.

Rugby league games will have a meaning and purpose again for them in 2011.

And at the heart of the Storm is their halfback, Cooper Cronk. His partnership with hooker Cameron Smith and fullback Billy Slater is going to be even more important this year, because they’ll be lacking one of their key attacking weapons with the loss of Greg Inglis, along with missing the leadership of Brett Finch.

More responsibility will fall on the halfback to lead his team around the park, and Cronk loves having the ball in his hands and creating opportunities for his teammates.

The Dally M almost always goes to a ball-player, and Cronk will certainly be asked to do a lot of that this year. Combine that with a rejuvenated and motivated Melbourne Storm, and I think Cronk is a good chance of his first Dally M medal.

The Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs will fire their coach, but make the finals
The ‘family club’ will fire one of their own, Kevin Moore? Never. Crazy. Ridiculous.

After a disappointing season in which they missed the finals and finished 13th, the pressure is on coach Moore to return the Dogs to finals footy.

The problem is, whilst they’ve brought in some talent during the off-season, this side lacks a clear leader in the halves, especially with the retirement of Brett Kimmorley. Ben Roberts is an extremely hot-and-cold player, capable of winning you a game just as easily as he is capable of costing you one.

Trent Hodkinson is a quality talent, but it might be a bit much to ask a 22 year old with one year of NRL experience (and in his first season with a new club), to take the reins of an experienced ball club. The same is true of Kris Keating, even though he has a little bit more experience.

The irony is, with a forward pack that includes Frank Pritchard, Andrew Ryan, David Stagg, Michael Ennis, Greg Eastwood, Mickey Paea, Chris Armit and Aiden Tolman, and a potent backline of Josh Morris, Jamal Idris, Ben Barba and Steve Turner, this is one of the easier halves jobs in the NRL.

Can you win if Roberts, Hodkinson and Keating are your choices in the halves? The answer is, not early on, as they’ll need time to settle. Which means the Dogs will be slow out of the gate, management will panic and fire Moore, and a new coach (Kimmorley??) will take over.

From there, the honeymoon period of a new coach will generate some wins, the best halves combination will present itself and grow more comfortable, and the Dogs will go on to make the finals.

(I have a sixth prediction: none of my five previous predictions will eventuate. At least now I’m guaranteed to get one right.)