Gary Ablett of the Gold Coast Suns addresses the media during a press conference at Crown Casino in Melbourne. Slattery Images
They have been widely tipped for the wooden spoon and will be fielding 10-12 AFL debutants against a 2010 finals side, with two-time Brownlow medallist Chris Judd playing his 200th game. But history says the AFL’s newest club, Gold Coast, can win on Saturday night when they meet Carlton at the GABBA.
At least, that’s what people in some quarters are saying when they point to the statistic that four of the six new AFL/VFL clubs in the past 30 years have won their debut game in the competition.
Sydney did it in 1982, West Coast and Brisbane did it in 1987, and Adelaide managed it in 1991 against eventual premiers Hawthorn.
But, of course, history isn’t always reliable and this statistic is tenuous when you ponder Fremantle and Port Adelaide lost their respective opening AFL games in 1995 and 1997.
The AFL has become a lot more professional in recent times, and the surprise factor which a new side can harness to their advantage is no longer as effective in the modern game, where clubs do plenty of pre-game research on their opposition.
Sure, Gold Coast will know more about Carlton than Carlton will know about Gold Coast, but it shouldn’t have a hugely dramatic effect on the game.
As well, unlike previous start-up clubs, this Gold Coast side is filled with plenty of teenagers and youngsters who don’t have much experience against mature-age bodies (although their VFL experiences would’ve helped to some degree) which counts against them. Intimidation could be a factor.
But as Carlton skipper Chris Judd conceded yesterday, a debut game for any club arouses a lot of emotion and there’s no doubt the Suns’ players will be up for the game.
The Suns may be tipped to win only a handful of games this season but I dare say few AFL clubs would have wanted to face them first up.
It’s a tricky fixture and one the Suns could win as there’s so many unknowns going into the contest.
And Carlton’s Round One 20-point victory over unfancied Richmond wasn’t overly convincing (with accuracy a major issue for the Blues), suggesting they could be vulnerable on the journey north, despite their decent interstate record (3-2) in 2010.
To strengthen Gold Coast’s case, they head into the game with basically an injury-free list with Gary Ablett Jnr overcoming the nagging groin complaint which kept him out of pre-season to be fit and ready in a major boost for the start-up franchise.
Referring back to history again, never before has a new club had the best player in the league in their ranks. Ablett’s presence will be a major boon for the Suns.
And they certainly were no disgraces in the NAB Cup in Ablett’s absence, when they defeated Sydney Swans and Greater Western Sydney (albeit in the shortened version of the game) before pushing West Coast who are never easy in Perth.
And we know the arguments about why the Suns will struggle. It’s not that they are short on quality with players like Michael Rischitelli, Nathan Bock, Campbell Brown, Josh Fraser and Jared Brennan in their ranks, it’s that they may lack depth and experience.
If a few of the youngsters – who at this stage are largely unknowns but highly-rated nonetheless – can exceed expectations then perhaps a win is possible on Saturday night.
But the chief concern is their forward line, with all their AFL-listed acquisitions being either defenders or midfielders.
In the VFL last season young duo Brandon Matera and Charlie Dixon led their goalscoring with 22 each. And in their NAB Cup quarter-final loss to the Eagles they did only manage six goals in four quarters of footy. That’s a worry.
But who knows what impact playing at home in their AFL debut game with Ablett in the side will have? They are certainly some factors which offer some optimism to Suns’ fans.
This side may only be fancied to win 4-5 games this season and they may be expected to struggle to avoid the wooden spoon this season, but their debut game is as good a chance as any (particularly with a fit list) to get on the board.
What do you think, can the Suns surprise the Blues? And how many games can they win in 2011?
Macca
Guest
Almost 20 goals and didn't have their first choice full back, CHB, CHF and Kreuzer. Considering a lot of people had the blues finishing outside the 8 you have to ask who will the suns beat. As Dermie said yesterdday each week they will have 5 blokes who aren't up to AFL standard playing.
Mark
Guest
So, Carlton won. By over 100 points. I guess that puts your whole 'Why Gold Coast Suns will win their debut game' article to shame.
db swannie
Guest
Geez ,bang on the money there.
Side by Side
Guest
The Suns licence was acquired by the hierachy of the Southport Sharks who had in their constitution the aim of getting an AFL licence. They also work very hard at supplying AFL grade players. Check out ex Southport players currently playing in the league starting with Riewoldt. A very professional group. You'll find irregardless of what happens this season, the Suns will be well placed in the coming years. As for crowds, you'd be amazed at how many used to go to the Sharks ground to watch pre season practice games, the place is full of ex Vics. The game against Carlton could turn out in many ways, NOBODY KNOWS. The Gabba can be very hard on the legs and Carlton have to back up after last weeks grind against Richmond. Possible rain is also a factor. Temperature is not, it's been quite a cool summer in SEQ. Hope this helps
kick to kick
Guest
Even the worst team in AFL history , the collapsing Fitzroy in 1996, won one game. GC with the optimism of youth should better that.
Macca
Guest
If the interchanges were capped on a per quarter basis then the team would only be down a player for the last minute or so of the quarter and that is only if the coaching staff is incompetent enough not to have kept 1 interchange up their sleeve. Given the level of planning and attention to detail I doubt it would ever occur.
Macca
Guest
Who will they beat? And Remember they play West Coast and Port Adelaide away.
amazonfan
Roar Guru
No team, no matter how bad they are, has ever lost zero games, and I doubt GC will be the first.
amazonfan
Roar Guru
Well, to be fair, the current Blues setup hasn't been playing since 1864. :D However, I do agree that Carlton should have a big win.
Pffft
Guest
That's more than the Titans would be expecting to get. Good effort first up. Will be interesting to see if the can keep it up.
Robynt
Guest
Blues should win this one, the mighty Chris Judd;s 200th so there's som eemotion for the Blues. They should have pur Richmond away by 1/2 time last week but missed many easy shots, blues play the Gabba well and expect a 6 goal win, expect a fading sunset in the second half
Australian Football: Central Coast Represent
Guest
I can guarantee you that Gold Coast will not finish with the wooden spoon. They have a quality team with the best young players from the country and a superstar coaching commitee. They with win between 5 and 8 games finishing in a comfortable position. they will be competitive in every game they play and might be the underdog of the league. Next they will be twice as good and i wont be suprised if they play in a grand final in a few years.
Redb
Roar Guru
I don't have any Carlton players in my dreamteam on principle. As for capping the interchange, if you've reached the cap and a player gets injured you are down to 17 men. With the current system if you get more than one injured player you can still field a full side.
Macca
Guest
Probably Brisbane after their injuries last week but Gold coast wouldn't start favourites their either.
Jaceman
Guest
Good point and who is the weakest team this year - Port??
the truth hurts
Guest
A Bummers fan complaining about free kicks. I've seen it all.
Macca
Guest
The subs aren't always taken from the bench player, Carlton named Kane Lucas on a wing and yet he turned out to be the sub, The blues also named Gibbs on the Bench so would you have removed him? As for what happens if you reach you cap and get an injury, I could ask what happnes if you make your su and get an injury (or another injury). Plus we would be talking about a cap of say 25 interchanges a quarter, there is only 20 minute of actual playing time plus time on of say 8 to 10 minutes. If coaches can't manage an interchange a minute then they have some issues.
Redb
Roar Guru
25K. Will go close to sell out for sure against Geelong.
Redb
Roar Guru
I remove any interchange selected players from my Dreamteam anyway. Capping the interchange would have created much more confusion for coaches, possibly creating farcical interchange errors and more umpire intervention. Plus what happens if you reach the cap and a player gets injured?
davelee
Guest
that'd be fantstic. wonder what theyd get for their carrara debut in rnd10 against geelong? whats the capacity down there?