Steven Johnson of Geelong is tackled by St Kilda’s Andrew McQualter. AAP Image/Joe Castro
Following the ominous losses of dual premiership combination Gary Ablett and Mark Thompson, the aging Geelong list had been earmarked for a decline from a four-year period of being the competition’s benchmark.
The premiership window was closing and the emergence of Collingwood shot bullet holes in the near flawless Geelong game-plan which netted three grand final appearances and two flags. Enter Chris Scott.
Geelong’s period of sustained dominance can be partially contributed to underrated recruiting manager Stephen Wells, who in conjunction with Mark Thompson drafted the core of Geelong’s premiership teams between the 1999 and 2001 AFL drafts without any assistance from tanking:
1999: Joel Corey (8), Paul Chapman (31), Cameron Ling (38) and Corey Enright (47)
2000: Josh Hunt (44)
2001: Jimmy Bartel (8), James Kelly (17), Steve Johnson (24) and Gary Ablett (40 F/S)
Barring Josh Hunt, those names are the first picked each week and have played alongside each other for their entire AFL careers to form the crux of Geelong’s team.
With the draft system operating in a way that teams will cycle from top to bottom before returning to the top, premiership windows are usually only open for three years when the core of talent are all in the peaks of their careers. So by logic, the declining class of 1999-2001 should mean Chris Scott is doomed to spend some time rebuilding in the near future.
Over the next two years, Geelong is likely to lose Darren Milburn, Cameron Mooney, Matthew Scarlett, Brad Ottens, David Wojcinski, Paul Chapman and Cameron Ling with Joel Corey and Corey Enright not far behind. By keeping the best team on the field each week during the premiership runs, Joel Selwood and Harry Taylor were the only draftees from 2007 onwards to hold a regular spots in the Geelong line-up.
An impenetrable team prompted the departures of Brent Molony (2004), Henry Playfair (2007), Tim Callan (2007), Brent Prismall (2008), Shane Mumford (2009) Broadie Moles (2009), Jeremy Laidler (2010), Ryan Gamble (2010) and Nathan Djukerra (2010) to find new clubs where they would be given greater opportunities.
Given the absence of these players, Joel Selwood appears to be the only link between the old and new class of players.
Despite finishing second in the 2010 AFL season, Geelong’s VFL affiliate side finished 10th indicating a large discrepancy between players 16-22 and 22-30. This is a significant difference to the 2007 season when Geelong won the premierships in both competitions.
Given the task to keep Geelong’s premiership window open while blooding youth and getting games into youngsters, Scott faces a delicate balancing act by playing a team which may win a flag as the window closes or play a team which will avoid a bottom four finish in the coming years. The answer should be a no-brainer.
Watching Cameron Guthrie, Taylor Hunt and Daniel Menzel on Friday night showed that Geelong’s kids are still not ready for AFL football based on their decision making. Mitch Duncan was the exception.
In the absence of Cameron Ling, Paul Chapman, Shannon Byrnes and James Podsiadly, none of their performances suggest they are capable of playing 15-plus games this year.
Gifted with what other new coaches can only be envious of, Scott has a list capable of winning the flag this year. Giving Travis Varcoe and Mitch Duncan only brief stints in the centre bounces; Scott has made his intentions clear that an extensive rebuilding phase is out of the question.
The arrival of Scott has also reinvigorated the games of David Wojcinski and Tom Lonergan who were both impressive in new roles.
One man Chris Scott can seek advice from is Neil Craig who left the decision of whether to play on up to veterans Andrew McLeod, Tyson Edwards, Simon Goodwin and Brett Burton.
If Scott holds onto his superstars for too long, like Craig, he will have a good team. But good teams don’t win premierships; great teams do.
Scott must gamble with his future and continue to push for the flag this year rather than prepare for the decline. With a list still hovering around greatness, Scott must coach out the 2011 season with his experienced players in their premiership-winning positions if Geelong is to genuinely challenge for the flag.
Come the end of the 2011 and 2012 seasons, Chris Scott will be the most unenviable man in the league when he must assess the superstar class of 1999-2001 against the future of the club.
He must not play kids merely to get games into them.
Alfred Chan
Expert
The game against Geelong will give a measure of both teams and the relevance of their coaches, If Geelong comes out and dominates the Bombers, the success of two flags will very quickly be stripped from Mark Thompson and attributed to the playing group and there will be intense scrutiny over how much money Thompson is really earning at the Bombers, Considering the payout for Knights and Hird, this could be a big talking point in regards to Essendon's finances. If Essendon comes out an wallops Geelong, it will show how much influence Thompson has on the game still and that he single-handedly made Geelong what it was and not offering Thompson more money may have cost Geelong another flag. A close game will be ideal and push the media towards actually talking footy.
Football Fan
Guest
I would have thought playing against the premiers would have been a better test of how far you've come? Cos everyone has had the wood on Essendon for the last 4 years RedB! ;) (except St Kilda, which has been one of the funniest parts of recent seasons.)
Redb
Roar Guru
The Collingwood game is a given, however I think the battle against the Cats holds more emotion.
I think the game which will really show where Essendon are at is the one against Collingwood. I believe the Magpies are seven goals better than any other team in the comp at the present time so using them would be our best guideline.
Redb
Roar Guru
How so. it was never fair that Geelong beat Essendon with an Esendon premiership player as coach. I look forward to it.
Redb
Roar Guru
mcsimmo, On the contrary, I think the media has played both sides of the coin. One on hand they pump the Bombers up, on the other they appeal to the opposition fans like yourself who beleive the media's spin about Bomber fan hype. I went to the game I dont need the media to judge how well the Bombers went.
gazz
Roar Pro
your theory is a bit of a stretch. but hey, maybe ur right.
Alfred Chan
Expert
Let's use Matthew Pavlich as an example. Last year, Fremantle we're a chance - not a good one but they certainly deserved to play finals. Mark Harvey started the the year with Pav at CHF where he and Fremantle had a stellar first half. He was playing kids to get games into them, Stars like Sandilands, Barlow and Pav we're pulling them through week in week out. Pav was then moved into the mid-field more and more towards the end of the season where his form fell. This contributed to Freo's weak end to the season. Campbell Brown - Pulled from defence to play forward so the young defenders could get games. Had very little impact last year compared to previous. When fresh coaches move experienced players around to make room for inexperienced youngsters, things go pear shaped.
gazz
Roar Pro
??? i dont get this ??
mcsimmo
Roar Rookie
Settle Redb, winning round 1 doesn't mean the Bombers are top 4 material yet, don't listen too much to the papers!
mcsimmo
Roar Rookie
Over the past few seasons it has been obvious that the youngsters Geelong has tried to blood mostly haven't been up to it and it's going to be up to their veterans to win them games this year. While this year they still have a chance at the flag, it is the following years where there's going to be some interesting decisions to make, as you say.
EricBloom
Roar Rookie
How can that be a good measure? Mark Thompson knows the Geelong game better than anyone. It would not be a fair game.
Alfred Chan
Expert
Paul Roos - Adam Goodes Mark Harvey - Matthew Pavlich Dean Bailey - Aaron Davey Matthew Knights - Matthew Lloyd Matthew Knights - Adam McPhee Matthew Knights - Paddy Ryder Brett Ratten - Chris Yarren (still early) Mark Williams - Chad Cornes Grant Thomas - Brent Guerra Ross Lyon - Justin Kozsitski Alistair Clarkson - Campbell Brown More often than not, good players lose influence on the game or leave the club.
Redb
Roar Guru
Geelong are a good team still with some superstars (Bartel, Selwood, Scarlett) however there is a strong case for beleiving they will slip out of the Top 4 this year. Geelong have consistently had the wood on Essendon for 4 seasons. I can't wait until Essendon play Geelong that will be a better guide than anything of one teams potential rise and another's fall.
"Scott must gamble with his future and continue to push for the flag this year rather than prepare for the decline. With a list still hovering around greatness, Scott must coach out the 2011 season with his experienced players in their premiership-winning positions if Geelong is to genuinely challenge for the flag." OK, is there any coach who does not, intentionally, put his best side on the paddock when his team is considered a premiership chance ? I think not ! Scott will play his best players in their best positions until such time as injury or circumstance forces him to do otherwise. Although he might like to blood new players he wont do so at the teams' expense.