Reds Will Genia is caught in the Hurricanes defence in the Super Rugby match at Westpac Stadium, New Zealand, Saturday, April 30, 2011. (AAP Images/NZPA, Ross Setford)
What a difference a successful penalty kick can make. If Aaron Cruden, who had kicked poorly all night, had missed that dying seconds’ shot from 35m, the Reds would have defeated the Hurricanes and moved to 43 points on the table, equal leaders of the tournament with the Blues.
As I have pointed out several times, there are two competitions in play in the new Super Rugby format.
The first involves winning one of the three country based conferences. The winning teams get home finals in a six-team finals format. The top two overall winners avoid the first round of finals and play their semi-final at home.
Right now, the Reds are facing the prospect of being third-placed overall, although the leading New Zealand teams, the Blues, the Crusaders and the Highlanders could cannibalise each other’s chances by taking wins off each other.
This process has already started with the Highlanders defeating the Crusaders two weeks ago and then the Blues defeating the Highlanders last weekend.
The Stormers victory over the Sharks, second-ranked team in the South African conference, suggests that they will win all the second round of local derbies matches.
The Reds should do the same with their local derbies against the Rebels (next week) and then the Brumbies and the Western Force.
Only the match against the Force at Perth should pose difficulties.
The Force were terrific against the Crusaders in a match that was an absolute thriller right down to the last plays.
The Reds, though, still have to play the Crusaders and Blues in two home matches, and the Chiefs at Hamilton which will be the easiest of these matches by a long stretch.
The Waratahs were able to make up a little ground on the points table against the Reds. The gap between the teams was 11 points. It is now 8 points.
The Waratahs have an easy run home (as far as any match in Super Rugby is easy). They play the Force, Highlanders, the Brumbies and the Lions at home, and the Sharks and Bulls in South Africa.
Although this run home is much easier than that of the Reds, I don’t believe the Waratahs can win the Australian conference. They will be struggling, in my opinion, to make the final six.
I watched the match on Saturday night at SFS from a box behind the posts, courtesy of Qantas and their Great Crusade promotion.
It was noticeable from this angle that the Waratahs pose no threats to their opposition when they move the ball out wide. The ball is merely passed out by each runner who moves across the line to present his inside shoulder to the outside shoulder of the runner.
This line of attack is a recipe for being smashed in the tackle. Runners should present their outside shoulder to the inside (weak) shoulder of the defender.
Why is the backs coach of the Waratahs, Scott Bowen, allowing this method to persist?
It was also noticeable that there were no other runners coming from depth giving an option to a playmaker.
What this meant on Saturday night is that the defence had the simple task of having to identify the runner and then tackle him. Contrast this with, say, the Reds and the way they flood the area behind the playmaker Quade Cooper with runners coming from everywhere.
It is a defensive nightmare trying to work out who is going to get the pass from Cooper, and when. Even good defensive sides have difficulty coping with this attacking system. It is a reason why, despite the loss to the Hurricanes (a hoodoo team for the Reds), the Reds are still very much in contention for a title win.
All the leading teams in the competition, in fact, with the exception of the Waratahs, score tries from set moves, and this includes the improving Western Force who have Phil Blake (the former coach of Manly) as their skills coach. The backs coach of the Reds is Jim McKay, a former Warringah and Randwick player.
My question is this: why does NSW rugby allow its coaching talent to go to other franchises when this talent is badly needed in the Waratahs franchise?
Behind this question is the fear that the next coach of the Waratahs will be Michael Foley, the present forwards coach.
Admittedly, it was a damp evening but the crowd at the SFS is down to 20,000 or so true believers.
When you compare the sparkling rugby of the Reds, the Force, the Crusaders and the Hurricanes (admittedly only last weekend) with the lacklustre stuff the Waratahs are delivering you have to wonder why the board of the Waratahs isn’t sending out signals that it is looking for someone like Alan Gaffney or Todd Louden to take over next season.
I suppose the main positive from the round as far as the Waratahs are concerned, aside from the chance to make up some points on the Reds, is the fact that they won a reasonably comfortable victory over the Rebels even though the referee was their nemesis (14 losses out of 15 matches), Jonathan Kaplan.
Perhaps knowing their record of losing when Kaplan is refereeing them concentrated the minds of the Waratahs.
They not only won the match, they also conceded few penalties (7 as opposed to the 9 against the Rebels) which means they won the battle of the penalty count, too.
Shahsan
Guest
One side feature of both the Reds' loss to the Hurricanes and the Cheetah's loss also to the Hurricanes a few weeks ago, both right at the death, was that the two losing teams didnt know how to close out the game, the way Meleamu's Blues did against the Highlanders. In the Cheetahs game, Pretorius, who had scored three tries, went for an attacking run when he should have kept it tight and ended up handing over possession. A few passes later, Thrush scored the winner at the other end. In the Reds' game, the forwards had done a lot of good work keeping it tight but in attack, but when Cooper got the ball, he tried an outrageous crossfield kick when he shoudl have just kept it tight for the remaining minute or so. True enough, the Canes swept upfield, incuding past a woeful tackle by Cooper, and they won the deciding penalty. It is composure in tight situations -- or to quote Clive Woodward, TCUP (thinking clearly under pressure) -- that separates winners from losers, and is a lesson players with ambitions of winning the biggest trophies should learn.
Nick_KIA
Guest
That's either some soft boots or a rock hard ass.
JB
Guest
Sprio, while everyone seems to agree that the Waratahs are playing unattractive rugby, the coach is a (very successful) product of the NSW Shute Shield Rugby Comp. For me, the Q is where is the Tahs team of Round 1 and Round 2. While much was made of their stifling play to beat the reds in Round 2, I didn't think they were THAT dull! Also, the sooner we stop bagging Kaplan, the better, as it shows that we are mentally weak / lack confidence in games that he refs. Steering away from politics and back to rugby, I think since Drew Mitchell left the scene, Turner has been playing outstanding rugby. While not as damaging a runner as Ioane, I think Turner has better skills. Also, would you pick anyone from the Rebels to make the Wallabies squad? Perhaps Gerard?
Gary Russell-Sharam
Guest
I just love the bleating of the Tahs followers, a little bit of criticism and they are hooting and hollering gee you blokes are on yourselves. The Tahs have been non achieving for years in so far as they don't achieve to their potential. They have had some really great players and have some at the moment but they just don't seem to achieve to what you would expect. I can easily understand the chagrin that is expressed in these posts. The solution is to get a good coach and believe in him.
the woodster
Guest
Just watched the replay lastnight. Will genia can you say road kill? lolol tialatas boots have an imprint of genias ass.
Handles O'Love
Guest
Insisting that he grounded the ball and was on the bottom of the pile, when the replays clearly show otherwise, should count as "carrying on".
soapit
Guest
they scored no tries in their first game against nsw in good conditions. not sure if cipriani was playing that night.
Tank
Guest
Do you guys go to any games or are you just one eyed waratah supporters? Every time a penalty goes against the Tahs he is complaining the in backgraound. I was present at the Brumbries games when he gave it to the crowd after the win. He carried on after been caught out trying to cheat a try against the Reds. And do I need to mention the Rugby club with the piggies & princesses!
stojo01
Guest
actually i'm wrong it doesn't have to be a scrum from a mark in the ingoal
stojo01
Guest
Hurricanes were rubish at the breakdown like they have been all year. Too many roly pollies trying to pick up the ball instead of cleaning out and taking the space. Why REDS couldn't drive through the middle and counter ruck against hurricanes like every other team i don't know. QLD tried to kill WLG quick ball by driving and walking around like the Highlanders had to against the Blues the night before, if they had trusted their backline defense a bit more the Hurricanes would have folded after 5 breakdowns. I read the mark rules after the QLD WLG game and it has to be a clean take, also noticed that the Mark taken by Stefan Terre Blanch in the ingoal at the 66th minute of sharks stormers game should have been a 5 metre scrum to the defending sharks. Underline how poor a ref Jaco Pieper is. Thought the referreing a bit inconsistent in the Force Crusaders game with the players getting up and going after the tackle. The commentary from Mainlanders and wellingtonians in the Blues Highlanders game was a bit one eyed Justin Marshal should know when a ruck has formed. Thought Tim Horan commentary was almost as good as Jon Preston usually is. SBW over commits in defense especially when there is a prospect of an opposition player going into touch like the big prize that it is in Rugby League, leaves his team open to the inside pass saw it multiple times in the Force game and also that is how he broke his leg on the small European grounds when he first went to France
kingplaymaker
Roar Guru
They can make up for it in attack though. The Rebels had no attack without them, scored no tries (for the first time this season?) and lost the match.
Sylvester Hyde
Guest
I thought none of the three players were tackled, so the Force were unlucky with one call against their man. Not sure that was the one that swung the match though.
PeterK
Roar Guru
The stats with Cruden are revealing, Cruden is more of an individual runner like Giteau or JoC , not as much as playmakers as Cooper is. The yardage means litlle. Cooper sets up more players for tries than anyone. Who has the better longer pass? Who puts more players into gaps? Who is the creator of more tires by other players? That is what should be measured.
duncw
Guest
ra ra ra look at the Tahs seven or so on the ladder, and they lost to the Cheetahs.... easy run home? they might beat the Lions and Force, (that will be tough tho), but the others will believe they can knock off the Tahs.... Mr Peter Marks - loved your post about QC, including the final summation about moving on post-WC. As a Kiwi I think players like Morahan and Gerrard are under rated, at least they tackle and know how to play proper rugby football...
Bored of the haters
Guest
Well put John! I'd also like to know when Carter has carried on like a pork chop? For a guy who does more player appearances than anyone, and is probably one of the more professional, committed, team players on and (equally as important) off the field, I'd say your comments are absurd!
Peter Marks
Guest
Danny Cipriani got dropped from the Rebels because of his defensive deficiencies, but if you followed Quade Cooper around the field on Saturday night you saw that either he was hidden behind the defensive line or stayed on the flanks. I can only assume that this is team policy, which is a stark admission about a flyhalf sometimes touted as the best in the business. He attempted only two tackles all night, both of which he missed. The second of these was on Hosea Gear, a powerful and difficult guy to bring down in any situation, but the first was on Hurricanes halfback Chris Eaton, hardly the strongest of attackers. In both cases Cooper's technique was wanting, and I think more generally his defensive commitment is woeful. He's not the first flyhalf to shirk the hard stuff (see Andrew Mehrtens) but I'm sure that the major Super teams along with the international sides will have noticed his absence. You could see him on the periphery of Hurricane tries in the replays, but only there. Additionally, for all his brilliance (and his kick to Luke Morahan was a beautiful thing) he has no great tactical sense and unless his team is dominant he goes awol too regularly. Saturday was one of those times. Sometimes his positional kicking is inspired but as he showed last week--when 5 kicks went astray--he's just as likely to miss hit the ball as king hit it. The no-look pass to Morahan for the second try was slick, but a no-look pass in the end is just a pass and Morahan still had 50 metres and the Hurricanes to get through. The comparison of his stats with Aaron Cruden was revealing--Cruden ran 3 or 4 times as many yards, and regularly took the ball forward into the tackle. While only a little guy, Cruden showed guts. I realise that I'm being highly critical of a player who has immense potential but I think Cooper gets huge reviews on the basis of occasional flashes or parts of individual games rather than from sustained performances against the best teams. He is still very much the unfinished article, and as I assume he's going to league after the World Cup he'll stay that way.
John Alleyne
Guest
Please tell us when Tom Carter has carried on in 2011
Justin
Guest
They were dropped because they are 2 of THE worst defenders in the comp. Simple as that. Vuna is horrendous in both defence and tackling. Cips is just as bad at tackling and maybe a little better at defending space. They are two of the primary reasons the Rebels had let in a comp high 43 tries before Saturday night. Betham should have been given a run a lot sooner than he has. His pre season form was blistering vs The Crusaders. Mitchell has been awful most of the year yet ironically had a half decent match on Saturday, his first all year.
Hombre
Roar Rookie
"Instead of sticking with Cipriani and working on his defence as Queensland did with Cooper ... " Sorry KPM but there's no evidence whatsoever that Cooper's defence has improved - at the end of the day all the coaching in the world can only go so far, the player has to bring some bottle and neither Cooper or Cipriani appear to want be be involved and the higher up you go the more exposed you get
scottmit
Guest
Looked to me that the Reds are bringing on Harris as the alternate playmaker, having dropped Fianga'a as too limited. The first try was scored from his distribution not Cooper's.