NRL clubs have been living in a false economy for decades, sucking up the massive profits from poker machines. But with the change in tax laws, many clubs are struggling for survival and aren’t creative enough to develop an alternative money stream.
The obvious alternative to poker machines is sports betting and the incremental cash that it will inject into the game. Betting on rugby league is booming and the NRL can “request” a product fee from the bookmakers who wager on the game.
The final details are likely to be inherited by the soon to be formed Independent Commission, who will likely be advised by the High Court decision in Canberra in June between big bookies Sportsbet and Betfair, who have protested against a 1.5 per cent tax imposed on them by Racing NSW.
Regardless of the outcome, the NRL have the benefit of observing the Racing Victorian model who has implemented a successful product tax based on gross profit.
There is a much bigger challenge for the NRL that has gained momentum since Bill Harrigan and Stuart Raper replaced Robert Finch as the new bosses of referees this season. What has happened is that we are seeing some “strange” results.
Harrigan and Raper have not introduced any new rules but they have instructed their referees to rule on them differently. Many players cannot comprehend the change and are constantly penalised for simple things like walking off the mark, playing the ball correctly, not walking over the line before a kick off, a drop out or feeding a scrum with both hands.
These rules are black and white and no player or coach can have a complaint, but the clamp down on the forward pass has been a shocker and almost on a weekly basis we are seeing forward passes that are not picked up and good passes that are ruled as forward.
This is not black and white and very much a human decision from a referee or linesman (assistant referee). This is not working for them or the game and they must re-evaluate how they rule on something that is often pivotal to the result on the game.
Maybe the video ref from a position of elevation can assist.
If a pass is flat then it should not be ruled on unless is it clearly illegal.
The other major gaffe that the game has inherited from the new NRL bosses is a failure to go to the video ref for another opinion. This is such a simple act to implement and will give fans what they want, the correct and just result.
Phil Rothfield reported that: “Sydney’s biggest punters have been scared off betting on rugby league by the poor standard of refereeing.” May I suggest to Phil that it is not just punters in Sydney.
You may be thinking “so what” or “who cares”, but if the NRL clubs are going to look at the punting dollar to replace the poker machine money train, then the Commission should take on board that literally millions of dollars a week, that were once invested in rugby league, are now going to the AFL.
The punters mentioned in Rothfield’s story are Eddie Hayson and Kingsley Bartholomew and are highlighted in my eBook “Living and Learning with the World’s Biggest Punters”, and both these guys love rugby league but importantly they are both highly intelligent, and when they decide to give their huge business to another sport the NRL and the Commission should ask why.
The simple answer is that the best team is not always winning because the referees are having too big a say. The best team in AFL games on the day is perceived to win with no adverse impact from the man in the middle with the whistle.
It is a fact that the NRL has drawn closer to rugby union since Harrigan and Raper took over. It had become more stop and start and penalties are crucial to who wins, not the best team on the day.
The world’s biggest punter Zeljko Ranogajec, lives in Sydney and is another NRL fan but he is known to be investing heavily into AFL and has instructed his software team to build a state of the art stats system.
Australia’s biggest bookie Matt Tripp, who also punts heavily on the NRL, sent me a text message last month during an NRL game when a try resulted from a clear ref error: “That will do me… that would never happen in AFL.”
Bill Harrigan can no longer front the media and say that he is happy with the way things are going. If these major players are turning away from the NRL who invest hundreds of million each year, that has huge ramifications in the future for the clubs when they ask for a product fee hand out.
You can be certain that many small punters will be following these big punters if we continue to see games that are decided by the ref and not the players.
I know these punters both big and small and they all cannot be wrong. Over to you Bill and Stu.
Maroonski
Guest
I couldn't agree more with fly on the wall (3rd May). He's right in my opinion. Ref's are supposed to attend training, right, so whats wrong with them being trained to rule on the laws of the game the same way. Different ref's, different interpretations. some are more lenient than others and this does not make for even contests All us fans want is consistancy, ( especially in the laying all over the tackled player when he is trying to rise to play the ball).
mushi
Guest
Wait a minute so you are saying that the biggest punters have identified a variable which consistently affects the result but isn’t reflected in the odds…and are complaining? Isn’t this betting nirvana? Information asymmetry is their entire game so I fail to see why this asymmetry is scaring them off. Also even the most cursory analysis of the two games suggests that another root of the problem isn’t the standard of refereeing but the actual games themselves. The score line effect of a bad decision in both games is 6 points however 6 points is on average less important in an AFL game than the NRL so the same standard of refereeing will have an outsized influence in the NRL.
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
Cizzy Nothing to do with bookies. You missed the entire point.
lopati
Guest
Seems the issue is not so much the penalties, but inconsistencies of policing. Some refs are known to be a bit lighter then others (particularly in the ruck) - can't be helped. But some refs being stricter than others with forward passes and walking off the mark (clear technical issues), or worse seeming to tolerate the first few infractions before cracking down while others crack down from the very first play is not providing a level playing field. In short sometimes we see the same infraction (even sometimes on the same day) treated differently by different refs - and that means one of those teams infractiing is getting an easier ride, and therefore the competition becomes uneven. Yes over 26 weeks it sort of evens out, but bookies are not taking 26 week long bets, they are taking bets per game. One answer is technology, it's possible to chip balls to measure forward passes (yes it cxan deal with forward momentum of the player vs release direction). Until the technology is installed (and perhaps even after) why can't video refs be engaged to rule on mid play action - get rid of the 2nd ref and replace them with the video ref using a higher vantage point (communicating to on-field ref) - for instance it's far easier to see players jumping early from above then at same/ground level. Who cares about the stop-start, it's being used as an easy excuse for poor ref issues - what everybody wants is 1. a hell of a lot more consistency in application of rules, (including no first couple of times grace periods) 2. much more certainty in decisions. Technology can provide 90% of that, only leaves 10% for the refs (- and having taken 90% of the work off the refs they should have little trouble with the rest.)
CizzyRascal
Roar Guru
Oh and just would like to say that sport should never bow to the pressure of bookies. Bookies should work around what sport wants to do, otherwise there is just something completely wrong going on.
Redb
Roar Guru
It's a storm in a teacup and not the first time someone in RL circles is using the fear factor of AFL as a wedge to bring about a result. See Greg Inglis. It is reactionary the supposed threats of AFL.
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
Fly We should have 100% professional refs now. On Mr. Ribot all of the Clubs that he founded have won Grand finals and deemed very successful, not to mention 2 coaches that he hired - Bennett (broncos) and Bellamy (Storm). The Roar are the present Premiers. Oh , and last count I think he owns 10 clubs and about 850 poker machines. It is a shame that he is ineligible for the IC and they need people like him.
Fly on the Wall
Guest
And Ribot was so smart that all those ventures turned big profits ? Wrong. He just wanted a piece of the pie. Betting is the scourge of modern day sport and is totally ruining it for everyone. I do not ever want to see or hear some parasite telling me to get on a particular team at a particular stage of a game because the score has changed. I want to watch or listen to top level sport, preferably without ads, definitely without gambling being shoved down my gob, and preferably without statements of the bleeding obvious by the likes of Andrew Johns and Brad Fittler. For all the millions in the game the umpires are still the worst trained / paid / developed. Address that issue first and you'll start getting more decisions right.
mjpt
Guest
wrong -the analytical references are completely different. NOw they look for ALL the evidence to support the premise.Very dangerous as the more evidence you gather, the more confidence in the result. It used to be just the one thing to look for - the ball over the white line. it s gone from "does a+b=c ? to "we have c, therefore a and b exist-look for evidence to refute the claim"- very different terms of reference have seen 6 examples where tries were not conclusive but given based on the new way the question is asked. By the way-cannot rule on forward passes. I like your thinking though- ALL tries refer to vid ref who looks for ANYTHING in the lead up to refute the try. NFL instituting this next season, just too much at stake and results too close to do otherwise... .
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
yewonk I have not met many smarter businessmen than John Ribot. He founded the Broncos, the Storm, the Brisbane Roar and, oh yes, Super League only because the players were getting ripped off.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
heh, heh, the Geisch was only barely a player!! :)
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
yewonk I would be happy for the IC to only have businessmen with no ex footballers and no affiliation to any clubs.
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
Redb Punters and bookies certainly should not influence but if millions of dollars was earmarked for your business and it went to your opposition I would think it prudent that you find out the reason. There is a reason and the good news is that it is fixable.
yewonk
Guest
hmmm did not realise that of andrew and i pick him as the most ruthless. alas i belive there is no equvilent of andrew in rugby league.
Redb
Roar Guru
As is Geischen head of the umpires.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
as is Buckley, as is Fitzgerald, a few independent commissioners were not...
Redb
Roar Guru
Andrew Demetriou is an ex player.
yewonk
Guest
on the other hand the game seems to have an obsession of blaming the referees for everything and then it is anlyzed forever. in fact most of the commentary is soured by constant snipes at this ruling and that ruling talk back radio makes for dull listening in the week should a ref miss a forward pass on the weekend. perhaps we would all enjoy ourselves more if outstanding player performance and team supporter loyalty was positivly priorized in both commentary and the fans themselves afterall the footy is for enterainment.
yewonk
Guest
the problem is our administrators are ex footballers not administrators and this is why i cant understand why people say the ic must have ex players who know the game, in some ways it runs against the very purpose of an independant commision. shrewd buisness people would make better decisions in this instance than the footballers.
Redb
Roar Guru
Interesting article Scott. I can see your relaying some on the ground info but I guess I don't watch enough NRL to see the effect your explaining but to be honest it seems a bit unrealistic that a giant trend is under way. This has the hallmarks of storm in a teacup, perhaps just a protest by the big time punters? Which should be ignored. Mistakes occur in AFL as well, look at the interchange debacle in the Swans game, cost them momentum and probably the game. That said the astute punter can do quite well out of AFL if you know your stuff. At the end of the day, punters & betting agencies should have zero say in the running of sport. Like it or lump it would be my attitude if I was the NRL. If the Ref's need to adjust their intepretations it should come at zero influence from these people and only when for the benefit of the game itself for fans.