It was a question posed early on by many: who will fill the No. 10 jersey should Daniel Carter be unavailable during the rugby World Cup? While there are a bunch of contenders, the answer to the question is still as unclear as it was six months ago.
The obvious choice would be the Highlanders marquee signing Colin Slade.
He has a very good all round game and possesses the ability to kick, run and pass effectively. Despite a lack of experience at Test match level, he controlled the second half in last years third Bledisloe Cup Test well and showed he has the head for the game.
But it may not be as simple as that. Slade has already broken his jaw twice this season and after playing only a handful of games, will not return for the rest of the Super Rugby season.
He also carries a groin injury that could be a long term problem if he doesn’t get it right. This could be enough to make him unavailable for the All Blacks come World Cup time.
So who to then? Stephen Donald, Luke McAlister, Aaron Cruden and Stephen Brett are the four obvious contenders.
All have their merits, but none bring the same confidence that Carter and Slade bring to the table.
Of these four, Donald has the most experience in the No. 10 jumper at test match level. He has an impressive record at provincial and Super Rugby level, but for one reason or another has failed to bring this to the international stage.
In Super Rugby he is a dangerous runner, a reasonable kicker and a good director of a dangerous backline.
However, Test match rugby is a whole new ball game and there have been numerous players that have been superstars at lower levels that have struggled to cope at the higher level. Donald certainly falls into this category, playing some truly forgettable games in the black jersey.
The most likely reason behind this comes in the pressure of filling the boots of Daniel Carter, arguably the best back in the world. Whatever the reason, it is essential to pick someone who performs at this level, regardless of their form at lower levels, something that the three wise men seem to have overlooked in recent years.
The second candidate mentioned was Luke McAlister.
He has 30 Test caps making him the most experienced of the four contenders, however most of these caps come wearing the No. 12 jersey which doesn’t always translate to being comfortable wearing 10.
The main plus for McAlister is his kicking. He is without doubt the most consistent goal kicker of the contenders which could be the difference between a win and a loss in a close game.
He can be dangerous on attack, but can tend to take wrong options, often kicking good attacking ball. Likewise, he can be found wanting in defence at times, going too high in tackles, shown by the number of times he has suffered from broken jaws.
The next contender comes in the youngster Aaron Cruden.
After being proclaimed as the next big thing after a stellar tournament with the New Zealand Under 20’s, Cruden was promoted into the Manawatu ITM Cup side and then the Hurricanes.
He was then given an All Blacks call up for last year’s Tri-Nations. At times he showed glimpses of the talent he has been said to possess. But the simple facts are that it’s just too big a step up from playing under 20’s to playing international rugby.
The speed and physicality of the game was where he struggled the most and his tactical kicking has been average at best.
So on to our fourth and final candidate, Stephen Brett.
Brett is the only one of these four to have never played for the All Blacks and many people may question his inclusion on this list.
But his recent form has been the best of any of the contenders for the position. He has a very good running game, which he has used to put the dangerous Blues backline into space and has proved hard to stop. Again, his kicking is suspect and his inclusion in the team would mean another goal kicker would have to be present.
So then, who to take? At this stage Slade would be the man provided he is available.
But what if he’s not?
None of the four men’s cases bring the confidence one would want from an All Black first five.
It seems unlikely that they will go back to Cruden and Brett has confirmed that the All Blacks coaches have not talked to him, indicating he isn’t in the mix.
Therefore it comes down to McAlister and Donald.
Personally, I think McAlister edges out Donald due to having a better kicking game, but I think the All Black selectors will go with Donald.
Donald has been tried before and while not always successful, at least has some experience at Test match level. In the past, the selectors have fallen back on Donald when unsure who to go with and it wouldn’t be a surprise to seem them do it again.
Only this time, don’t expect them to use him unless absolutely necessary.
At a time where New Zealand rugby is so strong, this is the one position that they are struggling to fill. In the four years since the last World Cup there hasn’t been one obvious candidate put their hand up and should Colin Slade not be available, every person in New Zealand will be praying that Daniel Carter doesn’t succumb to injury between now and October.
Moaman
Guest
Am surprised Berquist has not been mentioned.
Sylvester Hyde
Guest
McAllister looks the mostly likely, although it's slightly worrying for me that's he's not playing 10 this season. Regardless, I never rated him as a first five and still don't, but experience counts for a lot. Slade will either be back up to Carter next year or the man main if Carter leaves. Despite not having played much in the 10 jersey at Super level, you can just tell he has right the skills and temperament to nail it. Will need to work on goal-kicking though.
dunc
Guest
I reckon Ted will pick Luke Mcalister because he can kick and will fit easily into the All Black game pattern.
zhenry
Guest
Sorry put this in wrong place, should be here…’Given our history of gagging in sight of the WC goal line’… Look…They have a very good chance more than any other team in my opinion. Let’s face it two AB WCs were accompanied by very weird circumstances (well documented) and the others were aligned to AB politics and NZRU coaching decisions. But you have highlighted another important factor. I find it so disappointing that NZers are often negative; its not difficult to flick the switch and monitor yourself into taking a positive stance. Its also something NZers can learn from AUs. I don’t know what the stats. are on tries scored in WCs but I would be surprised if the ABs are behind other teams on that one. It seems tries are hard to come by for any team at WCs. NZers don’t print their own money or own their media; madness and a symptom of the negativity; no doubt connected to the attitudes of the early settlers; extremely narrow minded ultra conservative business community; cant see the end of their noses, throughout NZ history have arrogantly controlled and manipulated the majority. I know that is similar to many countries but it is more stark in NZ. There has only been the odd brief hiatus.
zhenry
Guest
...'Given our history of gagging in sight of the WC goal line'... Look…They have a very good chance more than any other team in my opinion. Let’s face it two AB WCs were accompanied by very weird circumstances (well documented) and the others were aligned to AB politics and NZRU coaching decisions. But you have highlighted another important factor. I find it so disappointing that NZers are often negative; its not difficult to flick the switch and monitor yourself into taking a positive stance. Its also something NZers can learn from AUs. I don't know what the stats. are on tries scored in WCs but I would be surprised if the ABs are behind other teams on that one. It seems tries are hard to come by for any team at WCs. NZers don’t print their own money or own their media; madness and a symptom of the negativity; no doubt connected to the attitudes of the early settlers; extremely narrow minded ultra conservative business community; cant see the end of their noses, throughout NZ history have arrogantly controlled and manipulated the majority. I know that is similar to many countries but it is more stark in NZ. There has only been the odd brief hiatus.
RebFan
Guest
Yep, Richard Kingi.
AllyH
Guest
The NZRFU you should be moving heaven and earth to get Nick Evans to sign a short term contract with a NZ club so they can pick him for the world cup. He is easily in the top 3 FH in the world
mjpt
Guest
Had the chance to run slade, fruean, sbw (v Oz) all last year on the tour north and hong kong. Mgmt didn't and they blew it big time. 6 months have since past and we are no further along, yet another example of poor management and forward thinking. I was at the HK game and Donald should be jettisoned immediately, not good at test level, did not need HK to confirm what we all already knew.. Cruden average, the strike on him is size and DONALD of all people keeps running over him when they play one another ( check footage of last 2 games well v waikato, 5 metres out Donald runs straight at him 100kg v 83kg-one result) poor kicker as well. Slade should have been given the run but mgmt blew it, this is a time sensitive business..he should have had some repetitions by now. Brett-no way, anyone who is anyone KNOWS he cannot defend. Blues have been protected by a soft draw in s15. Big problem with the conferencing system look at last week best oz team in Qld lose to worst nz side Canes. The best do not play best til end of comp. Mcallister by default as he is last one standing with Weepu to slot in when needed. It's only a three week comp-5 if we get it right, fixating on back ups for a hypothetical blows a lot of time .....which we do not have...
mjpt
Guest
selectors blew it last year on the tour to the north. Prime opportunity to test new recruits like Slade and SBW and Fruean against teams like Oz in HK. what has happened??-6 months hav past and still they have not been tested against DECENT opposition at test level. Donald got taken but did we really need another disaster from him to confirm what we already know??? Shocking management and lets get real about this. The chickens have come home to roost and we are no further along-unless they DO take Donald, then I will short sell the ABs winning the cup. Cruden good, but not great- Donald outplays him every time they get together as Duck gets the ball flat hits it hard, goes one on one v Cruden-100kg v 83kg, one result. Check the footage, Donald has scored directly over Cruden 2 times, the last 2 times waikato played wellington. No answer here folks, Mcallister at a stretch as he is the last one standing. The killer will be if NZRU subvert policy and bring Evans back. Then they will look like the biggest hypocrites of all time- 10million dollar loss along with a change in policy to suit pressing needs-very bad form, but from a mgmt perspective, when has it been good??? look at the track record of pre determined "appointees" at u20 level like Cruden and Raindell-disastrous. reason is simple-the union have the outcome pre determined and then make all factors in the process fit to meet that outcome. One thing though-what if the guy is a dud?? the record is clear - and poor....hedge betting and accountability a big word not understood...
Winston
Guest
Yeah its got to be Mcalister. It would be good to see him at 10 for the blues for the rest of the season.
Muzza
Guest
Donald is a big game choker. AB's and S14 finals. Given our history of gagging in sight of the WC goal line I reckon McAlister has this in the bag. Proven in the past and he kicks better than anyone for points. Still, I hoped Slade would have his chance but looks unlikely. Yes, watch out for Barratt and probably another youngun we haven't seen just yet.
Fog
Guest
And played extremely well
ohtani's jacket
Guest
I was only joking, but it would be pretty amusing if Donald ran through the Reds.
Denby
Guest
Excellent! In that case I am putting my hand up for the role of Carters backup.
Denby
Guest
I generally agree with allot of what has been said against johnny-boy but seriously ohtani's jacket, if you think Donald is going to carve the Reds you are either delusional or on heavy medication. The Chiefs may win, but I doubt huffy Donald will be a key man.
zhenry
Guest
Used to be very encouraged by Donald but his AB performances and Hong Kong game especially (very disappointed in his self assessment of performance in that game) rule him completely out for me. Also disappointed that coach Lam will not run McAlister at 1st five for Blues (sometimes gets short stints later in game), regardless he seems to be the best bet at moment. Great talent form the U20s in the system but not yet matured. Field kicking is vital and Slade has that as well, apparently still not out of it as far as Henry is concerned. Hope he recovers from the Lipman caused injury (on purpose in my opinion), you could argue that Slade should position himself better for tackles however the consequences of that tackle were hard to avoid. Lipman was not cited, the AU commentary covered it over and the NZ (paid by Fairfax) journalists went quiet. An English journalist living in NZ wrote the only article highlighting the incident. Johnny–boy you are typical of many AUs attitude towards NZers, pathetic, grow up.
Riccus
Guest
I believe McAliistair is the obvious choice at the moment - good kicker and has been doing most of the on-field organising for the Blues as far as I can see. Weepu is another option as we know he can kick but would only be used if injury struck DC during a game, leaving McAl to give DC a rest (say against Japan?). I agree that the only way we will see Cruden is as a half-back; he is perfect for the role, but just too small for anywhere else in an AB lineup. And Please...NOT Donald.
Mungehead
Guest
As far as the RWC goes, here are my thoughts: People here must be talking about a different Slade because the Slade I've seen hasn't shone this year at all. Give him another year or three. You won't see him in this year's cup squad. Cruden will never get another shot at first five. When he lined up that first conversion from the sideline against the Blues I told all and sundry that he wouldn't reach the crossbar and sure enough he didn't. He doesn't have the distance to be the AB kicker, so as good a kicker as he may be from close range, we do not want him as our first five. Having said that, I still think he would have a decent chance of making the ABs within a couple of years if he would only target halfback, but I've given up holding my breath for that. Brett has been the backup of the backup for as long as I can remember. He's had plenty of development to shine, and he's not a bad player, but he never advanced as much as he needed to to be a genuine contender. I don't think he'll ever get good enough to make the ABs, but even if it were to happen some day, he's not going to be picked this year on the hope that he'll suddenly be good enough around RWC time. Not when he never has been. So those three are completely out in my books. As for the others... Evans needed to come back last year if he wanted to prepare for it. He didn't. He's out. Weepu is in, but only in an emergency if Carter's real backup became unavailable. He's a halfback who can play first five in a pinch, not the other way around. He's not going to be groomed for the position. That leaves only (I don't really need to mention others like Delany do I?) Donald or McAlister. Both of them have their faults, but either is more suited than any of the others I've mentioned. I thought Donald, despite honkers, was the shoo-in for the position, but McAlister has managed to play his way back into contention, not least with his goal kicking. I feel it's neck and neck between them. A lot of people dislike Donald on past performance as an AB, but then consider Toeava. http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/you_pays_your_money_and_you_takes_your_choice
abnutta
Roar Guru
It's gotta be McAlister. The best goal kicker going around in NZ at the moment and this is a RWC we are talking about. 30 tests experience. World Cup experience. Experience of running the cutter for the All Black backline. People seem to forget that McAlister made his test debut at first five eighths against the Lions in the 3rd test replacing an injured Carter.
Tui
Guest
Jonny that's four posts and counting...you are a serious dork -- Comment left via The Roar's iPhone app. Download The Roar's iPhone App in the App Store here.