We’re down to the wire in the inaugural Super Rugby, and with semi-final spots up for grabs or possibly pride in the office tipping competition, who has the edge in getting the kicks over?
Is there a difference in the form between the top kickers when it comes to penalties and conversion? Is there a difference between teams, between conferences?
I’ve been tracking the kicking stats for all the kickers in the competition, and before I get too far I have to mention difficulty as well as kicking form. I’m able to do this as I have a kicking database of ten years with the spots they are taken from, including conditions, ground etc.
Difficulty certainly comes into it. As a comparison, take Aaron Cruden (Hurricanes) and Elton Jantjies (Lions), both 100 per cent from their six attempts in Round 15.
Statistically, taking into account difficulty of each kick, Janties had the harder kicks as only seven per cent of the world’s professional rugby kickers could have repeated the same feat.
On the other hand, Cruden’s kicks were largely out in front so 23 per cent of the world’s kickers would have got those. While 100 per cent for both got the incorporating difficulty, Jantjies, was the better of the two kickers.
Difficulty can also play a part in the confidence of the kicker. Sias Ebersohn first penalty kick probability of success was 17 per cent, but he was asked to take it instead of the Cheetahs risking their poor lineout security. Arguably missing impacted on confidence and could have been behind his surprise second kick miss (which had a success probability of 95 per cent, due to its proximity to the posts).
Exploring form, I’ve eliminated anyone who wasn’t kicking regularly or cameos by setting a minimum of 10 place kick attempts for either penalties or conversions. Sorry Mike Harris (Reds) and Gary Van Aswegen (Stormers) who are 100 per cent from their eight and four attempts respectively.
Over a season you should get a good, possibly an even, distribution of kicks to analyse.
Despite a lot of forum criticism, Matt Giteau is leading the competition when it comes to penalties at 84 per cent or 30 from 34 attempts. Cruden is tied for the second spot with Peter Grant (Stormers) both on 84 per cent (16/19 and 31/37 respectively). By conference South Africa just leads with 74 per cent (193/262) over Australia 73 per cent (167/230) and New Zealand 68 per cent (173/256).
Following Giteau in the Australian conference is Danny Cipriani 77 per cent (20/26), James O’Connor 75 per cent (45/60), Quade Cooper 70 per cent (32/46) and Kurtley Beale 69 per cent (24/35).
Conversion form doesn’t necessarily follow for penalties, particularly the Australian conference. Beale is eighth overall leading the Australian conversion table with 73 per cent (19/26) ahead of Cooper 69 per cent (24/35), Giteau 64 per cent (16/25), O’Connor 64 per cent (7/11) and Cipriani 63 per cent (12/19).
All the Australian team’s kickers are behind the top five competition conversion kickers of Grant 91 per cent (10/11), Ebersohn 90 per cent (27/30), Sharks’ Patrick Lambie 85 per cent (22/26), Blues’ Luke McAlister 83 per cent (20/24) and Crusaders’ Dan Carter 82 per cent (18/22).
No surprise, then, that the South African conference lead conversions with 76 per cent (122/160) over New Zealand 68 per cent (109/161) and Australia 65 per cent (94/145).
However the stats don’t tell the whole story, O’Connor and Cooper might be off the pace but we know from Hong Kong last year, and against the Crusaders on Sunday, both are kickers who can deliver on the important kicks, despite what the stats were leading up to that kick.
So good form might mean a kicker gets tougher kicks, which then impacts on form. By my analysis, difficulty is game by game and form is over a competition.
There is an old saying, form is temporary, class is permanent.
makibaby
Guest
daniel carter (:
chloe
Roar Rookie
I think O'Connor would get most kicking duties but for longer distance kicks I think Kurtley Beale would take them. Then if needed Quade could kick the drop goals?
RuckinGoodStats
Roar Rookie
Cheers. Thinking of doing a artcile on Reds v Brumbies since they have been in the media saying they will target set pieces. Kinda like the Tale of the tape I did for the Reds V Crusaders? Think people will want to read that?
RuckinGoodStats
Roar Rookie
Agree with the intpreation of tackles and lineouts. Some people say a throw not straight is a win to the defending team. As long at you put up the definations, which I do, then people understand the how you get the numbers. This year I have been able to do what you suggest. I have a chart that shows each kick and is intersected with the possession and territory of the home team by 30 second intervals. (This forum isn't about promotion, but if you think about it you might find where these are on the web). So it easy to see the kick outcome, cross reference with the prob of success and do how you suggest. Not sure if there are 30 tests where a kicker has been faced with that situation. That would be 6 years where every game fell into that situation, or two Super15 years. On Giteau as I get a feel for a kicker. I don't have enough of this career kicks as I only started keeping these type of stats this Super15. From my feel and watching a lot of this other kick on youtube, he misses the easy ones and gets the hard one. The tradtional side for him, is actually the other side of the field. But this is my feel, I haven't sat down and looked as enough of his kicks cross reference with probability to quantify it. Hope this helps.
RuckinGoodStats
Roar Rookie
Cheers. I actually do them myself mostly live, but a couple of games the tape. Not sure how to do week17 in Super15, 5 games back to back with no breaks make me gah-gah. If you think about it, you might just find where on the web the output actually is that you can look for yourself, without using this as a place of promotion.
LeftArmSpinner
Roar Guru
RGS, where did you get your data from??? Great stuff.
thurl
Guest
Well, I suppose that when all the skillful players from each side have cancelled each out it comes down to who has the best kicker
B-Rock
Roar Guru
Interesting stuff RuckinGoodStats, looks like a valuable data set you have there. IMO rugby has very little genuine statistical analysis - we only get basic data collection like tackles made/missed, lineouts won - these are open to complete misinterpretation - Statistical analysis can be very valuable to the debates on the roar and should be more widely used You talk to pressure kicks towards the end of the article, can you filter on kicks within the last 10mins and point differential within +/- 10? Can you also compare test vs. super rugby for those kickers with more than 30 test kicks?... As you can probably tell, Im interested in the Gits stats - would be interesting to see if general fan perception is backed up by fact or not. Its interesting how some kickers step up and make difficult kicks in pressure situations while others wilt.
Big Time
Guest
Don't you find it a little sad that a sport that promotes itself as having the most skilful players, is so reliant on who has the best kicker. Your story says it all, ultimately more often then not, the team with the most accurate kicker will win the games. World Cups have been won on the back of kickers, WOW!!!!
Rusty
Roar Guru
Sweet stats and analysis there mate. I know it takes quite a bit to maintain these sort of things so good on you for providing and insight into this facet of the game
RuckinGoodStats
Roar Rookie
Good question and likely to get a few supporters commenting on the other two kickers should be given the kicking tee. Given the Cup tends to come down to penalties to get to the final, assuming there are not many tries, then O'Connor gets the nod. He is however been given longer penalties to get just recently. He is also having neck problems that will influence his kicking. In the final and if it comes down to drop goals O'Connor hasn't attempted one all Super 15 and Cooper is 3 from 6 attempts (FYI if Genia is the halfback he is 0 from 2 droppies). Solution put all three in the backline and whoever is doing well leading up to it, or if the circumstances, chnage them around. Yes a little bit of fence sitting there...
Freddie
Guest
Interesting Stats. From this information who should be the Wallaby kicker come the World Cup assuming Cooper,Beale and O'Connor are all in the starting side.