The FIFA World Rankings have long drawn scorn from football fans far and wide. Criticisms have been wide-ranging, and there has never been an actual use or meaning behind the rankings – until now.
With the USA being as high as fourth at one point, the rankings have struggled for credibility.
» View up to date FIFA rankings
Criticisms have also been levelled at inequities between confederations, with UEFA teams being weighted at 1.0, while AFC at 0.85.
FIFA has announced that it will use the July 2011 rankings to seed all teams in all Confederations for the 2014 World Cup draw to be held in Brazil at the end of July.
This is of great benefit to nations with generous rankings, especially in a Confederation such as UEFA.
According to Football Rankings, which makes accurate predictions regarding rankings and seedings, Norway will be seeded in the top UEFA pot due to their high FIFA ranking.
Had Montenegro, welcomed to the FIFA family less than five years ago, beaten Bulgaria in their Euro 2012 qualifier in Podgorica last weekend, they too would have been seeded in the top pot with renowned powerhouses such as Spain, Italy and England.
Instead, Montenegro will have to settle for Pot 2 with France and Portugal.
FIFA rankings place heavy emphasis on recent qualifying results, and Montenegro, the nation of 700,000 challenging England for first in their Euro 2012 qualifying group, have shot up the FIFA rankings of late.
Some Asian nations will also benefit due to their generous rankings. The AFC in the past has put their previous World Cup qualifiers as top seeds, meaning that DPR Korea and Bahrain would have joined Australia, Japan and Korea Rep in Pot 1.
However, both North Korea and Bahrain have relatively low FIFA rankings. This means the fourth-ranked China will be seeded in the top pot despite having a relatively awful footballing history.
The other beneficiary would be Iran, who are also rewarded despite recent underachievement.
Hungary have recently struggled in all UEFA qualifiers, recently labouring to victories over the likes of Liechtenstein and Luxembourg to build FIFA ranking points, but it has worked in their favour.
They will earn a spot in Pot 3, ahead of the likes Scotland, Romania and Poland, all a pot below them but arguably better football teams.
The biggest injustice arguably will occur to Wales, whose FIFA ranking has plummeted below the likes of Faroe Islands (Pot 5), having not registered a win in a competitive match in almost six years.
As such, Wales will be placed in Pot 6 with the might of San Marino, Andorra and Kazakhstan.
So what does all of this mean for Australia?
Simply put, Australia can benefit greatly from winning competitive World Cup qualifiers, and beating UEFA teams in friendly matches.
According to the aforementioned rankings analysis, if the seeding process for the finals of Brazil 2014 were to be conducted today, Australia would be placed in Pot 1, along with Brazil, Spain, Netherlands, Germany, Japan, Portugal and England.
Clearly the recent Asian Cup success has a strong influence on the formula used, as will the upcoming Copa America, 2012 and 2013 African Cup of Nations, and the almost finished 2011 and 2013 Gold Cups.
If Australia were to win almost all their 2014 qualifiers, and tactfully choose beatable UEFA opposition for friendly games (due to their 1.0 Confederation point ratio) perhaps we will not fall out of that first pot.
The FIFA rankings are now of incredible importance, Australia now has the opportunity to climb even further and reap the benefits.
Matthew Skellett
Guest
Just on the new end-of-June world rankings , although we lost 2 places to be 22nd in the world spare a thought for New Zealand who have taken a 37 place demotion!! (trying not to gloat at this one ) :-)
Edgar
Guest
Yes, that's what I'm doing - except I'm starting from October 2009 - 4 years before the October 2013 ranking that could be used to seed the teams.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
the biggest 100 earners in World football: http://ffdu.net/ffdu/posts/analysis-of-the-top-100-earners-in-world-football/
The Cattery
Roar Guru
Edgar but there is still something I'm not getting. Are you saying NZ comes in at 12th just counting its last 7 or 8 games at that point? Ok, I think I'm starting to follow. You're saying that by the time 2014 comes along, only those results from June 2010 onwards will count, so you've simply started calculating from that point with a zero base, and then you're conducting various extrapolations over the next 4 years to speculate about possible rankings. Is that what you're doing? So NZ, at that early point, is advantaged by having played a lot more games than other countries, but once everyone else starts cranking up with business as usual, NZ will be back 100 spots in no time.
Edgar
Guest
Gotta go - I will reply on Monday to any further comments.
Edgar
Guest
Did you look at the day that article was posted? July 9, 2010. The updated version was posted on June 10, 2011. New Zealand's 12th place (in July 2010) was based on: "the WC playoff win against Bahrain + the win against Serbia + 3 draws at the World Cup and just two defeats." See my comment on the July 9, 2010 post. I just applied the FIFA ranking formula.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
Edgar What do you mean when you say that NZ was 12th in July 2010? I'm not doubting you, but clearly there's a piece of the jigsaw that I'm not quite getting yet. Where would we ever have seen NZ anywhere near 12th?
Edgar
Guest
I don't know why, but I can't reply to your latest comment. New Zealand were 12th on July 9th, 2010 - the World Cup wasn't yet over at that time. And I ran the numbers for Australia's October 2009 ranking - it could have been possible for Australia to be seeded.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
Ok, I've found the relevant page, but.... It still doesn't make a whole lot of sense. You've got New Zealand in 12th spot? And as a couple of posters point out, if you had a whole bunch of tin pot countries taking up valuable spots in the top 8, FIFA would drop it like a hot potato.
Edgar
Guest
My blog covers much more than the AFC qualifiers. Check the important info page - there's a link at the top of my blog - in red. You'll see there a link to a 2014 final tournament seeding.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
Edgar Let's be very clear about what we are talking about. Your blog appears to cover the pots for the AFC qualifiers for the 2014 WC, and obviously, Australia will make it to Pot 1 - that's hardly a revelation. But some appear to be extending this to mean that Australia has a chance of making it into pot 1 for the WC draw proper, i.e. being seeded in the top 8 for the 32 teams competing in Brazil in 2014. How could anyone jump to that sort of conclusion from a blog that's talking about the qualifiers??
Edgar
Guest
Actually last time around FIFA used only the October 2009 FIFA ranking. Thanks for the nice words George :)
Edgar
Guest
@Joe FC Good point about hosting the 2015 AC. I still think it's possible to be in the top 8 in October 2013. Difficult to achieve, but definitely possible.
Joe FC
Guest
The only way Australia would be seeded for the 2014 WC & thus go into pot 1 for the tournament draw is if we are ranked in the top 8 in the month prior to the draw. Nice to dream about but most unlikely. Also as hosts we don't play any qualifiers for the 2015 Asian Cup thus less opportunity to accumulate points.
georgemladenov
Roar Rookie
FIFA use a certain formula combining recent World Cup finals performances with FIFA Ranking to determine their WC pots. I just pointed out that according to Edgar of the Football Rankings blog, which is an invaluable and accurate resource at working all kinds of FIFA pots and rankings before they're announced, that if the Brazil 2014 pots were to be announced at this point in time, then Australia would be seeded. It's our job to hold on to that position, despite how unlikely it is that we do so.
Edgar
Guest
Yes, that's what I've said. That also depends on the way AFC will schedule the 2015 Asian Cup qualifiers - if you'll have many games before October 2013, then you'd have a pretty good chance.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
Edgar then you are seeing something that I can't see. Get into the first pot on the basis of winning "most" of your qualifiers in the AFC qualifiers??
The Cattery
Roar Guru
I've always referred to the Socceroos and all NTs as us.
Edgar
Guest
Actually, it's pretty clear to me :) And Australia do have a chance to be seeded for the 2014 final tournament draw - if they win most of their qualifiers and also win friendlies against top ranked opposition.
Fussball ist unser leben
Roar Guru
100% agree with you ... unbelievable heartache over a 28 year period following the National Team makes me take it one game at a time. Actually, after the events of 29 November 1997 ... I've learnt to take it one minute at a time! PS: Nice to read you refer to the National Team as "us" ... does this mean you are slowly coming back home? I guess this is also a matter of "one minute at a time"? ;-)