The Roar's mid-season AFL report card

By Michael DiFabrizio / Expert

James Kelly of Geelong tackles Chris Judd of Carlton during the AFL Round 09 match between the Carlton Blues and the Geelong Cats at Etihad Stadium, Melbourne. Slattery Images

After 12 rounds we are now officially at the half-way mark of the 2011 home and away season, so now’s the perfect time to assess which clubs are at the top of the class, and which clubs have plenty of homework to do.

Geelong (1st)

Some say the Cats are lucky. Others have praised their resilience. Bottom line, though, is that you don’t go 11 games into the season undefeated unless you’re a serious threat. Chris Scott has injected new life into the club and gotten more out of a few of the older players.

Key forwards were the problem area, with the likes of Cam Mooney, Tom Hawkins and, at times, James Podsiadly struggling to fire early on. But in the last few weeks Nathan Vardy has emerged. And Brad Ottens kicked his first bag in forever. And Podsiadly had a six-goal first half against Hawthorn.

So just when you thought you could pinpoint this team’s weakness, the first-year coach who can do no wrong has seemingly found the answer. Things are definitely looking good at the Cattery. Only question is whether the ageing list will seem as fresh two months from now.

Grade: A. Predicted finish (after 22 rounds): 1st.

Collingwood (2nd)

On the surface the Pies are an even better team than the one that went all the way last year. Andrew Krakouer’s been a find, Leon Davis has reinvented himself down back, Scott Pendlebury may’ve lifted his game even higher, Dale Thomas definitely has and the biggest criticism of the side twelve months ago, inaccurate kicking, is now no longer a problem at all.

But it’s not all good news. While Chris Tarrant has covered the loss of Nathan Brown, the injury front does worry. Captain Nick Maxwell has been on the sidelines, Dane Swan’s been below-par enough to be sent back to Arizona and Alan Didak – the Pies’ leading goal kicker last year – isn’t looking the player he used to be.

However, even in games where large chunks of the premiership team have been missing the Pies have looked like the same dominant side. They have an aura of invincibility about them that suggests they’ll be hard to stop later on in the year.

Grade: B+. Predicted finish: 2nd.

Carlton (3rd)

The Blues are in a lot of good books at the moment. They’ve been hyped up as genuine premiership contenders. There’s a consensus they’re a better shot at it than Hawthorn. Only problem? Well, the Blues have beaten a grand total of one top eight team so far this season. A season we’re half-way through.

To be fair, you can understand where the optimism is stemming from. Their back line was the major weakness prior to this year – they conceded the second-most points of top eight sides last season – but the answers to this problem have come think and fast.

In the key defender stakes, Michael Jamison has surprisingly elevated himself among the league’s best. Of the smaller types, the transition of Chris Yarran from forward to defender has paid dividends and so too has the addition of Jeremy Laidler. Throw in Marc Murphy joining Chris Judd as an elite midfielder and, well, it’s tempting to overlook the lack of results against top opposition.

Grade: B. Predicted finish: 3rd.

Hawthorn (4th)

My Roar colleague Michael Filosi was right to point out this week that “on their day, the Hawks are capable of beating anyone”. They’ve looked scintillating at times this season, with a game plan that looks good enough to win a flag. They haven’t always sustained that for four quarters, however.

The good news: the guns are firing (especially Buddy), Josh Gibson’s having a big year (which was needed), some younger types have slotted in well (think Savage, Shiels, Suckling), only three losses to their name (and two of them narrow ones to the Cats). The bad news: the season-ending injuries (Stephen Gilham and Ben Stratton were bad enough, Jarryd Roughead is just horrible).

In the sense that people are rating the Blues higher than them, the Hawks can be seen as flying under the radar. Whether they can remain a threat despite injuries, though, is the worry.

Grade: B+. Predicted finish: 4th.

Sydney (5th)

The Swans keep refusing to drop off. Defying expectations, the veterans of the club – save for the unlucky Daniel Bradshaw – continue to impress. Young Sam Reid has looked ultra promising. The important stat is that the Swans have only lost three games (to Geelong, Carlton and Hawthorn, no less). There’s plenty of life in this side yet.

Grade: B. Predicted finish: 6th.

West Coast (6th)

Echoing the season their West Australian rivals Fremantle had last year, the Eagles are the surprise packets of 2011. Fuelled by the sudden return to prominence of Dean Cox and Daniel Kerr, as well as the continued development of younger players, they’ve made a mockery of pre-season suggestions John Worsfold would be under pressure right about now.

Grade: A. Predicted finish: 5th.

Fremantle (7th)

Even going into Round 1, Freo’s injury list looked bad. It’s even worse now, with the latest addition to the casualty ward being David Mundy sidelined for six to eight weeks. The club’s most important player Aaron Sandilands is still two to three weeks away. To finish top eight after such an injury-riddled year would be highly commendable.

Grade: C. Predicted finish: 8th.

Essendon (8th)

James Hird could not have scripted a better start to his coaching career – a NAB Cup final, some impressive early performances – but the bubble has now burst. An injury to Jobe Watson was arguably the instigator. Now the question is whether they can get things back on track in time to make the finals. Two positives: Dyson Heppell and Stewart Crameri.

Grade: C+. Predicted finish: 9th.

St Kilda (9th)

If you were giving the Saints a grade one month ago, it would have undoubtedly been an F. But a corner has at least been turned. How big that corner is remains to be seen. Lenny Hayes’ injury was a cruel blow to any hopes of a serious turnaround, it must be noted. Finals are still a healthy proposition. A flag, seemingly, is not.

Grade: D. Predicted finish: 7th.

Melbourne (10th)

What to make of the Dees? Up and about one week, poor the next week. Then, after a stern whack in the media, all of the sudden they’re back up again. When this process repeats itself for half a season, it gets tiresome. Colin Sylvia’s been great, but it’s obvious the days of a dominant forward line spearheaded by Jack Watts and Liam Jurrah are still some time away. If they find some consistency, watch out. If it’s more of the same, feel free to tune out.

Grade: C. Predicted finish: 11th.

Richmond (11th)

The Tigers are a hard team not to like this season, leaving aside the last month or so. Dustin Martin has surprised a few by backing up his debut season with an even better second season. The smaller types Jake King and Robin Nahas have had impressive seasons. The problem comes when they travel interstate and, unfortunately, there’s still a bit of that to come in the second half of the year.

Grade: C+. Predicted finish: 10th.

North Melbourne (12th)

Strange sort of season for the Roos. Started slowly, but lately the individual brilliance of Andrew Swallow and the fact I’m now able to type “Daniel Wells” and “living up to his potential” in the same sentence has kinda changed all that. Two wins in a row has generated some optimism, naturally, but with those wins coming against Adelaide (at home) and Gold Coast, I’m holding back.

Grade: D+. Predicted finish: 13th.

Western Bulldogs (13th)

If the Western Bulldogs’ sole goal for 2011 was to embarrass those who dared tip them to win the flag, they would be graded A+. (Yes, I was one of them.) Unfortunately, the two bookends those tipsters were relying on – Brian Lake at one end, Barry Hall at the other – have not been themselves and spent a fair bit of time on the sidelines. Lake in particular has had his attitude when it comes to injuries questioned. Adam Cooney has also had injury problems. Take these three out of the line-up, and evidently the Dogs aren’t quite what you thought they were.

Grade: F. Predicted finish: 12th.

Adelaide (14th)

Major, major disappointments. Pre-season the Crows had a list brimming with players that could significantly lift their output, but it just hasn’t happened. Hard not to like the look of Shaun McKernan, however the negatives (players not stepping up, inconsistency, long-term injuries) far outweigh the positives here. Makes for an interesting match-up for Friday Night Football tonight.

Grade: D. Predicted finish: 15th.

Brisbane Lions (15th)

Michael Voss still has a long way to go to save his career, but at least the Lions showed some signs of life towards the end of last month before running into some quality opposition in Sydney and Carlton. Matthew Leuenberger has looked good and youngsters Jack Redden and Tom Rockliff continue to improve.

Grade: D+. Predicted finish: 14th.

Port Adelaide (16th)

Demoralising year for the Port Adelaide Football Club, both on and off the field. Only two wins in the first half of the year, and you suspect that’s the most they can aim for in the second half too. Simply haven’t been competitive on too many occasions.

Grade: F. Predicted finish: 17th.

Gold Coast Suns (17th)

Everyone’s second team this year. Pulled off a couple of upsets, but shown plenty in the losing games as well. There are a number of youngsters you could highlight, but one thing that simply must said in a summary of the Suns’ season is Zac Smith looks absolutely sensational for someone in only his fifth season of Australian football. Will probably sneak in a couple more wins before the season’s out.

Grade: B. Predicted finish: 16th.

The Crowd Says:

2011-06-20T02:20:21+00:00

Macca

Guest


My apologies Michael, I could of sworn you tipped them to finish 9th, must of been thinking of someone else

2011-06-20T02:19:21+00:00

Macca

Guest


they might not hve been tired RedB but they are going to struggle to make the finals after that loss

2011-06-19T08:22:19+00:00

Football Fan

Guest


*Please ignore previous post, except for the last sentence* hehehe ;)

2011-06-19T06:37:52+00:00

brendan

Guest


Uncle Bob start pumping Carlton up after they win there first final.Yes there quick but finals experience could be a big factor.I support Geelong but consider Collingwood are the rightful flag favourites.If it is a Collingwood / Carlton GF I hope the blueboys win because the last time Collingwood beat you was 1910 and that statistic makes me laugh.

2011-06-19T06:17:21+00:00

brendan

Guest


Geelong haven't been lucky to win those close games the opposition hasnt been good enough to clinch it.Obviously i support Geelong but look at how much time was left after Pendleburys shot and Warnocks shot and if Carlton or Collingwood were good enough they would have won.In the first game against Stkilda we scored one goal in 2 and half quarters so to win under those circumstances suggests the saints aren't much.Last week Hawthorn were 17 pts up at 3 qtr time didnt score in the last score and say Geelong were lucky because Buddy wasnt paid a free , once again if you are good enough you win it.Geelong may have peaked too early who knows but in my opinion they deserve credit for the wins they have had not scepticism that they have been lucky.

2011-06-17T17:31:07+00:00

amazonfan

Roar Guru


"This will be a season to savour for the long suffering Bluebaggers." Long suffering? Please. You've won six flags in the past forty years, with your most recent one just 16 years ago. You don't know the meaning of the term 'long suffering.' As far as I'm concerned, the only Victorian-based club fans which can claim to be long suffering are those of St Kilda, the Bulldogs, Melbourn, and to a far lesser extent of Richmond. Carlton/Essendon/Hawthorn fans think that a decade out of the finals means that they are long suffering (Collingwood fans also refer to the years between their 14th and 15th flags as a 'drought'). It doesn't. Melbourne didn't make the finals for 22 years from 1965-1986 and hasn't claimed a flag in 46 (soon to be 47) years. The Bulldogs has claimed just one flag, back in 1954, and has made only one GF since. St Kilda has claimed just the one flag in 1966, and are unlucky not to be the two-time reigning Premiers. Even Richmond, a club which infuriatingly overstates its plight (they conveniently don't bring up 1967-1980 when they won five flags), have made the finals just three times in the past 30 years. Geelong fans used to be long suffering until 2007, while South Melbourne/Sydney fans were long suffering until 2005. Fitzroy fans are still suffering. I can accept a lot of things when it comes to sport. But I will not accept fans of ultra-successful clubs claiming to be long suffering and expecting others to feel sorry for them, when they have no right to to claim it for themselves. Until you've failed to win a flag in 40 years, haven't made the finals in 20 years, or truly understand what it means to be unsuccessful over an extended period of time, you have absolutely no right to talk about being long suffering. BTW, I don't think Carlton has much chance of winning the flag. Their best is great, however Geelong, and especially Collingwood, have a level of depth which Carlton arguably lacks.

2011-06-17T10:33:06+00:00

Richard

Roar Guru


God, I hope you're wrong! You've just soured my day. ;)

2011-06-17T10:08:39+00:00

Uncle Bob

Guest


In summary there is three sides in the race. 1. Geelong 2. Collingwood 3. Carlton. The rest of the teams in the league are just a supporting act. It all depends on health of these 3 teams who will carry away the cup in the first weekend in October. For mine, I would say it'll be the Blues for their SWEET SEVENTEENTH. A record. It is going to be incredibly hard for the Pies to go back to back and Geelong look wobbly and are too slow for Carlton. This will be a season to savour for the long suffering Bluebaggers. This is like the 80s all over again, years of success ahead to look forward to. Lygon st. will be pumping!

2011-06-17T09:25:23+00:00


Swampy St. Kilda have an easier run home than Essendon but they might drop back further if they have any serious injuries. IMO Richmond's defense is too soft and their games are shootouts. Geelong, St. Kilda and Collingwood have proven over the last few years that you need a decent defense to play in the finals.

2011-06-17T09:18:43+00:00


Pretty fair assessment Redb, I have to agree. I would disagree 100% with Macca on the Bombers list except I can't find a reason why they went so well for the first half a dozen games and then fell apart. I think it will be a Collingwood/Geelong Grand Final with Hawthorn and Carlton filling the other spots. I have already taken the odds about Collingwood as they will only get shorter. Most improved team are the Eagles and I hope they continue to perform.

2011-06-17T07:17:57+00:00

Liam Quinn

Roar Pro


I actually think he's pretty spot on with the Blues, to give them an A so far would be a bit premature. There's no doubt that Carlton have played above expectations so far this year, but as said, they haven't quite taken the next step and taken a big scalp. If they could've knocked off Collingwood or Geelong, then they would definitely be up there, but at the moment they're still a step off the pace. Also, as much as they've improved, they were a finals side before this year. So it's not as significant an improvement as West Coast (who received an A) coming from the league's doldrums. B seems to be one the money.

AUTHOR

2011-06-17T07:15:41+00:00

Michael DiFabrizio

Expert


Mario, cheers for the comment. Don't get me wrong, I do like the Blues. As I said in an earlier comment, I've rated them as a top four chance all year. But I had to rate the Hawks higher. One team has beaten one top eight side. The other has beaten three. It was that simple. (Before you point out Carlton's losses to Geelong and Collingwood, Hawthorn have lost to Geelong twice in close contests. You can play that card with both teams.) For what it's worth though, I reckon Carlton will probably have the better second half of the year. The Hawks' season-ending injuries are a worry while the Blues are practically getting back a player whose had a season-ending injury (Kreuzer). As for North, I'll be willing to change my mind if they put in a good performance against the Bombers this weekend. Based on performances so far, as I say in the article, I'm holding back.

AUTHOR

2011-06-17T07:01:24+00:00

Michael DiFabrizio

Expert


"Still under rating the blues Michael after tipping them to miss the eight." Macca, this isn't true. Perhaps you've got me confused with someone else? Your welcome to read my season preview for the Blues to know how I rated them pre-season: http://www.michaeldifabrizio.com/post/3934652389/carlton-2011-afl-season-preview I tipped them to finish 4th-6th, higher than a lot of the footy media. In the predicted ladder I did for The Roar I had them sixth. Have rated them as a top four chance all year.

2011-06-17T06:02:16+00:00

Macca

Guest


Agree on both point's Mario - especially when you consider North had 2 trips to the West plus Collingwood in the first 3 games. I wouldn't say they are my favourites to make the 8 but they are a definite chance.

2011-06-17T05:57:46+00:00

Mario

Guest


Michael DiFabrizio must not like the Blues, because he gave Hawthorn a higher rating. Carlton has exceeded a lot of people's expectations this season and look prime to make the top 4. Their depth in their midfield is great and there is even competition for spots in the forward line. Do Carlton need to win a flag before he can give them an A rating for their great improvement this season. Remember Ratten was under intense pressure to do well at the start of the season. I also think he was a little harsh on North Melbourne. They have lost a couple of games which they should have won if their goal kicking was more accurate. They are my favourites to make the top 8 because of a favourable draw from now on in.

2011-06-17T05:01:43+00:00

Macca

Guest


Just had a look at your draw and you were right it is tough. If you lose tomorrow there would only be the Adelaide & Port plus maybe the bulldogs you could be really confiednt about. even if you win tomorrow you'll still need to pinch at least 2 other games. A good percentage does help though.

2011-06-17T04:27:48+00:00

Macca

Guest


Coming back from Perth is a concern though, and the Kanga's are playing good footy at the moment plus they will get McIntosh back in a week or 2 so they'll be pushing for your spot as well as the Saints and Richmond. You should be hoping that Freo's injury count starts taking a toll.

2011-06-17T04:10:49+00:00

Nathan

Guest


They are very much the bogan poor cousins of the two WA teams, but they've got starch and loyalty, I'll give them that. I've never been able to figure out what really has been the cause of their persistent lack of success but you do have to feel for them and admire the determination of their supporters, don't you?

2011-06-17T04:03:24+00:00

Redb

Roar Guru


Freo fans are brilliant IMO.

2011-06-17T04:02:41+00:00

Redb

Roar Guru


No I think we are good enough this year to make the 8. You wont see a tired Essendon tommorrow trust me.

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