With round 14 popping up more than a few surprises, there were a number of key points that became evident from the big upset (West Coast), the almost big-upset (Collingwood), and those woeful Bombers.
West Coast will make the top four
The stunning turnaround in form of the West Coast Eagles has been the story of the 2011 season.
From wooden spooner last year, the Eagles are all but assured of finishing in the top four this season.
Yesterday’s win over the highly fancied Blues in Melbourne showed that the Eagles can beat a very good opponent away from home, and the confidence of the Eagles playing group will be sky-high following their impressive win.
The Eagles play only one side in the top six teams prior to the finals, and this soft run will ensure the Eagles go from cellar dweller to top four team in the space of twelve months, an amazing turnaround.
Geelong should be premiership favourites
Collingwood may still be the official favourite with the betting agencies, but based on their respective performances in round 14, Geelong are the side most likely to win the 2011 AFL premiership.
The Cats completely outclassed a disappointing Adelaide side on Sunday, and have not missed a beat this season despite losing Brownlow medallist Gary Ablett and dual premiership coach Mark Thompson at the end of last season.
In contrast to the Cats, the Magpies were patchy in their win over the Sydney Swans at ANZ Stadium on Saturday night. At times this year the Magpies have appeared to flirt with their form, and this will be of concern to coach Mick Malthouse.
The Magpies have shown that they can blow a side off the park, as demonstrated by their eleven goal final quarter against the Crows earlier this year, but there have also been periods during matches when the Magpies have taken the foot of the pedal and allowed teams to outscore and outplay them.
On the other hand, Geelong has put in more even performances over the course of this year and deserves to be premiership favourite.
We are all too quick to judge young players
Melbourne’s Jack Watts was heavily criticised in his first two seasons in the AFL, and the burden of being the number one pick in the 2008 AFL Draft must have weighed heavily on his young shoulders.
There were plenty of observers who felt that the number two selection, Nic Naitanui, was the far superior player based on their first two seasons in the AFL, and no doubt the incessant criticism and comparisons were difficult for Watts to come to terms with.
This year Watts has started to find his feet at AFL level, and his performance against Richmond on Saturday further demonstrated why he was a worthy first selection in the draft.
Watts kicked three goals for the Demons and had more contested marks than any other player on the ground, and with time will continue to blossom into a very good player.
Hopefully the next time a young key position player takes a few seasons to develop we are more patient in recognising that not all players develop at the same rate.
Essendon will finish well outside the top eight
The Bombers were woeful in losing to a severely undermanned Hawthorn side on Friday night, and have now lost five matches in a row.
Favourite son James Hird must now find a way to rally his deflated playing group and keep the faith of a supporter base which was buoyed by a grand final appearance in the NAB Cup and early wins to start the season.
Essendon have a very difficult run home, and I predict that the Bombers will win only two more matches this season (against the Bulldogs in round 21 and Port Adelaide in round 23).
If my prediction proves correct, the Bombers will finish with just seven wins for the season, which will match their performance last season under ex-coach Matthew Knights.
Follow Michael on Twitter @michaelfilosi
amazonfan
Roar Guru
I'll leave Red to speak specifically on Hird, however it is astonishing how closely Hird's career has followed that of Voss; from making their debuts at a similar time, to enjoying early success (and winning the Brownlow in the same year), to being appointed captains at the same time, to being injured for a couple of years, to enjoying a second lease of life and enjoying massive individual and team success late in their careers, to being inducted into the Hall of Fame at the same time, to coaching their clubs. Incredible. :D
BigAl
Guest
Honestly though Red - what was James Hird's coaching pedigree before he took on this job ? It takes more to be a good coach than just having been a club playing legend - ask Michael Voss. Those two guy's careers are so mirrored.
amazonfan
Roar Guru
I had forgotten about QB. That's true, anyway, other than that, I don't think they've handled him too badly. Agree with you about Watts and Hurley being the two new future power forwards. :D
Redb
Roar Guru
yeah they did. Ignored the criticism and allowed him to build up his body while coaching him to use aggression. Watts & Hurley will be the two new future power fowards in the AFL very soon. i think what Kate weas alluding to was the first game on QB in 2009 where he was too raw and The Dees were trying to rebuild crowds by promoting their number one draft pick. Watts is no dill though, the slings & arrows from players and fans easier to deflect when you have a brain.
Macca
Guest
Amazon - Judd has had quiet games this year and the Blues have still won, it wasn't so much him being quiet that cost them, the Blues defence missed Duigan and Laidler and lost Jamison early, their midfield was missing Robinson (who has been in great form) and Curnow and the missed Waite from the forward line. That's 5 out of their best 22 before the game and their best defender gone early that will stretch anyone's depth and leaves no room for poor games from Judd, Kreuzer and Walker (their leading goal kicker).
amazonfan
Roar Guru
Exactly. :D
Football Fan
Guest
yeah, I thought the Dees have actually handled Watts really well!
amazonfan
Roar Guru
Which is exactly why I question whether Carlton has truly arrived. No team can win a flag if they are dependent on one player, and it appears that Carlton is still overly reliant on Judd. They just don't have enough depth.
amazonfan
Roar Guru
Why do you say that Melbourne set Watts up to fail?
brendan
Guest
Macca that loss will do wonders for Carlton.The players are now forced to step up and show they belong in the top four or if they drop off the club can revitalise the list for coming seasons irregardless of this years result.You quite correctly have stated Carlton will be better next year on the back of Kruezer and Warnock now the finge players have to show there mettle to join them.One game either way doesnt define yr season unless it is the Gf.
KR
Guest
as did nic nat. people stupidly wanted something immediately from both. west coast were criticised for letting local boy and ready to play rich go to brisbane and win the rising star. freo fans took delight in hill's instant impact. NOW we see why you should never jump the gun. rhys palmer is also a prime example of why not to jump the gun the other way around.
KR
Guest
voss got dealt a weak team, as did hird. both teams then got hit with key injuries. bucks will inherit the best team in the league of the last 2 seasons.
KR
Guest
my cautious advice (and as a west coast fan) too. we've got the 2 teams i think will place 7th & 8th (st kilda & melbourne) on their turf, which, even with our win over carlton in melbourne, can't be penciled in. in fact, every game is crucial for them now, and they'll give more than carlton, and won't have any air of expectation since they know the eagles are a real team this year. i can't see us winning both, not for lack of trying but only due to their desperation. we do have a nice draw to finish, and should account for essendon, richmond, adelaide, brisbane, freo. the dogs will be a wildcard - i don't think they'll challenge but they'll be revved up to save face from the earlier thrashing. a win over geelong makes us a legit top 4 chance, but until then 5th is where we belong.
amazonfan
Roar Guru
That sounds reasonable. It would certainly be a mistake to turn on him, the way some people have been turning on Matthew Primus.
Kate White
Roar Rookie
Jack Watts got a raw deal from the media straight out of the blocks, and has had to work very hard to win any respect. In truth the Demons - inadvertently or no - set the kid up to fail and should have managed the situation far better. Hopefully some lessons learned.
Daniels
Guest
“West Coast will make the top four” Big call mate, they are half a game outside still, and still needs Carlton to lose again to get in, and it would more likely need 2 losses before its a chance. However i will consider them a chalenger for 3rd or 4th along with Carlton and Hawthorn. Anyway you put it the general concensis is that there will be no movement in the top 4 from this point “Geelong should be premiership favourites” I think that is a moot point, as soon as they beat collingwood, people have been jumping all over their bandwagon. Geelong collingwood granny would be the most likley outcome for a long time. “We are all too quick to judge young players” Of course we do. There are a lot of players who go as number 1 pick, however need to develop their skills to compete in senior footy. Jack Watts was one of these, as was Luke Hodge. Itr is simply a quirk that players at 2nd or 3rd those years have been more mature, and in a few years, we willl see the class that seperates them “Essendon will finish well outside the top eight” I have long vouched that Essendon where wrong picking Hird, and it looks like his career might be short, as has Voss and as i predict Buckleys will
Nathan
Guest
And two of those three matches will have teams coming hard for redemption after the savage beatings they took at Subiaco early in the year.
Brian
Guest
A bit early to call West Coast making the top 4. They still have St Kilda, Western & Melbourne all at Docklands, all potenital losses. Looks instead like a very close 3 horse race including Hawthorn for 2 places in the top 4.
Chaos
Guest
It takes time for forwards to be unleashed. However the media need thiings to write about so they compare players at different levels of thier development. At 17 you aren't expected to be at the peak of your career. Why would footy palyers be any different? Worsfold was an assistant at Carlton over 9 years ago? What insight could he have possibly got ffrom that? However David Teague is at WC and could have given a more of an insight as he was coach of the Carlton feeder club before hand. Both sides are very happy from the Judd/Kennedy trade. It was seriously a win-win. Only WC wasted the 20 pick on Tony Notte and Armfield whom Carlton picked up at 40 odd is still kicking around. Masten the pick three is still a borderline top 22 player at WC though he has been injured. You just have to hear Tim Lane and Robert Walls talk to see how highly they regard Josh Kennedy.
Nathan
Guest
Eff luck, send someone to get an autograph with him who has the flu and sneeze, make your own luck! =D