NBA 2011 free agency: Southwest Division

The Southwest Division has long been regarded as one of the strongest in the NBA, boasting five of the last 12 championships through San Antonio and most recently Dallas.

Last season four out of the five teams in the conference made the playoffs, with Houston three games out of eighth spot.

DALLAS

Free agents: JJ Barea, Caron Butler, Brian Cardinal, Tyson Chandler, DeShawn Stevenson, Peja Stojakovic (unrestricted).

The defending champions had the highest payroll in the NBA last year at $90 million, and with every possibility of a new, hard salary cap, this has to change.

Deal they should make: Mark Cuban has to try and convince the owners against a hard cap straight away next season. It’s the only way Cuban will be able to re-sign everybody and not have to cut payroll.

HOUSTON

Free agents: Goran Dragic (team option); Chuck Hayes and Yao Ming (unrestricted).

Houston has already traded Brad Miller and picks for Johnny Flynn and picks on Friday, so the situation for Goran Dragic looks kinda bleak. The big hole at Houston is centre, where the 6’7” Chuck Hayes has been holding down the fort in Yao Ming’s considerable absence. Yao may not be back in Houston, or maybe back at all due to his extensive foot injuries, so the Rockets are going to have to find a big man somewhere else.

Deal they should make: Luis Scola, Kyle Lowry and Hasheem Thabeet for Andrew Bynum and Matt Barnes. Johnny Flynn makes Lowry expendable, and with a three-year $20 million deal, he’s also attractive to any team that needs a point guard. The Lakers most certainly need a point guard.

The acquisition of Scold would allow them to play Gasol at centre and keep Odom, giving them more offense and a better distributor in Lowry. The Rockets get a franchise centre to play alongside draftee Patrick Patterson, and give Johnny Flynn the chance to prove why he was picked sixth in the 2009 draft.

MEMPHIS

Free agents: Marc Gasol, Hamed Haddadi, Sam Young (restricted); Shane Battier, Leon Powe (unrestricted).

Memphis made a huge splash in their two playoff series, with Zach Randolph emerging as a key crunch time playoff guy. What’s more, the Grizzlies it without franchise swingman Rudy Gay. A lot to like here, and some actions that can be taken to bring Memphis to, potentially, the conference finals or further.

Deal they should make: Throw the kitchen sink at Marc Gasol. He was the best centre in the West through two rounds of the playoffs this season, and he needs to stay in Memphis in order for the Grizzlies to be successful. There’s also been talk of the Grizzlies trading Rudy Gay.

Whilst this may seem a little early, and whilst Gay was playing out of his mind before his season-ending shoulder injury, Memphis still cannot assume that Gay will have this production for the next four years of his contract. If there are offers for Gay, then Memphis should listen. One trade that may help both ballclubs would be Rudy Gay for Galinari and a sign-and-trade for Wilson Chandler.

Denver have a trade exception that they can use to acquire Gay no matter what salaries go back in the deal, and this trade would give Memphis two small forward options instead of one, and improve their defence through Chandler. With Chandler and Gallo added to Memphis’ playoff squad, they would have handily beaten Oklahoma City, and given Dallas a run for their money as well.

NEW ORLEANS

Free agents: Marco Belinelli, Jason Smith (restricted); Marcus Banks, Aaron Gray, Willie Green, Carl Landry, DJ Mbenga (unrestricted), David West (early termination option).

Chris Paul is a free agent at season’s end. That is the only factor that matters to New Orleans right now. The spiritual and emotional leader of the Hornets almost single-handedly beat the Lakers in the playoffs, and will be entertaining offers from teams such as New York and Los Angeles when his contract runs out.

So, the Hornets have three options – do nothing, and risk Paul and David West being gone at season’s end; trade Paul now to get value for him; or try and go for a championship now. They already have a centre in Emeka Okafor, a third guard in Jarrett Jack, and a small forward/glue guy in Trevor Ariza. David West is out for the year, and may sign with another team if he gets a good offer.

Deal they should make: If West re-signs, then they should try and get Carl Landry for the year to fill in. If West does not sign, then they’ll have roughly $40 million on the books, freeing up just over $10 million, plus a couple of trade exceptions.

If the Hornets were to go after Jason Richardson with something like a three-year, $20 million deal, and Reggie Evans for two years, $8 million, then they would add two rotation players for around $10 million per, and still give themselves room to acquire a salary dump (say, Andray Blatche) with their $6 million trade exception.
If by January the Hornets are certain that Paul will not stay, then they have to make a godfather offer. Something like this:

Portland gets: Chris Paul, Jarrett Jack.
New Orleans gets: LaMarcus Aldridge, Raymond Felton, and Wesley Matthews.

Or this:

Golden State gets: Chris Paul, Jarrett Jack.
New Orleans gets: Stephen Curry, David Lee, and Dorell Wright.

SAN ANTONIO

Free agents: Steve Novak, Chris Quinn (unrestricted)

Hard to know what’s going to happen with the Spurs. Bundled out of the first round of the playoffs by an impressive Memphis, San Antonio now has a conundrum – their long-time franchise player and MVP is entering what could be the last year of his career, and their other All Star, Manu Ginobili, is 33.

Those two players will stay put, however don’t be surprised if their third perennial starter, point guard Tony Parker, is moved onto another team. Make no mistake, though – the Spurs are at the crossroads. This is either going to be the last year that they try and win a championship, or the year that they “blow it up” and rebuild.

Deal they should make: Tony Parker, Richard Jefferson and Antonio McDyess for Al Jefferson, Devin Harris and Paul Millsap. It’s well known that Utah wants a point guard to take their minds off the departure of Deron Williams. That means that they’re obviously not taken with Devin Harris, and considering Harris’ previous All Star season, under the right coach and in the right system, he could thrive.

Utah are clearly rebuilding through their young frontcourt of Enes Kanter and Derrick Favors, and with McDyess to mentor them, they can start a true rebuild with the more cap-friendly contracts of Richard Jefferson and McDyess rather than the cap-killer of Al Jefferson.

As for the Spurs, well, they get one more tilt at a title, with a starting lineup of Duncan-Al Jefferson-Kawhi Leonard-Manu-Devin Harris, and a bench of Millsap, Blair, Gary Neal and James Anderson. That’s almost enough to contend. They would just need another swingman for the veteran’s minimum (providing it stays around) to have a quality, championship-calibre rotation.