With Channel Ten pulling out of negotiations with Channel Seven over buying some of its free-to-air AFL matches, and Channel Nine seemingly unable or unwilling to step in, the AFL will be on one free-to-air network come 2012, simplifying things for fans and opening the door for rival codes.
For the NRL, it leaves a network that desperately needs to fill the AFL void with some premium Australian sporting content, led by a CEO – Lachlan Murdoch – who is not only a league fan but comes from a family that has heavily invested in the code, needing to outbid current free-to-air hosts, who have final bidding rights.
The ingredients are there for a mega-deal that can get close to the billion-dollar mark first broken by the AFL; certainly with the potential to exceed the $800 million mark bandied about in the media.
The NRL has some key selling points to take to potential broadcasters.
In the State of Origin series (three guaranteed ratings hits), Indigenous All Stars and other representative fixtures, it has more to offer than a home and away season with finals.
It has its Monday night football timeslot, which, given the AFL’s hesitancy to commit to the night, stands alone as the only sporting fixture on the day and could be one the fixtures to move across to free-to-air.
Meanwhile, the possibility of future expansion keeps the door open to the likes of Perth, Adelaide, Central Coast and more teams in Queensland.
But it’s the number of contenders for the NRL rights that would suggest it could push the predicted mark.
Current hosts, Channel Nine, cannot afford to lose its prime Australian sporting content, particularly at this critical juncture for the network as it struggles to match Channel 10 and Seven in the ratings.
Over at Channel 10, Murdoch and his cohorts may be sweeping through the place and cutting out significant chunks off its budget, but they too need premium sporting content if they are to truly connect with the younger audience they seem to be targeting.
ONE remains home to heavy sporting content, despite the recent makeover, and one cannot have failed to miss the increased NRL content this year.
The NRL represents a guaranteed ratings hit, particularly when State of Origin is thrown in the mix. While the AFL has a much greater national representation and can command more attention across the five major cities (Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide), the NRL’s great strength lies in the big numbers it can attract in New South Wales and Queensland – two of three most populous states.
That will count for a lot when Nine and 10 weigh-up their bids.
And, ultimately, the fact that both have been left without any AFL frees them up for both timeslots and budget allocations to go to war for the NRL.
Meanwhile, Foxtel will be heavily involved in the negotiations to ensure it doesn’t lose too much of its NRL content. Rugby league content accounted for 77 of the top 100 programs on the pay television provider – a fact the NRL will leverage in the bidding process.
Given those strong numbers, Foxtel won’t want to lose out entirely in the bidding, even if it faces a reduced number of exclusive games given the greater interest from free-to-air.
Given it will have heavy AFL content on the soon-to-be launched dedicated AFL channel, retaining some NRL will give the pay-TV provider the national appeal and selling point it needs to reach as many homes as it can.
And remember, Channel Seven won’t rule out an NRL bid.
Even though it has exclusive free-to-air AFL commitments and has stated it is still keen to retain V8 Supercars (like the NRL, up for grabs from 2013 on), one fancies they could be throwing their hat in the ring to drive up the asking price for their rivals to pay.
This is all good news for the NRL and the likes of V8 Supercars. The AFL’s billion-dollar television has, in fact, opened the landscape up nicely – simplifying things, somewhat.
Whether Channel 10 and Nine divvy up rugby league between them remains to be seen. But there is now room to move and negotiate – and two networks, left out of the AFL’s deal, can not only battle for the NRL rights, there could be more room for V8 Supercars and co to get more breathing room and their own greater slice of the pie, without the need to resort to secondary digital channels.
With the digital revolution continuing unabated and digital channels’ ratings and reach increasing by the week, there could be a lot more wiggle room for sporting codes.
Dare we mention the likes of Super Rugby, A-League, Socceroos qualifiers and the like as options for free-to-air commercial networks now? Foxtel’s hold on them and the concerns regarding how they’d rate on free-to-air would suggest not.
But things seem a lot less cluttered for all codes. And they seem to be shaping up nicely for the NRL, thanks to the AFL – funnily enough.
Follow Adrian on twitter @AdrianMusolino
dunni
Guest
Lived in NSW and VIC. AFL as a bigger roll-on then Nrl. Southern NSW, SA, WA maintly AFL. I prefer football myself and used to be major NRL follower but no more. Ive noticed that many dodgy people hang out at local nrl grounds.
Redb
Roar Guru
"One senior television rights expert told me privately this week that league is at least of equal value to the AFL" That's very funny :) Can we see the public sources first then deal with the private ones Or is the private source the head of News Ltd ;).
Redb
Roar Guru
How are the Sat night ratings going for NRL on FTA? AFL over 800K on Sat night, it is often out rating the Friday night these days as the AFL has used FNF to gvie all clubs exposure. If you accept that the Friday Night adueicne is split with little cross over, the FNF ratings war is moot as one code is not pinching viewers off the other, it comes down to the game and how attractive the game is to respective fans.
Crosscoder
Roar Guru
Big Ben Conversely we dont need 1.25b, to spend out time trolling AFL sites,for the hell of it. RL has no future TV deal in place,so you are comparing figs with avocados. Not the fans of Port Adelaide(living in fanatsy land),they need the largesse of the great leader to continue.
Crosscoder
Roar Guru
JamesP There is a problem with your argument. R Wilson is a News Ltd employee the very same organsiation that will need to cough up the money for Pay TV.The lady in question is also very,very close to the head of part of the News Ltd organisation. In fact it is fair to say that 12 months ago she was putting down the notion of the code getting a big TV deal down,now has changed her mind.Wonder why? Wouldn't have anything to do with the ratings results,not bleeding much LOL. Just to keep you up to speed the very same lady,is a Swans ambassador,and does more than her fair share of writing fluff pieces for that code.In fact one day writing about her sons attending and how excited they were . And JamesP you keep ignoring theso called "dodgy" regioanls,beacuse these same "dodgy "regionals have a habit of deliverring large numbers ,and the large population in those are are hardly "dodgy",but hard working Australians,that are in fact consumers. Now she may well have gone off half cocked about S003 and its ratings, but we will never know until the event is over, will we!. Settle down, the people you are putting down are no more or less reliable,than the Caro Wilsons ,P Smiths,Walls,Baums.Caro Wilson's famous line against rugby league after an offfield dramá "how many hits can this game take".Probably as many as the AFL would be the considered response to Caro. Ironic you bagging Rothfield,he has been bagging of late rl crowds and rapping the Suns and swans crowds by drawing comparisons.Thanks with your point,at least we now know he is sprouting BS.
JamesP
Guest
wow...you're quoting Rebecca Wison. Her predictions make Roy Masters look like a genius... My favourite line was this one: "... and even the AFL grand final is set to be out-rated by league's big game in September." Thats gold. Way to go Rebecca...not even in 2009 with the Melbourne Storm in the grand final and on Sunday prime time has the NRL grand final audience (including the dodgy regionals) beaten the AFL. Last year it was smashed. Keep quoting Rebecca Boomshanka. Who's next? Phil Rothfield?
Paul
Guest
For me, the jury is still out on this one.
BIG BEN
Guest
"But a person who has to put something else down in order to “prove” it has some deep seeded psychological issues" Perhaps you should read your post and reflect on comments such as "AFL trolls" and "They're insignificant in the scheme of things." and then take your medication. The actual fact is AFL has secured 1.25 billion dollars for tv alone. RL has a deal about one third of that. AFL fans can AFFORD to live in "fantasy land"
Cman
Roar Rookie
What ever Xman... You either rate or you don't and NRL is all over the AFL on free 2 air and Pay TV....1.3 billion here we come!!!!!
Xman
Guest
That's 2 live, prime time, and targeted NRL games vs 1 delayed, late and non targeted AFL game. The fact the AFL win any with that comparison is amazing.
Al from ctown
Guest
Sounds good to me jvcd, means I can still justify having foxtel... Only get it for league now that one hd has taken the moto gp... -- Comment left via The Roar's iPhone app. Download The Roar's iPhone App in the App Store here.
JCVD
Guest
I Think if the NRL plays their card right, then I think we should be able to attract a $1 billion deal just for the home/away season + finals. I feel if SOO and test matches are sold separately (which they should be), along with the home/away season on Sky NZ and Sky in the UK then overall I think the NRL will attract a figure most likely around the $1.3 billion. What do you guys think? What financial sum do you think the SOO series can attract??? I would be happy with this sort of a round (with the inclusion of 2 extra teams of course :P): 2 Live Friday night games on Free to air 3 Live Saturday Games on Foxsports possibly 1 afternoon game + 2 night games 3 Sunday games broken up into 1 afternoon game live on Foxsports, 1 afternoon game live on FTA + 1 live night game 1 Live Monday night game on Free to Air I think that schedule layout will keep both the fans and TV companies happy. Any thoughts?
Queensland's game is rugby league
Guest
Because AwFuL fans live in a fantasy world.
Queensland's game is rugby league
Guest
My condolences go out Mr Annersley for being stuck at an AwFuL match. I cannot think of a worse way to spend a night. I'd prefer to spend the night in a hospital.
Queensland's game is rugby league
Guest
The best thing about Roy is he stirred up the Aussie rules fans for a few years. :d
Queensland's game is rugby league
Guest
I doubt the broadcasters would pay $2.5 billion. At least not until 2030. Still, I think the NRL deserves it as they were screwed over the last time the deal was negotiated.
Nick the second
Guest
NRL Fastest growing sport in Australia in every key demographic. Specifically U20 demographic. UFC fastest growing sport in the world. What do they have in common? Action, brutality and they don't take 4 hours out of the day. That's why Cricket has gone 20twenty, AFL needs to get tough or shorten the game as the youth of today have better things to do and have PG video games with more action.
GrecoRoman
Guest
Oikee, I know you are up in Brisbane and I wouldn't wish to counter your points in relation to that city, but down here in Sydney the sporting landscape and participation is a lot more fractured. There are large parts of the city where Rugby League has little participation or interest. I think that the other 4 capitals of the mainland states are fairly monocultural when it comes to sport - AFL: Perth, Adelaide and Melbourne - NRL: Brisbane. However, in Sydney it's just not the case. It's very RL-centric where I live in the Western Suburbs though.
oikee
Guest
All sounds great, but you still did not address the fact rugby league is our country biggest game in our major city, and 3rd largest city. With a new team added to Perth, with wider free to air coverage our game has alot of scoop to pull those figures back, now if i was a betting man, i know where my money would be if i wanted promotion from Perth to the eastern states. That is one for you, you say your a salemen, then get on a sure thing. We dont know where our tv deal is at the moment, but as a free to air game competing against the afl juggernaught, i think if i was a salesman, i would do a Toyota, have my foot in both camps.
the fact is
Guest
All the AFL trolls are posting on this article because they're insecure. If they think their sport is the best, so be it. But a person who has to put something else down in order to "prove" it has some deep seeded psychological issues. I don't know why AFL fans are so insecure and I don't really care. They're insignifcant in the scheme of things.