Essendon’s Alwyn Davey, Ben Howlett and Jake Melksham celebrate their team’s win after the AFL Round 15 match between the Essendon Bombers and the Geelong Cats at Etihad Stadium, Melbourne. Slattery Media Group.
There’s cause for optimism at AFL House, particularly coming off a round in which Collingwood, Carlton and Essendon – the traditional Melbourne powerhouses – enjoyed euphoric wins in front of big crowds at home.
With Collingwood, Geelong, Hawthorn and Carlton top four contenders, followed by Western Bulldogs, St Kilda, Essendon, North Melbourne and Melbourne in a gaggle hunting for a finals berth, things are looking well for the Victorian/VFL contingent.
Only the two Western Australian clubs seem to be providing much resistance.
Having its core of Victorian teams healthy and happy is an ongoing concern for the AFL – and, arguably, should be just as much of a concern long-term as the wellbeing of the expansion clubs.
After all, clubs such as Greater Western Sydney Giants, Gold Coast Suns, Brisbane Lions et al have exclusivity in Aussie Rules terms in their respective markets.
Melbourne teams don’t, particularly as the generations pass. The VFL demarcations erode and market forces truly pressure the clubs operating in such close quarters; representing suburbs in a national competition.
In the coming decades, the question of whether the national competition can sustain 10 Victorian-based (nine Melbourne) teams will inevitably be asked, particularly as their rivals outside of Victoria cement themselves in their markets and grow into stronger and more financially well-off clubs.
Other codes will also impinge within the Victorian market – Melbourne Rebels, Heart, Victory and Storm still relatively new entities when compared to the AFL clubs.
The Victorian question could ultimately hold the key to future AFL expansion. When the GWS Giants enter the competition next season, the AFL would, it seems, be set for the foreseeable future with a balanced 18-team competition – two teams each in Western Australia, South Australia, Queensland and New South Wales, in addition to its 10-team VFL core. But the AFL may not stop there.
“If anybody had thought 21 years ago what the AFL looked like today, they would have been delusional and kidding themselves,” Andrew Demetriou told the Herald Sun.
“Therefore, you’d hope in the next 21 years we’ve got the same 18 teams and if anything is going to happen, there will be more teams because that seems to be the pattern.
“The places that come to mind are Tasmania, northern Queensland and northern WA. And quite frankly, it’s not beyond the realms of possibility as the world gets smaller that you could have a team based abroad. New Zealand or South Africa would be a chance.”
Let’s put aside the international expansion suggestion for another column (coming soon) and focus on matters closer to home. The AFL’s hesitancy to expand into Tasmania and Darwin (Northern Territory) comes down to simple economics.
Second teams in Queensland and New South Wales could help unlock the last two of the big five markets with sole club representatives – a weekly presence in the five key television markets. Spreading the game’s gospel into foreign territories simply underpinned this justification.
The football heritage in Tasmania and Northern Territory didn’t matter; their relative market share did. Also, these fringe options remain relocation options for any clubs squeezed out of Victoria.
As we’ve seen, if North Melbourne, for example, having struggled on the breadline for a number of years now, cannot survive in Melbourne, an increased presence and possible eventual relocation to Tassie makes sense. So, why start a Tassie franchise from scratch and close off that possibility?
Once the Giants culminate this most recent expansion phase in 2012, the AFL could well look to its options for further growth – international or otherwise.
But before it does so it needs to look in its own backyard and determine: which Victorian clubs are the most vulnerable? How will the future growth of wider Melbourne impact these clubs? Is that growth enough to sustain them all long-term? And how can they develop a relocation strategy without too much bloodshed and tears?
Some of those questions cannot be answered just yet, but not forgetting about the Victorian question at a time when the focus is on the likes of western Sydney and the Gold Coast is a necessity.
The lessons from the messy, mooted mergers of the eighties and nineties and the more recent relocation debates need to be remembered.
Fitzroy were at one time or another linked with merging with Melbourne, North Melbourne, Hawthorn and Sydney before eventually finding a new home in Brisbane (Fitzroy diehards will disagree that the true Lions spirit is living in Brisbane).
It was a messy and ugly process, but one that was needed to shed a team and open up the competition to further markets.
With promotion and relocation highly unlikely and a conference system opening up its own can of worms, staying at 18 clubs yet continuing to increase the national footprint could come down to Victorian clubs relocating – shipped off to Tassie, Darwin, Townsville or elsewhere.
Are we witnessing the last golden era for the Victorian-based clubs as a group, before the pressure of fighting for their share of Melbourne and the continued rise of multiple interstate opposition wears their numbers down?
It may sound like an exaggeration at present, but this is the long-term dilemma of a competition with state roots (VFL) that is morphing into a truly national competition.
Follow Adrian on twitter @AdrianMusolino
JTH
Guest
Yeah, if a NQL team comes into the league, it shoudl be based in Cairns, not Townsville or anywhere further south
Lachlan
Roar Guru
Thanks for the reply, i believe that Wagga Wagga team could work as well, but Albury is only an hour or 2 away from wagga wagga. Too far away? Remember NT Thunder play in the Northern Conference. "Why Ruin the Ovens and Murray?" Thats a grerat question, i have researched a lot of leagues around australia and there are far too many in victoria, why not join the Hume League and the NSW ovens and murray teams and join the Victorian teams from the ovens and murray with the Shepparton League? Maybe not to that degree but just have a representitive team from down there? Tweed Heads is zoned for the SUNS which means they could be part of the Norethern Conference, i have a mate living up there and he said the competition is a lot stronger up there. Wollongong has terrific facilities.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
Wagga is possible (has played in the ACTAFL previously), Albury starting to get too far away, Ovens and Murray is the strongest country comp in the land, why ruin it? Bateman's Bay is actually stronger than Wollongong, the rest are too far away, Tweed Heads is zoned to the Suns.
Lachlan
Roar Guru
The NEAFL is an interesting one. I, for one would love to see more teams included. Recently we’ve heard the announcement of, probably, the top 2 most successful clubs from Sydney AFL being included into the competition from next year, but is this enough? There is already 10 teams competing in the Northern Conference: Aslpey (Brisbane) Redland (Brisbane) Mt Gravatt (Brisbane) Morningside (Brisbane) Southport (Gold Coast) Broadbeach (Gold Coast) Labrador (Gold Coast) NT Thunder (Darwin + Alice Springs) Brisbane Lions Reserves Gold Coast Suns Reserves Cairns has come up a number of times, to have a team in the new league. Should deffinetly be considered before next season. Make it so its like a representitive side, which is based in Cairns and has a whole new name and has players from teams throughout Cairns AFL. This method, if you will, should be considered for other future teams aswell. Such as Townsville, Sunshine Coast, Rockhampton, Mackay and Toowoomba. There are 7 teams this year in the Eastern Conference: Belconnen (ACT) Eastlake (ACT) Ainslie (ACT) Tuggeranong (ACT) Queanbeyan (ACT) Sydney Swans Reserves Greater Western Sydney Giants (2012 Giants Reserves) Sydney University (2012 Sydney) East Coast Eagles (2012 Sydney) Places such as Newcastle/Central Coast, Wollongong, Coffs Harbour, Tweed Heads, Wagga Wagga, Albury (Ditch the Ovens and Murray, bring in the big NSW teams and leave the Victorian teams to form a league between themselves. Which will bring major competition into the Eastern Conference and create stronger clubs from down south and make them part of this major new state league competition).
Republican
Guest
It is if this gives further leverage to expand the AFL comp to NZ at the expense of Tassie - again and of course the ACT or NT etc. The WFN mob will be salivating at the prospect especially since the ACT are likely to be the SP's next scalp. I believe that despite this being an indicator that the code is gaining traction and strength throughout the region which is positive, it may well give the global lobby more fuel for the AFL to leapfrog any domestic option for elite presence of the code, shifting merit based on this performance. This has always been my concern but hey, more power to the lads from PNG and those other pacific countries, this is no mean feat, i.e. defeating a cred footy heartland like Tassie at any level and no matter what the age disparity. I do feel for Tassie however, with a historical pedigree looking more fragile with the passing years.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
Final scores: South Pacific 11.13 (79) Tasmania 10.17 (77) sounds like a fantastic game of footy Republican Not sure what you are so worried about. 1. Yes, the Sth Pacific team are, on average, a couple of years older than the Aust state teams, that can gradually be evened up as they get better over the forthcoming years. 2. I'd say that much of the team would consist of PNG players, who have made great strides over the past decade (recalling the game has been played there since at least WWII). Look, when tiny countries beat bigger countries in soccer or rugby (as often happens), no one makes a song and dance about one or the other game being easy to play - it's a silly argument. The more a country is exposed to a game, the more competition it gets, the better it gets - it's a very simple forumula. It's not the end of the world.
Republican
Guest
What does this say about our game if anything - The South Pacific U16 NAB side have just defeated Tassie! Does this mean our code is that simple to master, or have Tassie regressed in status, or has footy become competitive in status overnight in the Pacific region? The majority of this SP side are from PNG. Should we take into account that the SP and International sides are predominately 18 and 17 years of age compared to 16 and 15 year olds that make up all the Australian state sides?
Republican
Guest
amazonfan My sentiments exactly. I believe that it is important for those of us who do support our indigenous code of footy, to reflect on what is the essence of Australian Football that we hold sacrosanct, during this rapid era of change. The relationship we have with the code that is mostly taken for granted is what will be compromised in any commercially induced move to appease any overseas market. Personally the code at the elite level has already compromised much in terms of spectacle. The code has succumb to market forces like any commodity really. The unrelenting tinkering of it's rules etc. to somehow improve its 'market appeal' shows a shallow lack of respect for the codes heritage but to take this a quantum leap further by pushing the global envelope, we will ring in dramatic changes that decimate, disenfranchise and disempower the codes cultural community and those domestic influences we so often take for granted, for calculated commercial outcomes. For now, we do remain custodians of the game despite the AFL bankers riding rough shod over all and sundry, in respect of the direction and form our great game takes, yet somehow we all have a sense that this remains an Australian institution. I envisage a day, perhaps sooner than I would have ever thought possible, when the code expands to the culturally undeserving and potentially compromising sporting culture of NZ. I know some may see this as quite a natural and even positive evolution however for me, this will be the thin edge of the wedge that will ironically form the catalyst for a schism domestically, with many i.e. those of my persuasion, supporting the original code in lower tiers and leagues that are more to their domestic and historical tastes.
woodsman
Guest
Maybe your bubble is that people would know of Eden Park.
amazonfan
Roar Guru
It is dominant in much of Australia. But really, that's not the point. When someone writes 'dominant in Australia,' they do not necessarily mean the entire country, you know. However, thanks for ignoring the point of my post, just to start a code war.
amazonfan
Roar Guru
Thanks, I really appreciate that. :D
Jason
Guest
Never heard of Eden Park? Need to get out of your bubble a bit more I think.
voodoo people
Guest
Did you catch the Origin match last night? Will be a long time yet before AFL is "dominant" in Australia.
betamax
Roar Guru
That's actually rather nice amazonfan. Honestly. Respect.
amazonfan
Roar Guru
I agree. Personally, I don't want football, or more specifically the AFL, to go global. I don't want an international championship or anything like that. It's not because of xenophobia, but because I look upon international expansion as something that isn't appropriate for all sports. I think it is vital that cricket expands beyond the current test-playing nations, and I love it that a Chinese woman won a grand slam singles title for the first time this year. However, there are some sports where I don't think that international expansion is all that desirable. I don't think the NBA needs to expand beyond the US (and Canada) as the best foreign players simply come to the US to play. Australian Football is in the same situation for me. I don't think the AFL needs to expand, and in fact, if in 50 years, it was only dominant in Australia, that would be fine with me. It's interesting as soccer fans often refer to soccer as the World Game, with pride, and often denigrate football for being just a local game. Personally, I like it that football isn't well known outside of Australia (although I love Charles Barkle's amazement that players don't wear helmets :D); I love it that Chris Judd is a sporting superstar in Australia, but a nobody outside; I love that one of my cousin's girlfriend has played netball opposite Rebecca Judd, but nobody I know has even been to a Spice Girls concert (that I know of.) I love these things because this means that the game belongs to us. If it expands internationally, we'll lose it, and while it will still be wonderful, it just won't be the same. I'm not selfish, other countries can set up their own competitions, but I want the AFL to continue to belong to us.
Liam Quinn
Guest
Merging traditional big clubs (Richmond, Hawthorn, Melbourne) would be a dangerous move, as they would risk alienating a great deal of its traditional fan base. So merging big teams seems unlikely. PNG seems highly unlikely, as does Melbourne teams playing in country victoria. I doubt that the AFL would move Collingwood games from the MCG (where they can draw a crowd of 80000 fans) to a ground in rural victoria that might only hold 15000 and would have inferior structures in place.
amazonfan
Roar Guru
That's great! :D I sensed the punchline, however it was still very funny.
bilbo
Guest
I am from Cairns, and RL is king. Especially this time of year - origin time is crazy! People know about AFL - its not Sydney or Brisbane - but are unlikely to watch any games on TV. Junior player numbers might be strong but are only a part of an indication as to the success of a sport. Television ratings for Cowboys games and Origin would be the best indicator. The Cairns Junior comp is strong, with four current maroons coming from the Cairns comp. 18,000 people (roughly 15-20% of the population) turned up for a Cowboys trial three years ago. I must say though, that except for the Wallabies in the world cup and the bledisloe - AFL has a bigger presence than RU in Cairns.
TW
Guest
If you cannot see it I cannot help that. You are referring to a handful of hopefulls who may or may not break in to the top tier. The only reason the clubs are looking at lower levels anyhow is the current draft system which will revert to normal in a couple of years. Look what happens when senior players go down - The AFL squads have the numbers but not sufficent talent. 18 clubs is starting to stretch the base somewhat. There has been articles in the Perth footy media highlighting the same topic.
woodsman
Guest
I agree with amazonfan. Geelong's regional base model is being copied and will be successful for Footscray, St Kilda (to Frankytown) and now even Essendon to give them clearly staked geographical niches that should keep them viable long term. With Melbourne and Richmond both cleared of debt and having high historical public support whether up or down, North Melbourne is the only other Victorian based club that will be terminally threatened in the forseeable future. While Tasmania clearly deserves its own team, Kangaroos fans also deserve to retain their club. If the Kangaroos are forced towards relocation, the move to link to Ballarat should be the priority, not to the Apple Isle.