New South Wales Anthony Minichiello (centre) celebrates after scoring a try against Queensland during game 2 of the State of Origin Rugby League series in Sydney, Wednesday, June 15, 2011. Queensland lead the series with a win in game 1. (AAP Image/Dean Lewins)
Amidst all the talk of restructuring the NRL representative calendar recently, perhaps the most telling comment was David Gallop’s observation a fortnight ago that Channel Nine would be reluctant to give up the current midweek Origin slot.
“One of the beauties of Origin football is that it’s on a weeknight”, Gallop said.
“We get clear air and we get that build-up time for the players to be in camp… It all builds on the intensity of Origin and those are the things we’re looking at at the moment.”
We could quibble with just how important a midweek slot (with the implication of less on air competition from rival programs) is to Origin’s appeal as a TV product. But of Australia’s top 10 most watched TV programs in the OzTam era, four of the five sporting events to appear were televised on a Saturday or Sunday.
What isn’t in any doubt, however, is how important stellar Origin ratings are to Nine – and how fiercely they’ll oppose any changes to the schedule that might make things better from the NRL purist’s point of view, but more difficult for the broadcaster.
Throw in a ruthlessly compliant and conservative NRL and it seems clear that nothing substantive will change, despite all the sensible arguments for a rep season re-think.
Here are a few numbers that might make Nine’s (and the NRL’s) seeming intransigence on the scheduling issue a little more understandable:
Game I of this year’s Origin series attracted an average of over 2.2 million capital city viewers in Australia. The ratings for Game II were only slightly lower, with an average of around 2.15 million.
Throw in around 1.2 million viewers combined in regional markets of Queensland, northern NSW, southern New South Wales and Victoria (for whom ratings are compiled in a separate survey), and strength in the key younger demographic, and you have a fairly good sense of the weight of numbers up against the argument for any sort of change.
Perhaps more importantly, if past experience is anything to go by, the ratings for Wednesday night’s Origin decider could make the figures for Game I and Game II look somewhat pedestrian.
In fact, in the countdown to kickoff in a little over a day’s time, Nine and NRL executives will be quietly confident that this year’s third Origin match might set a new viewership record for the interstate series.
It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that the TV ratings should give 2009’s record capital city figure a big shake.
The hype for this series in general has been massive, and the pundits have been busy pondering the decider’s potential status as The Biggest Origin Game of All Time.
Having the series go down to the third game obviously helps. Over the last six years, on every occasion Game III has been ‘live’ – 2008, 2006 and 2005 – it has attracted the strongest ratings of any match in the series.
A full graphical history of the game-by-game capital city figures is available.
There are other sources of support, too.
The largest rugby league (and overall) TV market in Australia – Sydney – is also the most fickle when it comes to watching the ‘home’ state (whereas for club and representative football, Queenslanders will watch almost anything in big numbers, provided it involves Queenslanders).
Sydney ratings have tended to spike when hype around the series is at its highest, with the two strongest rating games in recent history being the opening matches of the 2010 and 2011 series (the first followed the massive barney in Origin III 2009, and the second involved the controversy surrounding Ricky Stuart’s controversial selections for the opening game).
Up in Brisbane, where ratings have recently been somewhat higher for games played at Suncorp rather than away, you have the perfect storm: a series decider, at home, for the most successful Origin team ever, in a match which represents the last hurrah for legendary captain Darren Lockyer – the biggest farewell since King Wally.
Even down in Melbourne ratings have been humming along pretty respectably in recent years after Nine belatedly began showing some modicum of faith in the Southern TV prospects for its most valuable ratings product.
Taking a rough stab, 1.1 million viewers in Sydney, 850 thousand in Brisbane and 300 thousand in Melbourne seems to be a reasonably conservative ‘par’ for Game III.
These are all around the higher end of numbers which have been achieved before for Origin matches – and they could even be on the conservative side given the special appeal of Game III this year.
Throw in between 50 and 200 thousand combined viewers in the rugby league “other” of Adelaide and Perth – depending on when Nine deign to show the thing – and you are within poking distance of an Origin capital city ratings record.
Add another 1.2 million plus regional viewers and you have a total average audience somewhere in the 3.5 million plus range – and a peak audience that probably reads “four-point something” million.
All of which means that, whatever the result, there will be a story tucked away in every paper about another smashing Origin ratings success – and another good reason to think that when it comes to NRL season scheduling, while major changes are needed, nothing major will be changing any time soon.
Crosscoder
Roar Guru
No one is suggesting that people Oz wide have fallen in love with rugby league.All that is being stated is people to a lesser extent in the non rl states have to whatever numbers,shown either a passing or keen interest in the series,as they do at G/F time,by tuning in.That applies to the Swans et al. The advertisers,adminstrators and sponsors take note.It's called promoting the game,something the code is pretty ordinary at so doing,and the same is applicable to their broadcaster ch9. The code and its fans are doing no more,than administrators and followers of other codes,when they get decent Oz wide ratings.It is not just a rl thing. In fact when it comes to crowds the local media a big deal out of the Swans getting a bigger crowd than the Roosters v Knights next door on the same day,and ditto the Suns v Titans. As Jack Gibson would say (as we are obviously delighted with the SOO Tv ratinngs) ,some of the knockers would boo Santa Clauss.
M1tch
Roar Guru
I was right ;)
Bondy
Guest
It's interesting now people want to produce stats to clarify why the S.O.O. series is loved an adored nation wide , but is it really look at the socceroos when they play a first game in a world cup at 12.30 am those viewing figures will be similar if not greater but most people take it as a one off, though some people here believe that Rugby League is loved by the Nation which to me is false . It's a major event with a lot more bells and whistles nationally . If the Swans make a G.F. do we really say that N.S.W. has fallen in love with the Swans due to the market increase of T.V. i think not . As a New South Welshman the team never let me down they tried hard and i am satisfied that we were beaten by a better team on the most important of nights thats sport , but to suggest that the Nation has suddenly fallen in love with Rugby League is fanciful.
Boomshanka
Guest
For the Record: SOO Game 3 3,765,000 AFL Grand Final 2010 3,685,000 AFL Grand Final Replay 2010 3,559,000
Paul J
Guest
Great article Sam Game 3 of origin outrated the NRL and both AFL grand finals of 2010. http://www.leagueunlimited.com/article.php?newsid=21521
Sam H
Roar Pro
Except that it is a record. From the article above "Taking a rough stab, 1.1 million viewers in Sydney, 850 thousand in Brisbane and 300 thousand in Melbourne seems to be a reasonably conservative ‘par’ for Game III." That was bang on for Sydney and around 50K under in Brisbane, Melbourne. Record capital city and national ratings overall - a good result for a game that looked well and truly over after 30 minutes.
bilbo
Guest
It is a record for the five cities for state of origin - however with regionals the number is closer to 4million. Ratings are generally compiled for the 5 cities, blogs such as TV tonight dont deal with regionals. This is bad for the NRL as NSW and Qld have large regional populations, and the game is strong there. Either way, the pleasing aspect is that 350,000 in Melbourne shows the popularity is growing down there - there were also strong figures from Perth and Adelaide, both of whom dont have teams. Sydney's figures were the second highest ever for SOO, and Queensland's was the highest in history. Grand final figures are usually larger in Sydney, however unless the broncos are playing, SOO figures are higher in Brisbane than the GF.
Crosscoder
Roar Guru
You don't know what I am on about RedB , well I will spell it out. I was referring to what I understood as your endorsement(6/7) of Jaceman's comment (6/7) about rl fans being NRL employees,because he suggested rl fans were trying to spin numbers,to get a lift in their TV rights deal. The numbers are what they are ,provided by ratings organisations.In fact the latest SOO3 ratings will further assist the code's push for a much bigger increase.And that is no spin.
Crosscoder
Roar Guru
In actual fact the SOO3 is a record since Oztam ratings were introduced.2.476m metro and 1.289m regionals ,all averages not peaks. Better luck next time is appropriate .Maybe the tv industry hasn't a clue.
Better luck next time
Guest
For some reason I don't think 2.468 million is a record ;)
Redb
Roar Guru
Really dont know what your talking about it do you. Jaceman correctly pointed out the Ess v Geel game was also on Sat night same time as the Swans game.
Crosscoder
Roar Guru
So he is therefore the source of all that is reliable ,accurate and unbiased.You read it here first.
Boomshanka
Guest
I did not watch Channel Nine last night, however the EJ Whitten AFL match was promoted throughout SOO Game Two (a month ago) in Melbourne with no complimentary commitment to showing SOO game three. Reckon Nine programmers were praying for a rapped up series so they could have trotted out the earlier excuses that "being a dead rubber - no one would be interested" as they did last year. In New Zealand tonight, about to head down to one of the many pubs showing the game "live and uninterrupted" (ie no ads in live play). Why do the kiwis get better coverage here? The Warriors match on Friday will be shown similarly "live and uninterrupted" whilst Melbourne viewers will have to wait on a seven hour delay. So much for the so called "World Capital of Sport"
Crosscoder
Roar Guru
I blame you for the conspiracy,as you have direct access to ch9 Melbourne. They said???? Who said anything about union and AFL owning Tv stations over the world conspiring.Provide link Dave.Or is it just another one of your flights of fancy.
Crosscoder
Roar Guru
RedB Simply by adhering to their NRL Tv contractual obligations on Friday night,which Gallop(you remember him something to do with the NRL),has openly stated they do not do,and wimply stated it is not worth pursuing. NRL champ not SOO.There is no Friday evening SOO.If it were so I would have alerted you.
Jaceman
Guest
I am not sure of your point James B but I follow all football codes and wherever someone makes some outrageous claim not based on fact then I feel the need to correct it. Lately its been on the NRL pages after some (I repeat some) have tried to boost the NRLs case for a large lift in their TV rights deal after the AFL's bonanza. You get the impression that some contributors are NRL employees by the way they spin various numbers...
Scott
Guest
I know the AFL game last night was a fundraiser for men's cancer. I'm not challenging the notion of the game, in terms of fundraising for the cause. More power to it. What I'm looking at is Channel 9 itself. Maybe they did advertise during the match, but that's the first time I've known of any advertising for Game 3 at all. (By the way, if you were new to Melbourne, you wouldn't have known through the advertising that it was a charity fundraiser. All the ads were about was Wayne Carey, "Big V", and "Fossil", not the real reason for the match's existence). And besides, this year is the first time that I know of, where Storm matches are being shown in Melbourne at a decent time, not at stupid am. New contract negotiations are just around the corner, and Ch9 down here is acknowledging that Rugby League (not just rep matches) even exists...coincidence perhaps??? Who knows...we may even get a FULL Grand Final day's coverage, not just 1 match following a 1950s Elvis movie at 2pm.
Dean - Surry Hills
Guest
Sydney Pubs and Clubs who have large screens do well on SOO encounters. If the event was moved to a Saturday night, then the pubs would produce near record sales at the bars. With the current Wednesday night schedule, and work the next day for the majority of viewers, they are inclined to stay indoors and have a few, rather than half a case. Considering that both teams are sponsored by beer brands, with each aiming for a share of sales on every SOO occassion, wouldn't it make sense for them to be targeting the NRL for a shift from Wednesdays to Saturdays ?
Dave
Guest
Theres a conspiracy from rugby and AFL towards rugby league all over the world according to rugby league fans because rugby and AFL owns and influence TV stations they said.
Dave
Guest
What do your eyes see Bondy? Do rugby league fans in NZ have to buy NPC, Super Rugby, Tri Nations, Bledisloe Cup and World Cup tickets this year?