The much anticipated naming of the 2011 All Black team will finally take place on Sunday morning, ahead of the Tri-Nations and one off Test with Fiji. It is also likely to be a good indicator who the ‘three wise men’ will take into the Rugby World Cup later this year.
They are a team gifted with so much talent all over the field, which will make for some tough decisions as some good players will have to be left out.
Whether you pick by form or by past experience is a big question and will have a big impact on who the players chosen will be.
It’s unlikely that the selectors will look to change too much at this late stage, but some players have put their hands up by playing out of their skin, while others from last year’s team have been awful this year. How much of an influence this will have on the naming of the team is anyone’s guess.
So then. To the team.
Firstly we must decide how many players will be chosen in each position. From past teams and from what the selectors have said already, it seems likely there will be four props, three hookers, four locks, five looseforwards, three halfbacks, two first-fives, four midfielders and five outside backs.
So to fill these positions with names.
The props are likely to consist of the Franks brothers, Owen and Ben.
Both have been very good over the past two years and have been large factors in the dominant Crusaders scrum. John Afoa will get the nod after a good Super 15, as well as having the ability to play both sides of the scrum, making him a useful player to have particularly as cover.
With Tony Woodcock unlikely to be fit, one spot remains. Wyatt Crockett is undoubtedly the frontrunner to fill this spot, on the back of an outstanding Super 15 where he was arguably the most improved player of the competition.
Keven Mealamu will be the No. 1 hooker, but the other two spots are largely up for debate.
Andrew Hore has all the experience in the world, but his form in 2011 has been well below his best.
Meanwhile Corey Flynn has been outstanding for the Crusaders while Hika Elliot has done well in an average Chiefs forward pack. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see the selectors take Flynn and Elliot as their second and third hookers.
Brad Thorn and Sam Whitelock are shoo-ins at lock.
It also seems as though Ali Williams has come back into favour and has found form in the past few weeks.
Personally I don’t think he’s the best option, but it seems almost certain that he will be in the squad.
This leaves one spot which is to be contested and with Anthony Boric injured, will be contested by Highlanders Tom Donnelly and Jarrad Hoeata.
Tom Donnelly was a regular starter for the team last year, but struggled to make the starting line-up for the Highlanders this season, being overlooked by Jarrad Hoeata who has burst onto the scene in the last six months with his aggressive game.
Hoeata also has the ability to play blindside flanker, and because of this, I’m tipping him to be named, as this will enable them to name two opensides and still have plenty of grunt in the loose.
The starting looseforward trio will comprise of Kieran Read, Jerome Kaino and captain Richie McCaw.
However, the two cover players aren’t so obvious. One would have to think Adam Thomson will find his way back into the team after an outstanding season.
This once again, leaves us with one spot. Here it’s a bit more tricky. Whether the selectors choose to take another specialist openside flanker, or just use a make-shift openside should McCaw fall to injury, such as Thomson.
Should they take a specialist it will be either Daniel Braid or Matt Todd.
Braid has experience and has played in the black jersey before, however he hasn’t seen much rugby this year. Matt Todd, inexperienced though he may be, has been outstanding in his Super Rugby rookie season and gets my vote to cover Richie McCaw.
Should the selectors opt to take just one openside, Liam Messam will undoubtedly fill the last looseforward spot after a good season in a bad Chiefs team.
But if I stick with my theory of picking Hoeata because of his ability to play on the side of the scrum, Matt Todd will fill this spot, although it’s hard leaving out Messam.
Halfbacks will be Jimmy Cowan, Piri Weepu and Andy Ellis. Each brings a different skill set, and all bring experience and good form into the team.
This brings us to the most talked about position in New Zealand, and possibly world rugby over the past 12 months. First-five.
As sure as the sun will come up tomorrow morning, Daniel Carter will definitely be the starter.
But who will his back up be?
After five early contenders, it seems as though we are down to just two, Colin Slade and Aaron Cruden.
Both are young and relatively inexperienced and will have questions asked of them, no matter who is chosen.
Slade has struggled with injury this year, but has looked good when he has played. He has a good all round game which in my books, makes him the best option.
Cruden was tried last year and never looked the goods. He has improved in 2011, but his kicking in general play still needs work and defensively he isn’t as good as Slade.
Ma’a Nonu, Conrad Smith and Sonny Bill Williams are all almost certainties in the midfield, and it seems likely that Richard Kahui will be the fourth.
Nonu, Smith and Kahui have looked as good as they’ve been able to in struggling Super 15 sides, while Williams has improved by leaps and bounds as the season has gone on for the Crusaders.
If we go by past teams, the five outside backs will consist of two specialist wings, a fullback, a utility and one other.
Here the question of current form versus past form and experience is most evident.
The two form wingers this season have been the Crusaders duo of Zac Guilford and Sean Maitland.
Maitland has never played for the All Blacks and Guilford has had limited opportunities despite showing good form in the past. However, it would surprise me if they passed up Guilford again.
Joe Rokocoko and Sitiveni Sivivatu have both been talked up as possibilities, particularly Sivivatu, but choosing either would be a step backwards and would unearth the problems the team had in 2009.
Sure both were class players, but neither are as good as they once were and there are better options available.
After waiting seemingly forever to get a chance, Hosea Gear proved to be a beast during last year’s end of year tour and will likely be chosen again.
Cory Jane has been far from his best, but was exceptional for the All Blacks last year and it would be a fair bet that he will get another chance in the black jersey this year.
He is arguably the best all-round wing in New Zealand and is just as adept at fullback.
Rene Ranger is a contender also, but may suffer from having fallen out of favour at the Blues.
Nevertheless he is an X-Factor player who is dangerous with ball in hand and could very well feature, although as far as this team goes, I’ll take Guilford over him.
Mils Muliaina will be the starting fullback, enough said.
The final spot in the team, the utility, will be contested between Isaia Toeava and Ben Smith. Both have had outstanding seasons, although Toeava has been injured for the last two months.
Smith played two games for the All Blacks in 2009 and a recall would be completely justifiable.
But if Toeava is available, he will be chosen. The selectors have always shown loyalty to the boy who they told us was the next big thing in 2005 and it would be unlikely that they would stray away from this now.
Also keep in mind Israel Dagg will fit in there somewhere too for the World Cup.
So that leaves us with this team (listed by position):
Owen Franks (Crusaders)
Ben Franks (Crusaders)
John Afoa (Blues)
Wyatt Crockett (Crusaders)
Keven Mealamu (Blues)
Corey Flynn (Crusaders)
Hika Elliot (Chiefs)
Brad Thorn (Crusaders)
Sam Whitelock (Crusaders)
Ali Williams (Blues)
Jarrad Hoeata (Highlanders)
Richie McCaw (c) (Crusaders)
Kieran Read (Crusaders)
Jerome Kaino (Blues)
Adam Thomson (Highlanders)
Matt Todd (Crusaders)
Jimmy Cowan (Highlanders)
Piri Weepu (Hurricanes)
Andy Ellis (Crusaders)
Daniel Carter (Crusaders)
Colin Slade (Highlanders)
Ma’a Nonu (Hurricanes)
Sonny Bill Williams (Crusaders)
Conrad Smith (Hurricanes)
Richard Kahui (Chiefs)
Zac Guilford (Crusaders)
Hosea Gear (Hurricanes)
Isaia Toeava (Blues)
Cory Jane (Hurricanes)
Mils Muliaina (Chiefs)
mac
Guest
21 is hosa gear
mac
Guest
this is my team 15-tom marshell 14-shaun matelien 13-robie fruine 12-Sonny Bill Williams 11-Sitiveni Sivivatu 10-Dan Carter 9-Jimmy Cowan 8-Kieran Read 7-Richie McCaw 6-Jerome Kaino 5-Sam Whitelock 4-Brad Thorn 3-Owen Franks 2-Keven Mealamu 1-Tony Wood 16-Andrew Hore 17-Ben Franks 18-Anthony Boric 19-Adam Thompson 20-Alby Mathewson 21- 22-Isaia Toeava
Moaman
Guest
Johnno--check this out mate ;-) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UT6oZqYij8U
ohtani's jacket
Guest
Jane started to play better towards the end of the Super 14 and played in Wellington's pre-season ITM Cup drubbing of Canterbury today. I don't think it will be particularly difficult for Jane to find some form. I think most New Zealanders would prefer Cory Jane over Rene Ranger. Ranger is the kind of player who'd be better off playing in Aussie in the same manner that Quade Cooper would've never developed into Quade Cooper in New Zealand.
Moaman
Guest
Johnno-You got me all wrong mate;I am a big SBW fan-but what I am saying is-don't put your mortgage on him starting the Big games.Nonu has a lot of skills too you know-and is the incumbent....a years' long combination forged with Conrad Smith -who will fill the 13 jersey.
Johnno
Guest
Well SBW has to start mate you are dreaming if you don't graham henry will start him. SBWA is basically the complete footballer he has it all. For toughness and aggressions he just about is no 1 in the world, he scared Bismark du pleases away when he chased him. schlock burger never dared run at him, Ma Nonu is hard manbut so is SBW, he is highly aggressive dosnt backed own to anyone i have seen SBW, not andries beaker, bakes botha, danie rossow, no one he smashed all the sharks forwad players in london this year. he's fast he offloads, he has bean his opponent 1 on all year. Jean De Villiers he bat 2 thatches out of 2, he ahsnt played nonu yet but he is bigger and taller than nonu and has more skill. And as for toughness he has played with and dominated men boggier and tougher than ma nonu in rugby league. he is the best rugby league or union player((outside of halves or hookers in rugby league), int he world. Better than Greg inglis, better than BOD, better than burger, better than samo, better han elsom, better than the hayne train, betterr than billy slater, better than Ennis or Big Gal, if SBW played for NSW in origin he would of made huge difference.
kingplaymaker
Roar Guru
Moaman like Sam you make a good point, but as a general principle I feel the ABs operate far too much because of fear and tend towards security in RWCs instead of slight risks which might yield great results. Sivivatu vs Maitland Jane vs Ranger That the first two are what Henry would instinctively chose is slightly worrying, as both are in awful form.
Moaman
Guest
KPM-they can't just "call anyone up" willy-nilly.Replacing players due to injury has strict rules covering it.There is a certain time period that must elapse before the drafted-in player is used and the replaced player cannot come back(this is RWC we are talking here) which means the Utility has immense importance if it means a key player with a monor injury can be covered-for from within the squad and later re-introduced.Also of course is the make-up of the bench....I DO see where you are coming from regarding "form" players but eventually the Selectors must decide who they regard as 'form' players-not us! Johnno eg would have SBW at 13 and Ellis at 9.I wouldn't. Henry/Hansen/Smith choose on our behalf from a number of criteria and a number of possibilities.
kingplaymaker
Roar Guru
Sam a good point, But there is no need for excessive utilities. Many players can cover, say, both wing and full-back without being the all round utility Toeava is, who I would chose for the different reason that he is very good. I think if you go for too many utilities you may not get the best team. There aren't that many matches in the tournament after all, and in some of them it would be hard to get injured (I mean against the very weak teams).
Sam Taulelei
Guest
KPM The value of a utility player in your squad is more relevant now than before as the world cup rules state that once you replace a player due to injury from outside your original squad, that same player cannot return to the squad when they regain fitness. So the worst case scenarios for Henry is that McCaw's foot injury flares up again, they don't have sufficient cover from within their squad, call up a replacement and then lose McCaw for the rest of the tournament if he regains fitness.
Sam Taulelei
Guest
Greg I've read Paul Cully's selections Cully has only selected one specialist wing in Sivivatu and four midfielders. My reasoning for selecting three midfielders is that Toeava is the perfect utility covering midfield, wing and fullback so there is no need for a fourth midfielder. Muliaina could also fill in the midfield if things got that desperate. Another specialist wing is added insurance for Toeava and Dagg's injuries that could flare up again which would leave the All Blacks light on firepower if they recurred. So I've gone for Muliaina, Dagg, Toeava, Maitland, Gear, Smith, Nonu, SBW to fill the midfield, wing and fullback positions. Cruden or Slade as Carter's understudy? I don't have a strong preference for either as they haven't played enough games or well enough to make a compelling case, and neither of them played in the finals series so whoever gets the gig will need to be exposed in the Tri Nations and Bledisloe Cup to play with confidence in the world cup. The backup for McCaw is a bit more clearcut - Messam or Todd. I've always been a fan of Messam and he's worked hard on eliminating the 50/50 parts of his game and has played with greater consistency even in a disappointing Chiefs team. Todd stood out for the Crusaders in the first half of the season and hasn't been as prominent in the back half, I know the coaches place a lot of value on how players perform in the finals series so if Todd has a strong match in the final as a substitution he may sneak in but otherwise I've gone for Messam. The other incumbents select themselves and Adam Thomson forces his way back in. I agree with his selections for the second row pending recovery from injury for Anthony Boric, and at hooker. In the front row I've replaced John Afoa with Wyatt Crockett who's form this year cannot go unrewarded.
kingplaymaker
Roar Guru
I'm sure you're right with regard to what Henry will actually do. New Zealand are in a curious position which no other country faces. They could chose any number of combinations, all of which will be very good, but it's worth remembering that even the All Blacks have tight matches and so the best team possible may actually make a difference to a RWC result in a way that one 5% worse wouldn't, or rather would but negatively. It's easy for them to think that it doesn't matter so much with the abundance of good players available and therefore to go for experience. But as I said, I'm not sure experienced but out of form players maximise the quality of the team. So that means culling Rokocoko, Sivivatu, maybe Jane. If they lose an elimination match by a narrow margin it could be this conservatism and marginal loss of quality against an over-performing opposition that lets them down, although no one will recognise it as such. It is a problem, of course, adjusting from long tournaments and tours and the broad loyalty-based planning they entail to a fast one-off event, which really needs the best performers at that point available. (on a side note I feel utility is overrated in a World Cup: they can always call anyone up) I look forward to you next article by the way Greg :-)
Moaman
Guest
Maaaaate! You're dreaming! SBW at centre? Ellis at 9? Not gonna happen mate.Cowan/Weepu then maybe Ellis. I expect when crunch time arrives it will be the old firm of Conrad Smith & Ma'a Nonu.The props are pretty settled I think;Owen Franks has one spot sewn up...Woodcock you would think will have the inside running once he regains fitness-possibly subject to how Crockett/Afoa go meantime.Both of them offer more imo around the park thesedays.Woodcock was slow to start last season as well, but came into his own later and has a wealth of experience.Crockett has come on in leaps and bounds-and Flynn is finally getting a decent run without injuries and showing his wares.Hikawera Elliot will be lucky to pip Flynn I reckon.I raise my eyebrows at your lock combo too.Would prefer to see Thorn&Whitelock myself.
Greg Russell
Roar Guru
Jim Kayes reported on TV3 news two nights ago that Corey Jane is being used to film an All Blacks promotional video today, which strongly suggests he's in. Kayes also said that Sivivatu is out (I can't remember his "evidence", but he had some). The word around the traps for a long time has been that Henry doesn't rate Maitland. Ranger probably doesn't have the all-round attributes to Henry's satisfaction. I have a suspicion that Guildford is too small for Henry's taste. Probably the same applies to Ben Smith, but his ability to play every position in the backline outside of 10 may make him attractive as a "super utility" (a bit like Toeava). By a process of elimination that leaves Muliaina, Jane, Gear, Toeava, with possibly Dagg to come back for the World Cup. I am hesitant to write off Rokocoko, as Henry is loyal to players who have never let him down, and this often overrides form at lower levels when he makes his selections. (But I agree that Joe has no case for selection on the basis of his lack of form for the Blues this year.) I am not saying these would be my picks. Probably it's a stupid game to try to guess how Henry is thinking, but if one wants to predict what players will be selected, this is what one has to do.
Johnno
Guest
All black startings team in my opinion: 15)M Muliana 14) S Sitivatu 13) SBW 12) M Nonu 11) Jane 10) DC 9) Ellis 8) K read 7) R Mcgaw 6) J Kaino just pipping A thompson and L messam 5) Ali Williams 4) B Thorn 3) Don't know enough about ALl Blacks front row just know there seems to be plenty to choose form with no definates standouts all seem to be of equal standard exception being carl Hayman who will not be picked due to being in Euro leagues 2) K Meliamu Ahore or Hika Elliot( Hika elliot is a tough no nonsense hooker i like his style) Bench: Robbie Fruen(he is a big man bigger than SBW), Maitland, Cowan, Cruden, Elliot on bench, Prop, 1 2nd row
kingplaymaker
Roar Guru
Greg one can narrow those down to a simpler choice, although it is an impressive list. Rokocoko is long finished, Sivivatu wildly out of form, Jane out of form, Smith not as good as the others, Guildford not that talented compared to the rest, Dagg injured. So that leaves, Matiland, Gear, Muliaina, Ranger, Toeava. Of course it won't be decided exactly like that. As I mention in all the discussion above, it comes down to whether they prefer out of form players who were at some stage very good, or less experienced players in better form. My personal preference in a short one off tournament would be the latter, especially as the former while good in other contexts, has got NZ nowhere in World Cups, and they have vast quantities of experience in any starting team anyway.
Ben S
Roar Guru
Spot on re: Sharks game at Twickenham. I was there and thought he was avoiding certain situations too.
Ben S
Roar Guru
That is one thing that the average punter tends to ignore - Henry has selected a lot of players. He has shown loyalty to a core, but beyond that he has been quite quick to experiment on occasion - far more than Deans or PdV has.
Greg Russell
Roar Guru
There's a guy called Paul Cully who has been writing excellent form assessments at the (Australian) rugbyheaven site. He is an astute analyst and the poor guy seems to have watched every single Super 15 match. At the end of the round-robin he nominated his 30-man squads for all of the SANZAR countries. His back-3 selections for New Zealand were Muliaina, Sivivatu, Dagg and Toeava (the latter 2 obviously subject to fitness). Note that he only selected 4, because he's convinced - I think correctly - that teams will go for a 17/13 split, which leaves only 10 places for positions 10-15 once 3 HBs have been chosen. Anyway, the above 4 are all wonderful players. But what struck me as curious is that at the same time as leaving out Guildford, Cully did choose him in his "team of the tournament". How could Guildford be in the top 22 across 3 countries but not the top 30 for one? This got me thinking about other back-3 players Cully couldn't find room for in his NZ squad of 30: Jane, Ranger, Gear, Rokocoko, Ben Smith, Maitland. So that's at least 11 wonderful back-3 players, about all of whom you could make a strong, almost undeniable case for inclusion, and all of whom would be stars in almost any other country. One has to admire this depth of talent. But only 5 at most can be selected for the World Cup.
jokerman
Guest
Sweet as Sam, thanks.