Only four nations can win the Rugby World Cup

By David Lord / Expert

All Blacks coach Graham Henry is sitting in the box seat with all the momentum and the stat running for him leading into the Rugby World Cup. Just as well. Talk to any Kiwi and it would be total devastation to lose the Rugby World Cup (RWC) on home soil.

The only RWC the men in black have won was the inaugural decider in 1987 at Eden Park, thumping France 29-9, and scoring three tries to one.

This seventh edition will be played in the Shaky Isles kicking off September 9, with the final on October 23 at Eden Park.

The Park is an acknowledged All Black fortress, unbeaten in their last 10 internationals there on the Henry watch.

More importantly, winning 39 of 42 home games under Henry, the only losses being:

* To the Boks 30-28 at Carisbrooke in June 2008.
* To France 27-22 at Carisbrooke in June 2009.
* And to the Boks 32-29 at Hamilton in September 2009.

That’s a whopping 92.9% success rate. That’s mighty impressive, and with every RWC game at home, that’s why the All Blacks are $1.84 with Betfair to win their second RWC, the Wallabies $4.90 to win their third, the Boks $8.00 to win their third, and England $14.00 to win their second.

Forget the rest.

Only four nations can win the Holy Grail.

And you can probably forget England as well. With three top administrators resigning in a World Cup year, that’s serious in-house damage, let alone the bone-headed decision to play some of their Pool games in black, which can only be regarded as an insult, and showing no respect, to their hosts.

Even though England coach Martin Johnson normally doesn’t take any prisoners, he hasn’t said anything publicly – yet. But he must be seething that his bosses are destabilising his team just 41 days out from the RWC.

My mail is that not one Englishman is prepared to wear black as against their traditional white. They will be collectively embarrassed, even more so when the Kiwi supporters give them a piece of their mind.

And they won’t miss.

So can the All Blacks and Wallabies miss making the RWC final?

Highly unlikely, unless there are a couple of Pool games that upset the seeds and the cross-overs to the quarters.

As it sits, the All Blacks and Boks to meet in one semi, the Wallabies and England in the other.

So tomorrow week at Eden Park looms as the only full-dress rehearsal before October 23.

Graham Henry has the fortress on his side – rock solid. Robbie Deans knows the Wallabies haven’t won at Eden Park since 1986, when Alan Jones’ side was successful 22-6 to regain the Bledisloe Cup.

It’s a mountain to climb for the men in gold, but that’s what is required to regain the William Webb Ellis Trophy.

The Crowd Says:

2011-07-31T04:31:06+00:00

west

Guest


Thats Great!!! good call Comet but truth is were bankrupt long before the rugby world cup brother. but yea rugby is important we go around head butting our children for losing there games and mourn for weeks or years if we lose our economy actually does weaken when we lose a game of rugby... players amputate broken fingers to play this sport. God help us if we lose this one lord knows what will become of us.

2011-07-30T10:33:58+00:00

Comet

Guest


New Zealand will win. Any country willing to bankrupt their whole economy just to win a sporting event has to be favourites.

2011-07-30T00:02:28+00:00

Naki

Guest


Australia with Ease

2011-07-29T23:39:30+00:00

kovana

Guest


Arent Ireland Ranked 4th at the moment? Higher then both England and France?

2011-07-29T22:09:58+00:00

ChrisT

Guest


Thanks for your response Zac. I guess the problem comes in interpretation of ‘strong sports opinion’ as opposed to contrary. I think for most of us strong opinion should have certain characteristics such as originality with reasoned qualification, none of which this has. I don’t care that I don’t agree with David Lord, I care that too often I think he is posting purely to get a response. I care that anyone gets rewarded for that and I care that they are labelled ‘expert’. Maybe I should just care less - but if we do that the site suffers.

2011-07-29T20:35:25+00:00

KingsofCommentary

Roar Guru


Only 3 nations. NZ, Aussie and S.A. There's nothing about England right now that warrants mention as a genuine contender.

2011-07-29T19:46:07+00:00

Tom

Guest


Also in the Six Nations, Ireland only just beat Italy with a last gasp penalty, and England completely thrashed Italy something like 59-13.

2011-07-29T18:29:44+00:00

Ben S

Roar Guru


I'm don't doubt for one second that Ireland have a quality side, but it's pretty specious to suggest that because they beat England, who beat Australia, that they therefore have a very good chance of beating Australia. I think Ireland can, and might, beat Australia, but not because they beat England. That England side was totally different in style and composition to the side that beat Australia.

2011-07-29T18:03:08+00:00

Ben S

Roar Guru


Three srcum penalty tries last season suggest you're wrong.

2011-07-29T15:13:35+00:00

Aisea T. Tuikolovatu

Guest


Flying Horse, I am a Wallaby fan because I have 8 of my cousins playing for them. Where your family play? What do you know about rugby? What do you know about scrummaging? Are you disputing that there is a proper way to bind in the scrum? May be you should stick to netball.

2011-07-29T13:26:01+00:00

Ian Noble

Guest


This a tournament and as proven before, previous form is largely irrelevant to the success of any team. There will be surprises as some squads will have the first chance to spend serious time together. Ok Samoa beat the a weakened Wallabies side recently and under normal conditions it would be a one off win. However their squad is made up of professional rugby players who will probably only get better as they spend time together. The majority of the pool games will pretty fierce and I have a feeling that if the preceived top teams are not on their game, they could get turned over. The pool I think with SA, Wales, Fiji and Samoa looks interesting, remember Fiji nearly beat SA in RWC2007. The opportunity for more players to gain experience in the top club and provincial competitions means they are better players, will not be afraid of the tournament and are used to playing in front of big crowds, bigger crowds than the ground capacities in NZ. It will be a cracking RWC and whilst I hope England do well, I am particularly looking forward to some serious surprises. It it happens it will be for the benefit of the game worldwide and give other emerging nations particularly those in Europe, Russia, Spain and Portugal, the incentive that with more investment and better organisation they will compete as equals.

2011-07-29T13:04:05+00:00

Frenchy

Guest


In Australia in 2003 we had 30,000 England fans in Sydney, which would fill half of Eden Park. We will definitely have the biggest travelling support of any team there with the exception of Australia. And in any case, it isn't how many of you there are, it is how loud you shout! Everyone knows the English have the most loyal and committed fan base, just look at the last ashes in Australia, the Barmy Army made more noise in the MCG than 80,000 Aussies put together. Look at England v France in the 2003 world cup, we outnumbered the French fans 3 to 1. Expect more of the same in NZ. Question, who would NZ support in a semi final between Australia and England?

2011-07-29T12:32:29+00:00

AxMelb

Guest


Ok fair enough. I suppose my point was that England beat, Aus, and Ireland beat England. I am really just highlighting the point that Ireland are going into this WC in a good place, as are England. But since you bring it up - Ireland were also missing that day - Kearney, Flannery, Fitzgerald and Ferris (now ferris and flannery may not get back in the side) . This is the first time that Ireland have prob 25 first team players. Which is what you need to progress to the latter stages

2011-07-29T12:24:54+00:00

Fernando Marzano

Guest


Hello King, Hernandez's last game was three months ago, 15 more days to be ready to begin practicing with his fellow rugby. For us is more than QC as this has good replacement in Gitteau or Barnes, I would say is as important as Carter in the ABs, because Graham Henry does not have a replacement the same level. Pumas are very well physically, have performed as well as 4 years ago a lot of preparation in Pensacola USA, and have now started work with the ball. What kills Argentina is the lack of competition, with only 6 or 7 test-match a year can not make many conclusions. We have very good players and some high-impact and unknown to the world as Creevy (hooker) Cabello Farias (6-7-4), Figallo (prop 1-3), Gurruchaga Rodriguez (15/10/12), Gonzalez Amorosino (15-11) and Imhoff (14-11), which should be added the already known as Fernandez Lobbe, Albacete, Contepomi, Agulla, Roncero, Scelzo, and Hernandez. The Coach Phelan is still a mystery to us, as he has had during a very short time to train players, 80% of them play in England and France, and hopefully this time we can repeat some what we did in 2007. No doubt that Argentina's participation in 4-Nation in 2012 will be very important. Cheers and good luck in the Tri-Nations, the Wallabies always follow, because I like their style of play and its people. Fernando - Córdoba - Argentina

2011-07-29T12:15:45+00:00

Green Lanterm

Guest


Doesnt matter Jerry....We know how to win World Cups. Bill is rightfully ours

2011-07-29T11:46:49+00:00

dc

Guest


The biggest risk for the ABs this time round is the semi-final. Surely thats logical. The biggest challenge for Australia is to win three knock-out games in a row. The Boks face their biggest hurdle with an unpredictable coach and some old and unfit players. the dark horses are those with nothing to lose - England, Ireland....

2011-07-29T11:22:51+00:00

Ben S

Roar Guru


'- This is the same England team that walloped the Wallabies in November (and also beat Aus in Sydney last June)' Strictly speaking it was quite a different side. Sheridan, Lawes, Croft, Moody and Tindall were all absent in Dublin.

2011-07-29T11:18:57+00:00

Ben S

Roar Guru


'Those silly, pompous, ignorant fools have no idea of the ridicule, scorn & venom they will receive…..!!' Who, Nike?

2011-07-29T11:15:50+00:00

Ben S

Roar Guru


'I was in France for 2007. It took me 3 pool games to realise that the beer was non-alcoholic!' That is a classic.

2011-07-29T10:37:30+00:00

Frenchy

Guest


I agree, it is a bit of a shame that they have opted for Black, especially in NZ. Traditionally they would have gone with a red change strip, although I can appreciate that the black will probably look pretty cool and will sell very well. Important to remember it is only a change strip and will only be worn when there is a colour clash (e.g. against Argentina). So we will probably only see it worn once during the tournament. They will probably choose another colour next year anyway, they keep changing it!

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