Only four nations can win the Rugby World Cup
Columnist By David Lord, 29 Jul 2011 David Lord is a Roar Expert
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- All Blacks, Graham Henry, Martin Johnson, Rugby World Cup
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All Blacks coach Graham Henry is sitting in the box seat with all the momentum and the stat running for him leading into the Rugby World Cup. Just as well. Talk to any Kiwi and it would be total devastation to lose the Rugby World Cup (RWC) on home soil.
The only RWC the men in black have won was the inaugural decider in 1987 at Eden Park, thumping France 29-9, and scoring three tries to one.
This seventh edition will be played in the Shaky Isles kicking off September 9, with the final on October 23 at Eden Park.
The Park is an acknowledged All Black fortress, unbeaten in their last 10 internationals there on the Henry watch.
More importantly, winning 39 of 42 home games under Henry, the only losses being:
* To the Boks 30-28 at Carisbrooke in June 2008.
* To France 27-22 at Carisbrooke in June 2009.
* And to the Boks 32-29 at Hamilton in September 2009.
That’s a whopping 92.9% success rate. That’s mighty impressive, and with every RWC game at home, that’s why the All Blacks are $1.84 with Betfair to win their second RWC, the Wallabies $4.90 to win their third, the Boks $8.00 to win their third, and England $14.00 to win their second.
Forget the rest.
Only four nations can win the Holy Grail.
And you can probably forget England as well. With three top administrators resigning in a World Cup year, that’s serious in-house damage, let alone the bone-headed decision to play some of their Pool games in black, which can only be regarded as an insult, and showing no respect, to their hosts.
Even though England coach Martin Johnson normally doesn’t take any prisoners, he hasn’t said anything publicly – yet. But he must be seething that his bosses are destabilising his team just 41 days out from the RWC.
My mail is that not one Englishman is prepared to wear black as against their traditional white. They will be collectively embarrassed, even more so when the Kiwi supporters give them a piece of their mind.
And they won’t miss.
So can the All Blacks and Wallabies miss making the RWC final?
Highly unlikely, unless there are a couple of Pool games that upset the seeds and the cross-overs to the quarters.
As it sits, the All Blacks and Boks to meet in one semi, the Wallabies and England in the other.
So tomorrow week at Eden Park looms as the only full-dress rehearsal before October 23.
Graham Henry has the fortress on his side – rock solid. Robbie Deans knows the Wallabies haven’t won at Eden Park since 1986, when Alan Jones’ side was successful 22-6 to regain the Bledisloe Cup.
It’s a mountain to climb for the men in gold, but that’s what is required to regain the William Webb Ellis Trophy.
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- All Blacks, Graham Henry, Martin Johnson, Rugby World Cup
July 29th 2011 @ 2:48am
Frank O'Keeffe said | July 29th 2011 @ 2:48am | Report comment
I would not discard England as a chance to win the World Cup. They dominated Australia last year in England, and in particular their halves played very well. I’m actually a huge fan of Toby Flood and regard him as one of the more underrated players in the world.
I can definitely see Australia not making the final.
Australia’s scrum is my biggest concern. I can see the bigger packs – New Zealand, France, England, dominating them. The Welsh dominated the Aussie scrum last year as well. I can’t see South Africa’s scrum giving Australia any trouble so long as John Smit plays. He needs to be cut-out like cancer. But as games get tighter the more Australia’s forwards need to step up.
New Zealand really should win the World Cup. How can they not? The Franks brothers are scrumming awesome, Brad Thorn is still as his last name suggests, Kieran Reid is as good as any player in the world, McCaw’s as good as any player to play the game, Carter and SBW etc. They look the best on paper, by far. And they have an awesome, awesome coach.
As far as Eden Park goes…
Every time the Wallabies play there I get excited. I really do. It’s a huge mountain they can’t climb. They really should have won there in 2009. I regard many of New Zealand’s performances against Australia from 1998-2002 when Australia held the Bledisloe Cup as far superior to their effort in 2009, but the Wallabies blew it.
You know each time they go there they’ll probably lose, but if there’s one place in the world to win at, it’s there. Why is it such a fortress? Why Auckland? Why isn’t Wellington their fortress? Who knows? But it’s exciting to think there’s even an outside chance the Wallabies could break the streak.
Look how incredibly well they had to play in 1986 to win there – one of the greatest defensive efforts in Australian rugby history. That and nothing less and Australia would not have won.
July 29th 2011 @ 4:11am
Aisea T. Tuikolovatu said | July 29th 2011 @ 4:11am | Report comment
Frank O,
I just wish to remind you that scrummaging is only a small part of the rugby match. You also look at how young and the amount of experience the Wallaby players were in 2010. They say that one year is a long time.
Different players now with different attitudes. The All Blacks should be more worried than you.
SBW, Carter, Read, McCaw, Thorn, Franks, couldn’t prove anything against the Reds twice this year. What makes you think that it will be different now?
I should not be surprised because you’re just a typical ABs fan!
July 29th 2011 @ 6:17am
Frank O'Keeffe said | July 29th 2011 @ 6:17am | Report comment
I hate the All Blacks.
The scrum is a huge part of the game. The worst thing about the Wallabies from 2005-2007, and even before that, is whenever the opposition team would knock the ball on, it was likely the Wallabies would give away a scrum penalty. It felt like every time the opposition knocked the ball on they’d get a penalty!
The Wallabies need to make sure what England did to them in 2007 never happens again. A lot of what the Wallabies accomplished in 2007 was smoke and mirrors in the sense that they didn’t to the tough stuff.
The Wallabies scrum exerted no pressure on Samoa. That’s a worry. They improved a lot against South Africa, but South Africa are a poor side.
And the Crusaders played fantastically well (to borrow Schumacher’s phraseology) in the Super 15 Final. I will thrilled the Reds won. The better team won. The more deserving team won. But the Crusaders were brilliant, and dominated most of that game. The Reds just have that amazing ability to score off a few opportunities.
July 29th 2011 @ 8:42am
Grimmace said | July 29th 2011 @ 8:42am | Report comment
SA may have been a poor side, but I recon the Saffa tight 5 were all in top form during the S15. And yes, the scrum is hugely important.
July 29th 2011 @ 8:44am
Jerry said | July 29th 2011 @ 8:44am | Report comment
Not if P Divvy insists on picking J Smitty…
July 29th 2011 @ 3:37pm
Aisea T. Tuikolovatu said | July 29th 2011 @ 3:37pm | Report comment
Frank O,
Some day soon you will be convinced that Aussie scrum even at a very young age can stand up to the big dogs. They won’t dominate but can win their own ball.
Most of the referee management in the scrums when Aussie is involved, the referees are predetermined that whenever there is a problem at the scrum it is got to be Aussie.
I watched the same match Aussie vs England you’re referring to last year when the scrum keeps collapsing and Aussie gets penalised every single time. However, it was as clear as day when the England’s loosehead prop illegally pulling down on the Aussie’s tighthead’s arm when he supposed to bind on the back.
It is unbelievable that neither the referee nor the assitant picks it up. I invite you and the match officials that day to go and review that match and come back with a report. If I was their referee coach (which I am a referee coach) those MOs won’t get another appoinment until they get it right.
July 29th 2011 @ 5:27pm
flying hori said | July 29th 2011 @ 5:27pm | Report comment
Tuikoko, your 1 eyed boy! typical wannabie fan! get the glasses off, your scrum is weak and will always be weak
July 30th 2011 @ 1:13am
Aisea T. Tuikolovatu said | July 30th 2011 @ 1:13am | Report comment
Flying Horse,
I am a Wallaby fan because I have 8 of my cousins playing for them. Where your family play? What do you know about rugby? What do you know about scrummaging?
Are you disputing that there is a proper way to bind in the scrum? May be you should stick to netball.
July 30th 2011 @ 4:03am
Ben S said | July 30th 2011 @ 4:03am | Report comment
Three srcum penalty tries last season suggest you’re wrong.
July 29th 2011 @ 6:34am
Bayboy said | July 29th 2011 @ 6:34am | Report comment
I think your serious deluded if you believe two very narrow loses played in Brisbane one on the back of an extremely dubious reffing performance by a home town ref and the other on the back of over 100,00km in travel during the season the players you mentioned did not prove anything.
If either of those games had been played in NZ the Reds would have been well and truly spanked and deep down you know it. Next year the Reds won’t have it so easy having to face all the top teams bar the Stormers away from home.
July 29th 2011 @ 7:53am
Jiggles said | July 29th 2011 @ 7:53am | Report comment
If the crusaders or any team that doesnt play the reds at home next year win, it won’t count as they haven’t played the reds at home…
July 29th 2011 @ 8:42am
Jerry said | July 29th 2011 @ 8:42am | Report comment
While the whole “Didn’t play the Crusaders at home” thing is getting pretty old, there is some merit in the argument that the Reds had a very favourable draw and the Crusaders a pretty poor one. Swings and roundabouts, though.
I don’t subscribe to the idea that the Reds only got home cause of their draw, but equally I don’t view them as a world beating dynasty just yet.
July 29th 2011 @ 9:03am
Jiggles said | July 29th 2011 @ 9:03am | Report comment
The luck of the draw is just that, the luck of the draw. I also can’t stand the word dynasty used in sport, it’s so American. The reds have a very talented young squad, but there have been far more talented squads that have gone on to do a lot less after initial success, so as far as I can see next year is a new season where everyone is back to square one.
July 29th 2011 @ 9:21am
Jerry said | July 29th 2011 @ 9:21am | Report comment
Except the Hurricanes, they’re back to square negative 1.
July 29th 2011 @ 9:30am
Jiggles said | July 29th 2011 @ 9:30am | Report comment
and the Brumbies, square -15
July 29th 2011 @ 8:35am
Funk said | July 29th 2011 @ 8:35am | Report comment
Their 100,000km trip coud have been cut down by at least 38,000km if they didn’t decide to play at twickers.
The could have played at Suncorp instead and cut out 33,000kms and got the same crowd numbers (there is a s**t load of you kiwis in Brisbane…can’t chuck a rock with out hitting one…or is it just good aim hmmmm?).
July 29th 2011 @ 7:17am
Rugbydog said | July 29th 2011 @ 7:17am | Report comment
Hasn’t past experiences taught you anything asiea? You can not judge international rugby based on super rugby. Look at the boks last year, had two teams in the final bulls were amazing knocking over all the best teams, matfield and co dominating then come tri nations they were kaka.
I’m not saying in anyway oz are going to be kaka just don’t delude yourself in think reds had a great season now oz are going to be great. Look what happened against Samoa.
July 29th 2011 @ 2:51am
niwdEyaJ said | July 29th 2011 @ 2:51am | Report comment
You’re going to get some really angry Poms with something to say about that… cue Ben S
July 29th 2011 @ 3:05am
Ben S said | July 29th 2011 @ 3:05am | Report comment
You’d have to be very silly to get angry over something like this. I leave that to the lunatic fringe like we can see on the various NZ v Australia threads.
July 29th 2011 @ 8:21am
The Bush said | July 29th 2011 @ 8:21am | Report comment
“lunatic fringe”
How can it be a “fringe” when it appears to be the majority?
July 29th 2011 @ 7:55pm
Suzy Poison said | July 29th 2011 @ 7:55pm | Report comment
Agree I think it will be an All Black England final. Australia are making the same mistake as per usual, no scrum to speak of.
July 29th 2011 @ 2:55am
Ben S said | July 29th 2011 @ 2:55am | Report comment
‘And you can probably forget England as well. With three top administrators resigning in a World Cup year, that’s serious in-house damage, let alone the bone-headed decision to play some of their Pool games in black, which can only be regarded as an insult, and showing no respect, to their hosts.’
England can be ruled out because a) three administrators who have no impact or connection to any of the coaching staff or players have resigned, and b) because they might play a game in black?
The mind boggles… I hope any fee collected from this ‘article’ has been donated to charity.
July 29th 2011 @ 2:57am
Frank O'Keeffe said | July 29th 2011 @ 2:57am | Report comment
Ben S, how do you rate Toby Flood as a player? I reckon he’s the goods.
July 29th 2011 @ 3:07am
Ben S said | July 29th 2011 @ 3:07am | Report comment
Good passing game, good vision, makes breaks, very good off-loading game. Is generally a very reliable kicker, both off the tee and in general play, but had a few problems with that part of his game in the 6N. I really rate him, Frank. I think because he doesn’t goose step like Quade Cooper, or appear that he’s doing a huge amount that people think he doesn’t do much. For me he is a very clever 10 who will get far more out of an England backline than Wilkinson. He’s got time on the ball, and that’s the mark of quality.
July 29th 2011 @ 3:22am
GrecoRoman said | July 29th 2011 @ 3:22am | Report comment
I’m really hanging out to see this black strip they are playing in. If it’s like the new Liverpool away kit I’d be tempted to shell out for a jersey. All this hype – even Jonah Lomu has had a go at it. Can’t wait.
England – big problems in the centres, big problems.
July 29th 2011 @ 3:27am
Ben S said | July 29th 2011 @ 3:27am | Report comment
England have a small back five of the scrum, and a small back three. They need two big men in the middle.
July 29th 2011 @ 3:38am
GrecoRoman said | July 29th 2011 @ 3:38am | Report comment
Which is why Flood’s kicking game is going to be more important than his passing game cos I can’t see too much midfield penetration or tactical variety coming from the plodders you’ve got there.
July 29th 2011 @ 3:43am
Ben S said | July 29th 2011 @ 3:43am | Report comment
A lot of people miss the point with Hape and Tindall. As I said before, England need size in the midfield. Hape and Tindall are strong defenders, and they commit men on attack. They get over the gainline and are both adept at off-loading (rather than looking for that wide pass). If England played two twinkle toes players at 12 and 13 they would get royally turned over. Hape and Tindall are there to do a specific job, and they generally do it quite well. In terms of attack, over the past season England have easily created the greatest amount of breaks in the NH. A lot of that is down to the quick ball they get from Hape and Tindall.
July 29th 2011 @ 7:24am
Jiggles said | July 29th 2011 @ 7:24am | Report comment
Grecco people dismiss the English mid-field yet applaud our own from last weekend which performed the exact same role. The difference is England have been doing it longer, and are more effective. England are a very good side and they are my second favourites.
July 29th 2011 @ 9:01am
Tissot Time said | July 29th 2011 @ 9:01am | Report comment
Greco Jonah also said in Singapore this week that his smokey for the RWC was Ireland and that if they get it together like they did against England last year they would also be in the running. I do believe they are in the same pool as Australia.
July 29th 2011 @ 4:27am
Viscount Crouchback said | July 29th 2011 @ 4:27am | Report comment
All true, Ben, but will Flood make the clutch kicks like Wilkinson? His lamentable performances from the kicking tee in key games against Ireland, Leinster and Saracens do not bode well for the RWC.
July 29th 2011 @ 4:54am
Ben S said | July 29th 2011 @ 4:54am | Report comment
True, VC, but his kicking has been bad from a certain point onwards, and that has been linked to his style/injury, no? I can’t recall specifically. Also, Wilkinson has missed quite a few sitters since he’s been understudy to Flood. I don’t think we can rely on him as we once could.
July 29th 2011 @ 8:26am
ChrisT said | July 29th 2011 @ 8:26am | Report comment
Ben, have to disagree with your comment about Hape and Tindall being adept at off loading. Hape has done it a couple of times and no more. Tindall’s distribution from 15 inches to 15 metres is just shocking. Defence is decent but without any real guile to their play the crash ball is pretty much thier only ineffective weapon. Foden, Cueto and Ashton only ever look dangerous from broken play, returning ball or tracking breaking forwards. Compare that to the service players like Gear get. Lets face it – we have what we have at centre because we lack alternatives.
July 29th 2011 @ 7:18pm
Ben S said | July 29th 2011 @ 7:18pm | Report comment
If you watch Hape closely, Chris, he looks to off-load a lot – as most rugby league players do. He doesn’t always do it, however, as there isn’t always support. Tindall’s passing is disgraceful – agreed, but he can chuck a ball out of a tackle.
Defensively Hape made an error against Wales, and had a poor debut against Australia, but other than that he has been strong. He was ferocious against SA, and against France you could see the French were very reluctant to run down his channel.
I thought it informative to read Will Greenwood say that he thought Hape would be an excellent foil for O’Driscoll.
I think we have options (Waldouck, Lowe, Clarke, Trinder), but none whom are big enough. Johnson could try others, but I think Hape-Tindall are vital to England. Long term I’d be happy to see Tuilagi at 13, or maybe Trinder.
July 29th 2011 @ 8:50am
B-Rock said | July 29th 2011 @ 8:50am | Report comment
Agreed Ben S – admin staff, uniforms etc wont affect the outcome – very dubious analysis in this article. Having a strong admin structure is important over the long term but a couple of months out from the world cup it has zero impact on the field.
I certainly wouldnt rule England out, I am shocked that they are ranked (by the bookies) below the Boks by such a margin – I actually believe England are a better chance than SA to win, with Aus marginally ahead of England. In reality, Aus, SA and England need the ABs to capitulate (again) to be any real chance.
July 29th 2011 @ 11:57am
Terry Kidd said | July 29th 2011 @ 11:57am | Report comment
Ben, what do you think of the black jersey? I have no insight or knowledge of what the players think but my own opinion would be that I would be disappointed not to wear the all white, knowing that I had worked my butt off to get there … and yes, I would feel some embarrassment at wearing an all black jersey in NZ.
How would you feel about it Ben and do you have any news on how the players feel about it?
July 29th 2011 @ 7:21pm
Ben S said | July 29th 2011 @ 7:21pm | Report comment
I personally don’t really care about the black jersey, Terry. It’s clearly a marketing ploy by Nike, and I am assuming that England will only wear it on one or two occasions. I wish we had two colours for home and away. I hate to think that we’re going down the soccer route with new away kits every season.
Don’t know what the players think, mate. I’d suggest they’re not that fussed. Equally, if we think about the squabbles in the RFU I doubt the vast majority of the players even know the names of the people who resigned.
July 29th 2011 @ 8:37pm
Frenchy said | July 29th 2011 @ 8:37pm | Report comment
I agree, it is a bit of a shame that they have opted for Black, especially in NZ. Traditionally they would have gone with a red change strip, although I can appreciate that the black will probably look pretty cool and will sell very well.
Important to remember it is only a change strip and will only be worn when there is a colour clash (e.g. against Argentina). So we will probably only see it worn once during the tournament. They will probably choose another colour next year anyway, they keep changing it!
July 29th 2011 @ 3:11am
Nicksa said | July 29th 2011 @ 3:11am | Report comment
if boks have juan smith and brussow fit, i believe the boks will be a huge threat…
July 29th 2011 @ 3:13am
Ben S said | July 29th 2011 @ 3:13am | Report comment
I think Brussow would really aid a player like Butch James. He has to start IMO. If Morne Steyn starts then bye bye Bill.
July 29th 2011 @ 5:03am
Nicksa said | July 29th 2011 @ 5:03am | Report comment
why??
morne steyn is a fantastic flyhalf when his pack his dominating…
July 29th 2011 @ 7:23pm
Ben S said | July 29th 2011 @ 7:23pm | Report comment
‘why??
morne steyn is a fantastic flyhalf when his pack his dominating…’
He’s a kicker, and that is all, and if he stood any deeper he’d be in China. He makes South Africa predictable.
July 29th 2011 @ 7:20am
Rugbydog said | July 29th 2011 @ 7:20am | Report comment
That’s if brussow is still as effective. Remember he hasn’t played in a very very long time and the break down rules have changed since his absent.
July 29th 2011 @ 11:12am
jeznez said | July 29th 2011 @ 11:12am | Report comment
he got a couple of games during the season and didn’t miss a beat – was instrumental in the Cheetahs beating the Tahs this year. Is a player I am very worried about
July 29th 2011 @ 6:17pm
Nicksa said | July 29th 2011 @ 6:17pm | Report comment
rugbydog
brussow is our richie, together with juan smith they are the best flank combination in the world.
Mark my works, if those 2 are fit and on form south africa is going to be VERY dangerous.
The only worry i have about the boks is the scrum, it has been suffering for quite a while and if it is not up to scratch it will cost them.
The boks play off strong set pieces with guys like brussow and juan smith winning the break down, goal kickers like morne steyn and frans steyn u land up with a team that is very tough.
Not the most ‘entertaining’ rugby but very effective rugby.
On the rugby365 site all the south african fans are whining about how screwed the boks are.
Complaining how they need game time yet 3 weeks ago they were complaining about to much rugby.
Pdv is no orator but he has won in nz, b&i lion, tri nations and gained the number 1 ranking briefly.
If he wins the world cup he will be far more successful than jake white.
Then there is the argument about not being the best all the time.
realistically speaking the all blacks are a great team and its always going to be up and down with the 2 great foes.
2008: all blacks won
2009: boks won
2010:all blacks won
2011: if boks win the world cup we can say boks came out on top as it is the ultimate prize and def worth losing a few games.
July 29th 2011 @ 7:53pm
Suzy Poison said | July 29th 2011 @ 7:53pm | Report comment
Juan Smith is almost certainly not going to make it. The injury is taking longer to heal, than was thought. Brussouw is still sitting in his blazer in the crowds…..not holding out too much hope.
Agree our WC chances depend on Brussouw, without him, we are toast…..and I can smell burning.
July 29th 2011 @ 3:36am
Johnno said | July 29th 2011 @ 3:36am | Report comment
What about 6’7 matt Banagahan and one of the Tuilagi brothers they are both massive men. Matt Banagahan is as big as Bakkies Botha who is 6’7 , and SBW is only a large 6’3. iIwould not like Berrick barnes or JOC , or Patt Mcabe 6’1, or Matt Gitaeu marking Matt Banaghan or SBW.
Luckily The big french centre didn’t make the World Cup squad.
It seems like size is the current in thing for an I/C in world rugby at the moment. There has been rumours Scott Higgenbotham will be looked at as the wallaby I/C. i think the wallabies have big problems, in the centrea a lack of size.
Give the big western force centre a start maybe Pat his name is I think. Maybe we will need Samo orTimani in the centres haha if they can’t get a spot in the forwads, joking on that one. But a young Radike Samo was a exceptionally fast for a rugby forwad like Scott Higgenbotham is currently, and Pierre spies and Nick Coster form south africa are very fast forwads, who have played in the backs before.
July 29th 2011 @ 4:05pm
Fat Prop Too said | July 29th 2011 @ 4:05pm | Report comment
Here we go again, obsession with the size of the player. Its about technique people, JOC and Barnes have tackling technique down to an art, I am yet to see either of then steam rolled.
I bet if you had a JOC in your side, all of a sudden size would not be so important.
Anyone else here recall JOC dropping Matfield and CJ in the same game
I sorry guys, size isn’t everything…
(I keep telling myself that)
July 29th 2011 @ 5:20am
Justin K2 said | July 29th 2011 @ 5:20am | Report comment
As a Kiwi I agree that SA, Oz & Eng will be tough as normal, but you cannot discount other teams like France and Ireland. They will be just some of the teams to watch out for this world cup and I’m sure a few upsets will be in order. Some of us Kiwis aren’t counting our chickens as anything can happen. All it would take is for us is to lose a few of our top players and we will be in serious strife. Anything can happen and if we are to win I’ll be the happiest man on Earth after soo many years of pain!!!, but if we are to lose then so be it. There wouldn’t be much I could do about it apart from taking out my frustrations on the rugby pitch. Life will move on again with the usual Ozzies, Saffas and Poms laughing and poking jibes at us for another 4 years. Even after all these years and losing soo many world cups people still take great delight in seeing the All Blacks fail. I was at that 1/4 final in Wales 2007 and even though I was bitterly disappointed I shook hands with as many French that I could see and they were apologetic towards me?!? I told them to shut up and said the better team won and that was that. I ended up having a quite a good night out on the town, but once back in the hotel in bed I couldn’t get the game out of my head and was reliving it over and over. I work in the UK with a few Poms and leading up to the world cup they keep reminding me that they are looking forward to the All Blacks failing yet again. I’ll just keep quiet as usual, but God help them if we do win.
July 29th 2011 @ 11:52am
thurl said | July 29th 2011 @ 11:52am | Report comment
You can’t discount Ireland and france for an upset win in the pool games or QFs. But three upsets in a row which is what they will need to do win a final is a bit beyond them
July 29th 2011 @ 4:07pm
snowman said | July 29th 2011 @ 4:07pm | Report comment
What about Samoa – one upset already
July 29th 2011 @ 5:47am
Dave said | July 29th 2011 @ 5:47am | Report comment
It would be silly to write the French off, they are always competitive at world cups. It’s almost a rule that they will upset someone at some point.
Ireland could even be an outside chance, but only if they somehow managed to avoid NZ and RSA who will just run them over.
Personally I hope Argentina have another good run, need Hernandez back though.
Samoa for the quarters!
July 29th 2011 @ 6:04am
DanSA said | July 29th 2011 @ 6:04am | Report comment
The ABs should take this one, if they can figure out who their strongest team is, which is probably one of the only two real issues they have, the other being coping with the pressure of the RWC being played in NZ. The Aussies are looking very good as well, however until the TN test it’s difficult to say how good the are. I think England might be half baked in some of their combinations, specifically centres. Even though Banahan and Tuilangi looks promising they’ve not played together yet, so it’s a big ask. SA is currently nowhere and unless a miracle (hopefully Rassie Erasmus) happens I think we’ll probably go out in the semis.
July 29th 2011 @ 6:53am
Moaman said | July 29th 2011 @ 6:53am | Report comment
DAN/RSA are the team I fear the most,,,,,(notwithstanding their cuckoo coach.) “…who their strongest team is”<——–I think it is more a case of 'horses for courses' with the NZ squad-they can afford to mix and match depending on the opposition/tactics of the day.Naturally this lessens the 'continuity' factor but has obvious advantages too.
Justin K2 I see schadenfreude still thrives in various places.Your sporting attitude does you credit and the fact you could still have a reasonable night out after that loss was the payoff.What else can we kiwis do but grin and bear it? You can't win arguments with plonkers.merely descend to their level.
July 29th 2011 @ 6:40am
Bayboy said | July 29th 2011 @ 6:40am | Report comment
I think this article is missing the amount of support some of the teams that aren’t mentioned in this article will get.
You can not discount support, which can lift a team another few notches as well as unsettle their opponents.
The Pacific Island teams who are basically playing at home and will have huge support not only from the pacific island community but the whole of New Zealand and I dare say our ANZAC brethren across the ditch.
Scotland and Ireland will again also get mammoth support here in New Zealand as many Kiwis feel a connection to these tow countries as they do Wales.
Everyone already knows poor England is not well liked on the sporting stage and apart from travelling fans and ex pats the amount of support they get in NZ will be minimal.
July 29th 2011 @ 8:24am
Mals said | July 29th 2011 @ 8:24am | Report comment
Bayboy – the problem is England will have thousands of travelling fans so it won’t matter if they are nobodies 2nd team!!
July 29th 2011 @ 9:54am
Bayboy said | July 29th 2011 @ 9:54am | Report comment
Yes they may have thousands but highly unlikely they will fill the stadium, which will be more than likely filled by people cheering for anyone playing against the English
July 29th 2011 @ 11:04pm
Frenchy said | July 29th 2011 @ 11:04pm | Report comment
In Australia in 2003 we had 30,000 England fans in Sydney, which would fill half of Eden Park. We will definitely have the biggest travelling support of any team there with the exception of Australia. And in any case, it isn’t how many of you there are, it is how loud you shout!
Everyone knows the English have the most loyal and committed fan base, just look at the last ashes in Australia, the Barmy Army made more noise in the MCG than 80,000 Aussies put together. Look at England v France in the 2003 world cup, we outnumbered the French fans 3 to 1. Expect more of the same in NZ.
Question, who would NZ support in a semi final between Australia and England?
July 30th 2011 @ 10:02am
Naki said | July 30th 2011 @ 10:02am | Report comment
Australia with Ease
July 29th 2011 @ 8:31am
jeremy said | July 29th 2011 @ 8:31am | Report comment
Thanks for raising the point on the Pacific Islands – I was about to bring this up.
Both Fiji and Samoa can be considered genuine QF possibilities against Australia – and it only takes one point to win.
I can’t see Tonga getting past France, but it could happen.
July 29th 2011 @ 8:52am
Bayboy said | July 29th 2011 @ 8:52am | Report comment
By the support post above I do believe some of the teams omitted from the top four and well and truly capable of pulling off an upset come QF times and some of the big four may not even make it to the semis
July 29th 2011 @ 7:25am
Red Rooster said | July 29th 2011 @ 7:25am | Report comment
NZ, Australia, England – thats it. SA have the wrong game plan and as much as I would hope the French were in it I fear that the ability to win consecutively would be too much for them, they can cause an upset of course. The RWC will be sorted in the semis and final which is logical but i dont see tto many surprises prior to that