Statistics point to an All Black RWC victory

After this weekend there’s just one focus for Graham Henry, Robbie Deans, Peter de Villiers, Marc Lievremont, and Martin Johnson: the seventh Rugby World Cup, which kicks off at Eden Park on September 9.

It’s third biggest sporting event every four years to the Summer Olympic Games, and the Soccer World Cup.

Henry (All Blacks), Deans (Wallabies), de Villiers (Boks), Lievremont (France), and Johnson (England) coach the five highest ranked nations, in that order.

Not that there’s any iron-clad certainty they will be the best performed in New Zealand. But for the sake of this exercise, let’s assume it’s accurate, suggesting the world champion side will come from this quality quintet.

So how do they shape up against each other?

* Total caps of the 30-man squads – Boks 1,287, All Blacks 1,133, France 1,021, England 912, Wallabies 831.

* Average caps per player – Boks 42.9, All Blacks 37.77, France 34.03, England 30.40, Wallabies 27.70.

* Total ages of the 30-man squads – All Blacks 918, Boks 894, France 847, England 827, Wallabies 760.

* Average age per player – All Blacks 30.60, Boks 29.80, France 28.23, England 27.57, Wallabies 25.33.

On the score of experience and age, the Wallabies will be clearly out-gunned. But they have the exuberance of youth on their side, if that can be controlled.

The top three most capped from the five nations:

* 107 – Victor Matfield (Boks)

* 102 – John Smit (Boks)

* 97 – Richie McCaw (All Blacks)

* 97 – Mils Muliaina (All Blacks)

* 96 – Nathan Sharpe (Wallabies)

* 92 – Jonny Wilkinson (England)

* 85 – Keven Mealamu (All Blacks)

* 83 – Damien Traille (France)

* 74 – Bryan Habana (Boks)

* 71 – Mike Tindall (England)

* 70 – Imanol Harinordoquy (France)

* 68 – Rocky Elsom (Wallabies)

* 67 – Lewis Moody (England)

* 64 – Lionel Nallett (France)

* 59 – Stephen Moore (Wallabies)

The danger men:

* All Black fly-half Dan Carter is averaging a tick under 15 points a Test, giving the men-in-black a standup start, let alone his generalship around the park. Flanker Richie McCaw is the most successful international captain in world rugby, always leading tirelessly from the front.

* Wallaby flanker David Pocock is a supreme scavenger and defender, adept at upsetting his opponents momentum, forcing turnover ball to set his backs alight, with half Will Genia the outstanding play-maker, calling the shots with precision.

* Springbok fly-half Morne Steyn’s boot has been deadly during his career, at one stage slotting home 41 successive kicks at goal, a world record, erasing Scotland’s Chris Paterson’s 36. Champion lock Victor Matfield isn’t the captain, but he’s a great leader of a great pack – the Boks feeding off controlled possession.

* French skipper Thierry Dusautoir will shine as a non-stop flanker, but it’s the “old stager,” Imanol Harinordiquy, who will be the one to watch, depending on how much game time he receives from his coach.

* And England’s durable fly-half Jonny Wilkinson, about to play his fourth RWC, booted the men-in-white to win the championship in 2003, and played a major role in reaching the losing final to South Africa in 2007, averaging 13 points an international throughout his career. Losing first choice half-back Danny Care to a toe injury is a cruel blow, with much expected of stand-in Ben Youngs.

The leading career point-scorers on 2011 RWC duty:

* 1,219 – Dan Carter, the world record – 29 tries, 216 conversions, 211 penalties, and three drop goals from 82 Tests.

* 1,208 – Jonny Wilkinson – seven tries, 162 conversions, 248 penalties, and a world record 35 drop goals, from 92 Tests.

* 1,022 – Ronan O’Gara (Ireland) – 16 tries, 165 conversions, 189 penalties, and 15 drop goals. from 112 Tests.

* 942 – Stephen Jones (Wales) – 17 tries, 149 conversions, 196 penalties, and seven drop goals. from 106 Tests.

* 786 – Chris Paterson (Scotland) – 22 tries, 89 conversions, 160 penalties, and three drop goals, from 105 Tests.

* 147 – James O’Connor (Wallabies) – 11 tries, 22 conversions, and 16 penalties, from 30 Tests.

* 135 – Drew Mitchell (Wallabies) – 27 tries from 55 Tests.

The leading career try-scorers on 2011 RWC duty:

* 57 – Shane Williams (Wales) from 85 Tests.

* 45 – Brian O’Driscoll (Ireland) from 118 Tests.

* 38 – Bryan Habana (Springboks) from 74 Tests.

* 33 – Mils Muliaina (All Blacks) from 97 Tests.

* 30 – Jaque Fourie (Springboks) from 63 Tests.

* 29 – Dan Carter (All Blacks) from 82 Tests.

* 27 – Drew Mitchell (Wallabies), from 55 Tests.

The evidence is there for all to see, with the All Blacks ticking the vast majority of boxes.

But this is Rugby World Cup time when the men-in-black rarely live up to expectations, with just one win in 1987 and a losing final to the Boks in 1995.

The other four appearances were forgettable, a national disaster, a time for mourning.

What about 2011?