No doubt those at AFL House would have hoped that something significant would rest on the outcome of tonight’s match when the fixture was penned.
That scenario would have cued media and fans to declare the finals as having started one week early and give the AFL finals series a kick-start.
The fly in the ointment is that both Collingwood and Geelong have first and second spot all tied up, and know who they will face in next week’s Qualifying Finals.
Very little rests on the result of tonight’s match and it looms as the blockbuster that, well, isn’t.
“Mockbuster at the MCG” might be more appropriate.
Except that’s not entirely true. Had Geelong defeated Sydney last week, you could reasonably expect both sides to put the cue in the rack for tonight’s match and keep their powder dry for the finals.
But Sydney’s upset win at the Cats home ground last weekend has the doubters back out in force. Suddenly the Cats are too old, too slow and not able to match it with the other AFL heavyweights.
With the Swans shock win last week, tonight’s match suddenly takes on greater significance for the Cats side. Lose tonight, and Geelong will head into the finals on the back of two losses, and an uninspiring win against Adelaide in its past three games.
Winning finals is all about having momentum at the right time of year, and a loss tonight will see the Cats momentum grind to a standstill.
Simply put, Geelong must win tonight’s match if it is to seriously contend for this year’s AFL Premiership.
Collingwood, on the other hand, can drop tonight’s match and not have its premiership hopes take a beating. The Pies are deserved white hot premiership favourites, and have had their sights firmly focused on the finals for the past several months.
The Collingwood brains-trust will be content to make it through tonight’s match without any further injury concerns. Collingwood fans may even view a loss tonight as a good omen, having lost to the Hawks in the final round of last season before ultimately winning the Premiership.
Unlike the Magpies, the Cats do not have the luxury of taking it easy in tonight’s match.
While Collingwood looks to secure back-to-back premierships this year, Geelong is vying for its third premiership in five years. Should Geelong be successful in winning this year’s AFL Premiership, it will join the Brisbane side of the early part of the previous decade in discussions about the greatest team of all time.
Geelong has done remarkably well in securing second spot, with many experts predicting the Cats would slide down the ladder this season after last year’s humiliating preliminary final thrashing at the hands of the Mapgies.
But under first year coach Chris Scott the Cats have tread water and are well-placed to make a final surge at a premiership before rebuilding in the next few years.
Yes, even this awesome Cats side must surely realise that their time at the top cannot continue forever.
Tellingly, since the Cats won the 2007 AFL Premiership, the best new player to emerge and make a spot his own in the Cats side has been mature age player James Podsiadly.
The Cats have an ageing list and there have not been enough promising signs from the younger members of the Geelong squad to suggest further tilts at the flag in the next few years.
Already Cameron Mooney has announced his retirement at year’s end, and I expect several more Cats players to join him.
The all conquering Brisbane side of 2001-2004 had a very sudden slide down the ladder after its loss to Port Adelaide in the 2004 AFL Grand Final, and I suspect that the end will come quickly for the current Geelong side as well.
For the Cats, its now or never in the quest for football immortality, and it all starts tonight.
Tip: Geelong by 13 points
Follow Michael on Twitter @michaelfilosi
linking the circle
Guest
Since working with little kinder children I've been re-connected back into the football world. Kids love their footy! I 've been separated from the thought of it for a very long time. Just didn't seem interesting after my teens but now these little people have brought back the spark and I can tell you as a child following Geelong, today I have never laughed so much about the game of football as I did tonight. My congrads to the whole arena for a most entertaining evening. Cheers
Michael Filosi
Roar Guru
I stand by the comment regarding the importance of sides having momentum in order to win finals and therefore premierships, not just for Geelong in the past four or five years, but in a more general sense for all teams in all years. Sure, there will be exceptions from year to year, but, on the whole, it is important to have momentum heading into the finals. I could conter-punch here on the specifics, and indeed started doing so, but instead I feel it is worth simply pointing out that winning form is good form. If Geelong loses tonight their form line will have tapered off in the past four weeks, and I feel that this bodes poorly for them for the finals series this year. Enjoy the game.
stabpass
Guest
Collingwood should win by about 4 goals, looking forward to the game, on at 7.30 in Perth. Car'n the woodsmen.
Rob McLean
Guest
I don't think I can compete with the previous post, so I won't use too many meaningless words. The two that count are "Go Pies!"
mcsimmo
Roar Rookie
I'm sorry but this is complete and utter bollocks that flies in the face of all facts. In Geelong's four prior seasons near the top of the table, the only season they had 'momentum' was 2008 and that momentum did them no good on GF day. In 2007, in the second last round they lost to Port at Kardinia before thrashing them in the Grand Final. In 2009, they lost to the Bulldogs in the second last round before being beaten two weeks later in the finals. So please look up your facts and stop writing meaningless words spouting so-called conventional wisdom and making erroneous arguments. The game means nothing more to Geelong than it does to Collingwood, except in the eyes of hack journalists with nothing better to do than tap at a keyboard.
Mango Jack
Guest
Don't care who wins, as long as there are plenty of injuries and suspensions. Go HAWKS!!!!
The Cattery
Roar Guru
We always come across two schools of thought at this stage of the season, and over a long history, I reckon it comes out evenly split: 1. Players focussing on next week, couldn't care less about tonight's result, more worried about not getting injured (you'll see plenty of games in the last round of the season where a finalist plays as if they are thinking about the following week); or 2. Momentum is everything going into finals, a team gets mental strength from defeating another team they might meet quite deep into the finals. For mine, Chris Scott is the sort of bloke who is going to want to snap his charges out of any complacency creeping in right now, tonight, the Cats will go for it, and I expect them to win it. The thing is that you can't discount these two teams meeting one week before the grand final - so Geelong would go into such a clash chock block full of confidence if they beat the pies for a second time this season.
brendan
Guest
The only thing that matters tonight is that no-one gets injured.If Pendlebury was to go down Collingwood next week against the Eagles tightens up (Thomas already out) similiarly if Scarlett went down and Lonergan didnt get in next week Hawthorn would be a big show.Geelong dont have to prove anything people forget they were in the 04 prelim as well as the last four years so they have been a good side for eight or so years .
Football Fan
Guest
So Geelong have to put it all on the line in a match of no consequence so that everyone in the media won't be mean to them and say they might not win the flag?? I'd love to know what the folks down the highway make of that school of thought. I've said consistently that since the top 4 was locked in, Geelong and Collingwood couldn't give two hoots about anything until next week. My tip is Collingwood by plenty tonight as 36 players jog warily around, but next week is where the season actually starts...
Redb
Roar Guru
Everyone keeps sayng the game means nothing to final placings except the players - we are in for a show tonight. I agree Geelong must win they appear off the boil.