The date will be October 1. The place will be Auckland. The opponents will be historical foes England and their occasional nemeses from the north Scotland. The result unknown. Most pundits are predicting another English victory. Don’t put your house on it.
The facts prove that England has the ascendency over their northern neighbours. However the Scots don’t have to be consistently better than England.
They just have to better on one day and Rugby World Cup 2011 could be turned on its head.
Some experts predict Scotland will not even qualify for the finals stage, with 2007 darlings Argentina will repeat their performance. But the Scots have defeated the Pumas thrice since 2008, on each occasion away in Argentina.
If the Pumas can’t win at home, you wouldn’t tip them to beat Scotland in Wellington on 25 September.
Thus: The Thistle v The Rose part XXXXVVI. The last time these sides met was at Twickenham in March where after being locked at 9-9 at half time England kicked away to secure a deserved 22-16 victory.
Prior to that the Scots had secured a 15-15 draw in 2010 and a 15-9 victory in 2008. They can be more competitive against their old foe.
It begs the question, how do they win? In examining Scotland’s pre-Cup form they have all-important momentum by securing wins against Ireland and Italy, and in the not-so-distant past, victories over Australia, South Africa and Samoa.
England is not a team you defeat easily. You must outwit and dissect them. Victory by a thousand cuts. If I were Andy Robsinson I would formulate a game plan of taking England’s power game away from them, to force them into an unsettled scrap.
The last time the two sides met England were most impressive at set pieces. They managed to retain 95percent of their possession and steal 33percent of Scotland’s.
Lesson learnt is to play rugby that avoids stoppages with extended phases. In the clash in March, England turned over the ball at the breakdown 22 times.
Don’t play for touch, play the running game perhaps, and pick a genuine 7 who can pilfer well as this is clearly a weakness in the English game.
Let’s be realistic though. Patterson, Evans, De Luca and Dannieli are all fine players but not in the class of Ashton, Foden and Cueto.
So if there is to be running it should be direct and centered. Pick-and-drive, short-pass running. Get in behind the big English pack as quick as you can and look to draw their backs closer in.
This alone is not enough, however in conjuction with a precise kicking game, forcing the English outside backs into corner spaces with little room to run will frustrate them and perhpas force errors.
What is required is the kicker and the best the Scots have in that department is Australian-born Dan Parks. While Parks will not be remembered as one of Scotland’s great number 10s he does possess a good kicking game in general play and at goal.
He should be able to capitalise on any penalites conceeded by the English, which last time they met numbered eight. With context to field position this could potentially provide a team with 24 points. For Scotland to win they must take any points on offer.
If I were Robsinson I would pick the biggest, tallest pack I could. Perhaps play Nathan Hines at 6 with Hamilton and Kellock in the second row.
Scotland must do their best to dismantle English set pieces, and as Mark Loane stated recently, the lineout is still an area where possession can still be genuinly contested.
The game itself should be intriuging to watch as there is so much history between these sides, and wouldn’t the Scots love to get one over the English at a World Cup?
From an Australian perspective, a Scottish victory would potentially force an English All Black quarter or semi-final. Now wouldn’t that be a sight. Who will wear black?
Let’s not get ahead of ourselves, but don’t write the Scots off just yet. If they are brave and cunning and execute a game plan that unsettles England for lengthy periods of time they just might blow this tournament wide open yet.
I am away for a dram myself!
Uncle Argyle
Guest
Thanks mate.
ScotandProud
Guest
Ye-ahh, I think Scotland could do well in the pool: I'm not holding out for much beyond the quarter finals. I get as tired of the afore mentioned mentality as the next man but I base my predictions on its presence. I just think we've lost alot of the virtues that made us special in the amateur era: namely fitness and mobility, skills in the forwards and fearless fast rucking. Part of that is the nature of the modern game: alot of the moves and tricks from the early 90s 80s wouldn't make the same difference now. Part of that is that we've copied all that's crap about the modern game, ie: big brawny players taking it forward at a snails pace into a static defensive line cue slow, boring mini ruck followed by mini ruck. The defining characteristic of this Scotland team is brawn. It's nice to have players like Ewan Murray Nathan Hines Ross Ford on your side if it means you won't get beaten up but I'd love to see some rugby like Scotland France 96 or the Arms Park in 82 or six nations 1999. Andy Robinson has certainly enhanced Scotland since he took over but McGeechan he is not. If he was Jim Telfer with Telfer's obsession with rucking I'd be happier, but I won't fault a man for doing what he's done for us so far. Part of it is a sign of the modern game: in the amateur days we had cussed raw boned farmers from the borders - nowadays we've got a bunch of kids who get taxis everywhere and whose hands are as soft as butter. There's no farm or grim realities of life when they're not doing rugby stuff - it's trying to get a wind farm in their backyard or taking part in the utterly wanky Scottish celebrity-posh people circuit. Has anyone here - Ever - watched 'River City'? - I rest my case. We should be favourites to beat Argentina: whether we do or not... We can beat England: partly by making it a sh*t fight and partly thru executing exceptionally well. We'll be up for it and alot will depend on our half backs and the kind of game they have in guiding us up the pitch. Would LOVE to see a re run of the try-fest of 86. Hmm We shall see.. We'll know alot more before the game.
Matthew Skellett
Guest
Well hey Uncle Argyle , I'm all for Scotland doing well if they have gotten past their usual mentality of ;"...nothing ever goes right for scotland football/rugby/cricket/anything.." and if they get up against England I'll raise a 'wee drappie' of real scottish scotch for you :-) and be blessed :-)
Ben S
Roar Guru
Michael Lipman is off the radar. Only EPS players were considered. Haskell is a real nuisance at the ruck, but he lacks guile. He's a real athlete too, so against some sides it pays to have a brute like him at 7, but I wouldn't like to see him take on Brussow, for example. Wood has played a bit of 7 for Northampton Saints, but at 6'5, he's never going to be a contender at Test level in that position. He's very good technically, and is excellent come re-start time. To that extent he is a similar player to Croft, but like Croft he's quite lightweight. The only proper pilferer is Hendre Fourie, but he was left in England. He's my preferred option, and he looked very good against Ireland the other week (albeit during a short performance). I guess that Haskell will remain at 7, as he did during the 6N, and Tindall or Easter will lead the side (probably Tindall).
Uncle Argyle
Guest
Mate I share the heritage, I was fortunate enough to be on the Gold Coast over the weekend and went to an informal gathering with a few people from the Scottish Squad. Very decent bunch of guys who appeared relaxed and ready for what awaits. It was good see to see. I am Wallabies through and through but keep an eye on the Scot's...now all we need is David Sole, Gary Armstrong, John Jeffrey, Finaly Calder, Gavin Hastings and Gregor Townsedn to come out of retirement!
Mike
Guest
I definitely hope so, Argyle. I want to see the old country make the world sit up and take notice. alba ghu braich!
Uncle Argyle
Guest
Hi Mike, by no means do I think Argentina would be a walk in the park, but the last three times Scotland has played Argentina, it has been in Argentian and Scotland has won 3-0. I get the impression that the Scot's may have a style of game that disrupts Argentina. As Ben S aluded to the Scots can bring your rugby down a peg or two. In fairness to the Scot's though Mike they have some real expereince and talent in their squad; Euan Murray is a a world class prop and BL, Nathin Hines has 70 odd caps under his belt and is also a BL, as is go forward hooker Ross Ford. In the backs I like Rory Lawson at s/h, Ruidrah Jackson has talent and Dan Parks has experience and a boot. Max Evans can find the line and the Lamont's are no slouches. They key is putting all together which the Scot's have not been able to do consistently. Lets not forget though they have defeated the Italians who have a strong scrum, the more favoured Irish and have scalps such as Australia, South Africa and Samoa under their belt. English rugby is not an un-defeated mythical beast that has eluded the Scot's, IMHO they have the ability and the desire to beat England they just need a game plan and a touch of luck. Lets hope they get some becuase I don't want to have to play the Pom's again in a RWC play-off!
Uncle Argyle
Guest
Ben, IMHO he is quality and fit he would challange for a position in a World XV but the key word it 'fit'. If he is not fit for big games at RWC who do you play on the flank instead of him and who would you get to captain? I don't know much about Wood or Haskell. Would Michael Lipman be considered as a squad replacement?
Mike
Guest
I hope you are right Uncle Argyle. But I think Argentina are going to be tough for them.
Uncle Argyle
Guest
Well at least the Scots can kick their goals mate unlike the Australians. It is a facet of the Wallaby game that really annoys me as it has cost us so many points and potential victories yet the ARU in its infinate wisdom only employs Bram Van Straaten part time via the web from SA. Put him on full time or bring back Ben Perkins then we may not have to endure another defeat to England like 2007.
Uncle Argyle
Guest
Its a great anthem isn't it. I just hope the rugby follows suit when they play the Pom's.
Bob McGregor
Guest
Depends if the Scots are focussed when they meet in the pool games. Four years on from the last RWC they just might have matured enough to give their pool a huge fright. I wouldn't be surprised to see them top their pool. I hope so as it would prompt a total rethink. Then again, such upsets could occur if higher ranked teams don't '' turn up'' in the other pools as well - like OZ in 2007 against England.
Ben S
Roar Guru
For an outsider like us it's probably hard to gauge the value of Moody, but a) he is very experienced in a side that lacks experience, b) the team seem to respond to him very well on the pitch, and c) he's all action, and a different type of player to Haskell, who is basically a 6/8.
Moaman
Guest
Regarding the title----it's a risk I'm willing to take! They will win the Battle of the Anthems on most occasions...thereafter it's usually al ldown-hill.
King of the Gorgonites
Roar Guru
i have been impressed by Scotland clean outs at the break down recently. They are low, hard and efficent. I saw a segment on total rugby a while back about a scot in melrose who invested a clean out machine. the scotland national side has been using it, and i think the english also had a go. IMO scotland are looknig better than they have in a decade. however, they need to score tries. that is their huge weaknesses. it doesnt have to be a lot of tries, but they still need something. Georgia is the big sleeper in pool b. i would watch out for them to cause soem trouble.
Uncle Argyle
Guest
What better team than England then to fire them up?
Football United
Guest
kinda want to see the argies do well at this world cup. i'd like to see them get some serious wins under their belt so they don't get smashed in the 4 nations next year
AaronMal
Guest
Here's the thing- the Scots need to lift themselves to the next level. They seem content just to make the Quarter Finals. They have that "we've-done-enough-now-we-can't-take-it-any-further" attitude. I'd like to see the Scots find a bit of mongerel and cause an upset.
The Bush
Roar Guru
When you say the finals, you mean the knock-out stages? The tournament "finals" start on Friday. Remember, for eight (8) of the teams out there, this is the culmination of several years of qualification. If the tourament was better structured and fairer, an even higher percentage of teams would have to qualify, but that is a discussion for another thread. You're right though, Scotland has an impressive track record of making the quarter finals every tournament (something that Ireland and Wales have failed to do).
warrenexpatinnz
Roar Guru
Isn't Moody still a way of 100% and if he is only a bit part player in the pool round how much does England lose by not having him on the park?