NRL needs a better Grand Final than the AFL

By Ryan O'Connell / Expert

On Sunday afternoon, the Manly Warringah Sea Eagles will face the New Zealand Warriors in the 2011 NRL Grand Final. It would be a supreme understatement to say there is a lot riding on the game. The premiership is the ultimate goal for all teams, and the climax to the season will see two worthy recipients fighting it out for the NRL title.

Manly are the favourites, and have been consistently brilliant all year long. What the team lacks in popularity, it more than makes up for with results.

They thoroughly deserve to not just be in the grand final, but to win the whole competition.

Their opponents on Sunday are the New Zealand Warriors, who will come into the game as the underdogs after back-to-back shock wins over the Wests Tigers and Melbourne Storm. The Warriors would have been at long odds to even make the grand final after they were belted by the Brisbane Broncos in the first week of the finals, but they play an exciting and unpredictable brand of football, and now stand just one win from NRL glory.

Yet, there is more at stake than just the premiership.

Looking at the big picture for rugby league, the NRL needs a cracking game of football on Sunday.

The NRL is at an important juncture in its existence. Whilst the appointment of the Independent Commission and the impending TV rights deal will hopefully be important milestones for the future of the game, rugby league needs to continue to improve and grow if it wants to compete with the impressively run AFL.

The AFL continues to go from strength to strength, best illustrated by the fact that next year we’ll witness the debut season of the Greater Western Sydney team. The club is strategically placed in rugby league heartland, and the AFL has made no secret of the fact the club exists to compete head-to-head with the NRL in the battle for the hearts and minds, not to mention wallets, of western Sydney.

At the very core of growing both the AFL and the NRL are fans – the growth of both games is dependent upon capturing and maintaining the interest of the Australian public.

And there is no doubt that a captivating, intense and closely fought grand final, played by two highly skilled teams at the top of their game, is a vital fan recruitment tool for both codes.

As important as grassroots development and marketing are to the growth of both games, a high class grand final is arguably the most effective tool in maintaining or attaining fans.

The spectacle of the AFL and NRL grand finals ensures that they always attract a much wider audience that just the individual code’s loyal fans. And as luck would have it, both finals once again fall on the same weekend this year, ensuring that both showpiece events can conveniently be compared by casual fans.

The NRL’s greatest fear for the weekend is that the AFL’s showpiece event eclipses rugby league’s biggest day of the year. And the AFL is perfectly poised to do just that, considering the top two teams in the competition all season, the Collingwood Magpies and the Geelong Cats, are facing each other. The game has the right ingredients for an all-time classic.

Yet even if it’s a blowout to either side, the subplot will still be a great story, courtesy of Collingwood’s coaching drama, and Geelong’s attempt at a mini-dynasty.

Conversely, there is every chance of Manly turning the NRL grand final into a complete anti-climax by trouncing the underdog New Zealand Warriors.

Such a lopsided grand final would be a far from ideal finish to the NRL season. Whilst some would argue that witnessing a talented team showcasing their amazing skills and annihilating anther team can be a good thing, the truth is that a close and exciting finish is always the preferred scenario.

In fact, whilst the NRL would never admit it, and Manly fans won’t want to hear it, a New Zealand win is the ideal scenario.

Manly fans can protest all they like about being unfairly hated. Perhaps the hatred is unjustified. But whatever the reason for the vitriol against them, the simple truth is that the vast majority of rugby league fans don’t want Manly to win. Particularly by a large margin.

It may be unfair, but it’s also a fact.

As such, the NRL will be intently hoping against a boring blow out by Manly on Sunday. Especially if the AFL grand final the day before is an absolute blockbuster, which everyone expects it to be.

The perfect weekend for the NRL would begin with a boring, one sided, low quality AFL grand final. That would be followed by a brilliant display of rugby league on Sunday, in which Manly showcase all their brilliant skills, only for the underdog Warriors to finish strongly and claim not just another impressive scalp, but the NRL premiership.

Such a scenario would even have the added benefit of stealing New Zealander’s attention off the Rugby World Cup, if only fleetingly.

The battle between the AFL and NRL is not going to be won or lost purely based on this weekend, but it remains a little skirmish that both sides would love to win.

Over to you, Warriors.

The Crowd Says:

2011-10-03T07:52:08+00:00

Ted Skinner

Guest


Jim - did you see this? "Here's an extact from the Broncos' Magazine (August 2010): “POWERFUL BRONCOS BRAND AGAIN SALUTED Andrew Condon, Australian managing director of M & C Saatchi Sport & Entertainment, says the recent recruitment of Falou and Hunt was a further testament to the systems and processes that was made the WOW Brisbane Broncos a power brand of Australian sport. ‘On the surface it looks as though the club that nurtured the likes of Lote Tuqiri, Wendell Sailor and Brad Thorn to dual international status has simply lost two of its finest athletes,’ Condon explained. ‘But not so in my opinion. The fact the AFL has made its first raids on rugby league at Red Hill is no coincidence. They obviously recognise a market-leading brand when they see one. The AFL has ridden their expansion areas on the back of big names representing a powerful & dominant brand. Rather than feel dejected at the losses, the player development and marketing staff at the Broncos should take a bow… …to be named No.1 team among all football codes in Australia last year is testament to the supremacy of their brand.” And Mr Condon said it was this strength of brand – as much as anything- that was the reason the Broncos produced more code jumpers than any other NRL club. ” The ability of the Broncos to identify , develop and market its key talent as some of Australia’s best athletes is the reason it has lost more players than any other club…”"

2011-10-03T05:50:53+00:00

Boomshanka

Guest


OzTAM has just updated the metro TV numbers for the NRL Final Metro 2.16m (Syd 1.08m Bri 567k Mel 363k) + Regional's 1.097m + NZ 514k (Subscription TV) + NZ FTA (177k) All in 4M across Australasia. Can't find the figures for the AFL in New Zealand (it was played live into NZ), although it'll be a safe bet to say that the NRL Grand Final achieved a higher "Overall TV audience" than the AFL. Also worthy of note is 363k watched the NRL in Melbourne with 258k in Sydney for the AFL "(And everyone wonders why the AFL want to stick another team in Sydney)".

2011-10-01T12:44:09+00:00

Meesta Cool

Guest


I got wall posters from the leading newspapers and Pstage stamps from Australia Post that tells me they did win.. lol. and (please no boring Rort replies). we heard em and heard em .......

2011-10-01T12:36:49+00:00

Jeff

Guest


Keep repeating it Boom, maybe we will get through to someone one day that we had enough of having a great team but being treated like lepers. JamesP -- next season record the Friday night game and then watch it at 11-30 (Make sure you know the score first),after each stoppage watch 1/4 hr of semi porn ads (these can be found and recorded on Ch 9 after midnight), -- -- at 7-30 you can watch a recording of 2 1/2 men or Farmer wants a ++++ or any other 57 year old show you may hate!, after you have done this for ten years , you may understand Why Boom and I are always whinging about our treatment. If you really want us to shut up!.. mail D.Gallop and ask/plead with him to read 'The Roar' and respond to our 'whinges' if you get a reply, run out and put a Tattlotto ticket on. Good luck mate

2011-10-01T05:46:22+00:00

Drano

Guest


Totally agree with amused, and to add further comment the AFL season (Yawn) has been all about lop sided score lines whilst the NRL has been about intensity and golden point games brought about by the closness of there competition.

2011-10-01T00:40:25+00:00

Crosscoder

Roar Guru


Yes I understand what areas are involved,and I also know anomalies lie on both sides.. And I pointed out the Gc as to the AFL. I repeat you can take 1 million(debatable) spillage people out of the regional equation of 5.12m Rl states( not including Canberra BTW) and estimate a figure of 12% TV switched on to the NRL,and reduce regionals by 120,000 viewers.The regionals are still way way ahead of the AFL.ATST the GC (as but on example) must be deducted from the regionals for AFL. The mining regions of the WA would also have a strong rl following component.Tasmania correct is sometimes included in the regionals,so one cannot generalise and say they are not. There is also the anomaly with the meters,if one wants to be picky in 5 cap cities ,5 cap cities where the NRL in real time(not witching hours) comparison is in fact two.That is not an apples with apples comparison,despite Oztam using the figures as the be all. The AFL dominated cities with a population in total of 6.98m have 1655 Oztam meters(54.5% and the NRL dominated two cities has a combined pop of 6.62m with only 1380 meters (45.5%).Yet the population comparison is AFL cities 51.3% and NRL cities 48.7% only . What sort of bias ,either way does that throw up.I know there is such a thing as weighting,but this is out of kilter. I have given you the advertising expenditure for the respective regional and cities,which are not duplicated.But in fact spells out in black and white the value they attach to consumers in those areas,those areas dominated by rl. I remind you of the comment by Gavin Atkins Asian correspondent The Shadowlands on 5.10.2010 "every time you hear the AFL talking about TV ratings is whether the regional markets are included.In this case as usual ït's the five cities result"meaning the several fanatical rl areas/AFL wastelands like Nth Qld,Newcastle and the Illawarra (which was represented in the NRL G/F (2010) are not included". I further add Colin Smith of lek(who negotiated the last AFL deal is a Vic citizen),and is involved in the next TV rl deal. "this is a fantastic television sport,it is the leader".You have got three great products ,the NRL home and away and finals,State of origin and then the internationals". Smith was asked on 22July refer (big Pond Sport ) if the NRL was ahead of the AFL>Smith replied"in television audience it is". Another comment by a leading media buyer Barry OBrien of the PHD company'The huge increase in t'he payment by Foxtel is a positive for the NRL,given the ratings it generatesThe fallout of Ten and Nine not bidding for AFL rights aso augurs well for the NRL,as they will have to go hard with their offer to secure the rights.Seven has clearly kept something in their pocket for rugby league". Finally I would add,having an NRl team in Perth,would further prove the 5 cities v two ratings comparison as being not a true reflection of the status quo.,

2011-09-30T06:56:54+00:00

stabpass

Guest


There is absolutely no overlap in WA,SA, because there is no ratings done outside the OZTAM areas, Usuually Tassie is not included in any ratings. Do you understand what areas the OZTAM areas rate, have a look at the maps and you will see what areas they rate, but anything outside of those areas which include Tas, rural WA,SA are not included in ratings, not in any ratings whatsoever. Please READ and pay attention, in NSW/QLD the OZTAM maps just like the southern states include many areas that are really not really metro, but are still included in the 5 city ratings, when 'free Tv' conducts their NSW/QLD regional ratings, the overlap with the NSW/QLD OZTAM maps, is around a million people, in Tassie, rural SA/WA, 'Free TV' conducts no regional ratings.

2011-09-30T06:48:08+00:00

Crosscoder

Roar Guru


Is there??? I thought the Warriors were playing in a grand final.After that is complete,we may even switch over to the world cup,which is when the real business end stuff begins.

2011-09-30T01:06:50+00:00

Jack Russell

Roar Guru


Last time the Swans made a preliminary final the audience in Sydney was well over 300k - over a longer period of time and up against an NRL final on another channel at the same time. With over 60,000 at the game. Really, this isn't an argument you can win.

2011-09-30T01:03:11+00:00

Lorry

Guest


Ummm, hello people?! Who cares about 'regional audiences'... There's a *WORLD* CUP on!!

2011-09-30T00:58:43+00:00

Crosscoder

Roar Guru


LOL And understandably me I also like football,you like to spin when it suits . You like to ignore the GC for cap city ratings in Brisbane affecting the AFL Do you read what I stated.Oztam has called them ovelaps satellite in Adelaide in and spills in Perth,they come from somewhere.There is some duplication in WA and SA. Anyway we can argue haggle till the cows come home. Show me where the AFL gets within a bulls roar of the regionals with the NRL Australia wide,allowing for any duplication.Take out your highly debatable figure of 1million. Austar must have a small rl viewing base LOL. Even if you took out 2 million,the areas involved population wise,which are rl heartland leaves the other regionals for dead.Nothing you or your band of head nodders,has shown me otherwise. You apparently are the expert on regional Tv ratings(check my earlier post on advertising on regional areas,so when you have compiled your spin figures,present them to Colin Smith of Lek,I am sure he will find them useful in his future rl negotiations with the Tv cos.

2011-09-30T00:40:55+00:00

Crosscoder

Roar Guru


stabpass. Then perhaps you and you happy little band of flag wavers can spell out with evidence where the AFL matches the rl in regional areas totally of this country in Tv ratings Take out whatever you wish..Show me where the AFL matches rl in the regionals. Because not one of you,not one has done so,except spin to your hearts content about duplication ,which goes nowhere near the differences between the Qld/NSw areas and the regional areas in "so called "rusted on "LOL AFL regional areas. Yes I know,where the joke lies maestro,.its reading a cast of thousands of flag wavers desperately trying to ignore the reality of the regional Tv ratings ,which the likes of Colin Smith of lek(who would apparnetly know more on the matter on a postage stamp )than you spinners.Sheeds would be proud.

2011-09-30T00:26:21+00:00

Crosscoder

Roar Guru


stabpass. With due respect, you have no idea what research and what debates I have been involved with on the matter of spillage /regionals et al.So don't make assumptions or generalisations about me.Else I could make comments about your spin. I suggest it is extremely difficult to get the message through .Despite the spillage, the rl heartland area population wise and as evidenced in subscription figures is far greater ,than any compilation of population figures you can can come up with in the WA/SA/Tas states regionals. I have just given you examples of where the cities of Perth and Adelaide and melbourne have spillage.QED they are included in the 3 cap cities ratings ie rusted on.And The GC (aka the Suns ditto).We are forever told by you guys the GC has a decent AFL supporter base I am still awaiting for you to show me and the assembled throng ,evidence (regionals BTW) ,where AFL areas gets within a bulls roar of rl areas in the nthn states(leaving out all the spillages on both sides). The term rusted on ,can be applied to many regional Qld and NSW,and perhaps areas of the mining regions of WA where there would be a fair number of rl supporters. The latest FTA Ad spend for the last financial year Metro Millions of $ Sydney 1490 (37%) Melbourne 849 (27%) Brisbane 526(17%) Adelaide 229 (7%0 Perth 329(11%) total 3,100 regional NSW 405(44%) Vic( 135 (16%) Qld 217(24%) SA 31(3%) WA 47(5%) NT/Tas 74(8%) Total 911 It is a bit hard to "double up" on ad spend,expenditure is what it is.Unless we get another spin fest. Qld regionals have spent 50% more than Vic regionals and more than WA/SA/NT and Tas combined.To ignore regionals in any form of ratings ,from a marketeers perspective is plain suicidal.eg to use an extreme view.If an earthquake or tsunami flattend sydney and the majority of the population move to the bush,what would Oz tam do then with 50,000 remaining metro residents.Ponder that. Regional people are bleeding consumers ,as the ad expendiutre indicates.. I repeat if the AFL secured the regional ratings as the rl does, A.D would be trumpeting it from the MCG.Just as Gallop does so now.if it were not important or bore no releavance to the code on TV, he would clam up. Colin Smith from Lek has not held back on his comments(favourable) about rl on regional TV.I suggest he has a better inside working knowledge than either me or you on the matter.

2011-09-29T13:47:46+00:00

stabpass

Guest


It's just a huge joke, CC attempts to tell you stuff, that you have actually explained to him earlier, i still dont think he can grasp it.

2011-09-29T13:30:08+00:00

me, I like football

Guest


you obviously have no idea crosscoder WRT ratings. Melbournes overlap is about 10,000 and Perth and Adelaide does not matter as their regionals are not included anyway. On the otherside Brisbane + Sydney has an overlap of around 1,000,000. That 10,000 for AF heartland where overlap occurs v 1,000,000 in RL heartland.

2011-09-29T13:15:32+00:00

me, I like football

Guest


you realise that those areas that overlap in Melbourne equates to less than 10,000 people and the regionals for Adelaide and Perth are not even included in the ratings so it doesn't matter if there is overlap as they are only counted once anyway. Th Brisbane and Sydney overlap comes to around 1,000,000 people that's right 1,000,000 v 10,000 in AF heartland

2011-09-29T12:49:16+00:00

Ozman

Guest


As a New South Welshman i know a lot who are.

2011-09-29T06:38:39+00:00

stabpass

Guest


@CC, you are actually trying to point out to me, what i already know, but it appears untill you did some research that you did not, i am aware that OZTAM records many people that are not really in metro areas, i actually pointed it out to you earlier. My point is that 1.2 million people + in rusted on Australian football areas are not surveyed, this does not happen in NSW/QLD where everyone can be rated, and in some cases double counted.

2011-09-28T23:50:36+00:00

Kasey

Guest


Whites, I believe the AFL GF is 'traditionally' the Last Saturday in September' but to accomodate the extra team from GC, yet another 'convenient' tradition has gone by the wayside. I think the AFL are proper-f**ked if there is a draw though. My understanding is that the MCC have already played nice in agreeing to the date shift once and there isn't another suitable stadium free for footy until next April.

2011-09-28T22:05:04+00:00

Crosscoder

Roar Guru


stabpass The Broncos were not started by News ltd.Try the names Maranta,Morgan et al.So your description "plastic SL brand" suggests you don't have a clue. Generally Roy gets it wrong time and time again and you are correct all the time LOL.If he made all the mistakes you claim,he wouldn't have lasted five minutes with the SMH.The paper has a reputation to maintain. You hate messengers who bear uncomfortable news.Roy must be your worst nightmare. What has the AFL G/F ticket prices got to do with the price of fish.The NRL is a sellout,and they could sell out a 100,000 stadium judging by the demand,based on the quick sale of 14,000 tickets when they went on sale on Wed morning. One could suggest it The high prices)only reinforces the greed aspect,that even some AFL supporters have complained about the AFL admin.Especially when things are tough in the economy.Shame.

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