2011 Derby Day: Live blog

Delivering a race card of the most elusive quality, the Victorian Derby blesses racing purists with the best day of racing on the Australasian calendar. Spoiling us with four Group 1s, two Group 2s and three Group 3s, we will be live on The Roar throughout the day with updates as we trawl the form guides to find a few winners.

Marking the beginning of the Flemington Carnival, Derby Day traditionally outperforms Melbourne Cup Day in attendance with figures predicted to be around 110,000 dependent on the weather.

In pristine conditions, Derby Day attracted 129,089 race goers in 2006 compared to the 100,000 on Melbourne Cup.

Rather than going into elaborate detail for each race, let’s take a look at the horses to watch throughout the day.

Race 1 – Carbine Club Stakes (Group 3) – 1600m

1. Galah
Running third up with wins in his first two starts this preparation, this Redoute’s Choice colt is a class above the field and deserves to enter the race a clear favourite. Beating Masthead in his last start, it can be safe to assume he will win 1600m for the first time with two wins over 1400m already to his credit. From barrier 4 in a small field, Kieran McEvoy will give him the perfect run.

4. Meethaq
The only threat to Galah based on form, this colt is also a last start winner. The firmer the track, the better. He disposed of other runners in this race by 1.8L two weeks ago.

Race 2 – The Lexus Stakes (Group 3) – 2500m

In an open field, the majority of runners must win to earn a start in the Melbourne Cup. Of the runners, only Older than Time is assured a start on Tuesday.

The two past winners have been Maluckyday (2010) and Shocking (2009) who have each backed up their wins three days later to run second and first in their respective years. In a difficult betting race, keep an eye on the horses when they enter the mounting yard.

3. Green Moon
Looked the winner of the 2010 Caulfield Cup at the 200m mark and will justifiably enter the race as favourite. 34th in the order of entry, Green Moon will win this race if he runs the exact same race as he did the Caulfield Cup. Having raced five times since arriving in Australia, he has relished the firm tracks and will be a genuine Melbourne Cup chance if he can win this race. Nick Hall held him in the box seat all the way over 2400m and all four of Green Moon’s wins have been beyond 2000m.

12. Midnight Martini
43rd in the Melbourne Cup order of entry with 50kg, he was unlucky miss out on the Caulfield Cup field. Despite not winning in either of her last starts, Midnight Martini has had two unlucky runs boxed in. Out of Street Cry and trained my Mark Kavanagh (same as Shocking), she possesses the turn of foot we have accustomed to see by Kavanagh’s horse. If the rains comes, she will be the horse to beat.

Race 3 – Wakeful Stakes (Group 2) – 2000m

1. Atlantic Jewel
Undoubtedly the best filly in the country at the moment and possibly the world after just four starts. Dominating the Thousand Guineas, she steps up to 2000m which may be her limit. Although expected to win, it may not be as comfortable as her past wins. Murmurs have been heard about Royal Ascot on the agenda for this wonder filly who Michael Rodd rates as the best he has ridden. Sit back and enjoy the spectacle.

4. Dowager Queen
Out of Savabeel, she won’t win it but she is the best stayer amongst the 3yo class. This will be a warm up for Thursday’s VRC Oaks over 2500m so if she can come through the Wakeful fully fit; she will be heavily backed to beat Atlantic Jewel in the Oaks.

Race 4 – Coolmore Stud Stakes (Group 1) – 1200m

1. Sepoy
From 10 starts the Darley stable’s greatest asset has already earned over $3.5m and will bring that figure to just under $4m on Saturday. In the quietest betting race for the day, he will cruise down the straight before burning off the field at the 400m mark. This will be the first time he races in front of owner Sheikh Mohammed and will go to spell after. It is unclear whether the Sheikh will opt to take his star colt home to Dubai following the race.

6. Bear Hero
The only mystery in the race surrounds this Hong Kong colt who will be running for the first time in Australia following three comfortable wins at Sha Tin from four starts all over 1000m. The 1200m straight at Flemington is reversed to the 1000m straight at Sha Tin but this colt should have no issues with the track. Little is known about this horse but he will be worth tracking throughout the year and a place chance if he continues the first up form of international raiders.

Race 5 – Mackinnon Stakes (Group 1) – 2000m

The second of the Melbourne Cup lead up races, several of these hoses will be using it as a final hit out before the big one on Tuesday. Run at weight-for-age past winners have run well in the Cox Plate with the only difference being a reduction of 40m. Unlike the Lexus, horses who run well in the Mackinnon rarely back up their performances in the Melbourne Cup so expect a few to be eased to the line if they’re not in it around the final bend.

3. Midas Touch
Having not run in six weeks since impressively finishing third in the Group 1 Underwood Stakes, this European stayer has looked threatening in her Australian starts. He is assured a start in the Melbourne Cup and her light preparation is the key to backing up into the Melbourne Cup. Nick Hall likes to move him out around the final bend which has been the downfall in last starts, so a lesson will have been learned. He is the freshest of all the runners.

10. Foreteller
Not nominated for the Melbourne Cup, this should be his final run before going for a spell. Seamlessly making the transition from NSW racing to Victorian tracks by winning the Group 3 David Jones Cup over the same distance two weeks ago, he should settle midfield before attacking in the second wave of horses.

12. Rekindled Interest
All historical evidence suggests the Rekindled Interest will back up his placing in the Cox Plate with a win in the Mackinnon. He will enter the race favourite but it must be noted that he is a Mooney Valley track specialist and the major difference is the significantly longer straight at Flemington. He last ran at Flemington in the Turnbull Stakes over the same distance with less weight to finish fifth behind December Draw and Glass Harmonium. Not entered in the Melbourne Cup, he will be ridden hard to the line but is an unconvincing favourite.

Race 6 – Victoria Derby (Group 1) – 2500m

Although the feature race for the day, The Victoria Derby looms as the worst betting race. There have been three distinct lead ups through the Mooney Valley Vase, Norman Robinson Stakes and Geelong Classic with no interactions between. Testing 3yo’s to run 2500m has usually hampered young horse’s development with very few Derby winners returning the following spring as legitimate contenders for the big three.

1. Manawanui
His price has drifted all week as further questions have arisen over his ability to stay the distance. Despite getting home with ease in the Mooney Valley Vase over 2040m, the win against a weak field should not be overestimated. He should be able to stay the distance however, because he tracked two wide for the entire run in the Vase to still get home strongly. He’s drawn the ideal barrier to dictate the race (8) but is one of the riskier favourites in the day’s races.

5. Sangster
Although he has yet to win a big race, he has impressed throughout this preparation twice placing over 2000m. This Savabeel gelding possesses the best staying pedigree of the field and was unlucky to pipped by a nostril on the post in the Norman Robinson Stakes by fellow runner Sabrage. He made his run too early in that race and a jockey change to Hughie Bowman should rectify that.

Two starts ago he ran third in the Group 1 Champion Stakes at Randwick also over 2000m so will be itching to deliver a win after two promising staying performances. Like other New Zealand trained horses, he likes a soft track and a sunny day will do him no favours.

7. Induna
Dominating the Geelong Classic over 2200m to win by 3.5L, this Darley runner has led many punters to jump off Manawanui. Although a proven stayer with wins over 2200m and 2100m in his last two starts, he is yet to run at Group level so this is a significant step up in class. With pedigree very similar to Sepoy, his bloodline does not favour Group 1 staying. The step up in class should be too much for this 3yo to win.

Race 7 – Myer Classic (Group 1) – 1600m

1. More Joyous
Whispers have emerged throughout the week that this multiple Group 1 winning mare is not fully fit which has been evidenced in a betting drift. Her run in the Tristarc Stakes was a heart stopper when she looked out of it at the 400m mark before reeling in Sister Madly to win by a nose. At weight-for-age, she is a class above this field and if she can overcome barrier 13, her only threat will be Mosheen.

16. Mosheen
The only filly in the race, she will carry 49kg, 7 less than anyone else in the field. Bypassing the Wakeful looks a good move for this Fastnet Rock filly that has already proven her class running second in the Thousand Guineas over the same distance. Only due to the enormous weight advantage can she be mentioned in the same sentence as More Joyous however, history is not favourable for 3yo’s in this race where Yosei finished at the back of the field last year.

Race 8 – Salinger Stakes (Group 2) – 1200m

6. Sister Madly
If early markets are anything to go by; this looks like the value bet of the day. Her last three starts have delivered a win, second to Sepoy in the Manikato Stakes and second to More Joyous in the Tristarc Stakes. All three of her wins have been over the 1200m and she will be amongst the leaders and too difficult the catch.

10. Curtana
She really enjoys the long straight at Flemington with a win on Oaks day last year backing up her second place to Star Witness in the Coolmore. She ran second to Sepoy in her last start by 1.3L which can be considered a small gap against Sepoy. The light weight gives her a chance.

Race 9 – Group 3 – 1400m

8. Doubtful Jack
It’s usually safe to stay away from a horse that was six lengths behind the winner in their last start but this may be the exception. Running second to Black Caviar is an achievement and Doubtful Jack is primed for this race. He loves running at Flemington where he won three times last year, all by margins greater than three lengths. If showers persist, he is the ultimate wet weather horse with four wins from four starts on heavy tracks.

12. Niblick
A last start winner at Flemington, Niblick has had seven weeks to freshen up and is likely to enter the race as favourite. From four starts over 1400m, he has won three times and come second in the other. Another track specialist, it will take wild circumstances for him not to at least run a place in this field.

14. Spacecraft
Taking a step back in class after running around the Group 1 level during the Autumn carnival, the bookmakers are showing this Galileo gelding very little respect. Although he has not delivered anywhere near the potential he showed as a colt, his long odds may be worth a couple of cents at the end of the day.

Got a hot tip or a question? Join our live blog from 10am onwards as we look for some winners throughout the day and enjoy the festivities.