After taking out the Group 1 Thousand Guineas in emphatic fashion, wonder-filly Atlantic Jewel may rob Australian racing of a future superstar as she is questionably prepared for the Group 1 VRC Oaks over a considerably longer distance.
Trained by Mark Kavanagh, Atlantic Jewel is four wins from four starts and has already been touted by her trainer as a future Caulfield Cup winner.
After taking out the Thousand Guineas, Kavanagh suggested his star filly would be spelled before returning in the Autumn.
Assessing her after the 1600m Group 1 win and discussing with her connections, the decision was made to take her to the Group 2 Wakeful Stakes over 2000m as a prelude to the Group 1 VRC Oaks over 2500m on November 3.
While it may be premature to compare Atlantic Jewel to the likes of Australian legends, her wins have all come from dominant acceleration over the final 600m to win comfortably, not dissimilar to So You Think. Still, a very premature call however.
Out of Fastnet Rock, Atlantic Jewel offers little staying confidence looking through her pedigree with her sire never winning beyond 1200m. Having sired four other Group 1 winners, none of Fastnet Rock’s offspring won beyond 1600m at the highest level.
These winners have been Wanted (Newmarket Handicap – 1200m), Rock Classic (Australian Guineas – 1600m), Lone Rock (Goodwood Handicap – 1200m) and Irish Lights (Thousand Guineas – 1600m).
Of these winners, only Rock Classic was pushed on in distance to the Australian Derby over 2400m and he failed dismally, finishing second last in a field of 14.
Since winning those Group 1’s none have gone on to win another.
Atlantic Jewel looks a much fitter filly than Fastnet Rock’s previous Group 1 winners and it is hard to deny that she travels 1600m with ease and is a class above her fellow three year olds.
Recent history suggests that horses who have won the VRC Oaks have struggled to recover to make a serious impact on future staying races.
Many experts believe horses to not reach full staying capabilities until their fifth birthday.
The last three winners of the VRC Oaks have been Brazilian Pulse, Faint Perfume and Samantha Miss. Samantha Miss raced only twice more after her win before being retired.
Faint Perfume is still yet to recover after being so heavily tested at staying distances as a filly. Trainer Bart Cummings withdrew her from the 2010 Melbourne Cup two weeks before the race conceding she had absolutely no chance of winning it.
In three starts this Spring, Brazilian Pulse has run 14th, 16th and 11th over middle distances.
Going to the Wakeful Stakes over 2000m on Derby Day before the VRC Oaks, there is a very high possibility that Atlantic Jewel will take out both.
Having already won four wins at the start of her racing career, her next two runs will be extremely taxing on this young filly who could potentially never recover.
Three options exist for Mark Kavanagh and the connections of Atlantic Jewel.
1. Take her to the Wakeful Stakes and onto the VRC Oaks to potentially collect large winnings.
2. Spell her and bring her back in the Autumn for the Australian Derby and Australian Oaks.
3. Take her to the 1600m Group 1 Myer Classic on Derby Day and then spell her.
She is on track to fulfil the first option but the recent failure of Helmet to convert Guineas winning form beyond 2000m may be an indication of Atlantic Jewel’s capabilities. Helmet is also out of a sprinter (Exceed and Excel) who never won beyond 1400m.
If there is a strong desire to run her again, the third option is the most logical and would preserve her longevity to ensure she can return next year for a tilt at the Cox Plate.
The Group 1 Myer Classic is a weight for age event for fillies and mares. Atlantic Jewel would carry field low 49.5kg and have no concerns over the distance.
Option three is the path Thousand Guineas runner up Mosheen will be taking who is in the second line of betting at $6 behind multiple Group 1 winner More Joyous ($2.30) for the Myer Classic over 1600m.
Mosheen, also with sprinting pedigree is almost certain not to proceed to the VRC Oaks following the Myer Classic in which she will carry 49.5kg.
There is $1,000,000 up for grabs in the VRC Oaks, $300,000 in the Wakeful Stakes and $500,000 in the Myer Classic.
The Victorian Spring racing carnival has unearthed some outstanding fillies and mares over the recent weeks, and only Black Caviar has been more impressive than Atlantic Jewel.
It would be a bitter disappointment if Atlantic Jewel pulls up poorly from the longer distances and cannot further improve on her middle distance form.
A racing genius in his own right, let’s hope Mark Kavanagh gives this highly impressive filly every chance at next year’s Spring Classics.
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