Since the advent of 16 teams in the AFL in 1995, every year bar two has seen a team rise from outside the eight to the top four. This year, who is it likely to be?
With five new coaches at the helm this season (not including Kevin Sheedy at GWS), it is worth noting that on eight occasions during the above period, such a rise has occurred in a coach’s first full season in charge.
The two instances of no extreme change in the top four occurred in 2009-10, before last year’s bolt from the blue by West Coast, which only John Worsfold and his Eagles might claim they saw coming. Even they might be bluffing.
In an era where teams seem to be either climbing through the premiership window and ‘contending’, or getting out the tools and ‘rebuilding’, we are in a period of increased stability at the top of the table.
With sixteen top-four spots available in the last four years, fifteen have been occupied by just five teams – Geelong, Collingwood, St Kilda, the Western Bulldogs and Hawthorn.
Considering the era of stability as described above, I believe that this year will see the ladder broken into three distinct groups similar to last season – the haves, the have-nots, and the in-betweeners.
The first group will contain last year’s top five: Collingwood, Hawthorn, Carlton, Geelong, and West Coast, who for various reasons I expect to at least maintain their status, or only slightly diminish their returns.
The second group consists of those in the lower reaches who have little reason to expect a significant rise: GWS, Port Adelaide, and Gold Coast as the true battlers, and the Western Bulldogs and Brisbane as slightly better sides, but not by much.
So this leaves us with the group that I am most interested in from a season 2012 perspective – St Kilda, Sydney, Fremantle, Essendon, North Melbourne, Richmond, Melbourne, and Adelaide. I don’t believe any of these teams are premiership contenders, but supporters of these clubs are entitled to think that if everything goes right they could finish top six.
Similarly, if things go wrong, a position in the bottom half dozen wouldn’t be out of the question.
Considering that the vast gap in quality between the top and middle tier is the same as between the middle and bottom, I believe that the draw is the critical element in analysing where improvement in positions is going to come from.
It’s all about avoiding a return meeting with the powerful, premiership-driven predators up the top, feasting upon a double helping of plump, ripe-for-the-picking carcasses down the bottom, and having as few interstate trips as possible to meet those on the same level of the food chain.
Based on the above conclusion, I believe the two teams we should expect to see significantly rise are Adelaide (up seven spots to seventh), and North Melbourne (three spots to sixth).
The Crows get to meet the three lowest-ranked teams twice each, and with the exception of Geelong, play the other four predators only once apiece.
First time coach (another bonus) Brenton Sanderson has a good crop of rising youngsters with which to work, all of whom can be expected to find a new level if they remain injury free. Andy Otten, Daniel Talia, David Mackay, and the Brodies Smith and Martin all have the capacity to be above average footballers and can be expected to be get their chance to stiffen and deepen the defence and midfield.
Rory Sloane should continue to improve and seems to have a big-game temperament, Kurt Tippett is overdue to put it all together, while the joker in the pack is of course Taylor Walker, who should finally be unleashed to fulfil the enormous talent at his disposal.
If the exciting key forward is the joker, then the ace in the hole is Patrick Dangerfield. Seemingly possessing all the tools for greatness, a return of 17 touches a match and kicking 23 goals after playing the full 22 games is quite simply not enough from his fourth year in the system.
Consider Richmond’s similarly built mid-forward Dustin Martin, who averaged 22 disposals and snared 33 goals in only his second year – this is a player whose achievements Dangerfield should be looking to match and then exceed.
While I don’t expect North’s rise to be as dramatic, it will be no less significant if they can come from outside of the eight to secure a home final. They play the five stragglers in the first nine rounds to build momentum, and I fully expect them to be 7-5 after the final bye round, which is round 13.
Only playing the top five once each this year is a huge boon, and while the loss of best and fairest winner Daniel Wells in the early part of the season will be felt, he should be running into peak fitness during North’s tougher second half of the season, and will be a welcome addition to a growing midfield.
The Kangaroos have three important elite players in Andrew Swallow, Todd Goldstein and Drew Petrie that the Crows don’t, as well as an even bunch of emerging midfielders, led by the hard-headed Jack Ziebell and complemented by Leigh Adams, Keiran Harper and Sam Wright, who can importantly average a goal a game when pushing forward.
Is it crazy to be predicting finalists and ladder positions two weeks before we even see a ball kicked in anger in the pre-season competition? Of course it is, but we love our football, and that’s where the fun lies!
Later in the week my AFL preview will be Who Will Fall. And next week, the all-important question of Who Will Win.
Lachie
Guest
If the dockers have a better run with injuries this year I suspect they will challenge the top 4. I think matthew pavlich will return to his career best form with his move back to the foward line. Chris Mayne is ready for a big year. He hasnt really bothered the his opponents since arriving at the dockers. I also think patrick dangerfield will have a breakout year for the crows in a more signaficant role in the midfield.
stabpass
Guest
Freo would be above 35,000 as seat allocation for renewing members would be already done. (cut off date)
Fitzy
Guest
Out of everyone (GWS aside) Swans had the best recruiting, Armstrong, Walsh, Tom Mitchell (this kid is good), Mitch Morton. Did about the best in the trade period and draft, yet everyone still doesn't rate them when they really didn't lose anyone. Who's going to put them out of the 8? Not North, Adelaide, not Melb, not Tigers, not Freo.
Jaceman
Guest
I'm backing the Giants to surprise. After the Giants winning the world Series in 2010 and the Giants maybe winning the Super Bowl in 2012 (I may have Jonahed them now), I'm tipping GWS to win 2 games...Not sure about the Yokohama Giants though
Yahweh Yahya
Guest
Don't forget the Queensland Reds. They'll do good...... but seriously, I'm backing Cork GAA. It'll be them or Cronulla's team, the Rioters™, I think.
Fancy that Taylor Walker can have a breakout year like Jack Riewoldt did in 2010 when he went from player of potential to Coleman Medalist. And Tippett could be anythng if he can find some consistency.
Backline suspect, but at least they have Rutten for the big forwards, and i'm expecting Sanderson to have a major impact with their defence.
Lachlan
Roar Guru
Everyone under-estimates the Swans a potential top 4 team, for sure. Finished 5th the last two years, can challenge any team. With only 4 remaining premiership players, they are doing very well.
Lachlan
Roar Guru
i expect the bottom 4 teams you have listed, effectively double by halfway through the season. you'd expect fremantle to be about 30,000.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
AFL memberships as of today: Club Members Collingwood 49,334 Hawthorn 45,176 West Coast 44,291 Adelaide 38,712 Essendon 37,093 Geelong 30,162 Richmond 30,004 Carlton 29,517 Melbourne 22,867 St Kilda 22,623 Port Adelaide 21,856 North Melbourne 20,408 Western Bulldogs 20,247 Sydney 16,658 Brisbane 12,696 Gold Coast 8,931 GWS 4,400 Fremantle N/A
D.Large
Guest
Good comparison by The Author between Dusty Martin and Dangers. I really think this will be Dangers year to shine and I will be backing that up with his selection in supercoach.
Redb
Roar Guru
yeah thats what i think. Still largely a bunch of kids with a handful of solid experienced players and one A Grader.
D.Large
Guest
Not for mine Renster, I think GC will again only win a couple of games, but i don't think they will cop as many 100 point floggings. I still think they are 2 years away from even entering the middle band.
Redb
Roar Guru
I thought Geelong would slide last year boy was I wrong. "Too Old, Too Slow , Too Good!" was the banner and spot on it was. Geelong have a lost a couple of older players but retain Selwood & Bartel - too much talent to see them drop far.
Renster
Guest
Just as teams unpredictably rise, teams also unpredictably fall. Consider the Bulldogs last year. Could it be Geelong this year??? Seems unlikely but... To me the team to watch for an unpredictable rise is Gold Coast. It has a really really young list and we know that every pre-season you put under the belt of a young talented play can see a huge jump in their ability to perform on-field. Wouldn't be surprised to see them jump into middle tier and even be knocking on the door of the top eight... Think about West Coast last year. Bring on the siren...
TomC
Guest
I think you can make a good case for Adelaide to rise up the ladder this season, but then I think you can make that case for just about everyone in Cam's middle tier. I think all those teams have a lot of good young players running around. I would suggest that Adelaide are a bit short on genuine KPP quality compared to some of the other teams around them: a Pavlich, J.Riewoldt or Petrie would make a big difference. There's also a bit of a question mark over some of the quality of their distribution into the forwardline, for me. I think they're more likely to finish just outside the eight than inside. They appear well set for the future though, and Johnston and Lynch are smart acquisitions. FWIW, the Kangaroos play West Coast twice this season, but I certainly agree that their easier draw gives them every chance of pushing into the eight this season. They had a shocking fixture last year, particularly in the first few rounds. The big questions are whether their young backline will be as solid this season as last, and whether some of the young midfielders who had real break-out seasons in 2011 can back that up.
Ian Whitchurch
Guest
Im not convinced by Adelaide's backline, and Im not convinced they get more than four wins against Port, GWS and Gold Coast. Im utterly convinced they get five losses against the top bracket, and that puts them solidly contending for the bottom of the top eight.
Redb
Roar Guru
I'd expect Fremantle and Essendon to challenge the top 4-5 this season assuming they have a good run with injuries.
Macca
Guest
I expect Brisbane and Adelaide to have significantly better seasons. Good analysis with the draw advantages given to Adelaide as well. As you mention, the Crows get the 3 lowest ranked teams twice and they do have Patrick Dangerfield in their team- they should make the top 8 with those two factors. Melbourne and North Melbourne are unpredictable teams...it will be interesting.