This time of year in the winter football codes, you’d be forgiven for thinking every team was destined for premiership glory.
All you are likely to find is optimism, from all sides, all players, all team officials.
Everyone toes the party line that the pre-season has been the best the club has ever had.
This year was better than last year’s (which was then the best ever), and better than the year before that too (which, coincidentally, had been the best before last year’s epic effort.)
That every team has their best ever pre-season every year says more about the desire of AFL clubs to attract new members than it does about any team’s chance of success.
Invariably those who make the least amount of noise pre-season tend to be find themselves featuring at the pointy end of the season.
This year has been no exception.
I have barely heard a peep from Geelong, Hawthorn, Collingwood, Carlton or West Coast so far this year, but I suspect that these sides will figure most prominently in the fight for this year’s flag.
I’d go so far as to say that these five sides are a lock for the top eight, leaving thirteen other teams to fight it out for the remaining three spots.
So at the risk of bursting the pre-season bubble of a few clubs, and sprinkling a little bit of truth in among the club propaganda, not every team will be victorious this year.
Only eight of the eighteen teams will make the finals this year. Staggering, I know.
So let’s put a line through those teams that will be non-contenders, despite all the words and press releases to the contrary declaring that 2012 will be their year.
Greater Western Sydney Giants
This one is a bit of a no-brainer. The AFL’s newest franchise doesn’t have a snow-flake’s chance in hell of being around when the finals swing into gear in September.
The AFL’s newest franchise is full of young kids and the leftovers from other clubs. The Giants lack the star power that the Gold Coast Suns were able to secure in its first year, and it will be difficult for the club to attract supporters in its inaugural season while copping a belting every week.
The Giants will struggle to get within ten goals of any other side in the competition in 2012, let alone win a match.
But we all know this to be true, so let’s move on to…
Gold Coast Suns
The Suns are another side all but assured of finishing outside finals action this year. Gold Coast surprised many in securing three victories last season, but are still at least a year or two from seriously threatening the top eight.
The Suns will be looking to edge their win tally to seven or eight this season, and from there, aim for a positive win-loss ratio in season 2013.
Other clubs should take their wins against the Suns while they can, because in 2015 and beyond, the Suns are likely to be a genuine premiership contender.
Port Adelaide Power
The Power had a woeful season in 2011, and only narrowly avoided the wooden spoon with a win against Melbourne in the final round. Expect 2012 to be marginally better, but the Power are still a long way off finals contention.
Coach Matthew Primus will have considerably better coaching support this season, and the Power have a number of talented and promising youngsters committed to the club, but eight wins this season will be a very good effort.
Brisbane Lions
The Lions have won just eleven matches in the previous two seasons, and there are very few signs to suggest that they will better this this year. The Lions lost ruckman Mitch Clark to Melbourne, and have replaced him with the previously retired Ben Hudson.
A fit and firing Jonathan Brown has the potential be a big upside for the Lions’ chances this year, but the club is short on player talent, and will be anchored toward the bottom of the AFL ladder for a few more seasons.
Richmond Tigers
A lot of football followers are bullish about the Tigers’ prospects, but I’m not convinced this will be the year Richmond will make the eight. Damien Hardwick enters his third year as coach, and Richmond is unquestionably a team on the rise, but like a number of other sides on this list, the club may have to wait another year before pushing into the finals.
Dustin Martin, Jack Riewoldt, Trent Cotchin and Brett Deledio are all very good players, but the second tier of the Richmond list will take another year or so to come on and provide the depth necessary to push Richmond into the top eight.
Maybe next year for the men from Punt Road.
You can follow Michael on Twitter @MichaelFilosi
John Seabrook
Guest
Pretty fair analysis, but I wouldn't be betting any hard earned (or any other money you may possess), on Essendon, Fremantle, St Kilda, or even, West Coast being final 8 certainties! Nor would I expect Western Bulldogs to jump 3-4 places just because they ought to. GWS' GCS, will struggle, naturally, but positions 5-11 will be interesting. Personally, I'd like to see Carlton come down a few pegs, but I'm drifting away from objectivity at an alarming rate now.
The_Wookie
Roar Guru
I have updated it, but its in another forum. Everything like that I also post to http://footybusiness.wordpress.com/annual-reports-2/afl-clubs/ as well as http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=912167
amazonfan
Roar Guru
Oh lord. Can you get any more absurd?! That is a truly ridiculous comment.
AndyMack
Guest
For some fans this is the best part of the year. Hoping beyond hope that their team will do something special and win their way to the big dance. Don't take it away from them just yet. Think about those poor lifelong Sun's fans, been dreaming of this day for er.... at least a year or so.....!!!! Would love to see at least one team make it into the finals unexpectantly, keeps it interesting.
AndyMack
Guest
Useful contribution once again Johnno......
AndyMack
Guest
MF, think if im picking the makings of a good side, I would go with a good young fit midfield, a couple of capable defenders, and a big guy up front who can kick some goals. Sounds like Brisbane Lions to me. Think Rockliff, Redden, Banfield, Merritt and Brown, with a good ruckman in Luenberger (excuse the spelling) has the makings of a good team to me. Throw in Simon Black to add some class (and experience for the young guys) to the midfield, and the side doesnt look so bad. Might go OK despite M Voss's involvement.....
amazonfan
Guest
It's an interesting system, however one of the great hopes of any supporter is to make the finals. Yes, one wants to win the flag, but one first wants to make the finals. A system like this devalues the finals. In an 18 team competition, I think that we must absolutely keep the final 8, as it actually increases the prestige of making the finals.
Nathan of Perth
Guest
The Wookie on BF had a pretty comprehensive list of declared income and it was definitely interesting reading. http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=892065 He hasn't updated with the interesting details out of the Eagles, but even so. Has to be said though; *wow* club revenue has been going up and up. I mean, yeah, global scale we're still minnows, only now approaching European middle-tiers or, for instance, US NCAA I FBS programs, but still. The rate of expansion has been startling.
The_Wookie
Roar Guru
you didnt watch most of last season then if you think we rely on Judd to win.
Ian Whitchurch
Guest
On the other hand, look back to 2006. Im not convinced the advantages are permanent, and Im also convinced the AFL will leave it's thumb on the scales - it already has to help Port, for example.
Andyc
Roar Rookie
Carlton could be the surprise sliders. Still rely alot on Judd to win close games and are at least 1/2 key position players away from being a serious threat for the flag.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
Nathan it's rapidly getting like that isn't it? Who would have thought that in this day of equalisation we'd say that, but the wealthy teams have broken away from the pack again and have definitely found a way to give themselves an advantage with the extra resources at their disposal.
Nathan of Perth
Guest
Well, I'd suggest one thing: very few of the $40m plus revenue teams will miss out, and none of the three $50m plus teams will miss out!
The Cattery
Roar Guru
Not a bad list - I'm not sure if the Swans and Saints are all that entrenched.
calippo
Roar Rookie
which teams won't play finals? GWS, SUNS, POWER, LIONS, BULLDOGS, SAINTS, BOMBERS and then 3 of out of the CROWS (play GWS and SUNS twice each) DEMONS, TIGERS and KANGAS
me too
Guest
well i'll be braver. teams that will get an early holiday are the qld teams, gws, richmond, north, port, crows, melbourne, freo (adjusting to lyon) and the bulldogs. a possible miss is essendon. either freo or the dogs could replace them. aside from that, it's cut and dry.
T
Guest
Have to agree Walt, what's the purpose of this article and where's any sort of insight? Or some form of analysis? Eagerly awaiting the top-six of 2012 article - Pies, Geelong ...
brendan
Guest
I agree with Matt under yr system the cattery would devalue the home and away.One of the thrills for each supporter is working out how many games more your team has to win to be assured of the finals so you can relax and bag yr mates from other teams.I am not entirely happy with the present final system i would prefer 1st plays 8th ,2nd and 3rd play off for a prelim spot,4th plays 5th and 6th versus 7th.The two lowest ranked losers are eliminated and the two highest winners go to the prelim.
Michael Filosi
Roar Guru
It was too easy to just run with GWS, Gold Coast and Port Adelaide as being the only sides without a realistic hope of playing finals football this year. You can probably throw Brisbane in that group as well. In nominating a fifth side that would almost certainly miss out, I was left choosing between Melbourne and Richmond, and chose the latter. I kind of hope I am wrong though. The Tigers deserve some success (whatever that means), and I rate Hardwick as a coach. Plus, they have the best team song in all the league, and I would like to hear it more often. I feel that Richmond could well be one of the best performed sides of the next five years or so, but that their upwards trend won't start till next season. Too much of a drop off in talent between their best players and the next tier at present.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
I understand it's quite a radical proposal, and will be met with no enthusiasm from anyone at any level, but looked at another way, where we know a balanced draw is an impossibility, what is wrong with saying to the top 16 teams at the end of 22 rounds, ok, whoever stays undefeated in the next four weeks is the premier, seeded on the basis of what you have done in the previous 22 games. The 22 games becomes a means of seeding the 16 teams, a seeding that is retained till the very end, so there is a massive incentive to end up near the top of the seeding because you avoid meeting the best teams until the final two weeks of the finals. One could argue that at the moment, the top teams are getting insufficient reward for finishing top, because the 4th placed team gets the exact same opportunity as making it to the grand final, indeed, they might even have a better opportunity than the 2nd and 3rd team because one or the other will have to meet the 1st placed team in the prelim, whereas the 4th placed team will not.