Do the Sydney Swans have what it takes to win the 2012 AFL Premiership?
After Sydney’s impressive five goal demolition of last year’s sixth placed Saints in only forty minutes of football last Friday night, there have been murmurings among the football world as to whether the Swans have what it takes to sneak their way to a grand final or even a premiership.
Could it be that the perennially underrated Swans are finally getting some respect?
Let’s dig a little deeper and see if they can properly contend for a coveted top four position, or whether they’ll merely fill a spot in the bottom half of the eight.
Sydney should improve, and we’ll explore that below, but the improvement will need to be sharper than average. Of the six teams that finished above them last year I’m expecting four to be better in 2012 – Collingwood, Hawthorn, West Coast and Carlton.
We might suggest that at worst, Geelong will plateau, and perhaps concede that St Kilda will go backwards. This doesn’t even account for the likes of Essendon, North, Fremantle, Richmond, Melbourne and Adelaide, who all finished eighth and below, and whose supporters will rightfully expect gains on matches won last year.
When looking at the Sydney list, the marquee player for the red and white is Adam Goodes, a once in a generation player who should be in any conversation of the AFL’s best players of the last decade. As ‘ageless’ as he seems, he is 32, and improvement can’t rightfully be expected of this indigenous superstar.
However, with a third best and fairest and fourth All-Australian award in his pocket after last season, he’s showing no signs of slowing, and the same output can be expected this year.
Other veterans like Ryan O’Keefe, Rhys Shaw and Ted Richards (three of the top five in the best and fairest) will need to maintain their high 2011 levels, while Jude Bolton, Marty Mattner and Jarrad McVeigh are part of the furniture at the SCG, and their consistency is assured.
Heath Grundy is ever-reliable in defence, Lewis Roberts-Thompson and Nick Smith do a job when called upon, and Ben McGlynn is the defensive small forward terrier that every club needs.
So, like any lower-end finalist looking to push into premiership contention, we must mine the next tier of Swans to see what gold exists underneath.
Shane Mumford is already one of the top all-round ruckmen in the league, and despite ranking first for hit-outs to advantage over the course of last season, there is nothing to suggest that he won’t improve again.
When the big man hits form he is nigh on unstoppable, winning taps, following up by throwing his weight around at ground-level, and then using his huge frame to crush the opposition with bone-jarring tackles.
At Mumford’s feet will be clearance specialist Josh Kennedy, classy tackle-machine Kieran Jack, and 2010 Rising Star Daniel Hannebery. Kennedy is still getting better, Jack will be like a new recruit after never quite recovering from an ankle injury last year, and Hannebery is expected to rise again after levelling out in 2011.
Jack, in particular, is an All-Australian-in-waiting, and any surge into the top four by the Swans is going to be very much driven by him recapturing and exceeding his 2010 form.
Mitch Morton and Tony Armstrong have been recruited from Richmond and Adelaide respectively, so if they can be fed some of the ‘Secret Sydney Sustenance’ that all players transferring to the Harbour City seem to receive, they can also make an impact up forward and down back. It must be noted that Andrejs Everitt and Matt Spangher didn’t seem to get their allotment of SSS last year, so this is not as assured as it once was.
Of the younger brigade, Alex Johnson was most promising last year in holding down a defensive post, Luke Parker may well be Jude Bolton’s younger brother such is his hardness over the ball and appetite for the contest.
Lewis Jetta has been a disappointment, but is a potential match-winner as a super-sub. Gary Rohan could be the most exciting young mid-sized forward in the league, and the talk out of the Sydney is that he is ready to go the next level.
All four of these youngsters will need to double and even triple their previous outfit if the Swans are going to make the quantum leap we’re asking, and the likes of untried Tom Mitchell and Jed Lamb will need to burst on the scene as well, but it’s time to get to the most important player in determining whether the Swans can soar with the Hawks, Magpies and Eagles.
The man in question is Sam Reid and in what was basically his first season last year (only one match in 2010), he ranked twelfth for contested marks in the AFL. This guy may only be 20 years old, but he could very well already have the best hands in the competition, and with some extra kilo’s on his slight frame, along with natural improvement, he can expect to be seen in the top five this year.
We know he can do the hard stuff that is required from a key forward, but Reid just needs to work on his other skills – getting some cheaper football on the lead, and converting his possessions into goals and assists. Kicking for goal is his weakness, and it was never more evident than his display of 2.5 against Richmond in Rd 12 last year, frequently missing from point-blank range.
He also tired towards the end of the season, getting single figure possessions in four of his last five matches. But with an extra pre-season of hard work under his belt, every football watcher in the AFL world is excited about what Sam, the younger brother of Collingwood gun Ben, is capable of.
So, after an in-depth look at where improvement can be expected, it’s time to answer the original question – can the Sydney Swans win the premiership in 2012?
The hard answer for mine is no, because I believe that too many things will need to go right for them, and wrong for the teams above them. Admittedly, some of the latter is already starting with a host of Collingwood players suffering pre-season injuries and one of West Coast’s key players in Mark LeCras undergoing a knee reconstruction.
I still think Hawthorn and Carlton, along with the aforementioned Pies, will have them covered for class, but the Swans can sneak a place in the top four, and build on this to become a more serious premiership threat in 2013.
Jarrod justins
Guest
Sydney are going to go very close, Hawthorn are going to go close too. Carlton will improve under Malthouse and Collingwood has no chance.! The only chance Collingwood will have is if they sack coach excusses Buckley now and ditch their loud mouth President Mcguire. Both are too buisy making all the noise, hoo ha and rubish they speak. Spreukers Mcguire-soft excuses Buckley. They have not looked after Collingwood supporters once what useless combination 0 glory for the pies. On the other hand If the Melbourne players really try and have a go for the first time in 5 years they should improve. This is only if any of the Demon players have any pride in themselves and care for their suffering fans. Don't count out Geelong either.
Blood Brother
Guest
As always you clowns have all written of the swans.Have a look at the ladder now they have beaten almost every top team on the ladder bar the magpies as the umps robbed them like every magpie game. In short swans will beat Hawks in G F by 16 points and in 2013 will be written off again.
Strummer Jones
Guest
My calculations are Swans on top of the ladder with 12 wins and 3 losses after Round 15, so must be a real chance at a top 2 finish. I think you've under estimated them.
Michael
Guest
No
stevo
Guest
agree top 6 most likely for the Swans....... and if injuries go their way and not so for the Blues, Pies, Cats and Hawks then the Bloods will contest the top4 with venom :) Interestingly though if two of the top from each of the top 5 teams are missing for an extended period through injury say Daisy Thomas, Pendlebury out of the Pies or Judd, Murphy out of the Blues or Stevie J, Bartel from the Cats or Buddy, Hodge from the Hawks and Goodes, Bolton from the Swans what will be the knock on effect then? On the surface once might say negligible but for me I think that is when the Swans start to gain an advantage........their style of play is so finals footy that I think they actually wold benefit tremendously in this situation But this logic is flawed because what are the odds of the top 5 teams having at least 2 key players out of their starting team for prolonged periods?
Ian Whitchurch
Guest
Redb, Im not that certain about that - I can see a GWS/Swans game involving a lot of ball locked up in stoppages for a long, long time.
Redb
Roar Guru
One thing is for certain, the Swans will start the season with a big percentage boosting win.
grarmy
Guest
The inclusion of Matt Spangher and Gary Rohan in the last month of the home and away season changed things for the Swans. Their inclusion this year as well as a fit Malceski will provide a major impetus to this team. I would also add Mike Pyke to the mix. He will be a great 2nd ruckman to Mumford and hopefully will get some game time this year. At the end of the day, your team is as good as your bottom six. For the first time in years, the Swans will have a bunch of players fighting over positions. That keeps everyone on their toes. However, the Swans will have a tough last month of the season playing all top teams. For mine, Hawthorn are going to take the silverware. Carlton is way over-rated, Collingwood has Bucks. He 'aint Malthouse.
Lachlan
Roar Guru
The mighty blood stained angels are looking good. I remember in 2003, i was 8 years old, we just fell short the the eventual premiers Brisbane, then two years later snuck into 4th spot and battled through to claim the flag, baked it up the next year and fell short, by the smallest of margins. We've got a good mix of experienced players, that can only take us so far and every good team needs the younger players to lift even more and keep knocking on the selectors door, to carry them over the line. The swans have recently struggled against Hawthorn, Carlton and Geelong (unto late last year) and for the past 5 or 6 years against Collingwood. Apart from them, West Coast finished above the swans and we beat them at Perth, the only team to do so last year. If we can overcome the Hawthorn, Carlton and Collingwood hoodoo or atleast go close, Like last year against collingwood at ANZ Stadium, there's no reason why we can't push for top 4. Ususally around this time of the year, they've got the swans odds on for the wooden spoon. Even the year we won the flag, they were telling us we would finish last. Apart from the obvious Goodes, McVeigh, LRT, O'Keefe and Bolton, the swans have a talented, young group coming through, the mature aged group and the converted superstars from other clubs. Everyone has heard a lot of Swans players, there's always a continuous change in the line-up and players are tried in different positions. Up here their away from the media and able to go on with their business as usual. Everitt and Spangher haven't had enough time to prove themselves. This year they'll have their chance to prove themselves, Spangher played well in one of the finals last year and Everitt has been dominating the Ressies along with good old Moore. In my opinion they certainly have a chance and a good one at that, we're always happy the fly under the radar and hopefully it stays that way.
It's called football
Guest
Biggest city NOT for sports attendances. Not a real sporting city. Swans only club to get decent crowds week-in, week-out. Says a lot about NRL as a sport
samwise
Guest
Yep, Reid has really got to fire to take pressure off Goodes. If Jesse White realised even 80% of his potential it would scary. Hopefully he can. Any word on his pre-season performance so far?
Nathan of Perth
Guest
Kind of interesting isn't it, high attendance gets money through gate takings AND through television rights.
S120
Guest
It's more on Pyke/White/Spangher/Seaby than Reid in my mind. Reid can't do it on his own and he needs help from other talls forward. Goodes will give great output as always and then McGlynn/Rohan/Morton/Bolton/Parker should all provide enough as smalls/mediums. What is desperately needed is another tall to stand up and take consistent contested marks and kick goals beside Reid.
Ian Whitchurch
Guest
Such TV figures will clearly prevent the AFL from getting any decent size of TV contract. Oh. Wait. People showing up at the ground gets your club money. TV viewers roll into the next TV contract, sometime, and that money gets split between all the clubs, so your club sees some of it, eventually. Which of these do you prefer ?
The Cattery
Roar Guru
And the AFL will pocket $1.25 billion over the next five years in TV rights revene, and that will represent 25% of its total revenues during that period. Keep your eyes on the horizon.
James Stewert
Guest
at the end of the day live swans matches are beat in TV ratings by crappy programs, not just beat but slaughtered. This is the biggest city in Australia - One team.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
That's a good article by Richard Hinds, written in 2010, the only trouble is that his forecast of the new TV deal for the AFL is right up there with that of Roy Masters.
Sean
Guest
So what?
D.Large
Guest
Good analysis Gucci. Jesse White going nowhere in the last 2 years has hurt them. I hope they give Jesse a long and sustained run up forward with Reid to either once and for all put a line through him or give him the chance to develop. Swans have the potentail for an X-Factor in Rohan as well over the next year or so, but i think Jetta won't make the grade.
James Stewert
Guest
For 2011 there was one AFL team in Australia’s largest city and 9 NRL teams. You are saying that 2/9ths of Sydney’s NRL crowd attendance’s is equal to the Swans. The worst thing for the Swans is when they get a decent crowd and there's no one left at home to tune in. Swans have been continually beat in TV ratings by repeats of Iron Chef Japan, repeats of Inspector Morse, Antiques Roadshow and 40 year old movies. The Swans are now spewing that GWS will take from then what niche little base of non-Mexican Sydney fans they managed to win over during the last 30 years. http://www.smh.com.au/afl/afl-news/iron-chef-takes-a-slice-out-of-the-swans-again-20100415-shkr.html