The Japanese Football Association will rue the day they decided to organise a friendly against Iceland, and will also rue Japan’s convincing 3-1 win three days ago.
Sound unlikely?
The draw for the fourth round of Asian Football Confederation World Cup qualifying will be conducted in Kuala Lumpur next Friday on March 9. The FIFA World Cup Organising Committee for Brazil 2014 announced recently that the mechanism used to seed the teams will be the March 7 FIFA Rankings.
Football Federation Australia has become increasingly aware of the significance of FIFA Rankings. The higher the ranking, the better the seeding for World Cup qualifying. Australia is comfortably ranked at the top of the Asian Football Confederation. It was mathematically impossible for them to fall to third in Asia and fall out of Pot 1 for next week’s draw. This was not the case for Japan.
Friendly games are weighted the lightest with the FIFA Ranking mechanism.
The eight best ranking scores per game for a calendar year are taken into consideration and then a weighted average per year is accumulated to determine a team’s score.
For instance, Australia increased their average from 832 to 868 by earning 715 match points by defeating Saudi Arabia in a World Cup qualifier. World Cup qualifier points are only surpassed by the World Cup Finals points and Continental Finals points in their ranking weighting.
As friendly games are weighted poorly, even in victory, the FFA was correct in choosing not to schedule an unnecessary game for the Socceroos. This stance was sensible in light of the national team’s ranking falling after a friendly victory over Malaysia last year.
Japan’s defeat of Iceland earned them 270.63 ranking points. Their surprise 1-0 loss to Uzbekistan in Nagoya overnight earned Japan 0 points. In total, the Japanese total ranking score will fall from 762 to 740.
Korea Republic defeated Uzbekistan last week in a friendly (317 points), and overnight defeated Kuwait in a World Cup qualifier (703 points), thereby increasing their total average from 714 to 751.
This will result in Korea Republic moving to the number two ranking in Asia, ahead of Japan.
The Japan Football Association is renowned for its foresight and intricate planning – their 100 year plan for football in Japan is a blueprint that the FFA should follow wholeheartedly.
However, not a single paid employee of the JFA realised that any result in a friendly against Iceland combined with an overnight Japanese defeat and Korean victory would result in Korea jumping Japan in the rankings. The omission is simply inexcusable.
The JFA, through scheduling a poorly thought-out friendly and by underestimating the importance of their game against Uzbekistan, have ensured that Korea Republic, and not Japan, will join Australia in Pot 1 of Asian qualifying next Friday.
The resulting effect is a potentially tougher draw on the road to Brazil. A 50/50 shot of drawing nemesis Australia again from Pot 1, and a 50/50 shot of drawing the most successful and only undefeated team of the third round, Uzbekistan.
Where only the top two teams progress directly to Brazil, the JFA will indeed rue the day they beat Iceland.
apaway
Roar Guru
Great article, Georgemladenov, I had no idea FIFA's ranking system was so scientific. If Australia did end up playing Lebanon in a WCQ where would your heart lie?
Ben of Phnom Penh
Guest
The game is being reviewed by FIFA. The problem wasn't the Indonesian team but the referee who sent off the Indonesian keeper in the 2nd minute and awarded Bahrain 4 penalties amongst other decisions. This is the same referee who was involved in a very dodgy match involving China and Singapore where Singapore lost 1-2 thanks to the whistle.
Nathan of Perth
Guest
Fielding an U-23s team to a World Cup Qualifier to start has an unwholesome feel to it. I wonder what the first-string Indonesian keeper did to get his 2' Red Card.
Fussball ist unser leben
Roar Guru
Yes it certainly has a smell about it ... but, interestingly, when BHR were 9-0 they had a penalty and the IDN keeper saved it. 10-0 meant BHR would definitely qualify as long as QAT lost to IRN.
Brian
Guest
No way why would we want the two teams who have caused nightmares - Iran & Iraq. I would hope for Australia Japan Uzbekistan Qatar Jordan I wonder if we are prevented from meeting Oman again?
Nathan of Perth
Guest
Interestingly Group D, our group, turned out to be one of the tightest contests. Many of the other groups had a punching bag, such as Singapore or Tajikstan. Japan's lacklustre campaign so far has been truly surprising.
Nathan of Perth
Guest
The Bahrain v Indonesia match was so very very suss.
Fussball ist unser leben
Roar Guru
The most amazing story of the final round of qualifiers must belong to the 2 matches played in Group E (IRN, QAT, BHR, IDN) To set the scene, going into the final match day, Group E 1. IRN 11 pts, +12 GD 2. QAT 9 pts, +5 GD 3. BHR 6 pts, -4 GD 4. IDN 0 pts, -16 GD Final match day was: IRN v QAT & BHR v IDN. For BHR to qualify, QAT had to lose away to IRN and BHR also had to overcome a 9 goal difference differential (i.e. BHR winning delta plus QAT's losing delta had to be 9 or more) To add to the confusion, there was a chance that QAT & BHR could end up with the same points, the same GD, the same GS, the same GA & their head-to-head were both 0-0 draws ... I guess the toss of the coin would have been used if this scenario came to pass. But, still, BHR's task seemed impossible b/c of the 9 goal difference it had to overcome. But, with 5 minutes to play the dream was reality. BHR was beating IDN 9-0 and in Tehran, IRN was beating QAT 2-1. At this stage, QAT (our WC2022 nemesis) were on their way out of Brasil 2014. Then with 4' to play - in front of 100k hostile Iranians at the intimidating Azadi Stadium - Kasola scored the equaliser and, in the blink of an eye, QAT resurrected their 2014 campaign. Poor BHR ended up winning 10-0 but to no avail - they were out.
Sadin
Guest
You guys want to have Japan in your group but don't forget Asian Cup final. I still remember that game. Australia had so many chances to score but at the end lost to Japan. From my view it's easier to score a goal in counter attack. So you guys want Japan we (UZB) don't mind to give it to you guys. I think it's easier to beat S. Korea and Iran compare to AUS and JPN. Anyway we are ready play with any team if we have to. We beat Japan with our B team (without 5-7 key player) and I think we can get at least second place in any group. Good Luck guys!
SAMURAI
Roar Pro
Anything can happen between now and the next round of qualifying, who knows which countries will be in good form.
Nathan of Perth
Guest
"5 of their best players deliberately wasted time to earn themselves yellow cards and a suspension to miss the game against Japan and free themselves for the final round. FIFA was not amused, and gave all 5 a two game suspension." Talk about gamesmanship.....
Nathan of Perth
Guest
Yeah, could be a very ... erm ... spirited group if we're both in...
Nathan of Perth
Guest
The Uzbeks would give anything, do anything to avenge their 6-0 loss in the Asian Cup. We must be wary!
Fussball ist unser leben
Roar Guru
mick It's not always so clear cut. For the 2010 WC, Uruguay finished 5th out of 10 nations after playing 18 games. They then had to play Costa Rica in a 2 leg knock out to go to finals tournament in Sth Africa. They scraped through with with a 0-1 away win and drew 1-1 at home - if CRC had scored another goal (and they had their chances) CRC would have qualified on the "away goals rule". Yet, despite just scraping into the 2010 WC Finals, URU finished in 3rd spot in the tournament - ahead of Brasil, Chile, Paraguay & Argentina, who all qualified ahead of URU in the Sth American playoffs.
Nelson
Guest
Ok, fair enough - however, perhaps I should write an article about how South Korea's friendly against Uzbekistan last week brought down their FIFA ranking? The more important issue is how many points they dropped from losing to Uzbek, not how many they lost from playing Iceland - the friendly against Iceland was very important for trying new players in the squad. If they had won last night, the Iceland game is a non-issue. Hence, they should rue last night's loss, not the Iceland game.
Maths
Guest
both games would have brought the average down, as 270.62 points is less than the 762 or so they had. Meaning the friendly would have brough the average down as well... JApan only losing to uzbekistan would have brought down the average by less. Hence they would have been better off not playing iceland Maths is not an opinion.
georgemladenov
Roar Rookie
I wouldnt mind Japan because we always seem to get a result against them. That is vital in World Cup qualifying. Since 2005, they have not beat us in 90 minutes. We won in Germany and Melbourne, drew 0-0 in Doha and Yokohama, and managed a 1-1 draw in Hanoi with 10 men. There are no penalties and extra time goals in group stage qualification. Iran is for pure revenge. I just want to beat them. Period. I also don't rate them highly in terms of consistancy, which means if we get the full 12 points against the two small pot teams, and manage a few draws against Pot 3 or Pot 2, we should automatically qualify. In the event that we draw Uzbekistan, I hope we play them first off in Tashkent again. Daunting prospect? Yes. But in their previous match against Tajikistan, 5 of their best players deliberately wasted time to earn themselves yellow cards and a suspension to miss the game against Japan and free themselves for the final round. FIFA was not amused, and gave all 5 a two game suspension.
Matt F
Roar Guru
I hope we do get Japan actually. We only need to finish top 2 and they're far more likely to take points off teams 3,4,5 then Iran are, which can only benefit our qualification chances. I really want us to avoid Uzbekistan from Pot 3 and would like to get Lebanon from pot 5. No real preference who we get from pot 4.
Fussball ist unser leben
Roar Guru
Big "thank you", georgemladenov, for adding clarity to the murky world of "FIFA rankings". I reckon you should consider undertaking a PhD thesis in the subject! And, isn't it good to know that our FFA is not the only group of incompetent Football administrators! :-) I'm already getting nervous palpitations thinking about the "what ifs" that may await AUS on 9 March. We had a dream Group in the Round 4 of the 2010 WCQs but we've had to contend with major football powerhouses - BRA & GER - in our Group at the last 2 FIFA WCs. And, UZB has improved dramatically since the last WCQs, so even our previous "Dream Group" can now be a nightmare!
Nelson
Guest
Losing to Uzbekistan brought their average down, not playing the friendly. Jeez.