Five things we have learned from the second round of the NAB Cup.
1. Israel Folau can have an impact in 2012
He may not have had an influence for an entire half of football, didn’t reach double figure possessions, and was part of a side that lost by the best part of thirteen goals, but Israel Folau showed that he will not be completely out of place at AFL level.
His third quarter showed what he was capable of, using his superior leap to launch his athletic frame at the ball for three contested marks, hitting the scoreboard and setting up for others as well.
Fox Footy commentator Dermot Brereton was at pains to point out that if he was to create the perfect footballer from scratch, Izzie’s build would be his model, so he’s got a head start that Karmichael Hunt lacked.
Folau will be used forward and in the ruck, and his appetite for the contest and willingness to tackle hard will hold him in good stead as he gradually adjusts to the pace and 360 degree nature of Australian Rules football at the elite level.
2. This season is going to be a war of attrition
While this could just as easily reference the growing pre-season injury list at each club, it is also apt in regards to what the most common game style will be in 2012.
Almost every side will be employing the venerated ‘press’, and with greater force than we’ve seen before. The highest premium is being placed on pressuring the ball-carrier, forcing them backwards and deeper into your own attacking zone.
What we’re seeing is 30-plus players in a confined area, bashing and crashing into each other in a game of extreme intensity pinball, applying hard-hitting tackles as each player knows that the coaches are waiting to drop someone for shirking an issue or taking a backward step.
The Collingwood v Melbourne match on Saturday night was the best example of it this week, but it was also highly prevalent in the two Sunday games, and we saw signs of it in round one as well.
Players will be taking courage to a whole new level in 2012, and we will all cheer, cringe and curse like never before.
3, Geelong aren’t going anywhere
Despite only bringing seven players from last year’s premiership side to Metricon Stadium on the Gold Coast, the Cats were able to comfortably account for the Suns in a soft 49 point win. Ever since the 2007 premiership, the Cats have been steadfast in attempting to rebuild while at the top, rather than waiting to fall after a few years of success.
At the completion of their first flag of this era, they offloaded four ‘depth’ players to other clubs (Callan, Gardiner, King and Playfair), while adding to the list the likes of Harry Taylor, Tom Lonergan, and the as yet untapped ruckman Dawson Simpson.
After last year’s glory, key premiership players Brad Ottens, Cameron Mooney, Darren Milburn and skipper Cameron Ling retired, but rather than finally stopping them in their tracks, it seems that the Cats merely view this as an opportunity to unleash the next batch off their production line.
Outside of Jimmy Bartel’s game high 26 possessions, the next best were Simon Hogan, Taylor Hunt, and Cameron Guthrie, who have a combined 44 AFL games between them.
Mitch Brown looked good patrolling the forward line with a match high seven marks, Stephen Motlop will play some exciting football this year and let’s not forget that premiership ‘veteran’ of 20 games, Trent West, who will continue to grow this year as the first choice ruckman.
I defy anyone to suggest that Joel Selwood will not be a premiership captain before his time is up, but it just may happen sooner than anyone expects.
4. Mark Neeld has injected some steel in the Melbourne Football Club
Neeld’s first statement as coach of the Demons was that he wanted to be ‘hard to play against’. He followed with the usual talk of hardness at the ball, uncompromising attack, not taking a backward step, etc. But then every new coach speaks from the same page of ‘contested footy’ and the like.
However, the words of the man who learned much of his craft under Mick Malthouse seemed to ring truer than most. There was little doubt that players under him can expect a fierce glare and stern words if they don’t commit at precisely the level he wants, and he won’t be afraid to send the unwilling back to the reserves.
The Dee’s were hard at the contest in their victory against the Pies, and were playing to a level that Collingwood weren’t prepared to match. While they were probably playing at an intensity closer to what they will in the season proper than the opposition, they showed that they will indeed be hard to play against this year.
5. Media overreaction is a fundamental truism
As soon as the news broke that the St Kilda v Essendon game scheduled at Wangaratta was cancelled due to the Bombers’ inability to land after catching two planes, the moral police went on the attack.
Twitter exploded with cries for heads to roll, demands of a federal enquiry, and it was only a matter of time before people wanted Essendon expelled from the league (that last one didn’t really happen, but it wouldn’t be the worst – let’s face it, if you don’t barrack for the Bombers, you hate them).
It is harder and harder for people to accept that sometimes, things just happen.
For some reason, every mistake needs to be torn down, ripped apart and over-analysed until we find out who was to blame, what were the reasons, and the punishment that will be surely delivered. Such is the frenzied appetite for answers over minor incidents, often a public execution would not seem enough.
Yes, we all feel for the people of Wangaratta. Yes, there is a smugness inherent in Essendon flying to a ground that is under three hours drive away. And yes, the Saints should always have been awarded the match points (and subsequently were).
But haven’t we all been guilty of getting caught out by the weather? For most of us, that would be many times.
So let’s just all relax a little, and spend more time focusing on what happens on the ground, rather than worrying about what doesn’t happen off it.
brendan
Guest
i agree with all your points with the proviso flags are not won in March .I think the most valid point you made is the season is going to be a war of attrition.Last years g/f emphasised this point clearly as Geelong had less injury concerns than Collingwood and duly won the flag.Modern Afl is such a tough sport to maste rit demands so much on the body .I hope both Jack Watts and Israel Folau have great seasons-what a boost for there clubs and the egalitarian spirit so inherent in aussie rules.
The Oudsman
Guest
Ian Whitchurch, You shouldn't pretend to know everything about Melbourne Football Club when clearly you (unlike myself) do not watch all of their matches. Similarly, I will not pretend to know everything about Israel Folau, or indeed the soulless franchise that is GWS, because I do not watch their matches. My original comments stand - I refuse to be sucked into the hype surrounding Folau because of three isolated incidents in an NAB Cup. Yes, it's a good sign that the team want to kick it to him. In relative terms, he is probably one of their better contested marks, so it makes sense that they will kick it to him. Is he frighteningly talented? Probably. Is he a development project? Undoubtedly. Will he have an impact in 2012, which was the point of the original author of the article, and the point I'm disputing? Unliikely. You said it as much yourself - "he'll take time... he'll go quiet". Who do you support?
Ian Whitchurch
Guest
The Oudsman, Pictures involving Jack Watts and a contested mark, or it didnt happen. He is a bruise-free player who plays bruise-free football for a bruise-free club with a bruise-free culture. You also have clearly ignored everything Folau did last year, including his bags of five and six goals in the reserves. Folau is a frighteningly talented development project. He'll take time. He'll go quiet. But he understands defensive pressure, how to lead, where to put his arms - watch the tape. Thats a man who had Sos as his personal coach - and where to put his body to create space for a mark. Yup, he doesnt always understand when it is the time to do these things, or exactly where to lead into and he doesnt have the tank. But team leaders like Coniglio spotting him up on a lead, thats a good sign as the rest of the kids will realise if you kick it to Izzy, good things happen.
The Oudsman
Guest
Ian Whitchurch, Well realised. I am familiar with a contested mark. I generally don't make a habit of calling them a 'catch', or refer to players "doing a number of them", but hey, that's just me. Must be something to do with the twenty years of football I've spent watching. I'm still not entirely sure what me being a Demon fan has to do with my response. Are you suggesting I've never seen one live? We might have a lack of contested markers in our side relative to some, but the types of Trengove, Petterd, Jamar, Frawley, Rivers, and yes, even Jack Watts have shown a propensity to be able to catch the oval round thing in their hands and fingers on numerous occasions. I'll back my side to mark more contested footy than the GWS team over the course of 2012. My point related to the ridiculous amount of hype generated around three isolated incidents in one quarter of a glorified practice match. We've seen many March heroes over the years who have failed to produce in the intense spotlight of real AFL football.
Ian Whitchurch
Guest
The Oudsman, I realise you're a Melbourne Demons fan, and the concept is therefore unfamiliar to you, but there is this thing called a "contested mark", where a player puts his body into traffic to catch the ball while under physical pressure. Izzy did a number of them in the third quarter against Hawthorn, showing that if people kick it to him when he presents, then he can catch it. Yes, he will need a couple of years to develop a better tank and better game sense ... but I wouldnt trade him for Jack Watts straight up.
The Oudsman
Guest
Folau will have an impact alright. On GWS membership. On GWS merchandise sales. On GWS crowds. On GWS TV ratings... for a while. But I significantly doubt much impact on the field. For large periods of games, he'll be starved of the ball in a forward line destined to average 6 - 8 goals per match for the season. The GWS experienced midfielders aren't the quality of the GC's in terms of first possession - they'll win a reasonable share of clearances with the bigger bodies of Ward, C Cornes and even James McDonald, but those guys plus Scully aren't exactly Leon Cameron when it comes to foot skills. Will he be released upfield? Of course. And he'll unleash a few bone crunching tackles in traffic. But (and harking back to your second point), in the hustle and bustle of congested footy, he just won't have the footy smarts to do much this year. In Neeld We Trust.
The Shoe
Guest
Agree on Melbourne and Neeld, they were impressively committed, but pre-season is different from the real thing.
Lachlan
Roar Guru
1. Agree 2. Agree 3. maybe, it's hard to tell 4. Agree 5. and agree
Paul T
Guest
Good read Cam, I agree with you on Geelong. They have lost several big name players however seem to have the depth to cover most of them (Ling being their biggest loss by far). If I am correct they are the first team in 21 years to not have a player from another team on their list (no recycled players), Ottens and Mooney were the last 2. My beloved Demons have started this pre-season well but it has been seen so many times before, Bailey seemed to be a more friendly coach, Neeld's approach as you stated seems to be a breathe of fresh air at the club and the players know they will not just get games on previous reputations or being a high draft pick.
Rob
Guest
Hard to disagree with any of those lessons. The war of attrition is going to play havoc with fantasy leagues this year more so than any other, and the resultant impacts will be much like in the real game, ever increasing in their importance. In terms of the media but I think whilst to get the most out of the season you have to accept some of it ultimately there's so much saturation that it is always going to occur now and the quality media/shows won't let themselves get down into the muck throwing as much as other outlets. Part of me is wondering if the 'Media reaction' lesson was just put in so this guy could stick the boots into Essendon and their supporters again!
Redb
Roar Guru
Good article and spot on re the media overdose on Essendon.
D.Large
Guest
The Essendon reaction or overreaction depending on your opinion is now just part of the news cycle. You can't complain that seemingly all 876 football media people will have an opinion each more ferocious then the next and still celebrate the fact that we have a dedicated football channel, AFL360 every day, papers and websites like this trying to fill space. It is what it is.
Paul
Guest
Excuse me. The day before the Saints - Bombers match, even I, hear in America, had been reading weather forecasts for Wangaratta which included heavy rain, the possibility of flooding and predictions of potential evacuations on Aussie news sites. Now, if I could predict the strong possibility of travel problems in the Wangaratta area, then there has to have been someone in the Bombers organization whose IQ is a larger number than his shoe size and able to prepare alternate transportation, just in case. That alternate travel plans were not made is beyond idiotic and arrogant. There is no excuse. And any slams directed at Essendon for their high-handed arrogance and stupidity were completely deserved!