After 62 minutes of a hard, engrossing Test between Wales and France at Millennium Stadium on Saturday, the visitors tried to spark one of their sporadic but menacing counter-attacks with the scoreboard favouring the Welsh at 13-6.
Replacement fullback Jean-Marcelin Buttin took a flat ball in midfield where rumours of space were beginning to emerge. For a second it looked like he might get in behind the Welsh.
Then came the collision.
It sounded like a clap of thunder through the microphone of referee Craig Joubert, an eyewitness nearby. It was the thud of Welsh blindside flanker Dan Lydiate closing the door in Buttin’s face with such velocity that it lifted Welsh lock Ian Evans off his feet as Buttin ricocheted into him and spilt the ball.
It was the tackle that would have been heard in North Sydney. Not since the England side of 2002-2003, has the northern hemisphere supplied a team that threatens the southern superpowers quite the way Wales do.
Little wonder that Michael Lynagh, who works as an analyst for Sky Sports in the UK, said this in the aftermath of Wales’ Grand Slam win: “Wales are certainly capable of beating Australia this summer.”
Praising northern hemisphere sides is a precarious business, but you can admire them without being either a deluded apologist or on the payroll. Lydiate is one of seven Welsh players who are, on current form, superior to their Wallaby counterparts.
It is a rather crude analytical tool, but in a hypothetical XV, five positions would be locked down by Australians and the remaining three would be decided either by a brawl or a toss of the coin. Let’s start with the positions where the Welsh have the edge.
The Welsh scrum is the finest in Europe, with tight-head Adam Jones far in advance of any Australian cornerstones. In the second row, Alun Wyn-Jones has matured into the sort of engine-room powerhouse the Wallabies thought they were getting with the return of Dan Vickerman.
At No.8, the bruising Toby Faletau grabs the jersey on the back of another hard-shouldered display against France. Radike Samo is fine in open spaces but he had an underwhelming World Cup and Wycliff Palu simply needs to string some games together.
On the blindside Lydiate, an inspirational tackling machine, is ahead of Scott Higginbotham not on talent but on what he has done with it. Higginbotham, with that imposing chassis, is not the yet dominant force his potential suggests he can be.
In the centres, there is no reason to split the partnership of Jamie Roberts and Johnathan Davies, a mix of brute power and classy touches. And they are only going to get better. Roberts is still only 25 and at 109kg gets over the gainline like no other back in world rugby. The Wallabies are still searching for their midfield.
On one wing would lurk the 110kg George North, whose surprisingly light feet and security under the high ball makes him much more than just a bulldozer.
Stephen Moore is the first of the Australian probables, at hooker, although he is not at the level which prompted Sean Fitzpatrick to crown him the world’s best a few years back.
Among the backs, the peerless Will Genia, who was wonderful against the Sharks at the weekend, commands the No.9 jersey. Mike Phillips is a brute, but no one runs the game or sees the space like Genia. Pray for his continued health, because there is a long way down until the next best.
James O’Connor occupies the No.10 spot, because room must be made for that footwork and pace. In addition, Rhys Priestland’s form has been poor at times during the Six Nations. He looks a little weary.
Digby Ioane rediscovered something close to his best form in Durban and is a certainty for the No.11 jersey, dubious tackle technique notwithstanding.
At fullback, the powerful claims of Leigh Halfpenny, admired recently by Roar colleague David Campese, must regrettably be ignored. Without Quade Cooper we must look elsewhere for a little magic and it comes in the form of Kurtley Beale – if those worrying series of injuries clear up.
Now things become particularly heated.
At openside David Pocock would be in the team by Monday but by Tuesday Sam Warburton’s all-round game would prompt a re-think. On Wednesday a coaching meeting is required to see who wants to flip a coin. They are that close.
Getting caught at the wrong side of the ruck is among the little flaws that are holding James Horwill back from the pinnacle. It is difficult to look innocuous standing at 200cm and 118kg in a bright yellow jersey. But his experience probably gives him the start ahead of Ian Evans, whose injuries have kept him back until now.
On the loose-head side of the scrum Gethin Jenkins and Benn Robinson share technical excellence at the set-piece and a scavenger’s instinct at the breakdown. But Robinson is still on the comeback from that injury and Jenkins’ extra mobility might appeal.
It is fitting that we finish on a call that could go either way.
Of course, no one can predict the state of Welsh minds and bodies when they touch down in Australia for the three June Tests. Already, an injury cloud is hanging over Warburton, who admitted his body has been “creaking” since the World Cup.
They practically jumped straight off the plane from New Zealand and into club duties and have been playing ever since.
But this Welsh side is good enough to beat the Wallabies in Australia.
Can they win twice and take the series? Perhaps we need to flip another coin. A series win might have to wait until the following year, when many of the Welsh team will return as part of the British and Irish Lions.
ScotandProud
Guest
I just don't rate Wales that much. Very pleased for them during 6N however 3 tests in SH is just a bridge too far. There's alot of welsh players who seem to have what I would call "Richie-Gray-syndrome". Maybe Richie Gray is a really good second row in all the bread and butter phases but I don't think the general public would notice they just see a massive geezer with long hair charging around - "oh, he must be good" you end up with a Mike Tindall situation where players are getting picked because they're such well known personalities. Who am I talking about? Mike Phillips is big and tough etc. etc. The slowest service in world rugby plus he always has to have a look for himself before passing. Plus Jamie Roberts and Priestland can blow hot and cold. In the France match priestland didn't seem able to set his backs free at all despite numerous opportunities. France were shocking, trying to play the same boring way Sale used to under PSA.
Ben S
Roar Guru
Doubt it to be honest. New players and all that... But thanks for sharing the history lesson.
King of the Gorgonites
Roar Guru
no he is probably more concerned about the fact they have lost their last 4 to the wallabies.
Ben S
Roar Guru
The unproven Higginbotham, the totally out of sorts Elsom, the aged Samo and the perenially out of form and/or injured Palu? Lydiate, Warburton and Faletau have been pretty excellent in nearly all of their Test matches and have proven themselves against SA, Australia, France, England, Ireland etc. I genuinely believe the Australian back row is one of the worst back rows currently in the top tier of Test rugby.
terrykidd
Roar Pro
Brett, a Wallaby Backrow picked from Pocock, Higginbotham, Palu, Elsom, and Samo is in my opinion at least the equal of the Welsh backrow and arguably is superior.
Sam
Guest
After seeing the way the welsh played during the 6 nations i would be worried if the wallabies put in an average performance.History suggests the wallabies will win every game as long as ive been alive im pretty sure the only NH sides to beat us on home soil are England and France.But having said that Wales will be no walk in the park worst case scenario for the Wallabies i would think would be a 2-1 series win.
Ben S
Roar Guru
Equally, if Wales lose 3-0 then it's more of the same 'young and building and on the rise etc.' Each side needs something tangible. All these media platitudes are boring. I think the same applies to England and SA this summer.
Jiggles
Roar Guru
Its going to be a bit of a strange series to be honest with a bit of context. if its a 3 nil win to Australia, it will be seen as more than business as usual despite the way we actually played, with the main stream media telling us that we have finally got our act together. If Australia loose a game Deans should really start to feel the pressure, and Wales will take the 'moral' victory leading into the Lions tour. The other variable is a possible loss to the Scotts in the first test of the mid year window, which is a real possibility. Either way I expect more of the same from the wales series this year, fumbling and bumbling, with no game plan, and a moment of brilliance from a young star. With the probable lions pack you mentioned in the other thread, I doubt we can win that series in 2013 with Deans in charge.
Rugby Fan
Roar Guru
Wales will be hoping Priestland and Phillips recover their World Cup form on tour. They both faded as the Six Nations progressed, the fly half in particular. Priestland was a real find just before the World Cup but, after England got at him, he seemed to lose both confidence and composure. It'll be interesting to see if Gatland puts him on goalkicking duty again, or sticks with Halfpenny. The Welsh halfbacks did enough to guide their team to a Grand Slam but the opposition were reading their attacks easily towards the back end of the tournament. Their crucial scores against England and France both came from turnover ball. With only a week between the Tests, injuries will likely affect the momentum of this series so the first match will be crucial. Teams don't usually bother flying out tour replacements in the week before the a last Test unless absolutely necessary. If Wales are very unlucky, then they might have some players out of position by the third Test. I suppose Gareth Delve could be on hand as a back row replacement. Australia will have players closer to hand but injuries can be just as disruptive for them, as we saw last year at the Cup.
stillmatic1
Guest
what do we expect brett? kpm is the same guy who constantly berates southern hemisphere rugby and in particular the "conservative" allblacks and their apparent lack of ability to select and play players who have x-factor!! dont you love his attempt at back tracking from a post though. why would he suggest that KOG's post was logical and reasonable and then assert that he doesnt actually agree with it when challenged? very strange indeed, but not unusual. at this point nobody is a world beater, and hence no reason to inflate or deflate the potential of any team, nor claim that there is some rule where the discussion cant be had about said potential. dont know where KPM sees this political correctness, because it seems that fans of s.h. rugby always lament the style of rugby from the n.h. weird to say the least
Colin N
Guest
Ironically, it was Lipman who ended up first choice openside during the 2008 Six Nations, but it was Rees who overtook him for the ill-fated 2008 tour to New Zealand three months later.
stillmatic1
Guest
and where did being adventurous ever get the wallabies, J.B? it would be a stretch to call any of the wallaby teams in the professional era adventurous under any coaching regime! so its a bit of a myth that the wallabies have been an adventurous team, certainly not in the last 20 years. may have had individuals, just like any team, who had the x-factor, but how could you say that it meant the teams philosophy was to be adventurous? and if you class the Abs and crusaders as being conservative and lacking adventure, why do they consistantly win everything and often have the best try scoring rates, point scoring rates over the past 25 years? must be something in the water eh champ.
DC of nz
Guest
I would have thought after the Loss to Ireland in the RWC that wallaby fans should be worried about another tactical ambush. Deans has had a few of those before .. Eg the Scotland loss, the 10-20 loss to NZ and the 11 losses in a row including beltings in Auckland, the abysmal 3-53 loss to the Boks, losses to England home and away, the Samoan performance.... And people still rate him !!!!
Ben S
Roar Guru
Touche.
Ben S
Roar Guru
I bet Warren Gatland is gutted about that result in 1981...
Ben S
Roar Guru
Totally agree, Colin. Couldn't have said it better myself.
Colin N
Guest
Ben, I'm still not sure as Gatland as a coach, but I admire the way he has gone about restructuring the side by bringing in younger players perhaps before they're ready, but generally sticking with them. For example, Prydie was never ready nor good enough for Test rugby when he was selected, but Cuthbert initially struggled in his first couple of games. Now he has really come into his own and looks a Test-standard winger. It's going to be a real contrast to see the Welsh backs against the Australian backs!!! It will also fun if Wales can isolate Cooper and get Roberts, North, Davies and Cuthbert running into him. Anyway, back to Gatland, and at least he has set out a clear structure, game-plan and a certain amount of professionalism to Wales, something that I believe had been lacking for a while in Wales. This is in contrast to Deans, Mallet at Italy and PSA.
Colin N
Guest
KPM, there are some teams in the French league that play/played with verve and width. In simple terms, they are/were Perpignan, Clermont, Toulouse (at times) and Montpellier. I say were because since Brunel left to coach Italy, Perpignan have been a shambles, but they played some great rugby with a primarily French squad. Personally, I would like to see Vern Cotter, the Clermont coach in charge of France. He's done wonders with them IMO and the way they destroyed Leicester earlier in the season was mightily impressive. Guy Noves is someone who is heralded, but they have a tendency to bulldoze their way to victory at times and Galthie has completely reinvented Montpellier over the past couple of years.
Scarlet
Guest
I agree, but logical thought and a rugby forum aren't necessarily comfortable bedfellows!
Ben S
Roar Guru
'Too many people are looking backwards at the historical results, where maybe the answer is just to look at current form, which will be revealed in the upcoming test series.' Absolutely. Nothing more to add is there?