This week’s trans-Tasman test throws up the same question as this time every year, as we wait for the Kiwis to get soundly belted by a solid Australian side.
Every year the media play the game of pretending that the outcome isn’t 90 percent expected. Every year the newspapers are full of articles about how this year the Kiwis have the right range of passion and experience needed to topple the mighty Kangaroos…
And yet?
We all know what the likely result is. So let’s look at it realistically.
Before I begin, full disclosure. I live and work in Australia as I have done for the past 12 years, but was born and raised in New Zealand. I back the Kiwis every time they play Australia. I am usually sorely disappointed.
I don’t expect this time to be any different, and I’ll tell you why.
Firstly, New Zealand already punches well above its weight in one sport. That sport is rugby, where New Zealand has set the standard (notwithstanding their troubles with the World Cup) for almost one hundred years. New Zealand simply does not have the population to sustain success at that level in two sports. Not when they are so similar and draw from the same skill set.
The fact that the All Blacks are so successful is a marvel. For a country like New Zealand to field such a strong team out of a population of four million is a tremendous feat. The other rugby playing nations are all much larger than New Zealand but New Zealand continues to be successful.
Rugby league in New Zealand is a second tier sport. Most schools in the country don’t field teams, and outside of South Auckland it doesn’t have a strong presence.
That’s not to say that rugby league isn’t respected and the top New Zealand players aren’t well known. It just means that the best schoolboy footy players are encouraged to play rugby.
Realistically there is little chance that New Zealand could punch above its weight in two sports without compromising both.
The second reason? New Zealand don’t know how to win at rugby league. Not consistently.
Yes, I know New Zealand are current world champions, but we all know that was a result of the New Zealand team playing out of their skin on a night when Australia was unusually sub-par, and a couple of easy mistakes cost the Kangaroos the game.
The point is New Zealand were lucky to win the World Cup, in much the same way that South Africa was lucky to win the 2007 Rugby World Cup after Australia and New Zealand were both knocked out in the quarter finals. Their win wasn’t so much a result of sporting superiority as being able to take advantage of an unexpected situation.
The Warriors demonstrate this point well. They made the grand final in three divisions last year. Three! And yet they only walked away with a title in one. No offence to the players in those competitions, but it wasn’t the one that counts.
It was the Warriors second visit to a grand final and their second loss. Compare them to the Broncos – a team who started seven years earlier. Six grand finals, six wins.
What does this say about the Warriors? It says there’s something in their culture, something in New Zealand rugby league culture, some psychological barrier that means they simply can’t close the deal.
(South Sydney fans are nodding along as they read this. They know what I’m talking about because the Rabbitohs suffer from the same issue.)
The Rugby World Cup win in 2008 backs up my point. The team was lucky to have the assistance of a master of psychological sportsmanship – assistant Coach Wayne Bennett, who simply doesn’t know how to lose the big games. What his contribution was exactly we’ll probably never know, but suffice to say he knows what to say to players to get them past that final hurdle. He knows how to coach champions.
So let’s summarise. A country where rugby league will never be the main game. A country that has a psychological barrier to winning the big games. Will this country ever be better than Australia?
No. Highly unlikely.
The miracles are amazing. They are what keeps us intrigued, they are what keeps fans passionate about their teams, they give us hope. But the word means something that is very unlikely to happen.
So will New Zealand win this Friday night? Look, they might. The side is solid. Anything can happen on the night. But I guarantee you this. If New Zealand win this one, Australia will win the next two, or three. It’s simple mathematics.
Let me finish with this point. New Zealand may have arguably the best player in the world as their captain. They may have several exciting young players who do represent an exciting future for the game.
But Australia has such depth that they can leave previous Dally M medal winners out of the squad.
Beat that, New Zealand.
Boomshanka
Guest
The Channel Nine commentary team are full of lies. Even last week they said the Origin was "live and exclusive" across Australia.
D Maaga
Guest
who can forget the comments made at last years grand final that every nrl grand final stops two nations. what a joke.
Boomshanka
Guest
Made me wonder if Ray was actually at the game.
King of the Gorgonites
Roar Guru
I loved how we had ray warren trying to tell us Eden park was sold out. More spin then k rudd
Tui
Guest
"certainly would not be surprised if there were that many kiwis playing RL in Australia. Have you not seen the NRL and toyota cup. There are plenty of them. My son plays for the u9,s and most of the players in his team and also the other teams are mainly maori and pacific islanders." an incredibly ignorant comment. I would put a lot of money on most of those players being Australian born.
Ra
Guest
Read my comments in the latest blog, they will provide explanation to the question and rationalize the wariness of the browning of league in ozistralia that will see nrl competition dominated by Polynesian countries, as rugby and league is in aotearoa nz. Maintaining strong eligibility rules that link to swearing allegiance to Australia will ensure ozistralia maintains it's global dominance of the sport, perish the thought of a kiwi side challenging the two state of origin sides three times each a year, that would only strengthen kiwi league and put pressure on the national dominating the world stage - put it this way, aotearoa nz has a population mass the same size as Sydney, just imagine a team from metropolitan Sydney playing against ozi league side - pretty much a mission impossible eh - but the brave kiwis do that on purpose, despite the odds and are actually proud to go up against it greater foe, and ask for no quarter
samsonite
Roar Rookie
samsonite
Roar Rookie
The Kiwis are on the right path to matching the Kangaroos and we could see that last night. The NZRL are really trying to invest and grow the game and by the looks they are getting results. Registered numbers were at a low point circa 2008 of 17,000 odd. With the SPARC investment this has trended upwards:- 2009 - 22,000 2010 - 25,000 2011 - 33,500
League_coach101
Roar Pro
So interesting result. As expected the Kiwi's tried hard but the Australians got their nose ahead where it counts... Was impressed with Johnson's debut - will be one to watch for the future. I think the paring of him and Marshall could reap huge dividends in the future. Funny watching Darious Boyd taking a dive like a soccer girl ;) As if i needed another reason to dislike him... Poor DCE... that must have been such a crap feeling as the clock wound down.
Emric
Guest
It will be interesting to see the NZTV ratings tomorrow with this game on both sky and prime (delayed)
Emric
Guest
Na that just means that kiwis couldn't really care a less about Aussie teams in the NRL or Super Rugby. Games where our teams are playing rate significently higher. What should worry the Warriors is their ratings are well down on last years which were rating about 180,000 to 200,000 per game FTA - TV plays some NRL games as well
samsonite
Roar Rookie
Your average NRL game with non-kiwi teams playing rates slightly less your average Super 15 game with non-kiwi teams. Take out the FTA ratings for the blues and the warriors rate alot closer - not bad for one kiwi team only playing.
Rugbug
Guest
I agree with pretty much most of what you have said in the article however it also pays to note this is only the second time ever the ANZAC test has been held in NZ. The only other time it was here the Kiwis won and that was way back in 1998! Australia don't need any more leg up but playing at home for the last 13 years surely has helped get them over the line in some of the closer ANZAC matches The last two ANZAC test matches have been decided by 10 and 4 points respectively in Australias favour and both games haveing been played in Australia. You can not discount home ground advantage in one off matches like this. Your right in regards to the fact Australia will generally win the following two to three matches after a Kiwis win however in recent years the Kiwis have been able to win the games that actually matter more often than not.
clipper
Guest
Steve, thanks for informing us on the reality of the situation - I remember that league was indeed strong in the period you mention, just before Rugby became professional
Emric
Guest
I live in Australia and play rugby - most of my team are true blue Aussies.
Ra
Guest
If you let stats get in your way you will never get ahead. The odds didn't.bother the Spartans, they don't bother the kiwis - bring it on !
matthew
Guest
Meh. The kangaroos dont register on the world scale like the All Blacks do. I dont think Kiwis are overly fussed.
Sylvester
Guest
There is some truth to this article. The Kiwis have struggled to beat conistently beat the Aussies. However, their success in games that matter in the past few years is telling. It shows they can key games and helps breaks down the hoodoo for the new generation of players. The number of Kiwi eligible players in the NRL is growing exponentially. I'd love to know how many are in the Toyota Cup. Player depth is only piece to the puzzle. It's about having the best players. England has more union players than NZ, but are not a better team. The Wallabies have fewer players than the ABs, but are more than competitive.
Queensland's Game is Rugby League
Guest
"IN 2006 there were 35K Aussie RL adult male players but declining…" There are 163,000 registered rugby league players in Australia. 72,406 of them fall within the 6-12 age group. That leaves 90,594 who are over 13. I don't know the amount between 13-18, but I find it hard to believe there are only 35k men playing the game. http://www.rugbyleague.com.au/nrl/2011_state_of_the_game.pdf
Emric
Guest
Wow just wow overstating the facts a little Blues TV Ratings (NZ) Blues V Crusaders - 234,630 Chiefs V Blues - 194,770 Blues V Hurricanes - 387,070 Rebels V Blues - 75,550 Blues V Sharks - 312,970 2 blues games did not get tv ratings as they were played at 2AM in South Africa Average = 240,998 Attendance Average = 24,831 Warriors TV Ratings (NZ) Warriors V Sea Eagles - 106,210 Eels V Warriors - 133,920 Warriors V Bulldogs - 177,850 Warriors V Titans - 111,390 Warriors V Roosters - 91,520 Raiders V Warriors - 121,380 Warriors V Rabbitohs - 106,210 Attendance Average = 20,715 Average = 121,211 Sorry guys the blues are playing badly and still well in control of Auckland's Rugby Scene. You don't want to see how badly the NRL is getting beaten in the TV ratings and attendance figures on Sky sport.