- Video
-
Club Roar
Captured a great grassroots sporting moment? We want to see it!Content Collections
The Roar Community
- Join
- Login
This week’s trans-Tasman test throws up the same question as this time every year, as we wait for the Kiwis to get soundly belted by a solid Australian side.
Every year the media play the game of pretending that the outcome isn’t 90 percent expected. Every year the newspapers are full of articles about how this year the Kiwis have the right range of passion and experience needed to topple the mighty Kangaroos…
And yet?
We all know what the likely result is. So let’s look at it realistically.
Before I begin, full disclosure. I live and work in Australia as I have done for the past 12 years, but was born and raised in New Zealand. I back the Kiwis every time they play Australia. I am usually sorely disappointed.
I don’t expect this time to be any different, and I’ll tell you why.
Firstly, New Zealand already punches well above its weight in one sport. That sport is rugby, where New Zealand has set the standard (notwithstanding their troubles with the World Cup) for almost one hundred years. New Zealand simply does not have the population to sustain success at that level in two sports. Not when they are so similar and draw from the same skill set.
The fact that the All Blacks are so successful is a marvel. For a country like New Zealand to field such a strong team out of a population of four million is a tremendous feat. The other rugby playing nations are all much larger than New Zealand but New Zealand continues to be successful.
Rugby league in New Zealand is a second tier sport. Most schools in the country don’t field teams, and outside of South Auckland it doesn’t have a strong presence.
That’s not to say that rugby league isn’t respected and the top New Zealand players aren’t well known. It just means that the best schoolboy footy players are encouraged to play rugby.
Realistically there is little chance that New Zealand could punch above its weight in two sports without compromising both.
The second reason? New Zealand don’t know how to win at rugby league. Not consistently.
Yes, I know New Zealand are current world champions, but we all know that was a result of the New Zealand team playing out of their skin on a night when Australia was unusually sub-par, and a couple of easy mistakes cost the Kangaroos the game.
The point is New Zealand were lucky to win the World Cup, in much the same way that South Africa was lucky to win the 2007 Rugby World Cup after Australia and New Zealand were both knocked out in the quarter finals. Their win wasn’t so much a result of sporting superiority as being able to take advantage of an unexpected situation.
The Warriors demonstrate this point well. They made the grand final in three divisions last year. Three! And yet they only walked away with a title in one. No offence to the players in those competitions, but it wasn’t the one that counts.
It was the Warriors second visit to a grand final and their second loss. Compare them to the Broncos – a team who started seven years earlier. Six grand finals, six wins.
What does this say about the Warriors? It says there’s something in their culture, something in New Zealand rugby league culture, some psychological barrier that means they simply can’t close the deal.
(South Sydney fans are nodding along as they read this. They know what I’m talking about because the Rabbitohs suffer from the same issue.)
The Rugby World Cup win in 2008 backs up my point. The team was lucky to have the assistance of a master of psychological sportsmanship – assistant Coach Wayne Bennett, who simply doesn’t know how to lose the big games. What his contribution was exactly we’ll probably never know, but suffice to say he knows what to say to players to get them past that final hurdle. He knows how to coach champions.
So let’s summarise. A country where rugby league will never be the main game. A country that has a psychological barrier to winning the big games. Will this country ever be better than Australia?
No. Highly unlikely.
The miracles are amazing. They are what keeps us intrigued, they are what keeps fans passionate about their teams, they give us hope. But the word means something that is very unlikely to happen.
So will New Zealand win this Friday night? Look, they might. The side is solid. Anything can happen on the night. But I guarantee you this. If New Zealand win this one, Australia will win the next two, or three. It’s simple mathematics.
Let me finish with this point. New Zealand may have arguably the best player in the world as their captain. They may have several exciting young players who do represent an exciting future for the game.
But Australia has such depth that they can leave previous Dally M medal winners out of the squad.
Beat that, New Zealand.
Reckon you can pick the winning team? Build your own dream team with Draftstars daily fantasy and compete on any match. For great odds on the NRL head on over to PlayUp. Imagine what you could be buying instead. Set a deposit limit.