There were a few surprises in the Blues side named over the weekend, but it’s still a very strong team and one that I think can do the job on the Maroons on Wednesday night.
The big shock for me was that Watmough didn’t make the squad. He has been one of the standout players over the first 10 rounds and his omission just blew me away.
I know there were injury concerns around him, but from what I’ve heard, he seems to be fine to play on the weekend and NSW could use his tough, big game intensity.
The other player I thought deserved a spot was Tariq Sims, who should have been picked on the bench. He showed in the City-Country match that he can be very explosive with and without the ball.
I’m very happy with Tony Williams’ selection.
With the 10 interchanges, this gives Ricky the ability to get him on for 10 or 15 minutes – have a big impact (literally) – then get him off again.
He can do this because both Bird and Glenn Stuart are 80 minute players. I’ve always liked Greg Bird as a player, though I would have picked him in the second row and had Stuart at lock.
While on the forwards, congratulations to Jamie Buhrer on his elevation. It must be a great thrill for the kid, who has done a superb job coming off the bench for the Sea Eagles.
The backs largely picked themselves, except for Jennings, who was obviously very lucky to be in the side.
Stuart has shown a heap of loyalty to the players, and I understand that from a coaches point of view.
But this is a massive game for Jeninngs’ career. It’s probably going to dictate how he plays for the rest of the season, especially as his club side, Penrith, won without him on the weekend.
As for Jarryd Hayne, I wouldn’t have picked him at all. His selection, based on his form this year, is just not warranted.
Instead, I would have gone for the two Morris boys Josh and Brett, both of whom are big and strong and would relish playing together in the Origin cauldron.
Hayne was very, very lucky.
Todd Carney has been the in-form five-eight this season and Cronulla have been playing great football on the back of his direction. I’ve been especially impressed with his control on the field. He seems to have really matured as a player.
His combination with Mitchell Pearce will be crucial.
Luckily, both guys have played well together before and they have a lot of respect for each other’s game. They’ve always gotten on well personally, which helps.
Where I differ from many pundits is that I don’t think there will be lot of points scored in Game One.
If you look at all the games over Origin history, there really hasn’t been too much in most of them. Defence, rather than attack, is generally is the key to winning these games.
It’s going to be brutal, it’s going to have that physicality. And these guys are going to go hard.
It could blow up like a great Origin game from yesteryear.
Go the Blues!
Gary ‘Wiz’ Freeman is one of the great halfbacks in New Zealand rugby league history. Now an outspoken and popular media personality, he joins The Roar as an expert rugby league columnist.
BLaze
Guest
well said mate im with you 100%.
kos1nsk1
Guest
Hey Undies - The Blues will be taking a bath with you.
Dom
Guest
B Morris should be there. Hayne to centres, B Morris to wing and Jennings far far away from the sky blue!!!
Jeff McGinn
Guest
I saw on preview of todays match that Tariq Sim was called up for origin duty, to cover possibity that Gallen would not overcome his injury, -- In a horrible piece of bad luck Tariq rebroke his leg in the second half of the game.. what does a bloke have to do to get an origin game..--- Hope Tariq can overcome this latest setback, he is a future star of our game!. I am beginning to think that Ricky Stewart must have 'kicked a Gypsy'.. every time he chooses a player with ability, they get a season ending injury, or could it be that they are just trying to avoid being part of a NSW team....
doubledutch
Roar Pro
no chance!
Tommygun
Guest
QLD just edge NSW on the bench?! The QLD bench all played for Australia last test bar Gillett who was 18th man. If Gillett was from NSW there would be no talk about Buhrer because Gillett would have been selected in a heartbeat. QLD bench is so far superior it's not funny. Other than that pretty decent analysis, GO THE BLUES!!
ceebow
Guest
Im sick of hearing this constant dribble about Hayne and Jennings. there are so many ppl that contradict themselves by saying that we need to pick and stick with the same team, but then they say we shouldnt pick Jennings and Hyane cause of there form. How ppl think that a player will perform at origin because they have form but lack origin experience baffles me. Hayne and Jennings are proven performers and just like maroons become different players when pulling on the blues jersey and i can guarantee these critics will be eating there words. players like hodges had shocking games coming into origin but qld stuck with them and look at them now. Our players need to be shown some faith by Sticky and i believe its the lack of faith in our players that have played a part in our demise. Can the critics shut up and wait untill game one to pass judgment from there comfortable couches and keyboards before critisicing the players that are out there actually trying to bring the shield back to nsw the aus rugby league birth place.
Zach.WB
Roar Rookie
Most points are extremely valid, but I still cannot see the Blues winning the first game despite wanting them too! The Maroons just have a winning aura, and if the Blues do win the first game, QLD will somehow pull through and take the series. The comments on Jarryd Hayne are more than fair, and we should just be happy he isn't at fullback, because his defence is poor and when his club side gets on the back foot, currently always, he seems to get lazy and lose the faith, which is not origin worthy. The Morris brothers would be exceptional, and rarely let their club teams down, and Brett should be in place of Hayne. The omission of Watmough is surprising, but I feel Tariq Sims would also have offered much to the squad. Many disregard the City vs Country match, but his performance was outstanding, and he would offer some 'grunt' everyone seems to want in Origin football and the Maroons have such a monstrous bench, Taylor, Gillet, Hannant and Shillington, that Tariq may have helped to counter. Only time will tell...
Big_Marn2000
Roar Pro
If you don't care then why are you reading and commenting on an article that is entirely about State of Origin? Peanut
Mango Jack
Guest
Your points are mostly valid, lowdown, but they nearly all applied to last year's series and that, until the opening phase of Game 3, was fairly close. But I think you are right - in the end Qld will have the confidence and class to take the series. Their biggest danger may be over-confidence. I heard their team naming "ceremony", with music blaring, etc. Sounded more like rock stars or boxers. Word is, they are living large in a resort in Melbourne. Could this be their downfall?
eagleJack
Guest
As much as I love stats it doesn't take into account the "10 foot taller" phenomenon that hits the Qlders when they pull on that Maroon jersey. But it's good to see us on the right side of the ledger of a couple of stats going into the match. We are a definite chance this year and Mal would be on alert for the first time in years.
Ken
Guest
Agree on Hayne, if I were I an Eels fan I'd find his apparent effort levels incredibly frustrating, but on a rep stage the bloke is proven elite level performer and I'd pick him. On the other hand I think you're being way over-harsh on B Morris, he's also a proven strike weapon and is in great form. He also works very hard and gets good metres on sets started deep, his speed is also a nice thing to have on the end of a backline. For all that you're going to paint him as atrocious because of a single communication error, which was admittedly embarrassing but hardly indicative of what he offers a team Worst player of last years series for mine = Pearce - he's actually starting to look like he deserves to be there this year though so let's hope he goes some way to redeeming himself.
Mac
Guest
I agree wiz that it will most likely be a low scoring game like most origin matches are. NSW have the team to win I just hope they don't come out full of nerves because there are alot of players selected that have very good reasons to be feeling the pressure...I'm all for the team that was chosen apart from maybe Buhrer and Creagh and this series WILL BE VERY CLOSE i have no doubt.. ,
spek
Guest
spot on analysis: NSW have the better form going into the game no doubt. these stats prove the point: NSW players have scored more tries (44-39), made more line breaks (58-57), gained more metres, thrown more offloads (175-150) and broken more tackles (465-381) than Queenslanders - and they have done it by collectively playing 15 fewer NRL games. The NSW backline has scored 32 tries in 63 games, while Queensland's star backs have amassed just 22 tries in 67 appearances. the blues forwards averaging 121.3 metres gained per game this year as opposed to Queensland's 103.3m. NSW side should win game one: simple as that.
Dicko
Guest
I completely understand the question mark over Jarryd Hayne. Where I will defend him is that he made his name on the representation stage - playing for Fiji and then SOO. He has proven himself at this level regardless of club form. What I don't understand is this call for the other Morris kiddie - has everyone forgotten his performance in SOO last year? I really like him at club level, but I reckon he could be seen as the worst player of last years series. I agree with comments about Jennings. Game 1 could become the defining moment of his career! Let's hope he fires - for all our sakes
soapit
Guest
love the title. is archer reffing wednesday?
Phil
Guest
Looking closely at the stats for 2012 and previous Origins, NSW are a very good chance of winning. There are only two positions on the field where Qld clearly outclass us, both on current form and previous performances. They are the centres and half-back. Our back three are international standard, our five-eighth is one of the most in-form players in the comp, our back-row and one of our props are in another league to Qld's. Position by position: - Full-back: Stewart vs Slater. Slater's form has cooled in recent weeks, while Stewart is just hitting his straps. Slater still just in front here. - Wings: Uate & Hayne vs Boyd & Tate - Uate and Hayne are both proven international and Origin players, and although Hayne's form is not as good as in previous years, neither is Boyd's. I give this position to NSW. - Centres: Jennings & Morris vs Inglis & Hodges: Jennings is a proven performer, and Morris is in some sensational form. But a fully-fit Hodges and Inglis are ahead here by a long way. - Halves: Carney & Pearce vs Thurston & Cronk: Carney & Pearce are a proven combination, and both are in great form, with Pearce's confidence growing by the week. Thurston has been hot and cold all year at five-eighth, but he is a class act, and he and Cronk have played and won a test match together. Just give this position to Qld. - Props: Gallen & Tamou vs Petero & Scott: Gallen is the best forward, and arguably the best player, in the comp at the moment. Tamou is in some good form & a Test player, while Petero's career is winding down. Scott is a proven performer and does his job week in, week out. But due to the Gallen & Petero factors, NSW are well ahead in the props. - Hooker: Farah vs Smith: Well Cameron Smith is an all-round champion of rugby league, arguably the best hooker in the modern game. But Farah is in some great form, and his numbers this year stack up very nicely against Smith. On experience, you'd just have to give this crucial position to Qld. - Back-row: Stewart, Lewis & Bird vs Thaiday, Myles & Harrison: NSW have the edge in the back-row. Thaiday is the only international standard player in the Qld backrow, while the Blues have 2, and a proven Origin performer in Bird. Bench: Creagh, Buhrer, Merrin & Williams vs Gillett, Taylor, Hannant & Shillington: Creagh is a bizarre selection, not warranted on form. Qld have a different approach, with two props on the bench, while Gallen is likely to play 80 minutes up front for NSW. Buhrer and Gillett are at about the same stage in their careers at present, and will play the utility role. Taylor and Williams largely cancel each other out, although Williams is coming off a long break. Due to the selection of Creagh, I believe Qld will just have the edge off the bench. Tip: If every player is at the top of their game, NSW have a superior side overall. Look out for Qld's proven Origin and club combinations. I'm tipping NSW by 7.
Stu
Guest
Wiz, when are you getting back on TV? Get a petition started and i'll sign it.
Tony Archers Maroon Underwear
Guest
Sure Bird is an 80min player its just that for about twenty of the 80mins hes not very good. I hope NSW can beat the Qld/News Ltd salary rorters but sadly ill be washing my hair that night.
eagleJack
Guest
No doubt the odds are stacked up against NSW. But some selection blunders on behalf of the Maroons have evened things up a little. Not much but enough to make things very, very interesting. Petero - was dead on his feet after a whopping 21mins against Manly. Will be lucky to pump out 15mins in Origin I. Fantastic leadership qualities and a great bloke but I expect close to zero impact from the big man. Harrison - not a bad player but they left out one of the games great backrowers in Parker when selecting him. Parker is a constant threat in attack and has a better workrate than Harrison. Loyalty is commendable but not when leaving out a superior player. Boyd - well what can you say? If Hayne and Jennings, who are both still setting up tries and scoring them, are considered out of form then Boyd can consider himself lucky he isn't a racehorse or he would have been put out to pasture. Done less than nothing all year and you have to question his mental state. Uate will be licking his lips over this match-up.